InvestMacro FX

By Fast Brokers – The Cable continues its brisk climb, forming a v-shaped recovery from last week’s pullback.  The currency pair is making the most of yesterday’s manufacturing production report and the fact that we’re witnessing a broad depreciation of the Dollar.  Britain’s data has continued to recover well as compared to the U.S. and EU, giving a relative strength to the Pound.  However, there is still a force acting to the downside, and the Cable will need to overcome our 3rd tier downtrend line and previous June highs before we feel comfortable again with a bullish stance.

Some analysts predict we may see a sizeable pullback in U.S. equities soon due to the fact that the present run may be overextended.  This would likely imply a deflection from our 3rd tier downtrend line and an ensuing pullback in the Cable due to their positive correlation.  The currency pair did register noticeable volume to the downside last week, but this doesn’t necessarily imply a protracted downturn.  In fact, we should note that the volume we saw on June 4th was the most action the currency pair has registered since mid-December of 2008.  The market could be sending us a message, and volatility should ensue for the near-term.

An interesting conversation these days involves U.S. Treasuries and the response of equities.  If Treasury yields continue to climb and this has a large, negative impact on equities, there’s the possibility of the GBP/USD and EUR/USD changing their positive correlation with the S&P as investors lose confidence in the Dollar.  However, this is merely speculation and the positive correlation should be intact for the foreseeable future, just something to keep an eye on.  The medium-term uptrend of the Cable is alive and well, and the currency pair should continue to exhibit relative strength since its economic data is out of the way for the week.  If the GBP/USD can get above our top-end resistance near-term gains could accelerate.
Present Price: 1.6542

Resistances: 1.6574, 1.6626, 1.6686, 1.6723

Supports: 1.6497, 1.6458, 1.6412, 1.6371, 1.6315

Psychological: 1.65, 1.70

Market Commentary provided by Fast Brokers.

Disclaimer: FastBrokers’ market commentary is provided for information purposes only and under no circumstances should be regardedneither as an investment advice nor as a solicitation or an offer to sell/buy any financial product. FastBrokers assumes no responsibility or liability from gains or losses incurred by the information herein contained.

Risk Disclosure: There is a substantial risk of loss in trading futures and foreign exchange. Please carefully review all risk disclosure documents before opening an account as these financial instruments are not appropriate for all investors.

By Fast Brokers – The USD/JPY continues to hit a brick wall at our 3rd tier downtrend line, revealing the significance of the obstacle.  Investors were ambivalent about a better than expected Final GDP from Japan, and the USD/JPY is creeping back into its downtrend as U.S. equities rise.  Hence, we are witnessing the theme of a broad based depreciation of the Dollar once again.  Though movement in the USD/JPY is less extreme, its recent tendency to have a negative correlation with the GBP/USD and EUR/USD says wonders.  Hypothetically, the USD/JPY should be rising with equities due to the global economic recovery taking place.  However, the USD/JPY’s tendency to head south with rising equities shows us there is rampant concern surrounding the greenback.  Furthermore, the longer the Yen trades at a relatively appreciated level, the longer Japanese exporters and manufacturers will struggle.  We could see the USD/JPY remain within its trading range developed over the past few months until our downtrend lines finally collide with price.  By then, the USD/JPY will likely be forced to make another directional decision.  As for now, the medium-term downtrend is in place and will remain so until we see a game-changing move to the upside.

Present Price: 97.85

Resistances: 97.98, 98.66, 99.49, 100.06, 100.74

Supports: 97.45, 96.90, 96.33, 95.82, 95.20

Psychological: 95, 100

Market Commentary provided by Fast Brokers.

Disclaimer: FastBrokers’ market commentary is provided for information purposes only and under no circumstances should be regardedneither as an investment advice nor as a solicitation or an offer to sell/buy any financial product. FastBrokers assumes no responsibility or liability from gains or losses incurred by the information herein contained.

Risk Disclosure: There is a substantial risk of loss in trading futures and foreign exchange. Please carefully review all risk disclosure documents before opening an account as these financial instruments are not appropriate for all investors.

