Month: February 2014

As tax season gets underway, the looming threat of an audit is always near. Are there ways to avoid an audit? Jonnelle Marte joins MoneyBeat. Photo: Getty Images.

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Large Speculator bullish bets fall to $16.28 billion on February 18th

The latest data for the weekly Commitments of Traders (COT) report, released by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) on Friday, showed that large traders and futures speculators decreased their overall bullish position of the US dollar for a second straight week.

Non-commercial large futures traders, including hedge funds and large International Monetary Market speculators, had an overall US dollar long position totaling $16.28 billion as of Tuesday February 18th, according to data from Reuters. This was a weekly change of -$2.96 billion from the $19.24 billion total bullish position that was registered on February 11th, according to the calculations by Reuters that totals the US dollar contracts against the combined contracts of the euro, British pound, Japanese yen, Australian dollar, Canadian dollar and the Swiss franc.

The US dollar aggregate position is now at its lowest level since November 12th when positions totaled $14.46 billion.

Net Contract Standings for the week:

Individual Currencies – Large Speculator Weekly changes:

The non-commercial net positions for each of the individual currencies directly against the US dollar showed weekly gains for the euro, British pound sterling, Australian dollar, New Zealand dollar and the Mexican peso while there were weekly declines for the Japanese yen, Swiss franc and the Canadian dollar. See charts & data below.

Individual Currency Charts: Large & Small Speculator Positions vs Spot Price

EuroFX:

Last Six Weeks data for EuroFX futures

British Pound Sterling:

Last Six Weeks data for Pound Sterling futures

Japanese Yen:

Last Six Weeks data for Yen Futures

Swiss Franc:

Last Six Weeks data for Franc futures

Canadian Dollar:

Last Six Weeks data for Canadian dollar futures

Australian Dollar:

Last Six Weeks data for Australian dollar futures

New Zealand Dollar:

Last Six Weeks data for New Zealand dollar futures

Mexican Peso:

Last Six Weeks data for Mexican Peso futures

*COT Report: The weekly commitment of traders report summarizes the total trader positions for open contracts in the futures trading markets. The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators).

The Commitment of Traders report is published every Friday by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) and shows futures positions data that was reported as of the previous Tuesday (3 days behind).

Each currency contract is a quote for that currency directly against the U.S. dollar, a net short amount of contracts means that more speculators are betting that currency to fall against the dollar and a net long position expect that currency to rise versus the dollar.

(The graphs overlay the forex spot closing price of each Tuesday when COT trader positions are reported for each corresponding spot currency pair.)

See more information and explanation on the weekly COT report from the CFTC website.

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Weekly CFTC Net Speculator Report

Large Speculators bearish positions fall to lowest level since January 14th

10 Year Treasuries: Large futures market traders sharply decreased their overall bearish positions in the 10-year treasury note futures last week to the lowest level in over four weeks, according to the latest Commitment of Traders (COT) data released by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) on Friday.

The non-commercial futures contracts of the 10-year treasury notes, traded by large speculators and hedge funds, totaled a net position of -57,144 contracts in the data reported for February 18th. This was a change of +85,389 contracts from the previous week’s total of -142,533 net contracts that was registered on February 11th. This latest data brings bearish contracts of the 10-year note to the lowest level since January 14th when contracts were -50,790.

Over the same reporting time-frame, from Tuesday February 11th to Tuesday February 18th, the yield on the 10-Year treasury note edged lower from 2.75 to a yield of 2.71, according to data from the United States Treasury Department.

Last 6 Weeks of Large Trader Non-Commercial Positions

*COT Report: The weekly commitment of traders report summarizes the total trader positions for open contracts in the futures trading markets. The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators). Find CFTC criteria here: (http://www.cftc.gov/MarketReports/CommitmentsofTraders/ExplanatoryNotes/index.htm).

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Weekly CFTC Net Speculator Report

VIX Futures Contracts: Large traders and speculators sharply decreased their bearish bets in the VIX futures market last week to the lowest level since July, according to the latest data from the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) released on Friday.

The VIX non-commercial futures contracts, traded by large speculators and hedge funds, totaled a net position of -14,923 contracts in the data reported for February 18th. This was a change of -5,199 contracts from the previous week’s total of -41,108 net contracts that was registered on February 11th.

Net non-commercial are at their lowest level since July 2nd when net contracts equaled -14,760 as bearish positions have fallen for a third week.

The VIX index, meanwhile, declined from 14.51 on Tuesday February 11th to a 13.87 reading on Tuesday February 18th, according to the Chicago Board Options Exchange (CBOE) Volatility Index.

Last 6 Weeks of Large Trader Positions

*COT Report: The weekly commitment of traders report summarizes the total trader positions for open contracts in the futures trading markets. The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators). Find CFTC criteria here: (http://www.cftc.gov/MarketReports/CommitmentsofTraders/ExplanatoryNotes/index.htm).

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Last Week’s Recap & Notable Data Points:

Last week, the US dollar had mixed results against the other major currencies with the euro and Swiss franc gaining against the dollar while the Japanese yen, British pound sterling, Canadian dollar, Australian dollar and the New Zealand dollar all fell against the American currency.

Last week’s most interesting data point in the major economic data was perhaps the Japanese GDP report that was released on Monday. The release disappointed the market with a subpar result below market forecasts that were looking for 2.8% rise in fourth-quarter. The actual number turned out to be just a 1.0% increase in the Japanese economy for the quarter. Elsewhere, the data points were mostly close in line with their market expectations.

