Fundamental Outlook at 1400 GMT (EDT + 0400)

By GCI Fx Research

The euro depreciated vis-à-vis the U.S. dollar today as the single currency tested bids around the US$ 1.3090 level and was capped around the US$ 1.3250 level.  The common currency came off as traders moved out of higher-yielding currencies and into safe haven plays on account of a swine influenza outbreak that has already claimed more than 100 lives in Mexico.  Cases have been reported in the U.S., Canada, Europe, and the Antipodes and there is a growing concern the situation could evolve into a global pandemic.  Data released in the eurozone tosay saw the German May GfK consumer sentiment index remain steady at 2.5.  Also, the German March import price index was off 0.4% m/m while the eurozone composite index of leading indicators climbed 0.2% to 92.4 in March.  Group of Seven officials convened in Washington, D.C. this weekend and German Bundesbank President Weber reported he does not expect the German or eurozone economies to evidence economic growth before the middle of 2010.  European Central Bank member Noyer said French banks have passed stress tests so far and ECB member Draghi reported deflation remains a risk to the global economy.  Eurogroup chairman Juncker said G7 officials are generally comfortable with current exchange rates as the broadly reflect economic fundamentals. ECB President Trichet said the amount of taxpayers’ funds that have been but at risk in the U.S. and eurozone in creating fiscal stimuli are roughly similar, countering a reported U.S. claim the eurozone is not doing enough fiscally to help improve its economy. In U.S. news, traders are awaiting next Monday’s results of banks’ stress tests to see which of the nineteen largest U.S. banks may require additional capital from the government.   Euro bids are cited around the US$ 1.2765 level.

¥/ CNY

The yen appreciated vis-à-vis the U.S. dollar today as the greenback tested bids around the ¥96.45 level and was capped around the ¥97.10 level.  Bank of Japan Governor Shirakawa said the Group of Seven meeting in Washington, D.C. this weekend evidenced some indications of hope on the economy and he added there are nascent signs the economy may be stabilizing with the rate of economic decline decelerating.  The yen gained steam overnight as global fears over a possible swine influenza pandemic increased.  The Nikkei 225 stock index climbed 0.21% to close at ¥8,726.34.  U.S. dollar offers are cited around the ¥104.15 level.  The euro moved lower vis-à-vis the yen as the single currency tested bids around the ¥126.45 level and was capped around the ¥128.30 level.  The British pound moved lower vis-à-vis the yen as sterling tested bids around the ¥140.0 level while the Swiss franc moved lower vis-à-vis the yen and tested bids around the ¥84.00 figure.  The Chinese yuan depreciated vis-à-vis the U.S. dollar today as the greenback closed at CNY 6.8275 in the over-the-counter market, up from CNY 6.8233.   Chinese Vice Finance Minister Li Yong reported “flawed international monetary system is the institutional root cause of the (financial) crisis, and a major defect in the current international economic governance structure.  People’s Bank of China Governor Zhou and Chinese government officials continue to call for the creation of a supranational reserve currency.

The British pound depreciated vis-à-vis the U.S. dollar today as cable tested bids around the US$ 1.4515 level and was capped around the $1.4675 level.  Data released in the U.K. today saw BBA March net mortgage lending ease to ₤3.7 billion from ₤3.9 billion in February.  Similarly, mortgage approvals declined and Hometrack April house prices registered their smallest decline in thirteen months.  BBA also reported gross mortgage lending declined to ₤8.9 billion in March from ₤9.2 billion in February.  Cable bids are cited around the US$ 1.4350 level.  The euro came off vis-à-vis the British pound as the single currency tested bids around the ₤0.8965 level and was capped around the ₤0.9055 level.

Daily Market Commentary provided by GCI Financial Ltd.

GCI Financial Ltd (”GCI”) is a regulated securities and commodities trading firm, specializing in online Foreign Exchange (”Forex”) brokerage. GCI executes billions of dollars per month in foreign exchange transactions alone. In addition to Forex, GCI is a primary market maker in Contracts for Difference (”CFDs”) on shares, indices and futures, and offers one of the fastest growing online CFD trading services. GCI has over 10,000 clients worldwide, including individual traders, institutions, and money managers. GCI provides an advanced, secure, and comprehensive online trading system. Client funds are insured and held in a separate customer account. In addition, GCI Financial Ltd maintains Net Capital in excess of minimum regulatory requirements.

