Last week, we saw the US government jobs report disappoint the markets (for a second straight month) with just 113,000 jobs created in January compared to expectations of roughly 180,000 jobs to be created. Also out of the US, we saw ISM manufacturing data come in lower at a 51.3 reading compared to a forecast of 56.0 for the month of January.
- Australia’s interest rate decision and RBA statement that the bank was satisfied with the Australian dollar exchange rate helped boost the Aussie to new heights
- European Central Bank interest rate decision and statement disappointed market participants that were looking for policy action in response to low inflation (euro rallied)
- The Bank of England maintained their interest rate at 0.50% and left unchanged the quantitative easing schedule at 375 billion
- Canada’s employment in January surpassed the market expectations with a rise of 29.4K workers and the unemployment rate fell to 7.0%
- New Zealand’s unemployment rate fell to 6.0% for the fourth quarter and in line with expectations
This Week’s Outlook:
This week’s economic calendar for the Forex market is on the light side compared to last week’s full economic calendar. The top economic releases of the week could likely be speeches by the top central bank heads on their respective economies.
Janet Yellen will provide testimony before Congress this week in her first public comments on monetary policy which will likely feature extensive testimony on the tapering of the stimulus program and the latest jobs report. The inflation report by the Bank of England Governor Mark Carney on Wednesday will be important for the direction of the British pound sterling and will shed light on possible future policy and the UK economic strength.
In addition to the important testimony this week, we will see Chinese data in the form of new yuan loans on Monday, the trade balance numbers on Wednesday and the Chinese consumer price index on Friday. There will also be government employment data out of Australia on Thursday, the US retail sales data also on Thursday and the euro zone GDP report for the fourth quarter of 2013 is scheduled for release on Friday.
This week’s major economic highlights:
Monday, February 10
China — new yuan loans
Switzerland — unemployment rate data
Canada — housing starts
euro zone — investor confidence
Tuesday, February 11
United States — Janet Yellen policy report
Wednesday, February 12
China — trade balance
United Kingdom — bank of England inflation report
Switzerland — consumer price index
Thursday, February 13
Australia — employment data/unemployment rate
United States — advance retail sales
United States — weekly jobless claims
Friday, February 14
China — consumer price index
euro zone — euro zone GDP
euro zone — France GDP report
euro zone — Germany GDP report
United States — University of Michigan confidence survey
Please see our full calendar for a complete listing of economic events.