Here are the major economic results from last week:

• Japan GDP rose by 1.0% annualized in the fourth quarter compared to a forecast of a 2.8% increase

• United Kingdom consumer price index rose 1.9% euro year over year in January compared to a 2.0% forecast

• German ZEW survey registered a score of 55.7 compared to the forecast of 61.5

• US Consumer price index rose by 1.6% year over year in January meeting the forecasts

• Canada’s consumer price index beat expectations with a 1.5% year over year increase in January compared to a 1.3% forecast

This Week’s Outlook: GDP Reports out of US, UK, Swiss and Canada – CPI from EU, Japan

This week we have a rather busy economic data release week with the highlights being GDP reports from the US, UK, Switzerland and Canada while there is consumer price index releases from the Eurozone and Japan.

On Monday, we will see the Eurozone consumer price index for January with expectations of a 0.7% increase. On Tuesday the US consumer confidence report by the Conference Board is scheduled and on Wednesday the United Kingdom GDP report for the fourth quarter is to be released.

Thursday is a busy day with the Switzerland GDP report, the Germany employment data, the Germany consumer price index, the US durable goods orders and the Japanese consumer price index.

Finally on Friday, the Canadian GDP report and the latest US GDP report update for the fourth quarter are to be released.

Here’s a quick rundown of this week’s major economic highlights:

Monday, February 24
Eurozone — consumer price index

Tuesday, February 25
United States — consumer confidence

Wednesday, February 26
United Kingdom — GDP report

Thursday, February 27
Switzerland — GDP report
Eurozone — Germany unemployment rate
Eurozone — Germany consumer price index
United States — durable goods orders
Japan — consumer price index

Friday, February 28
Eurozone — consumer price index
Canada — GDP report
United States — GDP report

Please see our full calendar for a complete listing of economic events.

G20 finance ministers and central bankers gather for group photograph on the first day of their two-day meeting in Australia’s Sydney. Rough Cut. (No Reporter Narration).

SEC Chair Mary Jo White said the agency planned to implement a test program to trade stocks in wider increments, such as nickels, to determine whether such a change would improve the quality of the market. The pilot program would move the trading of some stocks to bigger “tick sizes,” or the difference between what traders bid and offer for the stocks.

The Federal Reserve financed most of the government’s deficit in 2013, in sharp contrast to the year before, when the Fed did not add to its holdings of Treasury securities. The American private sector appears to have been a net seller of Treasuries in 2013, but the foreign private sector was a substantial buyer, according to government estimates released this week. In 2013, the government issued a net $759 billion in Treasury securities to the public.

2014.02.21 13:30 6:30AM ET | USDJPY Currency Pair

Here are the Pivot Points Levels with Support (S) and Resistance (R) for the USDJPY currency pair today. Price action is currently trading at the 102.453 price level and over the daily pivot point, according to data at 6:30 AM ET. The USDJPY high for the day has been 102.597 while the low of day has reached to 102.258. The pair earlier today opened the Asian trading session above the daily pivot and continued to trend higher so far to just below the 102.50 exchange rate.

Daily Pivot Point: 102.109
— S1 – 101.810
— S2 – 101.359
— S3 – 101.060
— R1 – 102.560
— R2 – 102.859
— R3 – 103.310

Weekly Pivot Points: USDJPY

Prices are currently trading over the weekly pivot point on the last trading day of the week. The USDJPY has been on an overall bullish trend this week with some ups and downs taking place after opening the trading week below the weekly pivot.

Weekly Pivot Point: 102.012
— S1 – 101.330
— S2 – 100.880
— S3 – 100.198
— R1 – 102.462
— R2 – 103.144
— R3 – 103.594

By CountingPips.com – Forex Trading Apps & Currency Trade Tools

Disclaimer: Foreign Currency trading and trading on margin carries a high level of risk and volatility and can result in loss of part or all of your investment. All information and opinions contained do not constitute investment advice and accuracy of prices, charts, calculations cannot be guaranteed.

2014.02.21 13:30 6:30AM ET | USDCHF Currency Pair

Here are the Pivot Points Levels with Support (S) and Resistance (R) for the USDCHF currency pair today. Price action is currently trading at the 0.89004 price level and above the daily pivot point, according to data at 6:30 AM ET. The USDCHF high for the day has been 0.89101 while the low of day has reached to 0.88851. The pair earlier today opened the Asian trading session slightly higher than the daily pivot and has trended higher to the 0.8900 exchange rate.

Daily Pivot Point: 0.88888
— S1 – 0.88636
— S2 – 0.88331
— S3 – 0.88079
— R1 – 0.89193
— R2 – 0.89445
— R3 – 0.89750

Weekly Pivot Points: USDCHF

Prices are currently trading under the weekly pivot point at time of writing. The USDCHF has been on an overall slightly bearish trend this week after opening the trading week below the weekly pivot.

Weekly Pivot Point: 0.89533
— S1 – 0.88696
— S2 – 0.88183
— S3 – 0.87346
— R1 – 0.90046
— R2 – 0.90883
— R3 – 0.91396

By CountingPips.com – Forex Trading Apps & Currency Trade Tools

Disclaimer: Foreign Currency trading and trading on margin carries a high level of risk and volatility and can result in loss of part or all of your investment. All information and opinions contained do not constitute investment advice and accuracy of prices, charts, calculations cannot be guaranteed.