DISCLAIMER: GCI’s Daily Market Commentary is provided for informational purposes only. The information contained in these reports is gathered from reputable news sources and is not intended to be U.S.ed as investment advice. GCI assumes no responsibility or liability from gains or losses incurred by the information herein contained.

Crude Daily Commentary for 4.27.09

By Fast Brokers

The extreme volatility in crude continues.  Just when you thought the crude futures had gained some positive momentum, they reverse course with a passion, smacking bulls in the face.  The crude futures have crashed below our 2nd tier downtrend line and the highly psychological $50/bbl.  Crude bowed to our 1st tier uptrend line in the process, and is making investors question which trend is truly in control.  The negative performance of crude comes in reaction to the Swine Flu.  The outbreak of the Swine Flu will likely hit international travel, taking a large bite out of the airlines’ consumption of crude.  With weekly crude inventories missing sharply to the upside the past two weeks, the Swine Flu only saturates crude’s aggregate supply, sending price sharply lower.  To make matter worse, the present performance of crude could be pointing at a significant decline in U.S. equities.  If the S&P futures were to crash beneath our 2nd tier downtrend line, the selloff in crude could pick up from here due to their tight positive correlation.  Negative performance in U.S. corporations hinders the demand side’s recovery.  Coupled with the supply shocks taking place, it is difficult to be positive on crude.  On a lighter note, crude futures have managed to recover above April lows, keeping a glimmer of hope alive for the uptrend.

Fundamentally, we find supports of $48.78/bbl, $48.33/bbl, $47.86/bbl, $47.53/bbl, and $46.79/bbl.  To the topside, we see resistances of $49.22/bbl, $49.66/bbl, $50.10/bbl, $50.44/bbl, and $51.02/bbl.  $50/bbl turns becomes a key psychological barrier again while $45/bbl serves as a psychological cushion.  Crude is presently trading at $48.11/bbl.

Market Commentary provided by Fast Brokers.

Disclaimer: FastBrokers’ market commentary is provided for information purposes only and under no circumstances should be regardedneither as an investment advice nor as a solicitation or an offer to sell/buy any financial product. FastBrokers assumes no responsibility or liability from gains or losses incurred by the information herein contained.

Risk Disclosure: There is a substantial risk of loss in trading futures and foreign exchange. Please carefully review all risk disclosure documents before opening an account as these financial instruments are not appropriate for all investors.

Gold Daily Commentary for 4.27.09

By Fast Brokers

Gold is weakening Monday despite U.S. equities prepping to open lower.  The precious metal is edging below our 3rd tier uptrend line, and a breather from recent gains isn’t too surprising.  Gold seems to be making a commitment to $900/oz+, a key development fundamentally.   The precious metal is still finding strength in the knowledge that China is diversifying more of its reserves towards gold.  Furthermore, gold is thriving in the fact that the S&P futures have been unable to break out of their own key fundamentals.  However, one cause for concern for gold is the fact that CPI data continues to trend downwards worldwide, reigniting the fear of deflation.  Deflation wrapped its hands around gold during the height of the economic crisis, dragging down the precious metal with equities.  Hence, it is reasonable to stay cautions on a medium-term trend basis.  That being said, we have some very interesting, longer-term trend lines playing key roles in our analysis.  If gold were to climb above our 3rd tier downtrend line, we could see the precious metal explode to the upside.  Then again, we must take note of the downtrend, and the fact that the recent progress made can be wiped away.  Gold is trading above our 3rd tier uptrend line and the ball is in the uptrend’s court until further notice.

Fundamentally we find resistances of $913.47/oz, $916.16/oz, $919.54/oz, $922.69/oz, and $925.04/oz.  To the downside, we see supports of $910.88, $908.86/oz, $905.94/oz, $903.83/oz, and $901.41/oz. Gold is currently trading at $912.15/oz.

Market Commentary provided by Fast Brokers.

Disclaimer: FastBrokers’ market commentary is provided for information purposes only and under no circumstances should be regardedneither as an investment advice nor as a solicitation or an offer to sell/buy any financial product. FastBrokers assumes no responsibility or liability from gains or losses incurred by the information herein contained.

Risk Disclosure: There is a substantial risk of loss in trading futures and foreign exchange. Please carefully review all risk disclosure documents before opening an account as these financial instruments are not appropriate for all investors.

