By CountingPips.com
The US dollar’s strength cooled off a bit in the forex markets last week after two straight weeks of gains. The dollar continued its rise against the Australian dollar, British pound sterling and the Canadian dollar while falling against the euro, Japanese yen and the Swiss franc. The New Zealand dollar was virtually unchanged against the USD.
Looking ahead to the upcoming week, we have a shortened week as we start with a Monday holiday in both the US and the UK. See commentary on forex pairs below followed by the weekly economic highlights.
Major Currency Pair Commentary:
EUR/USD: The euro rebounded against the dollar last week after declining for the previous two weeks. The pair found support near the 1.2850 level on the week and rallied to a high point just shy of 1.3000 on both Wednesday and Friday. This week the outlook very much revolves around the important 1.3000 level and whether prices trade above or below this level. Significant level of support is seen in the 1.2850 — 1.2875 area and then further below at 1.2800 — 1.2775 area.
GBP/USD: The British pound fell against the US Dollar for a third consecutive week and just missed bottoming at the 1.5000 level (low of 1.5013). Slower consumer inflation data hampered the currency earlier in the week and U.K. GDP came in to match economist expectations later in the week. For levels going forward, upside momentum would likely see resistance into the 1.5225 — 1.5250 area while downward momentum would possibly see support coming in at the 1.5080 — 1.5100 area. The major psychological level of 1.50 could very well be tested this week.
USD/JPY: The US dollar reached its highest level against the Japanese yen since 2008 last week above 103.50 level before a sharp retracement brought this currency pair lower. Further decline will bring up a bulls vs. bears showdown at the major 100.00 support level that proved to be such a barrier for prices to scale in April.
USD/CHF: The Swiss franc gained against the US dollar last week after two weeks of dollar strength. The pair topped out at about an 11-month high above the 0.9800 level and trades currently close to the 0.9600 price. On a continued decline lower, pair will likely run into the previous support and resistance areas at the 0.9550 and 0.9500 levels. Upside momentum will see the 0.9650 level possibly come into play before previous support and resistance of 0.9700 and then 0.9750 level.
USD/CAD: US Dollar closed higher against the Canadian dollar for the third straight week and touched the highest level since June 2012. Interestingly enough on the weekly charts, the week’s closing price stayed within the upper trendline of the weekly wedge pattern. Is this the week to break it? For further upside momentum, we would need to scale the 1.0325 — 1.0350 level before 1.0400 presents possible resistance. Levels coming into play on the downside start with the 1.0250 — 1.0280 and then 1.0200 — 1.0175.
AUD/USD: The Aussie fell against the US dollar for a third consecutive week and closed right near the 0.9650 support level. The pair has been heavily sold off in the past three weeks and has fallen to its lowest level in almost a year. It will be worth watching to see if a base of support materializes at the 0.9650 level as we have seen this area provide support numerous times over the last two trading years. If this pair continues to decrease, we could see prices fall all the way to the 0.9380 — 0.9400 support area.
NZD/USD: This pair was basically unchanged last week and sits at the 0.8087 currency price. Levels coming into play include support level at the 0.8050 area before the major level of 0.80 support shows up. Higher up the scale we see 0.8150 level that has been previous support and resistance and then the major 0.8200 area.
This Week’s Economic Calendar highlights:
Monday, May 27th
USA Holiday
UK Holiday
Tuesday, May 28th
United States — consumer confidence
euro zone — German retail sales
China — leading index
Switzerland — trade balance
Wednesday, May 29
Japan — BOJ speech
euro zone — German employment data
euro zone — German consumer price index
Canada — Bank of Canada interest rate decision
Thursday, May 30
United States — GDP first quarter
United States — personal consumption
United States — weekly jobless claims
United States — pending home sales
Japan — national consumer price index
Switzerland — GDP report
Friday, May 31
China — manufacturing PMI
euro zone — consumer price index
Canada — GDP report
United States — personal consumption expenditure
United States — University of Michigan confidence survey
See our full economic calendar for more events.
Written by Zac Storella, CountingPips Forex Blog & Currency Pair Technical Analysis