CountingPips.com

U.S. Retail Sales increased in May and reversed two consecutive monthly declines according to a report by the U.S. Commerce Department released today. Advance estimates of May retail sales showed that sales rose by 0.5 percent to $340.0 billion following a revised 0.2 percent decline in April. On an annual basis, retail sales have declined by 9.6 percent from the May 2008 level following April’s 10.0 percent annual decline. Today’s data matched the market forecasts expecting a 0.5 percent monthly sales gain.

Retail sales, minus automobiles, also increased by 0.5 percent in May after a 0.2 percent revised decline in April. This data surpassed market forecasts that were predicting a 0.2 percent gain for the month.  On an annual basis, sales minus autos is 7.3 percent lower than the May 2008 level following April’s annual decline of 7.3 percent.

May’s retail sales numbers were boosted by a 3.6 percent increase gasoline station sales. Despite the monthly increase, gasoline station sales are 33.8 percent below the May 2008 level when gas prices were on a steep incline towards record high prices. Also positively contibuting to the retail sales for May was a 1.3 percent increase in building material & garden eq. & supplies dealers while health & personal care store sales rose by 0.7 percent and motor vehicle & parts dealers sales grew by 0.5 percent.

The largest negative contributors to the retail sales data in May were miscellaneous store retailers with a 1.3 percent decline, sporting goods, hobby, book & music stores with a 0.8 percent decrease and electronics & appliance stores with a 0.5 percent decline.

Weekly Jobless Claims fall, continuing claims at record high.

Weekly U.S. initial jobless claims fell in the week that ended on June 6th according to the U.S. Labor Department today. Jobless claims totaled 601,000 new unemployed worker claims, a decline of 24,000 from the week prior that had a revised 625,000 initial jobless claims.  This is the lowest new claims level since January and was better than forecasts expecting approximately 615,000 claims for the week. The 4-week moving average of unemployed workers fell by 10,500 workers from the prior week to 621,750 workers.

Meanwhile, workers seeking continued claims for unemployment benefits for the week ending May 30th grew by 59,000 workers to a total of 6,816,000 unemployed workers and marked a new record high for continuing claims.  The four week moving average of continuing claims grew by 57,250 workers from the previous week to 6,750,500 workers.

Forex Market – US Dollar falling in Forex today.

The U.S. dollar has been falling lower in forex trading today after the positive retail sales news. The dollar has fallen versus the euro, pound, franc, aussie, kiwi and loonie while gaining versus the yen.

The euro has advanced versus the dollar today as the EUR/USD has risen from today’s 1.4028 opening(00:00 GMT) to trading at approximately 1.4101 in the afternoon of the US trading session at 12:59pm EST according to currency data by Oanda.

The British pound has increased today versus the American currency as the GBP/USD has gone from the 1.6407 opening to trading at 1.6549 dollars per pound.

The dollar is virtually unchanged against the Japanese yen at the time of writing as the USD/JPY trades near its 97.89 opening exchange rate.

The dollar has fallen against the Canadian loonie dollar after opening at 1.1048 earlier today to trading later at 1.0976.

The USD is falling against the Swiss franc after the USD/CHF’s opening at 1.0778 to trading at the 1.0709 exchange rate.

The Australian dollar has advanced as the AUD/USD has gone from 0.8090 to trading at 0.8227 while the New Zealand dollar (NZD/USD) has climbed from 0.6359 usd per nzd to trading at 0.6458.

EUR/USD Chart – The Euro advancing against the US Dollar in Forex Trading today and trading back over the 1.4100 threshold above the 21-day moving average in green.

We are going to keep an eye on the Canadian Dollar today. The Bank of Canada’s governor is giving a speech today in New York and the text of the speech will be released at 13:35 EST.

Bank of Canada has released statements in the last few weeks that the recent strength of the Canadian Dollar may hurt Canada’s economic recovery prospects.

With this pending speech in mind, we took a look at some charts and found a favorable set up in EUR/CAD. Our chart below seems to be setting up for one of our favorite technical plays, the false break out. We will watch this chart throughout the morning to see if we can confirm a move higher in EUR/CAD (which means a lower Canadian Dollar). If so, we will go long just before the governor’s speech is released.

Stay Nimble!