Greenback is Knocked Down by the Swine Flu in Mexico

Source: ForexYard

The U.S. dollar fell on Monday to its lowest in a month against the Yen as worries about the spread of the swine flu from Mexico prompted investors into perceived safe-haven currencies such as the Yen and the CHF. Crude oil was also pushed down toward $50 a barrel on fears that the global flu pandemic that could give the world economy another knock.

Economic News

USD – Swine Flu puts Downward Pressure on the USD and Tourism

The U.S. Dollar appeared to be losing ground against all of its major currency counterparts towards the end of last week’s trading. It dropped to one-week lows against its rivals, falling to 1.3300 against the EUR, 1.4750 against the Pound, and 96.65 against the JPY last Friday. Apparently a number of news events, not wholly related to economic fundamentals, made an impact on the value of the USD last week.

With Ecuador claiming that they will continue to use the USD as their currency, the greenback received a modest level of support from the southern Hemisphere, not necessarily unrelated to President Barack Obama’s recent meeting with South American leaders.

In other news, fears of the recent outbreak of swine flu put a major dent in the Dollar as traders began speculating that U.S. tourism would drop in the coming months as a result, and therefore pulled out from the greenback in exchange for an alternative safe-haven. Also, the run-up to the latest round of G7 and IMF meetings put a slightly positive spin on world stocks and the idea of a balanced investment portfolio. This lent weight to the notion of pulling money away from the USD.

The good news for the USD is that it has begun an across-the-board correction during today’s early trading hours due to a number of Dollar-positive news events. Recent announcements that Chrysler, an American auto giant, may not need to declare bankruptcy has returned some confidence to the U.S. currency. The impending light news week also has the Dollar prepared to take a seat on the bench for the days ahead. Without driving its own market, the USD is more susceptible to world trends and may therefore be at the mercy of the EUR and JPY this week. With a few potentially damaging reports due, the USD may climb back towards 1.3000 against the EUR and 97.50 against the Yen over the next few days.

EUR – EUR Positive After PMI and Ifo Provide Surprising Results

The EUR gained steady momentum against most of its currency rivals last week. Hitting a one-week high against most of its currency counterparts, the EUR climbed above 1.3300 against the Dollar and near 0.9100 against the Pound Sterling. The question remains as to whether the 16-nation currency can hold onto these advances throughout the coming week.

Startling news emerged from the Euro-Zone as the European Union (EU) made overtures towards the idea of Iceland joining the union. After its national bankruptcy last year, the small island country has been struggling to catch up.

In economic news, the staggeringly high PMI numbers from the Euro-Zone regional economy generated a strong movement towards the EUR at the end of last week’s trading; no doubt adding to the EUR’s bullish run. Supporting this bullish momentum was the additional news from the German Ifo Business Climate report which signaled that the Euro-Zone may actually have bottomed and is beginning its steady road to recovery.

With the moderate news week ahead for the EUR, we may see the recent strength continue so long as economic fundamentals produce better than expected results like they did last week. However, the optimism which was soaring high at the end of last week, may have corrected itself downward as the realization of an economy hitting rock bottom sank in. While a good signal that the Euro-Zone is starting its recovery. The long road ahead may indeed stymie this bullish movement. Traders may want to look for a downward-correcting EUR this week.

JPY – JPY’s Recent Gains Set to Reverse

The Japanese Yen was set to advance itself throughout this week, after gaining steadily against most of its rivals, especially the USD. However, as the Nikkei index opened lower at the start of this week, the Yen’s safe-haven move may have ended abruptly this morning. Growing as high as 96.65 against the USD and 127.50 against the EUR, the Yen may now see a correction throughout the impending hours due to poor stock performance and a USD-positive trading session.

With the recent scare over the swine flu outbreak in the United States, the JPY was bought up as an alternative safe-haven against the USD as tourism in the U.S. was expected to drop. Nevertheless, the JPY now appears to be paring off its recent gains as stock markets indicate a lack of confidence in the Japanese currency. Traders may look to the Yen depreciating against most of its currency rivals throughout the next few days, especially with a heavy news week for the JPY which may illuminate the inherent weakness of the island economy.

Crude Oil – Is OPEC Planning Further Production Cuts?

