The weekly Commitments of Traders (COT) report, released on Friday by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), showed that large futures traders and speculators decreased their total bullish bets of the US dollar last week for a fourth consecutive week.
Non-commercial large futures traders, including hedge funds and large International Monetary Market speculators, trimmed their overall US dollar long positions to a total of $13.28 billion as of Tuesday June 25th. This was a decline from the total long position of $14.55 Billion registered on June 18th, according to position calculations by Reuters that derives this total by the amount of US dollar positions against the combined positions of euro, British pound, Japanese yen, Australian dollar, Canadian dollar and the Swiss franc.
USD net long positions are at their lowest level since February 19th when bullish positions equaled $1.481 billion, according to Reuters data calculations.
What is the COT Report:
The weekly cot report summarizes the total trader positions for open contracts in the futures trading markets. The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators).
Individual Currencies Large Speculators Positions in Futures:
The individual currency speculator net positions showed advances for the Australian dollar, British pound sterling, Japanese yen and the Canadian dollar last week while the euro, New Zealand dollar, Swiss franc and the Mexican peso all had a declining number of net large trader contracts for the week.
Individual Currency Charts:
EuroFX:
EuroFX: Large trader positions for the euro declined slightly last week after improving for the previous three consecutive weeks. Euro contracts dipped to a total net position of +17,357 contracts in the data reported for June 25th following the previous week’s total of +20,030 net contracts on June 18th. Despite the decrease, euro positions have now been in positive territory for two straight weeks after turning bullish for the first time since February 19th on June 18th.
Last Six Weeks of Large Trader Positions: EURO
| Date | Lg Trader Net | Change |
| 05/21/2013 | -80949 | -34028 |
| 05/28/2013 | -84644 | -3695 |
| 06/04/2013 | -51621 | 33023 |
| 06/11/2013 | -7533 | 44088 |
| 06/18/2013 | 20030 | 27563 |
| 06/25/2013 | 17357 | -2673 |
British Pound Sterling:
GBP: British pound speculative positions improved slightly last week and reached their best position since February. British pound speculative positions improved to a total of -19,429 net contracts on June 25th following a total of -20,406 net contracts reported for June 18th. The last three weeks of advances have bumped up GBP net positions to their best level since February 12th when positions equaled -16,307 contracts.
Last Six Weeks of Large Trader Positions: Pound Sterling
| date | Lg Trader Net | Change Weekly |
| 05/21/2013 | -76976 | -11621 |
| 05/28/2013 | -74525 | 2451 |
| 06/04/2013 | -77738 | -3213 |
| 06/11/2013 | -53687 | 24051 |
| 06/18/2013 | -20406 | 33281 |
| 06/25/2013 | -19429 | 977 |
Japanese Yen:
JPY: Japanese yen net speculative contracts improved last week for a fourth consecutive week and brought yen net contracts to their best position since February. Japanese yen positions improved to a total of -61,462 net contracts on June 25th following a total of -61,890 net short contracts on June 18th. This is the best level in net yen positions since February 12th when positions equaled -61,306 contracts.
Last Six Weeks of Large Trader Positions: Yen
| date | Lg Trader Net | Change Weekly |
| 05/21/2013 | -95186 | -6779 |
| 05/28/2013 | -99769 | -4583 |
| 06/04/2013 | -82744 | 17025 |
| 06/11/2013 | -72906 | 9838 |
| 06/18/2013 | -61890 | 11016 |
| 06/25/2013 | -61462 | 428 |
Swiss Franc:
CHF: Swiss franc large speculator positions decreased last week after improving for three consecutive weeks. Net positions for the Swiss currency futures declined to a total of +2,464 contracts on June 25th following a total of +5,791 net contracts reported for June 18th. Swiss franc net positions have now been on the positive side for two consecutive weeks.
