Author: FX_Trdr

The city of Detroit’s effort to declare some of its general obligation bonds as unsecured debt will be challenged in bankruptcy court Wednesday in what could be a precedent-setting turn in the largest-ever municipal bankruptcy in U.S. history. The issue in front of federal bankruptcy Judge Steven Rhodes is whether a pledge of Detroit tax revenue to pay off the voter-approved bond issues is a binding obligation under Michigan law, as argued by bond insurers in two lawsuits, or merely a promise.

By CountingPips.com

Last Week’s Recap & Notable Data Points:

Last week we saw the US dollar on the defensive against all of the other major currencies with overall declines against the euro, British pound sterling, Japanese yen, Swiss franc, Canadian dollar, Australian dollar and the New Zealand dollar for the week. The major out-performer was the British pound sterling as the GBP surged on expectations that the Bank of England could be the first of the major central banks to raise interest rates with UK economic data coming in better than expected recently.

David Song, Currency Analyst at DailyFX, summarized the upbeat GBPUSD outlook.

“The British Pound rallied to a fresh yearly high of 1.6722 following the Bank of England (BoE) Inflation Report, and the GBPUSD may press higher next week should the fundamental developments coming out of the U.K. highlight a stronger recovery for 2014. It seems as though the BoE removed the 7% unemployment threshold as jobless claims are expected to contract for 14 consecutive months in January, and the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) Meeting Minutes may spur a further shift in the policy outlook should we see a growing number of central bank officials show a greater willingness to normalize monetary policy sooner rather than later.”

Here are the major economic results from last week:

• Australian employment change came in below expectations with a decline of 3.7 thousand jobs in January, the unemployment rate increased to 6.0%
• United States advance retail sales fell by 0.4% in January compared to an expectation of a 0.1% decline
• China’s consumer price index rose year-over-year by 2.5% in January just a tick above the market expectations of 2.4% rise
• Eurozone GDP for the 4th quarter increased by 0.5% year over year and beat market expectations of a 0.4% rise
• French 4th quarter GDP rose by 0.8%, German 4th quarter GDP rose by 1.4% – both YOY readings beat market forecasts
• US University of Michigan consumer confidence survey came in at 81.2 score and  surpassed market expectations of an 80.2 rating

This Week’s Outlook: Consumer Prices on tap for UK, US, Canada this week

The top economic releases of the week include data from the UK, Japan, Canada and the United States. Early in the week, we will see the Japanese GDP report for the 4th quarter of 2013 with a forecast for a 0.7 percent increase. On Tuesday, the United Kingdom consumer price index is scheduled for release while the German ZEW economic survey is also released from the Eurozone. Wednesday will have interest rate meeting minutes from both the UK and the US – both could have an impact on the markets. Thursday, we have the United States consumer price index and on Friday we have the consumer price index out of Canada.

Here’s a quick rundown of this week’s major economic highlights:

Sunday, February 16
Japan — GDP report

Monday, February 17 – US/Canada Holiday
Japan — Bank of Japan monetary policy

Tuesday, February 18
United Kingdom — consumer price index
Eurozone — German ZEW economic survey
United States — net long term TIC flows

Wednesday, February 19th
United Kingdom — weekly jobless claims
United Kingdom — Bank of England minutes
United States — housing starts/building permits
United States — Federal Reserve meeting minutes

Thursday, February 20
China — HSBC manufacturing PMI
Switzerland — trade balance
United States — consumer price index
United States — weekly jobless claims
United States — Philadelphia Federal Reserve survey
United States — leading indicators

Friday, February 21
United Kingdom — retail sales
Canada — consumer price index
Canada — Bank of Canada CPI core
United States — existing home sales

Please see our full calendar for a complete listing of economic events.

By CountingPips.com

Large Speculator bullish bets edged lower to $19.24 billion on February 11th

The latest data for the weekly Commitments of Traders (COT) report, released by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) on Friday, showed that large traders and futures speculators slightly trimmed their overall bullish position of the US dollar last week.