After failing to breach the resistance level of $52 a barrel last week, the price of Crude Oil appears to be coming back down. Recent press releases from the various oil ministers in member countries of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) have stated that the latest price volatility has been damaging to the future of the oil industry. Such volatile price swings as those seen over the past 8 months can cause irreparable carnage to an industry in need of heavy foreign investment.

Without clear data regarding the current supply and demand levels in the world’s energy supplies, organizations such as OPEC have little to go on but recent price levels. If prices don’t find strong support in the coming weeks, the cartel may be forced to call for further production cuts in order to boost prices back to levels where investment becomes feasible. If oil prices continue where they are, this move may be more likely. Traders need to keep an eye on hawkish statements such as these from members of OPEC as it could signal a shift towards further production cuts, and the possibility of an increase in the value of Crude Oil.

Technical News

EUR/USD

The Slow Stochastic and the RSI on the daily chart are showing a continuation of the current bearish correction. There is a very accurate bearish channel forming on the hourly chart. In addition all indicators on the 4 hour chart are pointing down. Going short might be the right choice today

GBP/USD

After experiencing a mild bullish correction on Thursday, the cable has fully resumed its general bearish trend. The RSI on the 4 hour chart is now floating around the 50 line, indicating that the bearish momentum still has more steam in it. Going short seems to be preferable.

USD/JPY

The sharp bearish move that took place during the past couple of days seems to have more steam in it. The RSI on the hourly charts is crossed above the 40 line, suggesting that the pair may fall further. The bearish move on the daily’s Slow Stochastic also supports this notion. Next target could be 96.20

USD/CHF

Our preference: Long @ 1.139 with targets @ 1.1475 & 1.15 in extension.
Alternative scenario: Below 1.1385 look for further downside with 1.135 & 1.1305 as targets. The RSI is bullish, the pair is on the upside and is challenging its intermediary resistance. Pivot: 1.1385

The Wild Card – Oil

The momentum that was created yesterday by the bearish breach through the bottom of the channel in the hourly chart is growing stronger. The 4 hour chart is supporting a strong bearish notion as well, creating a great opportunity for forex traders to join.

Forex Market Analysis provided by Forex Yard.

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Fundamental Outlook at 1400 GMT (EDT + 0400)

By GCI Fx Research

The euro appreciated vis-à-vis the U.S. dollar today as the single currency tested offers around the US$ 1.3300 figure and was supported around the US$ 1.3110 level.  The common currency darted higher following some positive European data and a strong day in the U.S. equity markets on news the Obama administration is extending another US$ 2 billion in loans to General Motors.  The Federal Reserve reported the recession and market turbulence have “substantially reduced” reserves at some of the nineteen largest U.S. banks, noting most banks maintain capital “well in excess” of regulatory standards.  The Fed also said the government is prepared to aid U.S. banks that are experiencing problems.  The Fed’s stress tests results of U.S. banks will be released on 4 May.  Group of Seven officials convening this weekend will likely not announce any new actions in their communiqué and will likely not include new verbiage on exchange rate. Data released in the U.S. today saw March new home sales decline 0.6% to an annualized 356,000 rate and fall 30.6% y/y.  Also, March durable goods orders were off 0.8% with the ex-transportation component off 0.6%.   In eurozone news, the IMF called on the ECB to reduce rates further and “in a timely manner.”  The German Ifo business confidence index improved to 83.7 in April from 82.2 in March.  Many economists believe the worst may be behind the German economy but today’s print remains recessionary.  Additionally, French March consumer spending was up 1.1% m/m and 0.6% y/y.  Euro bids are cited around the US$ 1.2765 level.

¥/ CNY

The yen appreciated vis-à-vis the U.S. dollar today as the greenback tested bids around the ¥96.65 level and was capped around the ¥98.15 level.  Data released in Japan overnight saw March corporate service price index climb 0.9% m/m and decline 2.1% y/y.  The Nikkei 225 stock index lost 1.57% to close at ¥8,707.99.  U.S. dollar offers are cited around the ¥104.15 level.  The euro moved lower vis-à-vis the yen as the single currency tested bids around the ¥127.25 level and was capped around the ¥129.25 level.  The British pound moved lower vis-à-vis the yen as sterling tested bids around the ¥141.15 level while the Swiss franc moved higher vis-à-vis the yen and tested offers around the ¥85.60 level.  The Chinese yuan appreciated vis-à-vis the U.S. dollar today as the greenback closed at CNY 6.8230 in the over-the-counter market, down from CNY 6.8233.   People’s Bank of China adviser Fan said China can still record 7-8% growth this year.

