Month: May 2012

By CountingPips.com

The latest Commitments of Traders (COT) report, released on Friday by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), showed that large futures speculators raised their overall US dollar long positions last week for the first time in four weeks as speculators increased their euro short positions to the highest level since February and Australian dollar long positions fell sharply.

Non-commercial futures traders, including hedge funds and large speculators, increased their total US dollar long positions to $20.95 billion on May 8th from a total long position of $13.31 billion on May 1st, according to the CFTC COT data and calculations by Reuters which calculates the dollar positions against the euro, British pound, Japanese yen, Australian dollar, Canadian dollar and the Swiss franc.

Individual Currencies:

EuroFX: Currency speculator sentiment declined for the first time in three weeks in the euro currency as euro net short positions or bets against the currency increased to 106,990 contracts on May 8th from the previous week’s total of 106,990 net short contracts on May 1st. This is the highest level for euro short positions since February 13th when short contracts totaled 148,641.

The COT report is published every Friday by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) and shows futures positions as of the previous Tuesday. It can be a useful tool for traders to gauge investor sentiment and to look for potential changes in the direction of a currency or commodity. Each currency contract is a quote for that currency directly against the U.S. dollar, where as a net short amount of contracts means that more speculators are betting that currency to fall against the dollar and net long position expect that currency to rise versus the dollar. The graphs overlay the forex spot closing price of each Tuesday when COT trader positions are reported for each corresponding spot currency pair.

GBP: British pound sterling positions rose last week for a fourth consecutive week and ascended to  their highest level in over a year. British pound positions saw a total of 25,339 net long contracts on May 8th following a total of 16,493 net long contracts registered on May 1st. Pound positions have continued to rise higher and are now at the highest level since May 3rd 2011 when long contracts equaled 30,807.

JPY: Japanese yen speculative contracts improved last week for a fourth consecutive week as Yen positions totaled 41,093 net short contracts reported on May 8th following a total of 50,173 net short contracts on May 1st. The improvement in the Japanese positions has coincided with the USDJPY spot price declines as the pair currently trade under the 80.00 level.

CHF: Swiss franc speculator positions decreased last week after improving the previous week. Speculator positions for the Swiss currency futures registered a total of 16,494 net short contracts on May 8th following a total of 14,311 net short contracts as of May 1st.

CAD: Canadian dollar positions declined last week after reaching the highest level of the year the previous week. Canadian dollar positions fell to a total of 60,095 net long contracts as of May 8th following a total of 70,223 long contracts that were reported for May 1st. CAD positions had recently surpassed their previous highest level of the year and reached their best level since March of 2011 on May 1st.

AUD: The Australian dollar long positions dropped sharply after increasing the previous week. Aussie positions fell to a total net amount of 25,104 long contracts on May 8th after rising to 52,280 net long contracts reported as of May 1st. AUD speculative positions are now at their lowest level since November 2011 when long contracts equaled 12,542.

NZD: New Zealand dollar futures speculator positions declined for a third week as NZD contracts decreased to a total of 6,224 net long contracts as of May 8th following a total of 8,025 net long contracts on May 1st.

MXN: Mexican peso speculative contracts trended slightly lower after edging higher the previous week. Peso long positions decreased to a total of 36,928 net long speculative positions as of May 8th following a total of 42,045 long contracts that were reported for May 1st.

COT Currency Data Summary as of May 8, 2012
Large Speculators Net Positions vs. the US Dollar

EUR -143984
GBP +25339
JPY -41093
CHF -16494
CAD +60095
AUD +25104
NZD +6224
MXN +36928

Yahoo (NASDAQ:YHOO) who announced job cuts last week is facing another loss with the company’s chief product officer; Blake Irving left the company prior to company reorganization.His departure comes under Yahoo’s new CEO Scott Thompson, who joined the company the beginning of the year.Yahoo! (NASDAQ:YHOO) has potential upside of 15.3% based on a current price of $15.06 and an average consensus analyst price target of $17.36.