Stephen Leahy
Back Bay FX Services, LLC
www.backbayfx.com

Thanks to FX Solutions and Accucharts for the below images.

Source: ForexYard

With the recent volatility in the forex market, one currency pair seems to stand out: the EUR/USD. This pair has been range-trading for the previous week as the two currencies struggle for dominance of the currency market. With this weekend’s G8 summit on the global financial system, traders will no doubt anticipate a higher level of volatility among this primary currency pair after the world’s economic leaders meet.

Economic News

USD – USD Advances after Treasury Auction

The Dollar advanced Wednesday against the EUR and JPY after an auction of 10-year U.S. Treasury notes achieved higher than expected yields. Selling off of stocks after the auction intensified the losses among risk-sensitive currencies. The USD fell earlier after Russia’s central bank said it will diversify its currency reserves by cutting U.S. Treasury purchases and buying IMF-backed bonds.

The Dollar also fell 6.6% versus the EUR in May on speculation the ever expanding U.S. budget deficit and the Federal Reserve’s increase of the money supply will undermine the greenback. The U.S. budget deficit climbed to $189.7 billion in May, a record for the month which prompted some concerns of the Dollar’s collapse. In light of this, it appears that U.S. fiscal and monetary policy will provide indications on the outlook for the Dollar as markets currently associate an improving economic outlook with a possible tightening of monetary policy.

A Federal Reserve survey know as the “Beige Book” which was released Wednesday showed that economic conditions remain weak and even deteriorated in several regions of the country, with commercial real estate and labor markets continuing to struggle. Traders should pay close attention to Core Retail Sales and Unemployment Claims to be released today at 12:30 GMT for further insight in to the state of the U.S economy. The likelihood that the greenback will continue to rise against some of its main currency rivals appears stronger than usual today.

EUR – EUR Trims Losses against USD

After a downward turn against the USD, the EUR rebounded from its session low of $1.3914 and trimmed its losses following a rise in the equity markets. Wednesday the EUR ended at $1.3987, down from $1.4075 late Tuesday and at 137.47 Yen, up from 137.10. The Pound Sterling was at $1.6355, up from $1.6333. The Pound advanced against the EUR to the highest level since December after a government report showed manufacturing in the U.K. expanded for a second consecutive month and stocks gained.

The EUR/USD pair seems to have settled into a trading range with the EUR fluctuating between $1.38 and $1.42. This trend is likely to continue until the end of the week. However, with high oil prices and diminishing risk aversion it is likely that the EUR will resume its bullish trend as the underlying sentiment is still negative for the Dollar.

With a slow news days for the Euro-Zone today and Friday, investors are waiting for the weekend G8 meeting to start this Friday for a better assessment of the direction the participating economies will take. The EUR’s recent strength makes it a excellent forerunner in today’s market, but regional uncertainties have captivated traders lately and made the forex market less predictable.

JPY – JPY Trading Down against Currency Rivals

The JPY declined yesterday against most major currencies as speculation regarding a global recovery encouraged investors to buy higher yielding assets outside of Japan, selling the Japanese currency. The Yen was at 137.21 per EUR Wednesday and at 98.21 per USD, following a 0.8% drop. As the anxiety about financial turmoil retreats, people are willing to buy riskier currencies which offer higher yields while funding that with safer currencies such as the Yen and the Dollar.

The Japanese Yen is likely to continue to weaken as improving risk appetite brought on by advances in the Asian stock market is likely to encourage investors to turn to overseas assets offering higher returns, promoting Japanese capital outflows. As a result, the JPY’s target rates today should be lower against its currency counterparts.

Crude Oil – Oil Soars above $72 a Barrel

Crude Oil rose to a 7-month high after a government report showed that U.S. crude supplies unexpectedly fell. Stockpiles of oil dropped 4.38 million barrels to 361.6 million in the week ended June 5, the Energy Department said Wednesday. Crude Oil for July delivery rose to another record price this morning by reaching $72.04 a barrel.

Oil demand is still pretty weak across the globe despite a slight increase in demand in the U.S. Commodity futures which have increased this year as the Dollar weakened and equity markets rebounded. Still, the fundamentals don’t support prices at these levels and Oil’s current strength might be a result of momentum-trading as investors turn to higher yielding assets amid rising confidence of global recovery. Fears over rising inflation may also assist in Crude Oil’s rise as investors look for assets that can offer protection against rising inflation.