The British pound depreciated vis-à-vis the U.S. dollar today as cable tested bids around the US$ 1.4575 level and was capped around the $1.4770 level.  Chancellor of the Exchequer Darling said the markets can support the U.K. government’s planned ₤125 billion of gilts issuance this year.  March retail sales were up 0.3% m/m and up 1.5% y/y and Q1 GDP were off 1.9% q/q and 4.1% y/y.  Cable bids are cited around the US$ 1.4350 level.  The euro moved higher vis-à-vis the British pound as the single currency tested offers around the ₤0.9080 level and was supported around the ₤0.8920 level.

Daily Market Commentary provided by GCI Financial Ltd.

GCI Financial Ltd (”GCI”) is a regulated securities and commodities trading firm, specializing in online Foreign Exchange (”Forex”) brokerage. GCI executes billions of dollars per month in foreign exchange transactions alone. In addition to Forex, GCI is a primary market maker in Contracts for Difference (”CFDs”) on shares, indices and futures, and offers one of the fastest growing online CFD trading services. GCI has over 10,000 clients worldwide, including individual traders, institutions, and money managers. GCI provides an advanced, secure, and comprehensive online trading system. Client funds are insured and held in a separate customer account. In addition, GCI Financial Ltd maintains Net Capital in excess of minimum regulatory requirements.

DISCLAIMER: GCI’s Daily Market Commentary is provided for informational purposes only. The information contained in these reports is gathered from reputable news sources and is not intended to be U.S.ed as investment advice. GCI assumes no responsibility or liability from gains or losses incurred by the information herein contained.

US Durable Goods, New Home Sales fall. US Dollar declines in Forex Trading.

By CountingPips.com

Economic news out of the U.S. today showed that durable goods orders declined in March after rebounding in February. Durable goods orders in the United States fell 0.8 percent in March to a total of $161.2 billion according to news released by the 250150usdchangeU.S. Commerce Department today. Durable goods sales rebounded in February by a revised 2.1 percent after falling for six straight months. Today’s data beat market forecasts that had been expecting that durable goods orders would decrease by approximately 1.5 percent for the month.

New orders for durable goods excluding transportation fell by 0.6 percent in March following a revised increase of 2.0 percent in February. Market forecasts were predicting a decrease of 1.3 percent in durable goods minus transportation.

Shipments of durable goods decreased in March by 1.7 percent and fell for the eighth straight month. Unfilled orders decreased 1.1 percent in the month while durable good inventories decreased by 1.4 percent and have now declined for three straight months. March nondefense orders for new goods rose by 1.9 percent while defense orders for capital goods decreased by 14.4 percent.

U.S. New Home Sales edge down in March.

New Home Sales in the United States dipped in the month of March  according to data released by the Department of Commerce today. Purchases of new single family homes fell to an annual rate of 356,000 in March, a 0.6 percent decline following February’s 8.2 percent increase in sales. March’s annual rate of new homes sold is 30.6 percent lower than the March 2008 level.

March’s results were worse than market forecasts which were expecting no change in sales for the month but surpassed forecasts expecting an annual rate of 337,000 new homes sold. The median sales price of new homes in March fell by 12 percent on an annual basis to $201,400 while the average sales price was $258,000.

US Dollar declines in forex trading today.

The U.S. dollar has been under pressure in forex trading today against the major currencies.  The dollar has declined versus the euro, Australian dollar,  Japanese yen, New Zealand dollar, British pound, Canadian dollar and Swiss franc.

The euro has advanced versus the USD as the EUR/USD trades at 1.3247 in the afternoon of the US trading session at 2:52pm EST after opening the day at 1.3147 according to currency data from Oanda.

The British pound has increased just slightly today versus the American currency as the GBP/USD has gained from 1.4667 to trading at 1.4674 dollars per pound. The dollar has fallen against the Japanese yen today as the USD/JPY has declined from its 97.36 opening to trading at 97.06.

The dollar has declined against the Canadian dollar after opening at 1.2241 earlier today to trading at 1.2089 later. Meanwhile, the USD has also declined against the Swiss franc from 1.1506 to trading at 1.1394.

