Here’s an updated chart of the fiber or EURUSD pair. In my blog back in June 12, I noted that the pair could fall after finding some resistance at the support of the descending triangle which was also almost in line with the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level that I marked. Notice, however, that at that time, the stochastics were still far from the overbought area, giving the pair more room to move higher. Over the next succeeding days, theeuro indeed continued to rise over the greenback, surpassing both the 38.2% and 50% Fibs. At present, the fiber is trading around 1.2400. And with the stochstics now in the overbought territory, it could soon resume its journey south. The presence of a bearish divergence, where the price marks lower highs and the oscillator prints higher highs, also suggest a likely downmove any time soon.
If the EUR indeed loses its support and falls, it could revisit its 2010 low at 1.1876. On the slightly positive note, a break of the 61.8% fib and the short term downtrend line could possibly send it back up to 1.3300, giving the euro bulls something to cheer about. While such price action does not necessarily lead to a bullish reversal, such would still allow those who are long to close at least part of their positions at a better price.
On the economic front, several market moving economic reports are due this week in the euro zone. Germany’s Ifo business climate survey, which is seen to have cooled a bit to 101.2 from 101.5, and the euro zone’s current account balance, which is likewise projected to have lessened a bit to €1.3 billion from €1.7 billion, will be on tap tomorrow (June 22). The latest manufacturing and services PMI from from, Germany, and the euro zone itself, most of which are expected drop slightly from their previous readings, will be on deck the next day. So the anticipated fall from these accounts plus any surprise downside from the high impact reports from the other nations like Canada’s inflation and retail sales reports, the US’s home sales and Federal rate decision, New land’s 1Q GDP report, could fundamentally weaken the euro. On the flip side,the projected gain from the euro zone’s industrial new orders (seen to grow by another 1.6%) plus any upside from the reports from the other major countries could lift the currency again.
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