Housing Data falls in March. Jobless claims down. US Dollar rises in Forex Trading.

U.S. housing starts and building permits fell while housing completions increased in the month of March according to data released by the Commerce Department on new residential construction. Housing Starts fell by 10.8 percent in March to a 250150tendollarsfree1seasonally adjusted annual rate of 572,000. March’s total is down 48.4 percent compared with March of 2008. The decline in housing starts was below the 540,000 annual rate the market forecasts were expecting for the month.

Building permits statistics, used as a predictor of future construction, showed a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 513,000 permits in March. This was a decrease of 9.0 percent compared to February and a 45.0 percent drop from March of 2008 level. The March data in building permits was also below the market forecasts that were expecting permits to number approximately 549,000 for the month.

Housing Completions for March increased when compared to February as completions advanced to an annual rate of 824,000 privately-owned housing completions. This is an increase of 3.5 percent when compared to February’s completion totals while still 30.9 percent below the March 2008 level.

Weekly jobless claims fall by 53,000.

Weekly U.S. jobless claims declined in the week that ended on April 11th according to a separate report by the U.S. Labor Department today. Jobless claims fell by 53,000 workers to a total of 610,000 unemployed workers. A 4-week moving average fell by 8,500 workers from the prior week to 651,000.

Meanwhile, workers continuing claims for unemployment benefits for the week ending April 4th increased by 172,000 workers while a four week moving average of continuing claims grew by 146,000 workers to 5,796,000 workers.

US Dollar gains in forex trading today.

The U.S. dollar has been stronger in forex trading today against the other major currencies. The euro, British pound, Swiss franc, Australian dollar, Japanese yen, Canadian dollar and New Zealand dollar have all declined versus the American currency so far today.

The EUR/USD pair has declined slightly from today’s opening rate of 1.3218 dollars at 00:00GMT to trading to 1.3193 at 1:05 pm EST in the afternoon of the U.S. trading session according to currency data by Oanda.

The GBP/USD has declined from today’s opening level at 1.5015 to trading today at 1.4921 after increasing for the past three days in a row.

The US dollar is gaining slightly today against the yen and looking to increase for the second straight day versus the Japanese currency. The USD/JPY opened today at 99.14 and has advanced to trading at 99.25.

The dollar is looking to make a third straight gain today versus the Swiss franc as the USD/CHF has gone from the 1.1434 opening rate to trading at 1.1467.

The dollar has increased today against the Canadian loonie after falling the last three days in a row. The USD/CAD has advanced to trading around the 1.2103 level today after opening at 1.2037.

The Australian Aussie has fallen versus the US dollar today as the AUD/USD has declined to the 0.7170 level after opening at 0.7276. The New Zealand kiwi has also declined against the dollar as the NZD/USD has reached the 0.5703 level today after opening the day at 0.5774.

NZD/USD Chart – The New Zealand Dollar falling against the US Dollar today. The NZD is on its way to declining against the USD for the second straight week after a run of five consecutive weekly gains.

4-16nzdusd

Crude Daily Commentary for 4.16.09

By Fast Brokers

Crude futures continue to drag along our 1st tier uptrend line as investors debate trends and whether to leave $50/bbl in the past.  It seems investors could reach a decision soon with our 1st and 2nd tier uptrend and downtrend lines reaching their respective inflection points.  We notice the same pattern of inflection in the EUR/USD, meaning the markets could get very volatile at the end of the week.  The data from the U.S. over the past 48 hours continues to send mixed signals regarding the state of the American economy.  The confusion is reflected in crude futures with investors unsure whether to bank on a recovery.  However, it feels as if game changing news will come soon with the crude futures growing tired of consolidation.  Weekly Crude Oil Inventories came in uncomfortably above expectations yesterday.  In fact, the number was eye-popping and it’s shocking the crude futures held up so well.  The startling rise in inventories makes us wary of overall consumer sentiment.  On the other hand, the boost in supply could be due to the exponential increase in crude imports from Brazil and Russia.  Either way, the resilience in the futures further exemplifies the fact that investors are holding onto the belief that an economic recovery is underway.  We expect crude futures to continue their strong positive correlation with U.S. equities for the time being.  Fundamentally, we maintain our resistances of $50.39/bbl, $51.03/bbl, $51.59/bbl, $52.02/bbl, and $52.49/bbl.  To the downside, we hold our supports of $49.81/bbl, $49.28/bbl, $48.87/bbl, $48.37/bbl, and $47.79/bbl.  Crude futures are presently trading at $50.29/bbl.

