Large Forex Speculators decreased US Dollar bets for 3rd week. Euro turns bullish
By CountingPips.com
The weekly Commitments of Traders (COT) report, released on Friday by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), showed that large futures traders and currency speculators cut back on their bullish bets of the US dollar last week for a third consecutive week.
Non-commercial contracts by large futures traders, including hedge funds and large International Monetary Market speculators, decreased their overall US dollar long positions to a total of $21.62 billion as of Tuesday August 6th. This was a decrease of $2.83 billion from the total long position of $24.45 billion that was registered on July 30th, according to calculations by Reuters that derives this amount by the total of US dollar contracts against the combined contract totals of the euro, British pound, Japanese yen, Australian dollar, Canadian dollar and the Swiss franc.
US dollar positions have now fallen for three straight weeks and are at the lowest level since June 25th when bets equaled $13.28 billion.
COT explanation: The weekly cot report summarizes the total trader positions for open contracts in the futures trading markets. The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators).
Individual Currencies Large Speculators Positions in Futures:
The large non-commercial net positions for each of the individual major currencies directly against the US dollar last week saw weekly increases for the euro, British pound sterling, Japanese yen, Swiss franc, Canadian dollar and the Mexican peso while the Australian dollar and New Zealand dollar had declining numbers of large speculator positions for the week.
Notable changes: Euro net speculative contracts improved for a fourth straight week and crossed over to a bullish position for the first time since June 25th. Also, the Australian dollar net positions fell to the most bearish position of its recent decline. Despite the weekly drop in futures positions, the Australian dollar rallied in the spot trading market last week which could be a signal that the fresh low in the futures market is a potential near-term bottom for the Aussie.
Individual Currency Charts:
EuroFX:
Last Six Weeks of Large Trader Positions: EuroFX
| Date | Large Trader Net Positions | Weekly Change |
| 07/02/2013 | -16090 | -33447 |
| 07/09/2013 | -40900 | -24810 |
| 07/16/2013 | -37165 | 3735 |
| 07/23/2013 | -27900 | 9265 |
| 07/30/2013 | -8504 | 19396 |
| 08/06/2013 | 6061 | 14565 |
British Pound Sterling:
Last Six Weeks of Large Trader Positions: Pound Sterling
| Date | Lg Trader Net | Weekly Change |
| 07/02/2013 | -31324 | -11895 |
| 07/09/2013 | -34259 | -2935 |
| 07/16/2013 | -37446 | -3187 |
| 07/23/2013 | -49653 | -12207 |
| 07/30/2013 | -49463 | 190 |
| 08/06/2013 | -46033 | 3430 |
Japanese Yen:
Last Six Weeks of Large Trader Positions: Yen
| Date | Lg Trader Net | Weekly Change |
| 07/02/2013 | -70736 | -9274 |
| 07/09/2013 | -80305 | -9569 |
| 07/16/2013 | -85762 | -5457 |
| 07/23/2013 | -87496 | -1734 |
| 07/30/2013 | -82135 | 5361 |
| 08/06/2013 | -80213 | 1922 |
Swiss Franc:
Last Six Weeks of Large Trader Positions: Franc
| Date | Lg Trader Net | Weekly Change |
| 07/02/2013 | -116 | -2580 |
| 07/09/2013 | -1776 | -1660 |
| 07/16/2013 | -4969 | -3193 |
| 07/23/2013 | -5433 | -464 |
| 07/30/2013 | -1261 | 4172 |
| 08/06/2013 | -325 | 936 |
Canadian Dollar:
Last Six Weeks of Large Trader Positions: CAD
| Date | Lg Trader Net | Weekly Change |
| 07/02/2013 | -16250 | -5612 |
| 07/09/2013 | -23829 | -7579 |
| 07/16/2013 | -20043 | 3786 |
| 07/23/2013 | -16758 | 3285 |
| 07/30/2013 | -11434 | 5324 |
| 08/06/2013 | -10436 | 998 |
Australian Dollar:
Last Six Weeks of Large Trader Positions: AUD
| Date | Lg Trader Net | Weekly Change |
| 07/02/2013 | -70515 | -8871 |
| 07/09/2013 | -63255 | 7260 |
| 07/16/2013 | -70686 | -7431 |
| 07/23/2013 | -63982 | 6704 |
| 07/30/2013 | -72573 | -8591 |
| 08/06/2013 | -76779 | -4206 |
New Zealand Dollar:
Last Six Weeks of Large Trader Positions: NZD
| Date | Lg Trader Net | Weekly Change |
| 07/02/2013 | -1174 | -463 |
| 07/09/2013 | -1008 | 166 |
| 07/16/2013 | -2744 | -1736 |
| 07/23/2013 | -1846 | 898 |
| 07/30/2013 | -520 | 1326 |
| 08/06/2013 | -1539 | -1019 |
Mexican Peso:
Last Six Weeks of Large Trader Positions: MXN
| Date | Lg Trader Net | Weekly Change |
| 07/02/2013 | 2847 | -2134 |
| 07/09/2013 | 8035 | 5188 |
| 07/16/2013 | 11366 | 3331 |
| 07/23/2013 | 19799 | 8433 |
| 07/30/2013 | 24888 | 5089 |
| 08/06/2013 | 32125 | 7237 |
The Commitment of Traders report is published every Friday by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) and shows futures positions data that was reported as of the previous Tuesday (3 days behind).
Each currency contract is a quote for that currency directly against the U.S. dollar, a net short amount of contracts means that more speculators are betting that currency to fall against the dollar and a net long position expect that currency to rise versus the dollar.
(The graphs overlay the forex spot closing price of each Tuesday when COT trader positions are reported for each corresponding spot currency pair.)
See more information and explanation on the weekly COT report from the CFTC website.
Article by CountingPips.com