By GCI Forex Research
Fundamental Outlook at 0800 GMT (EDT + 0400)
USD
The dollar continued to surrender ground during the Asia session, and USDCHF set a new all-time low. EURUSD traded 1.3787-1.3838, USDJPY traded 81.68- 82.07. The euro and sterling remain supported by the prospect of rate hikes to tame inflationary pressures, especially as oil prices stay firm due to tensions across the Middle East and North Africa. Even a better initial jobless claims could not boost the dollar as Treasury yields remained subdued and oil prices elevated. Jobless claims fell more than anticipated, continuing the recent downtrend. January headline durable goods orders rose, while orders ex-transportation were much weaker. New home sales also fell more than expected, declining 12.6% m/m. St Louis Fed President Bullard, a non-voter in 2011, said the economic outlook has improved since QE2 was announced and that “the natural debate now is whether to complete the program, or to taper off to a somewhat lower level of asset purchases.” Our analysts team notes that this is significant because he is historically a hawk but has been very supportive of the QE2 program. He isn’t making a strong argument for curtailing the QE2 program, but is certainly highlighting the risk that the Fed might do that.
EUR
Bundesbank President Weber said interest rates can only go up in the future, which briefly boosted the euro. Bundesbank board member Dombret was also hawkish, saying that second-round price effects cannot be ruled out.
German GDP for Q4 was confirmed at 4.0% y/y, 0.4% q/q, driven by strong export growth and public spending. Our European economists note that the release shows a less balanced growth picture than in Q3, with capex down and private consumption sluggish.
Italy is planning on selling approx. EUR5 bn in 2021 bonds, EUR3 bn in 2013 bonds and EUR1.5 bn in 2017 bonds. Recent auctions have gone well, though their impact on euro sentiment has diminished given that rate hike expectations are currently dominant. Our fixed income strategy colleagues point out that the behaviour of Italian spreads appears to have become more ‘core-like’ over the past year, which could mean these auctions are well received.
GBP
BoE MPC Member Sentance stuck to his hawkish line repeating that the time has come to increase interest rates. Fellow policymaker Posen said that his view on the need for more Gilt purchases has not changed.
We expect no revision to Q4 GDP growth. The initial estimate severely disappointed, triggering a sterling selloff. However, today sterling is likely to remain supported as the market continues to focus on the prospect of an early BoE rate hike.
CHF
We expect a slight dip in the KOF leading indicator but external developments remain the key driver for the Swiss franc these days, as it continues to benefit from safe haven flows. Nevertheless, keep an eye on the data as an accommodative SNB and the end of Swiss economic outperformance could put some downward pressure on CHF.
NZD
An RBNZ spokesman denied speculation that the RBNZ is planning to hold an emergency policy meeting to address the aftermath of this week’s earthquake.
S&P became the third major ratings agency to say that New Zealand’s credit rating has not been affected by the quake.
TECHNICAL OUTLOOK
USDCHF clears 0.9329/01.
EURUSD BULLISH Rise through 1.3744 exposes 1.3826 and 1.3862 next. Near term support is at 1.3647.
USDJPY NEUTRAL Decline through 82.34 has exposed 81.78, while resistance lies at 82.89.
GBPUSD BULLISH Bullish pressure holds below 1.6279/99 resistance zone. Near-term support comes in at 1.6101.
USDCHF BEARISH Negative momentum continues; breach of 0.9329/01 support area has exposed 0.9241. Near-term resistance at 0.9506.
AUDUSD NEUTRAL 1.0158 and 0.9944 mark the near-term directional triggers.
USDCAD BEARISH Initial support is at 0.9816 ahead of 0.9745/12 area. Resistance at 0.9959.
EURCHF BEARISH Push below 1.2774 would expose 1.2709. Initial resistance at 1.2958.
EURGBP NEUTRAL Move above 0.8514 would expose 0.8533. Near-term support lies at 0.8384.
EURJPY BULLISH Focus is on 114.19, breach of this level would expose 114.94. Support holds at 112.09.
Forex Daily Market Commentary provided by GCI Financial Ltd.
GCI Financial Ltd (”GCI”) is a regulated securities and commodities trading firm, specializing in online Foreign Exchange (”Forex”) brokerage. GCI executes billions of dollars per month in foreign exchange transactions alone. In addition to Forex, GCI is a primary market maker in Contracts for Difference (”CFDs”) on shares, indices and futures, and offers one of the fastest growing online CFD trading services. GCI has over 10,000 clients worldwide, including individual traders, institutions, and money managers. GCI provides an advanced, secure, and comprehensive online trading system. Client funds are insured and held in a separate customer account. In addition, GCI Financial Ltd maintains Net Capital in excess of minimum regulatory requirements.
DISCLAIMER: GCI’s Daily Market Commentary is provided for informational purposes only. The information contained in these reports is gathered from reputable news sources and is not intended to be U.S.ed as investment advice. GCI assumes no responsibility or liability from gains or losses incurred by the information herein contained.