Market Commentary provided by Fast Brokers.

Disclaimer: FastBrokers’ market commentary is provided for information purposes only and under no circumstances should be regardedneither as an investment advice nor as a solicitation or an offer to sell/buy any financial product. FastBrokers assumes no responsibility or liability from gains or losses incurred by the information herein contained.

Risk Disclosure: There is a substantial risk of loss in trading futures and foreign exchange. Please carefully review all risk disclosure documents before opening an account as these financial instruments are not appropriate for all investors.

EUR/USD Daily Commentary for 4.16.09

By Fast Brokers

The EUR/USD is finally finding that stabilization we were anticipating with the EUR/GBP leaping on oversold conditions.  Despite all of the uncertainty swirling in the FX community concerning the ECB’s future monetary policy, the EU’s CPI data met analyst predictions while Industrial Production declined slightly less than expected.  Therefore, investors finally have some positive news to feed off of in a fairly quiet week news-wise for the EU.  The EUR/USD is righting itself just above April lows, preventing a heightened selloff for the time being.  However, there is little evidence to support the argument for a lasting recovery in the currency pair.  The EUR/USD is still trading below our 1st tier uptrend line with inflection points on the way.  Speaking of inflection points, the pending collision of our 1st and 2nd tier uptrend and downtrend lines should yield significant volatility.  Therefore, we could experience a breakup of the consolidation taking place.  Despite the encouraging data surfacing from the EU today, the investor uncertainty surrounding the ECB’s future monetary policy is clearly placing downward pressure on the EUR/USD.  If the currency pair should fall beneath April lows we could see the selloff pickup pace towards the highly psychological 1.30 area.  Fundamentally, we maintain our supports of 1.3192, 1.3162, and 1.3126 with fresh supports of 1.3091 and 1.3050.  To the topside, our 1.3223 and 1.3271 supports turn resistance while we hold our resistances of 1.3323, 1.3351, and 1.3375.  The 1.35 area acts as a psychological barrier with 1.30 serving as a key psychological cushion.  The EUR/USD is currently exchanging at 1.3195.

Market Commentary provided by Fast Brokers.

Disclaimer: FastBrokers’ market commentary is provided for information purposes only and under no circumstances should be regardedneither as an investment advice nor as a solicitation or an offer to sell/buy any financial product. FastBrokers assumes no responsibility or liability from gains or losses incurred by the information herein contained.

Risk Disclosure: There is a substantial risk of loss in trading futures and foreign exchange. Please carefully review all risk disclosure documents before opening an account as these financial instruments are not appropriate for all investors.

GBP/USD Daily Commentary for 4.16.09

By Fast Brokers

The Cable has come well-off its highs on relatively light volume in what we view as healthy profit taking.  As expected, the Cable is having some trouble leaving behind the highly psychological 1.50 level.  The weakness of the Pound is reflected in the EUR/GBP finally finding a bottom.  The present downturn in the GBP/USD was triggered by no discernable news/data, which leads us to our conclusion of fundamental profit-taking.  Although the Cable has dipped below our 2nd tier uptrend line and April 6 highs in the process, the currency pair managed to stabilize above April 15 lows.  As a result, a return to the topside could come quickly.  Hence, we maintain our positive stance on the GBP/USD until further notice.  Britain won’t release any economic data of significance this week, meaning the GBP/USD should follow a positive correlation with U.S. equities while maintaining relative strength due to Britain’s upbeat data over the past month.  Fundamentally, our 1.4946 and 1.4988 supports turn resistance while we maintain our resistances of 1.5028, 1.5080, and 1.5121.  The 1.50 level remains a key psychological barrier while 1.45 serves as a psychological cushion.  To the downside, we maintain our supports of 1.4883, 1.4834 and 1.4770 with fresh supports of 1.4730 and 1.4655.   The GBP/USD is currently exchanging at 1.4889.