Last Six Weeks of Large Trader Positions: Franc
| date | Lg Trader Net | Change Weekly |
| 05/21/2013 | -19930 | -4520 |
| 05/28/2013 | -28972 | -9042 |
| 06/04/2013 | -25803 | 3169 |
| 06/11/2013 | -20738 | 5065 |
| 06/18/2013 | 5791 | 26529 |
| 06/25/2013 | 2464 | -3327 |
Canadian Dollar:
CAD: Canadian dollar positions improved last week for a third consecutive week and CAD positions continued to be at their best level since February. Canadian dollar positions rose to a total of -10,638 contracts as of June 25th following a total of -26,087 net contracts that were reported for June 18th. Net Canadian dollar positions are at a new best level since February 19th when positions equaled +19,379 contracts.
Last Six Weeks of Large Trader Positions: CAD
| date | Lg Trader Net | Change Weekly |
| 05/21/2013 | -33852 | 10565 |
| 05/28/2013 | -33359 | 493 |
| 06/04/2013 | -39776 | -6417 |
| 06/11/2013 | -35907 | 3869 |
| 06/18/2013 | -26087 | 9820 |
| 06/25/2013 | -10638 | 15449 |
Australian Dollar:
AUD: Australian dollar large speculator positions increased slightly last week after declining for 12 consecutive weeks. Aussie speculative futures positions edged up to a total net amount of -61,644 contracts on June 25th after totaling -63,521 net contracts as of June 18th. This is the seventh week of bearish Aussie large spec contracts but with the rate of decline slowing, we could be witnessing a short-term bottom in Aussie bearish sentiment.
Last Six Weeks of Large Trader Positions: AUD
| date | Lg Trader Net | Change Weekly |
| 05/21/2013 | -32409 | -18959 |
| 05/28/2013 | -42307 | -9898 |
| 06/04/2013 | -58550 | -16243 |
| 06/11/2013 | -63277 | -4727 |
| 06/18/2013 | -63521 | -244 |
| 06/25/2013 | -61644 | 1877 |
New Zealand Dollar:
NZD: New Zealand dollar large speculator bets decreased slightly again last week and fell for an eighth consecutive week. NZD contracts declined lower to a total of -711 net long contracts as of June 25th following a total of +2,126 net long contracts on June 18th. Kiwi positions have now crossed over to the bearish side for the first time since June 19, 2012 when net positions equaled -2,213 contracts.
Last Six Weeks of Large Trader Positions: NZD
| date | Lg Trader Net | Change Weekly |
| 05/21/2013 | 17782 | -5434 |
| 05/28/2013 | 14011 | -3771 |
| 06/04/2013 | 6013 | -7998 |
| 06/11/2013 | 2653 | -3360 |
| 06/18/2013 | 2126 | -527 |
| 06/25/2013 | -711 | -2837 |
Mexican Peso:
MXN: Mexican peso speculative contracts decreased last week and fell for a sixth consecutive week. Peso positions declined lower to a total of +4,981 net speculative positions as of June 25th following a total of +20,949 contracts that were reported for June 18th. This is the lowest level for Mexican peso positions since June 26, 2012 when net positions equaled -7,647 contracts.
Last Six Weeks of Large Trader Positions: MXN
| date | Lg Trader Net | Change Weekly |
| 05/14/2013 | 140319 | 1875 |
| 05/21/2013 | 136863 | -3456 |
| 05/28/2013 | 120864 | -15999 |
| 06/04/2013 | 82871 | -37993 |
| 06/18/2013 | 20949 | -42825 |
| 06/25/2013 | 4981 | -15968 |
The Commitment of Traders report is published every Friday by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) and shows futures positions data that was reported as of the previous Tuesday (3 days behind).
Each currency contract is a quote for that currency directly against the U.S. dollar, a net short amount of contracts means that more speculators are betting that currency to fall against the dollar and a net long position expect that currency to rise versus the dollar.
(The graphs overlay the forex spot closing price of each Tuesday when COT trader positions are reported for each corresponding spot currency pair.)
See more information and explanation on the weekly COT report from the CFTC website.
Article by CountingPips.com
