Month: December 2012

Agonizingly close to a New Year’s Eve compromise, the White House and congressional Republicans agreed Monday to block across-the-board tax increases set for midnight, but held up a final deal as they haggled over spending cuts.

The markets turned higher this morning as investors are hoping for a last minute deal to avoid the fiscal cliff. It was good year for Apple (AAPL) which is set to close up nearly 30 percent for 2012.

As negotiators continue to avert to so called “fiscal cliff”, economists are starting to predict consequences for all Americans, regardless of whether a deal is reached. The biggest consequence for most Americans would be an increase of the payroll tax from 4.2 percent to 6.2 percent, which would result in an additional $2,000 in taxes for workers earning $100,000.

President Barack Obama says it appears that an agreement to avoid the fiscal cliff is ‘in sight,’ but says it’s not yet complete and work continues.

Efforts to save the nation from going over a year-end “fiscal cliff” are still in disarray as lawmakers continue negotiations to confront the tax-and-spend crisis.

By CountingPips.com

The latest Commitments of Traders (COT) report, released on Friday by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), showed that large futures speculators continued to add to their overall short position against the US dollar last week for a fourth straight week.

Non-commercial large futures traders, including hedge funds and large speculators, registered a US dollar short position total of 6.49 billion on December 24th after totaling a short position of 6.39 billion on December 18th, according to the CFTC COT data and calculations by Reuters which calculates the dollar positions against the euro, British pound, Japanese yen, Australian dollar, Canadian dollar and the Swiss franc.

Individual Currencies Large Speculators Positions:

EuroFX: Currency speculator sentiment for the euro continued to improve last week for a fifth straight week and to the new highest level (lowest short level) of the year. Euro net short positions or bets against the currency declined to 2,549 contracts on December 24th from the previous week’s total of 9,736 net short contracts on December 18th. Euro positions are at their best level since August 30th 2011 when positions were short by just 384 contracts.

The COT report is published every Friday by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) and shows futures positions as of the previous Tuesday. It can be a useful tool for traders to gauge investor sentiment and to look for potential changes in the direction of a currency or commodity.

Each currency contract is a quote for that currency directly against the U.S. dollar, a net short amount of contracts means that more speculators are betting that currency to fall against the dollar and a net long position expect that currency to rise versus the dollar.

(The graphs overlay the forex spot closing price of each Tuesday when COT trader positions are reported for each corresponding spot currency pair.)

GBP: British pound sterling positions increased last week for a fifth straight week and advanced to the highest level of 2012. British pound speculative positions rose to a total of 37,321 net long contracts on December 24th following a total of 28,036 net long contracts on December 18th. Last week’s total is now the highest level of 2012 for pound sterling positions after surpassing the October 30th total of 30,094 contracts.

JPY: Japanese yen speculative contracts improved last week for a second consecutive week. Japanese yen positions improved to a total of 85,608 net short contracts reported on December 24th following a total of 89,163 net short contracts on December 18th.

CHF: Swiss franc speculator positions increased last week for a fifth consecutive week and to a new highest level of 2012. Speculator positions for the Swiss currency futures registered a total of 11,435 net long contracts on December 24th following a total of 4,280 net long contracts as of December 18th. Swiss franc positions are at their highest level since August 2nd 2011 when long positions equaled 12,341 contracts.

CAD: Canadian dollar positions decreased after rising for two consecutive weeks. Canadian dollar positions fell to a total of 63,352 net long contracts as of December 24th following a total of 74,278 net long contracts that were reported for December 18th.

AUD: The Australian dollar positions decreased last week for a second straight week and after reaching a new 2012 high level on December 11th. Aussie speculative futures positions declined to a total net amount of 75,433 long contracts on December 24th after totaling 97,496 net long contracts as of December 18th. Australian dollar contracts have risen seven out of the last ten weeks and reached the highest level of the year on December 11th.

NZD: New Zealand dollar speculator positions edged higher last week following a sharp drop the previous week. NZD contracts advanced to a total of 14,739 net long contracts as of December 24th following a total of 14,230 net long contracts on December 18th. The New Zealand dollar speculator positions reached their highest level in 2012 on December 11th after surpassing the previous high on February 20th at 24,211 contracts.

MXN: Mexican peso speculative contracts edged higher last week after cooling off the week prior. Peso positions rose slightly to a total of 149,355 net long speculative positions as of December 24th following a total of 147,749 long contracts that were reported for December 18th. Peso positions are now at the highest level of 2012 after surpassing the December 11th level of 149,271 contracts that was the previous high level for this year.

Article by CountingPips.com – Forex News & Market Analysis

Senate Republicans and Democrats are still trying to reach a compromise over taxes and spending, to avoid the fiscal cliff. Tax hikes and spending cuts are set to kick in with the new year.

Senate negotiators remain short of an agreement as a year-end deadline looms to prevent tax increases for nearly all Americans.

Senate leaders groped for a last-minute compromise Saturday to avoid middle-class tax increases and possibly prevent deep spending cuts at the dawn of the new year.

This holiday shortened fifty second and last full trading week of 2012 comes to a close with investors fretting that a fall off the cliff is inevitable and that the impact of the fall will be severe and far reaching. Hi.