Non-commercial large futures traders, including hedge funds and large International Monetary Market speculators, had an overall US dollar long position totaling $19.24 billion as of Tuesday February 11th, according to data from Reuters. This was a weekly change of -$1.48 billion from the $20.72 billion total bullish position that was registered on February 4th, according to the calculations by Reuters that totals the US dollar contracts against the combined contracts of the euro, British pound, Japanese yen, Australian dollar, Canadian dollar and the Swiss franc.

Helping to decrease the US dollar aggregate position were improvements in the net positions for the euro and the Australian dollar last week while the other currencies saw relatively small net gains or losses in contracts.

Net Contract Standings for the week:

Individual Currencies – Large Speculator Weekly changes:

The non-commercial net positions for each of the individual currencies directly against the US dollar showed weekly gains for the euro, Canadian dollar, Australian dollar and the Mexican peso while there were weekly declines for the Japanese yen, British pound sterling, Swiss franc and the New Zealand dollar. See charts & data below.

Individual Currency Charts: Large & Small Speculator Positions vs Spot Price

EuroFX:

Last Six Weeks data for EuroFX futures

British Pound Sterling:

Last Six Weeks data for Pound Sterling futures

Japanese Yen:

Last Six Weeks data for Yen Futures

Swiss Franc:

Last Six Weeks data for Franc futures

Canadian Dollar:

Last Six Weeks data for Canadian dollar futures

Australian Dollar:

Last Six Weeks data for Australian dollar futures

New Zealand Dollar:

Last Six Weeks data for New Zealand dollar futures

Mexican Peso:

Last Six Weeks data for Mexican Peso futures

*COT Report: The weekly commitment of traders report summarizes the total trader positions for open contracts in the futures trading markets. The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators).

The Commitment of Traders report is published every Friday by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) and shows futures positions data that was reported as of the previous Tuesday (3 days behind).

Each currency contract is a quote for that currency directly against the U.S. dollar, a net short amount of contracts means that more speculators are betting that currency to fall against the dollar and a net long position expect that currency to rise versus the dollar.

(The graphs overlay the forex spot closing price of each Tuesday when COT trader positions are reported for each corresponding spot currency pair.)

See more information and explanation on the weekly COT report from the CFTC website.

Article by CountingPips.com – Forex Apps & News

By CountingPips.com

Weekly CFTC Net Speculator Report

Large Speculators positions continue to be at most bearish level since December 31st

10 Year Treasuries: Large futures market traders added to their overall bearish positions in the 10-year treasury note futures for a fourth straight week last week, according to the latest Commitment of Traders (COT) data released by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) on Friday.

The non-commercial futures contracts of the 10-year treasury notes, traded by large speculators and hedge funds, totaled a net position of -142,533 contracts in the data reported for February 11th. This was a change of -7,232 contracts from the previous week’s total of -135,301 net contracts that was registered on February 4th. This latest data pushes the 10-Year large speculator positions to a new most bearish level since December 31st when net positions equaled -173,674 contracts.

Over the same reporting time-frame, from Tuesday February 4th to Tuesday February 11th, the yield on the 10-Year treasury note rose from 2.64 to a yield of 2.75, according to data from the United States Treasury Department.

Last 6 Weeks of Large Trader Non-Commercial Positions

*COT Report: The weekly commitment of traders report summarizes the total trader positions for open contracts in the futures trading markets. The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators). Find CFTC criteria here: (http://www.cftc.gov/MarketReports/CommitmentsofTraders/ExplanatoryNotes/index.htm).

Article by CountingPips.com – Forex Trading Apps

By CountingPips.com

Weekly CFTC Net Speculator Report

VIX Futures Contracts: Large trader and speculator positions cut back on bearish bets for a second consecutive week in the VIX futures market last week, according to the latest data from the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) released on Friday.

The VIX non-commercial futures contracts, primarily traded by large speculators and hedge funds, totaled a net position of -41,108 contracts in the data reported for February 11th. This was a change of +10,122 contracts from the previous week’s total of -51,230 net contracts that was registered on February 4th.