Market Commentary provided by Fast Brokers.

Disclaimer: FastBrokers’ market commentary is provided for information purposes only and under no circumstances should be regardedneither as an investment advice nor as a solicitation or an offer to sell/buy any financial product. FastBrokers assumes no responsibility or liability from gains or losses incurred by the information herein contained.

Risk Disclosure: There is a substantial risk of loss in trading futures and foreign exchange. Please carefully review all risk disclosure documents before opening an account as these financial instruments are not appropriate for all investors.

USD/JPY Daily Commentary for 4.16.09

By Fast Brokers

The USD/JPY continued its slight selloff despite a late session rally in U.S. equities.  We still don’t feel the present pullback in the USD/JPY is backbreaking, yet.  The currency pair has our 2nd tier uptrend line to rely on for the time being.  However, as we stated before, the uptrend is extremely young compared to the downtrend, giving the downside precedence.  On the other hand, everybody knew the crucial 100 level would be a tedious obstacle to overcome.  We continue to witness a battle of the economies.  The Japanese economy deteriorated to such a point that the Yen lost its luster as a safe haven.  Then again, the Dollar has joined the party via quantitative easing, resulting in overall weakness against other major Dollar pairs and in succession stalling a possible breakout in the USD/JPY.  Regardless, the USD/JPY should yield to its positive correlation with U.S. equities should the S&P futures have a breakout of their own past February highs.  The economic data from the U.S. is mixed while Japanese data remains highly negative for the most part.  Therefore, there are more than enough reasons to believe the uptrend in the USD/JPY can hold itself together.  On the other hand, we’ve still got those three downtrend lines bearing down on price.  Fundamentally, our 99.79 support turns resistance while we maintain our resistances of 100.28, 100.71, 101.44, and 101.98.  To the downside, we hold our supports of 99.06, 98.16, 97.59, and 97.11 with fresh bottom-end of 96.33.  The USD/JPY is currently exchanging at 98.99.

Market Commentary provided by Fast Brokers.

Disclaimer: FastBrokers’ market commentary is provided for information purposes only and under no circumstances should be regardedneither as an investment advice nor as a solicitation or an offer to sell/buy any financial product. FastBrokers assumes no responsibility or liability from gains or losses incurred by the information herein contained.

Risk Disclosure: There is a substantial risk of loss in trading futures and foreign exchange. Please carefully review all risk disclosure documents before opening an account as these financial instruments are not appropriate for all investors.

US Housing Data May Spur Further Equity Gains, USD Losses

Source: ForexYard

As the market tests various support and resistance levels, traders are discovering a negative correlation between equities and the value of the USD. Each time there is a rally in the equities market, the USD takes moderate losses. This is likely due to investors pulling their money out of forex trading and into the stock market. With the release of U.S. Building Permits today at 12:30 GMT, the equity market may be affected. Look for the impact this has on the USD throughout today’s trading.

Economic News

USD – EUR/USD Fails to Break Significant Resistance Level

Trading of the EUR/USD was extremely volatile today as the pair failed to break a significant resistance level. The Dollar was heavily sold during the Japanese trading session, but two hours into the European session the pair fell short of the significant 1.3300 level and proceeded to fall 1.1%. The pair made a slight recovery and range trading was experienced for the remainder of the day. The EUR/USD closed down at 1.3227 from 1.3245. Against the other major pairs, the Dollar closed up against the Yen at 99.24 from 98.38, while the Dollar lost ground against the Pound to end the day at 1.4997 from 1.4872.

