U.S. Trade Balance May Lead to Dollar Losses

By Dan Eduard – U.S. imports most likely increased in February, which if true, would signal further growth in the American economy. This is the prevailing sentiment among analysts ahead of the monthly Trade Balance report scheduled to be released at 12:30 GMT today. While imports appear to be on the rise, there is still cause for concern regarding the U.S. export market, which is not forecasted to see the same level of growth. The trade balance figure, which measures the difference in value for imported and exported goods and services, is predicted to come in at -38.5B. If correct, the figure would be slightly worse then last month’s figure of -37.3B.

Last month, the U.S. trade balance unexpectedly improved, which gave the Dollar a boost against its major counterparts, especially the Canadian Dollar. This month, traders can expect the greenback to fall slightly, providing the figure comes in as predicted. That being said, a better then expected result could help USD recoup some of its recent losses to the Euro.

Tomorrow, traders will want to pay close attention to the testimony from Fed Chairman Bernanke. A speech by the Fed Chairman typically leads to market volatility, and tomorrow should be no different. Traders will want to pay attention to any talk regarding interest rates or long term predictions for the U.S. economy. Any positive sentiment will likely bode well for the Dollar.

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