The VIX index, meanwhile, fell from the highest level since October (on February 4th) to below the 15.00 threshold for the first time in three weeks. The VIX, a popular measurement of 30-day volatility expectations in S&P 500 options, declined from 19.11 on Tuesday February 4th to a 14.51 reading on Tuesday February 11th, according to the Chicago Board Options Exchange (CBOE) Volatility Index.

Last 6 Weeks of Large Trader Positions

*COT Report: The weekly commitment of traders report summarizes the total trader positions for open contracts in the futures trading markets. The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators). Find CFTC criteria here: (http://www.cftc.gov/MarketReports/CommitmentsofTraders/ExplanatoryNotes/index.htm).

Article by CountingPips.com – Forex Apps & Analysis

2014.02.14 13:30 6:30AM ET | EURUSD Currency Pair

Here are the Pivot Points Levels with Support (S) and Resistance (R) for the EURUSD currency pair today. Price action is currently trading at the 1.36918 price level and over the daily pivot point, according to data at 6:30 AM ET. The EURUSD high for the day has been 1.37131 while the low of day has reached to 1.36731. The pair earlier today opened the Asian trading session modestly above the daily pivot and has trended higher over the course of the day with resistance being found above the 1.3700 area.

Daily Pivot Point: 1.36514
— S1 – 1.36118
— S2 – 1.35446
— S3 – 1.35050
— R1 – 1.37186
— R2 – 1.37582
— R3 – 1.38254

Weekly Pivot Points: EURUSD

Prices are currently trading over the weekly pivot point at time of writing. The EURUSD has been on an overall bullish trend this week after opening the trading week above the weekly pivot. Prices found support at the pivot area in the middle of the week and pushed the EURUSD to test the 1.3700 level.

Weekly Pivot Point: 1.35838
— S1 – 1.35252
— S2 – 1.34176
— S3 – 1.33590
— R1 – 1.36914
— R2 – 1.37500
— R3 – 1.38576

By CountingPips.com – Forex Trading Apps & Currency Trade Tools

Disclaimer: Foreign Currency trading and trading on margin carries a high level of risk and volatility and can result in loss of part or all of your investment. All information and opinions contained do not constitute investment advice and accuracy of prices, charts, calculations cannot be guaranteed.

2014.02.14 13:30 6:30AM ET | USDJPY Currency Pair

Here are the Pivot Points Levels with Support (S) and Resistance (R) for the USDJPY currency pair today. Price action is currently trading at the 101.802 price level and below the daily pivot point, according to data at 6:30 AM ET. The USDJPY high for the day has been 102.400 while the low of day has reached to 101.561. The pair earlier today opened the Asian trading session above the daily pivot and has trended lower today with support being found around the S1 support level.

Daily Pivot Point: 102.133
— S1 – 101.710
— S2 – 101.264
— S3 – 100.841
— R1 – 102.579
— R2 – 103.002
— R3 – 103.448

Weekly Pivot Points: USDJPY

Prices are currently trading just under the weekly pivot point on last day of trading this week. The USDJPY has been on an overall bearish trend this week after opening the trading week above the weekly pivot and has fallen below the 102 trading level.

Weekly Pivot Point: 101.869
— S1 – 101.169
— S2 – 100.046
— S3 – 99.346
— R1 – 102.992
— R2 – 103.692
— R3 – 104.815

By CountingPips.com – Forex Trading Apps & Currency Trade Tools

Disclaimer: Foreign Currency trading and trading on margin carries a high level of risk and volatility and can result in loss of part or all of your investment. All information and opinions contained do not constitute investment advice and accuracy of prices, charts, calculations cannot be guaranteed.

2014.02.14 13:30 6:30AM ET | USDCHF Currency Pair

Here are the Pivot Points Levels with Support (S) and Resistance (R) for the USDCHF currency pair today. Price action is currently trading at the 0.89248 price level and under the daily pivot point, according to data at 6:30 AM ET. The USDCHF high for the day has been 0.89398 while the low of day has been reached at 0.89021. The pair earlier today opened the Asian trading session below the daily pivot and has trended slightly lower as the day has progressed.