Technical News

EUR/USD

The price of this pair has been sending mixed signals over the past few days as it continues to trade in a wide range. There appears to be a bearish cross on the hourly chart’s Slow Stochastic; however, a fresh bullish cross has just occurred on the hourly chart’s MACD. With bullish and bearish crosses on the MACDs of the 4-hour and daily charts, respectively, traders may find it difficult to choose a direction. Waiting for a clearer signal might be a wise choice today.

GBP/USD

The price of this pair appears to be floating in the over-bought territory on the RSI of the 4-hour chart, signaling an impending bearish move. The fresh bearish crosses on the hourly chart’s Slow Stochastic and MACD support this notion. Going short appears to be a good strategy today.

USD/JPY

The oscillators on this pair have recently completed a number of bearish crosses, and have exited the over-bought territory on the RSIs. As of now, the price is on a slippery downward slope. However, indications on the hourly chart are beginning to show signs of opposing pressure as the downward movement may be coming to an end. If it breaches the next support line, a strong downward move may occur; however, if it fails to breach, traders may expect an upward correction throughout the day.

USD/CHF

The price of this pair appears to be floating in the over-sold territory on the 4-hour chart’s RSI, indicating an imminent upward correction. The fresh bullish cross on the hourly chart’s Slow Stochastic supports this notion. Going long might be a wise move today.

The Wild Card – EUR/NOK

The price of this pair has just entered the over-sold territory on the hourly chart’s RSI, signaling upward pressure. The fresh bullish crosses on the MACD of the hourly and 4-hour charts support the notion of an impending bullish correction. By entering early long positions, forex traders can enter the market on this pair, and at a great starting price.

Forex Market Analysis provided by Forex Yard.

© 2006 by FxYard Ltd

Disclaimer: Trading Foreign Exchange carries a high level of risk and may not be suitable for all investors. There is a possibility that you could sustain a loss of all of your investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with Foreign Exchange trading.

By Adam Hewison

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By GCI Fx Research

€

The euro moved higher vis-à-vis the U.S. dollar today as the single currency tested offers around the US$ 1.4140 level and was supported around the $1.4050 level.  The common currency moved higher after the Central Bank of the Russian Federation Deputy Chairman Ulyukayev said the central bank is reducing its holdings of gold and U.S. Treasury bonds in favour of bonds issued by the International Monetary Fund.  There is a Sino-Russian movement afoot to develop a new international reserve currency to reduce dependence on the U.S. dollar and this will have a negative impact on the greenback.  In eurozone news, German April industrial production was off 1.9% m/m while French industrial production was off 1.4% m/m.  Group of Seven finance ministers will convene in Italy later this week to discuss their exit strategies from the ongoing economic and financial crisis.  Other data released today saw German May consumer price inflation off 0.1% m/m and flat y/y.  European Central Bank member Quaden said eurozone interest rates are at “appropriate” levels now, adding the ECB does not need an “accommodating” monetary policy in the long term.  Euro bids are cited around the US$ 1.3435 level.

¥/ CNY

The yen depreciated vis-à-vis the U.S. dollar today as the greenback tested offers around the ¥98.10 level and was supported around the ¥97.10 level.  The yen was given across the board as the global equities rally continued and investors moved into higher-yielding currencies.  Data released in Japan overnight saw the May domestic corporate goods price index decline 0.4% m/m and 5.4% y/y.  Also, April core machinery orders were off 5.4% m/m, the second consecutive monthly decline, and were off 32.8% y/y.  The Nikkei 225 stock index climbed 2.09% to close at ¥9,991.49.  U.S. dollar offers are cited around the ¥104.15 level.  The euro moved higher vis-à-vis the yen as the single currency tested offers around the ¥138.35 level and was supported around the ¥136.65 level.  The British pound moved higher vis-à-vis the yen as sterling tested offers around the ¥159.15 level while the Swiss franc moved higher vis-à-vis the yen and tested offers around the ¥90.45 level. In Chinese news, the U.S. dollar weakened vis-à-vis the Chinese yuan as the greenback closed at CNY 6.8323 in the over-the-counter market, down from CNY 6.8344.  Data released in China overnight saw May consumer prices off 0.3% m/m and 1.4% y/y while May producer prices were off 7.2%.