The Australian dollar has gained ground versus the USD as the AUD/USD trades at 0.7216 after opening today at 0.7145 while the New Zealand dollar has also climbed versus the USD and the NZD/USD trades at 0.5716 after opening the day’s trading at 0.5635.

USD/CAD Chart – The US Dollar falling sharply today versus the Canadian Dollar in Forex Trading action. The USD/CAD is on its way to declining for the second straight day and ending lower for the week.

Today's Forex Chart
Today's Forex Chart

UK GDP declines by 1.9% in 1st Quarter. Retail Sales increase.

The United Kingdom Gross Domestic Product fell by more than expected in the first quarter of 2009 according to a report by the Office of National Statistics today. The U.K. GDP data showed that quarterly GDP fell by 1.9 percent in the January through March quarter following a  decline of 1.6 percent in the fourth quarter of 2008. The 1.9 percent GDP decline marked the largest decrease since the third quarter of 1979.

On an annual basis, the first quarter GDP fell by 4.1 percent from the level of the first quarter of 2008 and marked the largest annual decline since 1980. The 2008 fourth quarter registered a decline of 2.0 percent. Today’s data surpassed economic forecasts which were expecting the quarterly GDP to decline by 1.5 percent and the annual GDP rate to fall by 3.8 percent.

Contributing to the contraction in GDP was a decline of total production output in the first quarter by 5.5 percent after falling by 4.5 percent in the fourth quarter. Construction activity fell by 2.4 percent while total services output saw a decline by 1.2 percent in the first quarter after a 0.8 percent decline in the fourth quarter. Other notable declines for the quarter were business services & finance which fell by 1.8 percent and transport, storage & communication which decreased by 2.9 percent. Positive contributors to the GDP data were agriculture, forestry & fishing output which increased by 0.3 percent and government & other services output which advanced by 0.5 percent for the quarter.

UK Retail Sales gain in March to beat forecasts.

Retail Sales data was also released today out of the United Kingdom and showed that retail sales rose more than expected in March. The UK retail sales data, released by National Statistics, increased by 0.3 percent in March following a revised decrease of 2.0 percent in February. On an annual basis, retail sales increased by 1.5 percent over the March 2008 time period following a 0.4 percent annual gain in February. Today’s sales data surpassed market forecasts that were expecting sales would fall by 0.3 percent in March to register an annual increase of only 1.1 percent.

Contributing to the increase in retail sales was a gain of 0.6 percent in predominantly food stores while non-store retailing & repair also increased for the month by 3.4 percent. Non-food stores saw sales fall by 0.2 percent in March.

Gold Daily Commentary for 4.24.09

By Fast Brokers

Gold did take off after getting above the key $900/oz level after a report that China has increased its gold reserves by 76% since 2003.  However, gold’s run has topped out after Durable Goods Orders beat analyst expectations this morning.  The S&P futures are poised to breakout, meaning the precious metal could quickly return a lot of its recent gains.  Additionally, we wouldn’t be surprised to see gold retrace to $900/oz simply due to the psychological significance of the level.  Furthermore, the release from China’s Xinhua news agency regarding the nation’s gold reserves is a bit vague.  Saying China has increased its reserves of gold by 76% since 2003 doesn’t necessarily mean the buildup has happened recently.  We’re talking about a six year period in which China’s overall reserves skyrocketed.  Is China really diversifying from the Dollar, or is the government playing mind games by stating a figure spread over six years?  One can never be sure.  However, we opt for the mind games explanation.  Either way, China is sending a clear message it plans on diversifying from the Dollar in the present and future, which is likely why gold is experiencing so much strength from the news.  Regardless, gold’s commitment to $900/oz.+ future is a big move and investors should take notice.  If the precious metal can close above our 3rd tier uptrend line on the 4-hour we could see more large near-term gains.  Fundamentally we find resistances of $909.66/oz, $913.47/oz, $916.16/oz, $919.54/oz, and $922.69/oz.  To the downside, we see supports of $907.64/oz, $905.85/oz, $903.83/oz, $900.41/oz, and $898.15/oz. Gold is currently trading at $907.65/oz.

Market Commentary provided by Fast Brokers.