Daily Pivot Point: 0.89531
— S1 – 0.88974
— S2 – 0.88617
— S3 – 0.88060
— R1 – 0.89888
— R2 – 0.90445
— R3 – 0.90802

Weekly Pivot Points: USDCHF

Prices are currently trading under the weekly pivot point and below the S1 support level on last day of trading this week. The USDCHF has been on an overall bearish trend this week after opening the trading week below the weekly pivot and the 0.9000 threshold.

Weekly Pivot Point: 0.90062
— S1 – 0.89318
— S2 – 0.88841
— S3 – 0.88097
— R1 – 0.90539
— R2 – 0.91283
— R3 – 0.91760

By CountingPips.com – Forex Trading Apps & Currency Trade Tools

Disclaimer: Foreign Currency trading and trading on margin carries a high level of risk and volatility and can result in loss of part or all of your investment. All information and opinions contained do not constitute investment advice and accuracy of prices, charts, calculations cannot be guaranteed.

2014.02.14 13:30 6:30AM ET | GBPUSD Currency Pair

Here are the Pivot Points Levels with Support (S) and Resistance (R) for the GBPUSD currency pair today. Price action is currently trading over the daily pivot point and at the 1.67026 price level, according to data at 6:30 AM ET. The GBPUSD high for the day has been 1.67154 while the low of day has reached to 1.66434. The pair earlier today opened the Asian trading session slightly above the daily pivot and has trended higher over the R1 resistance level at current time.

Daily Pivot Point: 1.66401
— S1 – 1.66078
— S2 – 1.65594
— S3 – 1.65271
— R1 – 1.66885
— R2 – 1.67208
— R3 – 1.67692

Weekly Pivot Points: GBPUSD

Prices are currently trading over the weekly pivot point and higher than the R3 resistance level on the last day of trading this week. The GBPUSD has been on an overall bullish trend this week after opening the trading week only slightly above the weekly pivot.

Weekly Pivot Point: 1.63666
— S1 – 1.62936
— S2 – 1.61778
— S3 – 1.61048
— R1 – 1.64824
— R2 – 1.65554
— R3 – 1.66712

By CountingPips.com – Forex Trading Apps & Currency Trade Tools

Disclaimer: Foreign Currency trading and trading on margin carries a high level of risk and volatility and can result in loss of part or all of your investment. All information and opinions contained do not constitute investment advice and accuracy of prices, charts, calculations cannot be guaranteed.

2014.02.13 13:30 6:30AM ET | USDJPY Currency Pair

Here are the Pivot Points Levels with Support (S) and Resistance (R) for the USDJPY currency pair today. Price action is currently trading at the 101.922 price level and under the daily pivot point, according to data at 6:30 AM ET. The USDJPY high for the day has been 102.557 while the low of day has reached to 101.863. The pair earlier today opened the Asian trading session above the daily pivot and has trended sharply lower today with prices falling below the S2 support level and under the 102 exchange rate.

Daily Pivot Point: 102.467
— S1 – 102.263
— S2 – 102.010
— S3 – 101.806
— R1 – 102.720
— R2 – 102.924
— R3 – 103.177

Weekly Pivot Points: USDJPY

Prices are currently trading just over the weekly pivot point at time of writing. The USDJPY has been on an overall bearish trend this week after opening the trading week above the weekly pivot and near 102.50 threshold.

Weekly Pivot Point: 101.869
— S1 – 101.169
— S2 – 100.046
— S3 – 99.346
— R1 – 102.992
— R2 – 103.692
— R3 – 104.815

By CountingPips.com – Forex Trading Apps & Currency Trade Tools

Disclaimer: Foreign Currency trading and trading on margin carries a high level of risk and volatility and can result in loss of part or all of your investment. All information and opinions contained do not constitute investment advice and accuracy of prices, charts, calculations cannot be guaranteed.