The USD surged as Greek riots and a lack of a Greek bailout is upping the political tensions in Europe. Pressure will continue to remain on both the euro and global bourses until an agreement has been hashed out between Germany and the ECB surrounding investor participation (debt restructuring) for the next Greek bailout.
CHF – SNB Monetary Policy Assessment – 07:30 GMT
Actual: 0.25%. Expectations: 0.25%. Previous: 0.25%.
The Swiss Libor Rate was held steady earlier today by the SNB while noting exporters’ margins are beginning to come under pressure due to the strength of the franc versus the euro and the USD. The SNB sees rising inflation rates over the next three years but threats to the global outlook and CHF strength should be sufficient to keep inflation and therefore interest rates at current levels in the near term.
GBP – Retail Sales m/m – 08:30 GMT
Expectations: -0.5%. Previous: 1.1%.
Disappointing UK employment data yesterday combined with the Greek debt crisis was the trigger to send the cable below the rising trend line from the May 2010 high. Currently the GBP/USD is testing the neckline of a head and shoulders pattern at 1.6100 which would signal a reversal of the long term trend.
USD – Philly Fed Manufacturing Index – 14:00 GMT
Expectations: 7.1. Previous: 3.9.
Yesterday weak US data from the Empire State Manufacturing Index fed into the “risk off” environment and USD buying. While many are focusing on the Greek debt crisis a downturn in macroeconomic data from the US is also weighing on growth currencies and US equities. The S&P 500 fell -1.74% yesterday. Weak manufacturing numbers today may be an opportunity for further USD gains and equity losses. Early this morning the EUR/USD failed to extend its declines below 1.4100. Support under this psychological level is found at the May low at 1.3970 with the next significant technical level the 200-day moving average at 1.3810.
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