USD/JPY Daily Commentary for 4.15.09

By Fast Brokers

The USD/JPY is recovering from yesterday’s losses after sinking below our 1st tier uptrend line and 2nd tier downtrend line while the currency pair exercised its past positive correlation with U.S. equities.  The move came in reaction to surprisingly negative data from the U.S., giving currency traders a reason to lose faith in America’s economic stabilization.  However, the downturn in the USD/JPY was by no means significant, exemplified by today’s recovery.  The ability for the uptrend to materialize into something substantial remains a question mark as before.  Our first tier uptrend was tight in the first place, so we set a new first tier uptrend line today.  That being said, the USD/JPY sure hasn’t shown confidence in a 100+ future.  The uptrend is very young, giving precedence to the longer-term downtrend still solidly intact.  However, don’t be fooled.  The fundamentals are still in place for a breakout in the USD/JPY.  All the currency pair needs is a true confirmation from the U.S. that we have seen the worst of the economic crisis.  Therefore, we expect to see the continuation of consolidation in the USD/JPY as investors await more earnings from financials and results from the highly anticipated stress tests.  Critical levels on each side are our 101.44 resistance and 97.11 support.  Fundamentally, our 99.79 support turns resistance while we maintain our resistances of 100.28, 100.71, 101.44, and 101.98.  To the downside, we hold our supports of 99.06, 98.16, 97.59, and 97.11 with fresh bottom-end of 96.33.  The USD/JPY is currently exchanging at 99.10.

Market Commentary provided by Fast Brokers.

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