Much of the currency market has been driven by the recent rally in global equity markets. Yesterday was no different. Gains in U.S. equities helped to drive investors into more risky, higher yielding currencies. This has hurt the U.S. Dollar against such currencies as the Australian and New Zealand Dollars.

Due out today are economic indicators that could help to create more volatility in the Dollar’s crosses. U.S. Building Permits, which is considered to be an excellent gauge of future economic activity, is due to be released today at 12:30 GMT, along with the U.S. weekly unemployment claims report. Don’t expect these numbers to shock the market with positive news. After these releases, the Dollar could end the day down against the EUR, testing the 1.3300 level once again.

EUR – ECB Member Discusses Interest Rate Cut

The EUR is experiencing a decline against most currencies as many market participants are predicating future quantitative easing measures by the European Central Bank (ECB). Comments made yesterday by ECB governor Axel Weber have led traders to believe a future interest rate cut will be made during the ECB’s next policy meeting in May. However, the market is also expecting non-traditional policy moves to ease credit conditions in Europe. This could have a negative effect on the European currency, or it could bolster confidence in the EUR’s future.

Yesterday the EUR finished lower against the Pound at 0.8816 from 0.8902, while the EUR finished the day against the Yen at 131.27 from 131.34.

Weber stressed that a floor should be set for European interest rates at 1.00%. Rates currently stand at 1.25%. If progress is not made to turn around Europe’s economy, then we are likely to see similar purchases of government securities by the ECB as those of its American counterpart, the Federal Reserve.

Today’s trading may see the EUR moved by two key data releases; year-on-year CPI and monthly industrial production figures. While many feel inflation has been all but drowned out by media reports of deflationary pressures, some believe that a higher than expected rate of inflation may signal a bit of improvement in the European economy. Monthly industrial production numbers are expected to show a bit of a turnaround. We could see the EUR recover against the Pound to the 0.8850 level.

JPY – Yen Falls from 2-Week Highs

The Yen declined against the Dollar yesterday as reduced risk sentiment had traders aggressively pursuing higher yielding currencies throughout the day. The Japanese currency came off a two-week high against both the Dollar and the EUR. Earlier in the day, traders sold off the Yen in anticipation of better than expected U.S. economic data. Those gains held throughout the day as the numbers beat market estimates. In early morning trading, the USD/JPY was trading at 98.95 while the EUR/JPY was at 130.67.

With little data to come from the Japanese economy this week, we may expect the Yen to continue to trade based on risk sentiment in the market and leading indicators from other economies. Traders are advised to follow the trends of U.S. equity markets as there appears to be a negative correlation with the valuation of the Yen and these markets.

Crude Oil – Crude Oil Inventories Continue to Rise

Despite the large jump in the supply of U.S. Crude Oil Inventories, the price of Crude still remains relatively high. Oil Inventories rose by 5.6 million barrels this week, more than twice the forecasted amount. This is the third consecutive week that Crude Oil stocks have risen. The price of Crude Oil ended the day’s trading at $52.20.

Some analysts feel the price of Crude Oil may be fundamentally overvalued. Rising stock markets and an appreciating Dollar may be artificially supporting the commodity. With an absence of positive economic data, the possibility for a drop in Crude Oil prices exists. A possible price target could be below the $49 level.

Technical News

EUR/USD

This pair appears to be range trading with highs near 1.3300 and lows near 1.3150. With the price sitting near the lower figure, and apparently floating in the over-sold territory on the 4-hour chart, an upward correction back towards 1.3300 may be imminent. Buying on lows and selling on highs within this range might be a good strategy today.

GBP/USD

The latest upward movement has pushed this pair into the over-bought territory on the 4-hour and daily charts, signaling an impending downward correction. As the price hovers near the upper border of the daily chart’s Bollinger Bands, the downward pressure may be gaining strength. Going short might be a wise choice today.

USD/JPY

As this pair levels off after its recent volatility, there appears to be a lack of direction as all oscillators remain in neutral territory. With a potential bullish cross forming on the hourly chart’s Slow Stochastic, there is a chance that the next move will be in an upward direction. Traders may consider going long with tight stops today or waiting for a clearer signal.