The Wall Street Journal reports Sony (NYSE:SNE) will cut 10,000 jobs globally and reductions could take place over the next two fiscal years. This will be the second time the company has cut a large amount of jobs, the first being in 2008 when a number factories closed and 16,000 jobs were cut.Sony’s new CEO Kazuo Hirai will reveal the company’s restructuring plans this Thursday and will focus on the electronic business, which has been competing against Samsung and Apple (NASDAQ:AAPL).In the last fiscal year from October to December, Sony lost $159 billion yen and more than doubled its expected loss for the fiscal year.Sony (NYSE:SNE) has potential upside of 20.1% based on a current price of $20.01 and an average consensus analyst price target of $24.04.

This is what’s in the news for Monday April 9, 2012. The Wall Street Journal reports top labor representatives of Volkswagen (PINK:VLKAY) and its Audi unit say they expect binding commitments to secure jobs at Audi’s two main German plants before agreeing to a new plant in North America. The Wall Street Journal also reports Reddy Ice Holdings (PINK:RDDY) is in the final stages of preparing to file for Chapter 11 bankruptcy protection with a plan to give ownership to a hedge fund holding the company’s debt, sources say. Reuters reports Qatar’s sovereign wealth fund has built a 5% stake in Xstrata (PINK:XSRAY) ahead of the mining giant’s planned $41B takeover by Glencore. Reuters also reports Bangladesh says ConocoPhillips (NYSE:COP) is seeking to expand operations in the Bay of Bengal following a U.N. tribunal border ruling which cleared the way for more offshore oil and gas exploration in the region. Finally, Bloomberg reports oil slid for the third time in four days after Iran agreed to resume talks on its nuclear program and economic reports in the U.S. and China raised concern about the demand for fuel.

Greenbrier Companies (NYSE:GBX) reported fiscal Q2 EPS of $0.57, beating estimates by $0.11.Revenues in the quarter rose 61.2% to $458 million, beating estimates by $18 million.Greenbrier Cos (NYSE:GBX) has potential upside of 65% based on a current price of $19.7 and an average consensus analyst price target of $32.5.

Taking a look at the biggest winner right now on the New York Stock Exchange, AOL (NYSE:AOL) making some big moves. Its shares have risen $7.74 or more than 42% to $26.17 since the markets opened. This came after the company announced its plans to sell some of its patents to Microsoft for $1.06 billion.AOL is currently above its 50-day moving average (MA) of $18.07 and above its 200-day of $15.91.

A federal appeals court has restored claims by Rosetta Stone (NYSE:RST), the popular foreign language education company on a case against Google (NASDAQ:GOOG) for trademark infringement claims.In 2010 a district court dismissed a case stating trademark use as search words that produce competing ads was legal.Rosetta Stone is currently above its 50-day moving average (MA) of $9.34 and should find resistance at its 200-day MA of $10.14.

A federal appeals court has restored claims by Rosetta Stone (NYSE:RST), the popular foreign language education company on a case against Google (NASDAQ:GOOG) for trademark infringement claims.In 2010 a district court dismissed a case stating trademark use as search words that produce competing ads was legal.Rosetta Stone is currently above its 50-day moving average (MA) of $9.34 and should find resistance at its 200-day MA of $10.14.

InterMune (NASDAQ:ITMN) shares fell 13% to $13.24 after news broke that a significant trial for its drug Esbriet was postponed.Last week, the company announced it didn’t expect enrollment for the Phase III clinical trial to be finish by the end of the year, when the company predicted enrollment to be finish by the second quarter.InterMune (NASDAQ:ITMN) has potential upside of 119.3% based on a current price of $12.7 and an average consensus analyst price target of $27.85.

Cisco Systems announced its forecast for profit in the fourth quarter, after releasing their third quarter earnings yesterday.The networking company posted an EPS of $0.48 a share on revenue of $11.6 billion which was inline with estimates. This wasn’t horrible news until the company released its fourth quarter outlook on their conference call. Cisco expects to post a fourth quarter EPS in the range of $0.44 to $0.46 a share. They expect revenue to increase 2% to 5% year over year to a range of $11.4 billion to $11.8 billion. This was below what analysts were expecting of an EPS of $0.48 on sales of $12 billion. Now, the company is falling in early trading, down over 8% to $17.24.