Categories: Financial Market News

Currency Speculators turned bullish on US Dollar bets, Euro drops to the bearish side

By CountingPips.com

The latest data for the weekly Commitments of Traders (COT) report, released by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) on Friday, showed that large traders and speculators turned around their bets to become bullish on the US dollar last week. The previous four weeks had seen speculators and traders on the bearish side.

Non-commercial large futures traders, including hedge funds and large International Monetary Market speculators, had an overall US dollar long position totaling $4.51 billion as of Tuesday May 13th, according to the latest data from the CFTC and calculations by Reuters. This was a weekly change of +$6.54 billion from the -$2.03 billion total short position that was registered on May 6th, according to Reuters that totals the US dollar contracts against the combined contracts of the euro, British pound, Japanese yen, Australian dollar, Canadian dollar and the Swiss franc.

The US dollar aggregate bullish position is the highest USD level since March 11th when total bullish contracts equaled +$10.56 billion. The bullish gain of $6.54 billion was the largest weekly increase since November 12th 2013 when positions jumped by $7.44 billion for the week.

Overall for the week against the other major currencies, speculators bet in favor the Canadian dollar, Australian dollar and the Mexican peso last week while there were weekly declines for the euro, British pound sterling, Japanese yen, Swiss franc and the New Zealand dollar.

 

Notable changes:

  • Euro positions fell sharply over to the bearish side for the first time since February 2nd as the European Central Bank suggested they were open to easing monetary policy in June
  • British pound sterling positions fell for a 4th straight week after reaching a multi-year high on April 15th
  • Japanese Yen net positions added bearish positions after touching the lowest bearish level since October 15, 2013 the previous week
  • Swiss franc bullish positions declined by roughly half last week to +6,806 contracts
  • Australian dollar net positions rose to their best level since April 30th 2013 after turning bullish on April 8th
  • Canadian dollar positions, still bearish at -26,037 contracts, stood at the least bearish position since November 2013

 

* All currency positions are in direct relation to the US dollar where, for example, a bet for the euro is a bet that the euro will rise versus the dollar while a bet against the euro will be a bet that the dollar will gain versus the euro. Please see charts and data below.

Weekly Charts: Large Speculators Weekly Positions vs Currency Spot Price

EuroFX:

Last Six Weeks data for EuroFX futures

Date Open Interest Long Specs Short Specs Large Specs Net Weekly Change
04/08/2014 261439 92635 69335 23300 -9938
04/15/2014 270722 106252 78564 27688 4388
04/22/2014 266259 101204 75430 25774 -1914
04/29/2014 271515 102285 76551 25734 -40
05/06/2014 277013 110673 78122 32551 6817
05/13/2014 268142 84383 86558 -2175 -34726

British Pound Sterling:

Last Six Weeks data for Pound Sterling futures

Date Open Interest Long Specs Short Specs Large Specs Net Weekly Change
04/08/2014 226667 91642 45165 46477 12905
04/15/2014 226688 87472 36874 50598 4121
04/22/2014 237055 89692 41892 47800 -2798
04/29/2014 236030 85913 41679 44234 -3566
05/06/2014 241264 83794 43148 40646 -3588
05/13/2014 230333 71168 39413 31755 -8891

Japanese Yen:

Last Six Weeks data for Yen Futures

Date Open Interest Long Specs Short Specs Large Specs Net Weekly Change
04/08/2014 181814 13340 100802 -87462 1176
04/15/2014 164843 14351 83067 -68716 18746
04/22/2014 165674 16564 83807 -67243 1473
04/29/2014 168820 13846 84198 -70352 -3109
05/06/2014 167093 20381 81109 -60728 9624
05/13/2014 164707 17471 82178 -64707 -3979

Swiss Franc:

Last Six Weeks data for Franc futures

Date Open Interest Long Specs Short Specs Large Specs Net Weekly Change
04/08/2014 44752 19275 7940 11335 -2896
04/15/2014 48976 23905 9839 14066 2731
04/22/2014 46888 21732 7709 14023 -43
04/29/2014 47424 21960 8257 13703 -320
05/06/2014 55538 25102 11918 13184 -519
05/13/2014 45282 16951 10145 6806 -6378

Canadian Dollar:

Last Six Weeks data for Canadian dollar futures

Date Open Interest Long Specs Short Specs Large Specs Net Weekly Change
04/08/2014 120336 28704 63011 -34307 2687
04/15/2014 119525 28288 63714 -35426 -1119
04/22/2014 118707 27529 62984 -35455 -29
04/29/2014 123589 30093 60388 -30295 5160
05/06/2014 122287 28044 59644 -31600 -1305
05/13/2014 121632 26986 53023 -26037 5563

Australian Dollar:

Last Six Weeks data for Australian dollar futures

Date Open Interest Long Specs Short Specs Large Specs Net Weekly Change
04/08/2014 96887 37630 34320 3310 8190
04/15/2014 98933 40463 32366 8097 4787
04/22/2014 107696 49540 33170 16370 8273
04/29/2014 109934 50019 39313 10706 -5664
05/06/2014 104936 44805 36168 8637 -2069
05/13/2014 107302 50147 33020 17127 8490

New Zealand Dollar:

Last Six Weeks data for New Zealand dollar futures

Date Open Interest Long Specs Short Specs Large Specs Net Weekly Change
04/08/2014 32898 26521 6755 19766 1286
04/15/2014 33100 26671 6824 19847 81
04/22/2014 32579 26056 5881 20175 328
04/29/2014 29858 22979 4499 18480 -1695
05/06/2014 33025 25027 4334 20693 2213
05/13/2014 30932 23806 4466 19340 -1353

Mexican Peso:

Last Six Weeks data for Mexican Peso futures

Date Open Interest Long Specs Short Specs Large Specs Net Weekly Change
04/08/2014 130331 70371 13870 56501 34717
04/15/2014 131412 71038 16801 54237 -2264
04/22/2014 128932 68329 14818 53511 -726
04/29/2014 128100 68073 18455 49618 -3893
05/06/2014 146455 67663 19779 47884 -1734
05/13/2014 149209 86137 17515 68622 20738

*COT Report: The weekly commitment of traders report summarizes the total trader positions for open contracts in the futures trading markets. The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators).

The Commitment of Traders report is published every Friday by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) and shows futures positions data that was reported as of the previous Tuesday (3 days behind).

Each currency contract is a quote for that currency directly against the U.S. dollar, a net short amount of contracts means that more speculators are betting that currency to fall against the dollar and a net long position expect that currency to rise versus the dollar.

(The graphs overlay the forex spot closing price of each Tuesday when COT trader positions are reported for each corresponding spot currency pair.)

See more information and explanation on the weekly COT report from the CFTC website.

Article by CountingPips.com – Commitment of Traders (COT) reports & News

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10 years ago