USD/CHF

This pair appears to be lacking any clear indication of its impending movement as all oscillators indicate neutrality. This pair does show that it is trading in an bullish channel, however, with distinct highs and lows. Buying on the lows and selling on the highs within this channel might be a wise choice.

The Wild Card – AUD/NZD

The recent volatile upward movement pushed the price of this pair above the upper limit on the 4-hour and daily charts’ Bollinger Bands and subsequently drove the price into the over-bought territory on the 4-hour chart’s RSI as well. With a bearish cross beginning to form on the daily chart’s Slow Stochastic, these indicators all point in one direction: down. Traders involved in the forex market have a great opportunity to join this downward movement at a very early stage if they enter the market today.

Forex Market Analysis provided by Forex Yard.

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Disclaimer: Trading Foreign Exchange carries a high level of risk and may not be suitable for all investors. There is a possibility that you could sustain a loss of all of your investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with Foreign Exchange trading.

Fundamental Outlook at 1400 GMT (EDT + 0400)

By GCI Fx Research


The euro weakened vis-à-vis the U.S. dollar today as the single currency tested bids around the US$ 1.3145 level and was capped around the US$ 1.3295 level.  Many data were released in the U.S. today. First, March consumer prices fell 0.1%, the latest evidence of decling pricing power, while the annualized print was off 0.4% – the first decline in 54 years.   Second, the New York State Federal Reserve’s April Empire State manufacturing index improved to -14.7 from -38.2 in March.  Third, March industrial output was off 1.5% in March.  Fourth, February net long-term TICS capital flows increased to US$ 22 billion from –US$ 36.8 billion in January, an indication that investment flows may have improved through the course of Q1.  Fifth, the NAHB monthly home builders’ survey improved to +14 in April from +9 in March.  In eurozone news, European Central Bank member Ordonez said the ECB can trim interest rates further and employ unconventional monetary policy measures.  ECB member Weber reported the ECB will “announce a package of non-standard monetary measures in May, which would be applicable into the rest of the year.”  Weber added the ECB has a “bit more leeway” to reduce the refinancing rate further but added he is “critical of lowering the main refinancing rate” below 1%.  The German government is currently reviewing ways to remove illiquid assets from banks’ balance sheets.  Eurogroup chairman Juncker today said economic conditions in the European Union remain grim and warned of a “risk of mass layoffs by the end of the year.”  Euro bids are cited around the US$ 1.3100 figure.

¥/ CNY

The yen depreciated vis-à-vis the U.S. dollar today as the greenback tested offers around the ¥99.65 level and was supported around the ¥98.15 level.  Data released in Japan overnight saw February revised industrial output decline 9.4% m/m, unchanged from the preliminary reading.  Bank of Japan is expected to continue its large scale asset purchases as part of its quantitative easing framework.  The Nikkei 225 stock index lost 1.13% to close at ¥8,742.96.  U.S. dollar offers are cited around the ¥104.15 level.  The euro moved lower vis-à-vis the yen as the single currency tested bids around the ¥129.90 level and was capped around the ¥131.80 level.  The British pound moved higher vis-à-vis the yen as sterling tested offers around the ¥149.25 level while the Swiss franc moved lower vis-à-vis the yen and tested bids around the ¥86.05 level.  The Chinese yuan appreciated vis-à-vis the U.S. dollar today as the greenback closed at CNY 6.8200 in the over-the-counter market, down from CNY 6.8320.

The British pound appreciated vis-à-vis the U.S. dollar today as cable tested offers around the US$ 1.5035 level and was supported around the $1.4820 level.  Data released in the U.K. today saw the RICS housing buyers’ index improve to -73.1 from -78.1 in February but a majority of surveyors still reported lower prices.  Also, it was reported that the February government house price index worsened to -12.3% from -11.5%.  Cable bids are cited around the US$ 1.4515 level.  The euro moved lower vis-à-vis the British pound as the single currency tested bids around the ₤0.8785 level and was capped around the ₤0.8915 level.