Daily Market Commentary provided by GCI Financial Ltd.

GCI Financial Ltd (”GCI”) is a regulated securities and commodities trading firm, specializing in online Foreign Exchange (”Forex”) brokerage. GCI executes billions of dollars per month in foreign exchange transactions alone. In addition to Forex, GCI is a primary market maker in Contracts for Difference (”CFDs”) on shares, indices and futures, and offers one of the fastest growing online CFD trading services. GCI has over 10,000 clients worldwide, including individual traders, institutions, and money managers. GCI provides an advanced, secure, and comprehensive online trading system. Client funds are insured and held in a separate customer account. In addition, GCI Financial Ltd maintains Net Capital in excess of minimum regulatory requirements.

DISCLAIMER: GCI’s Daily Market Commentary is provided for informational purposes only. The information contained in these reports is gathered from reputable news sources and is not intended to be U.S.ed as investment advice. GCI assumes no responsibility or liability from gains or losses incurred by the information herein contained.

By CountingPips.com

The United States trade deficit edged up in April for the second consecutive month after decreasing for seven straight months according to a release by the Commerce Department today. The U.S. trade deficit increased by 2.2 percent as the deficit registered $29.2 billion in April following a revised deficit of $28.5 billion in March. The trade balance had reached a nine year low in February with a deficit of $26.1 billion. Today’s data surpassed market forecasts that were expecting a deficit of approximately $28.7 billion for the month.

The U.S. had a total of $121.1 billion worth of exports in April which was a decrease of $2.8 billion from March’s total. April’s exports total marked the lowest level since July of 2006.  April also saw a reduction in imports as it totaled $150.3 billion worth of imports compared with $152.5 billion in March for a decrease of $2.2 billion for the month.

The U.S. trade deficit with China increased in April with a $16.8 billion shortfall after a deficit of $15.6 billion in March. Other notable deficits that also rose in April were the deficits with the European Union at $5.3 billion, Mexico at $4.1 billion, Japan at $3.2 billion and OPEC at $3.6 billion. The U.S. trade surpluses with other countries for April included Hong Kong at $1.4 billion, Australia at $0.6 billion, Singapore at $0.3 billion and Egypt at $0.2 billion.

Forex Market – US Dollar gaining in Forex Trading today.

The U.S. dollar has been stronger in forex trading so far today as the dollar has gained versus the euro, Canadian dollar, Swiss franc, Australian dollar, New Zealand dollar and Japanese yen while falling against the British pound.

The euro has declined versus the dollar today as the EUR/USD has fallen from today’s 1.4074 opening(00:00 GMT) to trading at approximately 1.4011 in the morning of the US trading session at 10:41am EST according to currency data by Oanda.

The British pound has increased today versus the American currency as the GBP/USD has gone from the 1.6321 opening to trading at 1.6369 dollars per pound.

The dollar has gained against the Japanese yen as the USD/JPY has risen from its 97.67 opening to trading at 98.04 yen per usd. The dollar has increased against the Canadian loonie dollar after opening at 1.1037 earlier today to trading at 1.1102 while the USD has also increased against the Swiss franc after the USD/CHF’s opening at 1.0783 to trading at the 1.0803 exchange rate.

The New Zealand dollar has decreased slightly against the USD as the NZD/USD has declined from 0.6295 usd per nzd to trading at 0.6279 while the Australian dollar has also declined very slightly against the greenback. The AUD/USD trades at 0.8038 after opening the day at 0.8047.

USD/CAD Chart – The US Dollar advancing against the Canadian Dollar in Forex Trading today and breaking a recent hourly downtrend to break back above the 1.1100 exchange rate.

