Fundamental Forex Market Outlook for the Upcoming Week
The key fundamental events coming up this week that can strongly affect the forex market feature the U.S. Rate Decision and FOMC Statement due out on Wednesday and the IMF Meetings on Friday. These and other key economic releases due out this week are detailed further below, with the current market consensus expectations or the last result included in parenthesis whenever available.
Monday’s UK data features the Rightmove HPI (last -2.1%), while Tuesday’s key data includes the Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes from the RBA, the German and EZ ZEW Economic Sentiment survey (-43.9 and –42.3), U.S. Building Permits (0.60M), and the NZ Current Account (-0.69B).
On Wednesday, GBP traders will be watching the UK MPC Meeting Minutes (0-0-9) closely, as well as UK Public Sector Net Borrowing (11.3B). In addition, Canadian Core CPI (0.2%), U.S. Existing Home Sales (4.76M) and the FOMC’s Fed Funds Rate Decision (<0.25%) and Statement will be scrutinized. Finally, NZ GDP (0.5%) is due out later in the day.
Thursday’s important data includes China’s HSBC Flash Manufacturing PMI (49.9), Canadian Core Retail Sales (0.2%) and US Weekly Initial Jobless Claims (418K).
Friday ends the week with the RBA Financial Stability Review, the all day IMF Meetings and a speech by ECB President Trichet.
Technical Forex Market Outlook for the Upcoming Week
Figure 1: Daily EUR/USD candlestick chart showing the 200-day MA in red, trend lines in green and the 14-day RSI in blue.
EUR/USD:
Weekly Forecast: Lower
Resistance: 1.3936, 1.3972, 1.4103, 1.4147, 1.4258, 1.4279, 1.4327, 1.4499/1.4503, 1.4535/48, 1.4576, 1.4642/56, 1.4695, 1.4881, 1.4939 and 1.5144.
Support: 1.3753, 1.3703/23, 1.3626, 1.3591, 1.3517/57, 1.3420/98, 1.3333, 1.2968 and 1.2873
200-day MA: 1.4035 and rising.
14-day RSI: 38.0 and falling.
USD/JPY:
Weekly Forecast: Somewhat lower
Resistance: 76.96, 77.06, 77.30/37, 77.71, 77.85, 78.02, 78.66, 79.05, 79.40, 80.00, 80.22, 80.82, 81.34, 81.76, 82.01/22, 82.77, 83.09 and 83.77.
Support: 76.71/74, 76.28/58, 75.94, 75.00 and 70.00.
200-day MA: 80.85 and falling.
14-day RSI: 45.2 and rising.
GBP/USD:
Weekly Forecast: Lower
Resistance: 1.5839, 1.5867, 1.5883, 1.5912/19, 1.5951, 1.6000, 1.6037, 1.6081, 1.6130, 1.6204/06, 1.6252/59, 1.6332, 1.6347, 1.6434, 1.6452, 1.6500, 1.6532/98, 1.6616, 1.6720/1.6744, 1.6876 and 1.7040.
Support: 1.5777, 1.5750, 1.5744, 1.5705, 1.5500, 1.5483, 1.5343/55, 1.5293, 1.5123, 1.5000 and 1.4872.
200-day MA: 1.6127 and rising.
14-day RSI: 32.0 and falling.
AUD/USD:
Weekly Forecast: Higher
Resistance: 1.0380, 1.0396, 1.0473, 1.0481, 1.0511, 1.0564/70, 1.0599, 1.0624, 1.0633, 1.0659, 1.0683/93, 1.0718/26, 1.0763, 1.0784, 1.0909, 1.1000, 1.1010/15, 1.1064/79 and 1.1500.
Support: 1.0313, 1.0244/54, 1.0203, 1.0169/76, 1.0110, 1.0090, 1.0062, 1.0000, 0.9925, 0.9803 and 0.9704.
200-day MA: 1.0391 and rising.
14-day RSI: 43.4 and rising.
USD/CAD:
Weekly Forecast: Lower
Resistance: 0.9828, 0.9845, 0.9860, 0.9877, 0.9939, 0.9949, 0.9963/75, 0.9974/1.0000, 1.0008, 1.0030, 1.0057, 1.0088, 1.0139, 1.0208 and 1.0236.
Support: 0.9763/96, 0.9734/39, 0.9724, 0.9686, 0.9645, 0.9567, 0.9526, 0.9496, 0.9448/56, 0.9422, 0.9405/09, 0.9056 and 0.9000.
200-day MA: 97.78 and falling.
14-day RSI: 46.8 and falling.
NZD/USD:
Weekly Forecast: Higher
Resistance: 0.8327, 0.8339, 0.8365, 0.8369/86, 0.8423, 0.8469/72, 0.8500, 0.8534/75,0.8676, 0.8764, 0.8793, 0.8841, 0.9000 and 0.9500.
Support: 0.8278, 0.8269, 0.8190, 0.8175/78, 0.8150/58, 0.8140, 0.8126, 0.8117/19, 0.8109, 0.8060/93, 0.8007/44, 0.8000, 0.7971, 0.7962, 0.7950, 0.7816 and 0.7754.
200-day MA: 79.29 and rising.
14-day RSI: 48.0 and falling.