Daily Market Commentary provided by GCI Financial Ltd.

GCI Financial Ltd (”GCI”) is a regulated securities and commodities trading firm, specializing in online Foreign Exchange (”Forex”) brokerage. GCI executes billions of dollars per month in foreign exchange transactions alone. In addition to Forex, GCI is a primary market maker in Contracts for Difference (”CFDs”) on shares, indices and futures, and offers one of the fastest growing online CFD trading services. GCI has over 10,000 clients worldwide, including individual traders, institutions, and money managers. GCI provides an advanced, secure, and comprehensive online trading system. Client funds are insured and held in a separate customer account. In addition, GCI Financial Ltd maintains Net Capital in excess of minimum regulatory requirements.

DISCLAIMER: GCI’s Daily Market Commentary is provided for informational purposes only. The information contained in these reports is gathered from reputable news sources and is not intended to be U.S.ed as investment advice. GCI assumes no responsibility or liability from gains or losses incurred by the information herein contained.

Consumer Prices decline unexpectedly in March. US Dollar mixed in Forex Trading today.

Consumer prices in the U.S. decreased in March after advancing the previous two months according to a report released today by the U.S. Department of Labor. The Consumer Price Index fell by 0.1 percent in March after gaining by 250150currencyexchange0.4 percent in February and by 0.3 percent in January as falling energy prices contributed to the consumer price decrease.

On an annual basis, consumer prices declined by 0.4 percent from March 2008 following a 0.2 percent annual increase in February. March’s price decline surpassed economic forecasts that were expecting a 0.1 percent increase and a 0.1 percent fall in the annual rate.

Core consumer prices, excluding food and energy prices, increased by 0.2 percent in March following a 0.2 percent advancement in February. The annual change in core prices showed a 1.8 percent increase over March 2008 following February’s 1.8 percent annual increase. Market forecasts were predicting core inflation to register a monthly increase of 0.1 percent and an annual increase of 1.7 percent.

Contributing to the lower consumer prices was a decrease in the price for energy as the energy index fell by 3.0 percent in March while the gasoline index also showed a 4.0 percent decline. The food index fell by 0.1 percent in March while the indexes for housing and apparel also declined for the month.

US Dollar mixed in Forex Trading today.

The US Dollar has been mixed in forex trading versus the other major currencies today. The American currency has traded higher versus the euro, Swiss franc and Japanese yen while falling against the British pound, Australian dollar, New Zealand dollar and Canadian dollar.

The US dollar is on track to gain for the second day versus the Swiss franc as the USD/CHF trades at the exchange rate of 1.1438 at 5:43pm EST according to currency data from Oanda. The USD/CHF opened the day trading at 1.1388 and reached an intraday high of 1.1488 before retreating lower.

The euro has fallen versus the dollar after the EUR/USD opened at 1.3244 today to trading at 1.3211 after reaching an intraday high of 1.3297. The British pound has increased versus the dollar as the GBP/USD advanced from its 1.4874 opening to trade at 1.4982 later today.

The Australian dollar has moved higher versus the dollar today as the AUD/USD trades at 0.7269 after opening the day at 0.7167. The New Zealand dollar also increased versus the dollar and the NZD/USD trades at 0.5798 after opening at 0.5775.

The dollar has advanced against the Japanese yen as the USD/JPY trades at 99.37 after opening the day at 98.40 and the dollar has also declined versus the Canadian dollar as the USD/CAD trades at 1.2048 after opening at the 1.2172 exchange rate.

GBP/USD Chart – The British Pound advancing today versus the US Dollar and hovering around the 1.5000 psychological level.