Disclaimer: FastBrokers’ market commentary is provided for information purposes only and under no circumstances should be regardedneither as an investment advice nor as a solicitation or an offer to sell/buy any financial product. FastBrokers assumes no responsibility or liability from gains or losses incurred by the information herein contained.

Risk Disclosure: There is a substantial risk of loss in trading futures and foreign exchange. Please carefully review all risk disclosure documents before opening an account as these financial instruments are not appropriate for all investors.

EUR/USD Daily Commentary for 4.24.09

By Fast Brokers

The EUR/USD has put on an incredible rally the last 24 hours, surging past 4/10 lows to our 1st tier downtrend line.  The EUR/USD surpassing the highly psychological 1.30 level and our 3rd tier uptrend line on Thursday was a clear instigating force in sending the currency pair higher.  Yesterday’s better than expected services and manufacturing PMI data combined with today’s optimistic German Ifo Business Climate reading are giving the Euro incredible strength.  All of these data points relay a message that the overall outlook of business managers is improving in the EU.  However, what remains to be seen is whether the upturn in these significant data sets materializes into a real uptrend, or merely a bounce in a downtrend.  Only time will tell.  At least the EUR/USD bulls have something to cheer about now.  The relative strength of the Euro is exemplified by a breakout in the EUR/GBP as it made a psychological move of its own by shooting above .90.  Despite its impressive run, the EUR/USD is ducking back below our 1st tier downtrend line as investors react to Durable Goods Orders from the U.S.  We remain cautiously optimistic as we must remember the ECB has been vague concerning its future monetary policy, creating a lot of uncertainty among the investment world.  Caution aside, the EUR/USD has made some encouraging progress to the topside.  The next set of challenges will be climbing above 4/09 highs and our 2nd and 3rd downtrend lines.  Fundamentally, we find supports of 1.3211, 1.3178, 1.3143, 1.3109, and 1.1.3068.  To the topside, we see resistances of 1.3269, 1.3297, 1.3335, 1.3379, and 1.3411.  1.30 becomes a key psychological cushion while 1.35 serves as a psychological barrier.  The EUR/USD is currently exchanging at 1.3237.

Market Commentary provided by Fast Brokers.

Disclaimer: FastBrokers’ market commentary is provided for information purposes only and under no circumstances should be regardedneither as an investment advice nor as a solicitation or an offer to sell/buy any financial product. FastBrokers assumes no responsibility or liability from gains or losses incurred by the information herein contained.

Risk Disclosure: There is a substantial risk of loss in trading futures and foreign exchange. Please carefully review all risk disclosure documents before opening an account as these financial instruments are not appropriate for all investors.

GBP/USD Daily Commentary for 4.24.09

By Fast Brokers

The Cable is recovering from earlier losses in reaction to a worse than expected Prelim GDP release from Britain.  The Prelim GDP number shows the British economy is indeed in worse shape than anticipated as the nation’s production gets punished for its heavy reliance on financial services.  Moody’s highlighted the dismal situation by warning Britain’s AAA credit rating may be in jeopardy due to the nation’s unprecedented over-reliance on debt to keep its economy afloat.  A loss of its AAA rating would raise the interest payments Britain must pay on its debt, only increasing the overall burden on the economy.  Bad news aside, the Cable is reacting in a more positive manner than one would anticipate after such negative developments.  The GBP/USD is finding strength in better than expected business climate data from the EU and durable goods orders out of the U.S.  The Cable has bounced off our 2nd tier trend line and could realize some substantial gains should it brave above yesterday’s high.  The resilience of the GBP/USD is highly reliant on the performance of U.S. equities to counter the bad news from Britain.  With the S&P futures flirting with the possibility of another breakout, the Cable may be inclined to participate due to the positive correlation.  Fundamentally, we find resistances of 1.4730, 1.4773, 1.4826, 1.4864, and 1.4904.  To the downside, we see supports of 1.4677, 1.4612, 1.4567, 1.4532, and 1.4481.  1.45 serves as a psychological cushion with 1.50 acting as a key psychological barrier. The GBP/USD is currently exchanging at 1.4687.

Market Commentary provided by Fast Brokers.

Disclaimer: FastBrokers’ market commentary is provided for information purposes only and under no circumstances should be regardedneither as an investment advice nor as a solicitation or an offer to sell/buy any financial product. FastBrokers assumes no responsibility or liability from gains or losses incurred by the information herein contained.

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