By CountingPips.com
Prime Minister Shinzo Abe’s party wins control of both houses of parliament: Yen weakness to follow?
Last week saw the US dollar trade mostly lower against the other major currencies as US Federal Reserve Chairman’s semi-annual testimony failed to move the markets much in either direction. The dollar declined against all the other majors except the Japanese yen.
This week and especially at the open of the week, it will be important to watch the Japanese yen pairs and how they do in the forex market after the Japanese elections resulted in favor of Prime Minister Shinzo Abe’s party. This election win gives Abe’s party control of both parliament houses and could have a weakening effect on the yen as Abe’s policies of monetary easing to fight deflation and increase inflation now have less obstacles in government. This could result in a big open this week for the USD/JPY, EUR/JPY and many other yen currency pairs.
Other economic highlights coming up this week include the New Zealand interest rate decision on Wednesday, the US durable goods report on Thursday and manufacturing data on Wednesday from multiple countries. See more currency pair comments and economic event highlights below.
Major Currency Pair Commentary & Levels:
EUR/USD – The euro continued to climb against the US dollar for a second straight week last week. The EUR/USD bounced off the 1.3000 major level as the pair found buying support and ended the week at approximately 1.3138. The outlook for this week will be to see if the pair can continue its climb and test or overcome the 1.3250 exchange level. Near term support levels look to be at the 1.3100 round number with the 1.3000 major level providing support below. Overhead resistance can be found in the 1.3150 — 1.3180 area before we see a test of 1.3250.
GBP/USD – The British pound sterling rose for a second straight week against the dollar and closed above the 1.5250 exchange level. We could see this pair find support at the 1.5200 level with more round number support at the 1.5100 level and then the major 1.5000 level. Overhead resistance comes in at 1.5250 — 1.5285 area with a heavy resistance area possibly 1.5350 above. Notice the MACD indicator below is showing a divergence from price that could indicate support for a bullish outlook.
USD/JPY – The US dollar closed higher against the yen last week after falling the previous week. This currency pair closed over the major psychological level of 100.00 and look for this level to provide immediate support early this week. If the pair stays above the 100.00 level, the 101.25 — 101.50 area could bring overhead resistance into play while the 102.50 could provide resistance this week if we see a strong uptrend in the USD/JPY.
USD/CHF – The US dollar fell for a second straight week against the Swiss franc last week and perhaps a further fall will test the 0.9250 support level this week. Looking out over this week, the 0.9500 level could provide near-term overhead resistance while the 0.9550 level has provided resistance numerous times in the past. Near-term support should be seen in the 0.9375 — 0.9400 area before the 0.9300 — 0.9325 area comes into play with a potential target of 0.9250 if the dollar’s downtrend continues.
USD/CAD – The dollar fell slightly against the Canadian dollar last week to fall for a second straight week and following a sharp decline the previous week. The USD/CAD currency pair should see near-term support at the 1.0325 area early this week while further decline will likely see a test of the 1.0250 major level. Overhead resistance comes in at the 1.0425 area before the 1.0500 major resistance above.
AUD/USD – The Australian dollar rose against the US dollar last week as the AUD/USD currency pair may have found a base of support above the 0.9000 exchange rate level. This pair will look to build upon last week’s increase and test the 0.9250 level that has provided resistance for the past four weeks. A rise above this level would indicate a short-term turnaround in the Aussie’s trend. Look for support at the 0.9125 — 0.9150 area and the 0.9050 level before the major 0.9000 comes into play.
NZD/USD – The New Zealand dollar gained against the US dollar for second straight week and almost reached the 0.8000 major level last week. Further uptrend this week will test the overhead resistance areas of 0.8000 and then the 0.8050 level. Overcoming these levels would indicate a renewed interest in buying for the Kiwi and could see further gains in the weeks ahead. In the case of the downtrend this week, look for the 0.7850 level to provide near-term support with the 0.7750 — 0.7780 area come into play before the 0.7750 support level shows up.
Weekly Economic Highlights:
Monday, July 22
United States — existing home sales
United States — Chicago federal activity index
Tuesday, July 23
Japan — economic report
Canada — retail sales
United States — house price index
euro zone — consumer confidence
New Zealand — trade balance
Japan — merchandise trade
Wednesday, July 24
Australia — consumer price index
China — HSBC manufacturing
euro zone — German PMI
euro zone — PMI manufacturing
United States — new home sales
New Zealand — interest rate decision
Japan — foreign stock/bonds buying
Thursday, July 25
United Kingdom — GDP report
United States — weekly jobless claims
United States — durable goods orders
Japan — consumer price index
Friday, July 26
United States — University of Michigan confidence survey