By Fast Brokers – The EUR/USD is rebounding past 1.40 despite weaker than expected industrial production numbers from both Germany and France over the past two sessions.  Therefore, the EUR/USD is taking its cue from rising crude and S&P futures along with an appreciating Pound following Britain’s positive manufacturing production release.  In fact, the EUR/GBP is falling beneath key lows meaning there could be accelerated losses in the near-term, exemplifying the relative weakness of the Euro.  Even though volume to the upside has been weaker than to the downside over the past week, the EUR/USD is back above the psychological 1.40 level.  This is an important step in the uptrend regaining its footing.  However, the large volume we saw to the downside is still a bit disconcerting.  We are not fazed by the volatility and will need a fundamental confirmation to the upside to feel comfortable with an optimistic outlook on the EUR/USD.  The key test will be our 2nd tier downtrend line.  If the EUR/USD can climb over the 2nd tier, we may see near-term gains accelerate past previous June highs.  However, there is quite a ways to go.

While EU economic data continues to come in mixed, the S&P futures are knocking at 2009 highs.  Therefore, despite the current negative tendency of the Euro, the EUR/USD is inclined to follow U.S. equities higher due to their positive correlation.  Improvement in U.S. equities implies a recovery in the global economy, and consequently stabilization in the Euro zone’s economy.  We may just not see as large of movements from the Euro to the upside for the time being.

Fundamentally, we find resistances of 1.4139, 1.4185, 1.4220, 1.4242, 1.4286, and 1.4325.  To the downside, we see supports of 1.4105, 1.4056, 1.4020, 1.3964, and 1.3921.  The 1.40 area serves as a psychological support with 1.45 acting as a psychological cushion.  The EUR/USD is currently exchanging at 1.4110.

Market Commentary provided by Fast Brokers.

Disclaimer: FastBrokers’ market commentary is provided for information purposes only and under no circumstances should be regardedneither as an investment advice nor as a solicitation or an offer to sell/buy any financial product. FastBrokers assumes no responsibility or liability from gains or losses incurred by the information herein contained.

Risk Disclosure: There is a substantial risk of loss in trading futures and foreign exchange. Please carefully review all risk disclosure documents before opening an account as these financial instruments are not appropriate for all investors.

By Fast Brokers – The Cable has jumped over our 2nd tier downtrend line as investors celebrate a better than expected manufacturing production number, accompanied by an upward revision of the previous release.  Meanwhile, investors seem to be ignoring the declining trade balance, signifying a rise in imports and/or decrease in exports.  Since recent data shows consumption is improving in Britain, we assume the declining trade balance indicates a rise in imports.  Overall, we continue to see positive progression in Britain’s economy.

Despite the GBP/USD’s encouraging recovery on climbing volume, we haven’t seen volume to the upside match the volume during last week’s pullback.  Therefore, we are still cautious and waiting to see how the GBP/USD behaves should it approach our 3rd tier downtrend line.  If the Cable can get past our 3rd tier on rising volume, then we will be comfortable re-activating our positive outlook on the currency pair.  Meanwhile, the S&P futures are rallying, trading just beneath 2009 highs.  If U.S. equities breakout to the upside, the Cable might find the strength to get past our 3rd tier downtrend line and previous June highs.  The EUR/USD is facing a similar obstacle to the upside, showing we haven’t eclipsed the impact from last week’s downturn yet.  Hence, we are sticking to the evaluation that we may be heading into a new near-term downtrend unless the Cable overcomes the aforementioned barriers to the upside.  Britain will be pretty quiet for the remainder of the week news-wise, seemingly leaving its immediate-term performance in the hands of U.S. equities.

Fundamentally, we find resistances of 1.6371, 1.6412, 1.6458, 1.6497, and 1.6574.  To the downside, we see supports of 1.6315, 1.6270, 1.6219, 1.6111, and 1.6054.  The 1.60 level acts as a psychological cushion with 1.65 serving as a psychological barrier.  The GBP/USD is currently exchanging at 1.6386.

Market Commentary provided by Fast Brokers.

Disclaimer: FastBrokers’ market commentary is provided for information purposes only and under no circumstances should be regardedneither as an investment advice nor as a solicitation or an offer to sell/buy any financial product. FastBrokers assumes no responsibility or liability from gains or losses incurred by the information herein contained.

Risk Disclosure: There is a substantial risk of loss in trading futures and foreign exchange. Please carefully review all risk disclosure documents before opening an account as these financial instruments are not appropriate for all investors.