4-15gbpusd

EUR/USD Daily Commentary for 4.15.09

By Fast Brokers

The EUR/USD is consolidating above our 1st tier uptrend line, holding up relatively well considering the brisk selloff on Wall Street in reaction to disappointing U.S. economic data.  The EUR/GBP continues its downturn with the GBP/USD looking to break out of our 2nd tier uptrend line.  Hence, we’re witnessing the perpetuation of status quo among the Euro, Pound, and Dollar due to a lack of significant data from both the EU and Britain.  The Euro is still at a disadvantage with the ECB taking a vague monetary stance, and uncertainty hardly ever yields a positive performance in price. Will the ECB cut its benchmark further or initiate unorthodox liquidity processes?  Nobody knows at this point.  Since the economic data surfacing from the EU over the past month has been mixed, the ECB will likely wait to see if the signs of improvement are only a bounce or a real turn in events.  We’ll witness a couple inflection points shortly, including our 1st tier uptrend and downtrend lines and our 2nd tier uptrend and downtrend lines.  Therefore, the EUR/USD is signaling that it could reach a directional pivot point soon.  Meanwhile, we could see a little pop up to our 1st tier downtrend line intraday.  Fundamentally, we maintain our supports of 1.3271, 1.3223, 1.3192, 1.3162, and 1.3126.  To the topside, we hold our resistances of 1.3323, 1.3351, 1.3375, 1.3413, and1.3462.  The 1.35 area acts a psychological barrier again with 1.30 serving as a key psychological cushion.  The EUR/USD is currently exchanging at 1.3268.

Market Commentary provided by Fast Brokers.

Disclaimer: FastBrokers’ market commentary is provided for information purposes only and under no circumstances should be regardedneither as an investment advice nor as a solicitation or an offer to sell/buy any financial product. FastBrokers assumes no responsibility or liability from gains or losses incurred by the information herein contained.

Risk Disclosure: There is a substantial risk of loss in trading futures and foreign exchange. Please carefully review all risk disclosure documents before opening an account as these financial instruments are not appropriate for all investors.

GBP/USD Daily Commentary for 4.15.09

By Fast Brokers

The Cable has just jumped out of our 2nd tier uptrend line and February highs, leaping over 2 of 3 significant obstacles before a sizable breakout can take place.  The third key barrier is the highly psychological 1.50 level.  Though the Cable is climbing past 1.50 as we speak, the area could prove to be challenging in the near-term, and shouldn’t go down without a fight.  That being said, the GBP/USD is in the process of reconfirming its uptrend as it exercises its clear dominance over the Euro and Dollar.  With a shortage of significant economic data surfacing from Britain this week, the Pound is flying high off of its encouraging data from the past month.  Uncertainty is brewing in the EU and U.S., giving the Pound the upper hand for the near-term.  Hence, the Cable is running without U.S. equities right now.  However, should U.S. markets head higher, this would only add fuel to the fire of the Cable’s present rally.  Whether and uptrend continues to materialize in the GBP/USD over the medium-term is another question.  We could easily see mixed data come from Britain over the next few weeks, stoking uncertainty similar to that in the U.S.  After all, Britain and the U.S. are so intertwined, it would be hard to believe that if the U.S. economy has another setback Britain’s wouldn’t follow suit.  However, right now all is good in the GBP/USD with all indicators in the positive.  Fundamentally, we find resistance of 1.5028 with additional resistances hanging at 1.5080, 1.5121, 1.5185 and 1.5219.  The critical 1.50 could quickly turn into a psychological cushion with 1.55 becoming the psychological barrier. To the downside, we find supports of 1.4988, 1.4946, 1.4883, 1.4834 and 1.4770.   The GBP/USD is currently exchanging at 1.5015.

Market Commentary provided by Fast Brokers.

Disclaimer: FastBrokers’ market commentary is provided for information purposes only and under no circumstances should be regardedneither as an investment advice nor as a solicitation or an offer to sell/buy any financial product. FastBrokers assumes no responsibility or liability from gains or losses incurred by the information herein contained.

Risk Disclosure: There is a substantial risk of loss in trading futures and foreign exchange. Please carefully review all risk disclosure documents before opening an account as these financial instruments are not appropriate for all investors.