By Natalie R. – With the FOMC meeting minutes expected to be published today at 18:15 GMT, the main question is whether or not the Fed will hold off from further purchasing securities or decide to expand the stimulus further and thus its balance sheet. With the economy showing signs of slowing for the past two quarters and unemployment enduring at 9.5% or higher for the past year, speculations began to surface the Fed will resume its quantitative easing program in order to stimulate the flailing economy. The negative economic indicators that were published over the past few weeks reinforced this assumption. The Fed is also trying to avoid deflation. The Core CPI, U.S. consumer prices excluding food and energy, rose 0.9% in July from a year earlier, the smallest increase in four decades.
It seems, however, that there is much debate within the Central Bank as well as among investors on how the Fed should continue. Members of the Federal Open Market Committee are divided over whether to renew quantitative easing which is essentially a large-scale asset purchase program. Several members believe the Fed has already done enough and that there are impediments to growth unrelated to monetary policy such as uncertainty regarding taxes and regulatory policy as well as the lagging housing sector.
The Federal Reserve has kept the benchmark interest rate at almost zero since December 2008 and bought about $1.7 trillion in securities. Additional quantitative easing can have adverse effects on inflation in the longer run as this move essentially pumps cash into the economy.
Analysts are also divided in their assumptions, largely due to the fact that the latest data has been slightly better than expected. Manufacturing in August expanded at a faster pace than forecast as factories added workers and increased production. Private employers increased payrolls by 67,000 last month, exceeding economists’ estimates.
The Federal Reserve’s move is important not only for the USD but for other currencies as well, particularly the JPY as the Bank of Japan has recently intervened in the market in order to weaken the Yen. Japan’s economy is highly dependent on export and therefore a strong currency can hinder its economic recovery. However, due to speculation of further monetary easing by the Fed, Bank of Japan Governor Masaaki Shirakawa’s attempts may be hindered as quantitative easing contributes to a weaker USD.
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