Month: March 2012

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Source: ForexYard

The direction of both Gold and Silver continues to sway as the two metals go from gains to losses.
Wednesdays’ trading saw Gold show a moderate rise of 0.2% to $1,650, whilst silver showed a gain of 1.23% to $32.23.

Reports claim that Chinas’ Manufacturing is set to contract for the fifth consecutive month, according to the recent HSBC Manufacturing PMI, the index slipped to 48.1 which shows that the nations’ manufacturing is on the decline. This news will be among the major factors negatively affecting the price of the two metals throughout the day.

There are a number of important news events released today, as both ECB President Mario Draghi and the Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke will speak. U.S Jobless Claims update as well as Canada’s Retail Sales complete the reports for today.

Chinas’ manufacturing crisis is the leading indicator of Gold and silvers moderate decline. Chinas’ progress is the main event for the bullion market, as we could see the two metals trading in the red throughout the day.
The news out of Europe today could affect the Euro and the Greenback, and consequently affect the prices of Gold and Silver.

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Micron Technology (NYSE:MU) shares were up $0.27 to $8.83. The company announced that it has offered to take over Japanese company Elpida Memory for over $1 billion.Micron Technology (NYSE:MU) has potential upside of 19.5% based on a current price of $8.83 and an average consensus analyst price target of $10.56.Micron Technology is currently above its 50-day moving average (MA) of $8.02 and above its 200-day of $6.82.In the last five trading sessions, the 50-day MA has climbed 1.18% while the 200-day MA has slid 0.15%.

Shares of Hewlett-Packard (NYSE:HPQ) slipped Wednesday after the company announced its plan to merge their printing group with its computer business.Hewlett-Packard (NYSE:HPQ) has potential upside of 33% based on a current price of $23.56 and an average consensus analyst price target of $31.33.Hewlett-Packard is currently below its 50-day moving average (MA) of $26.99 and below its 200-day MA of $28.34.In the last five trading sessions, the 50-day MA has fallen 0.49% while the 200-day MA has slid 0.64%

Oracle (NASDAQ:ORCL) shares were up $0.35 to $30.44 after the company released its quarterly earnings late Tuesday.The company reported reported Q3 EPS of $0.62, better than analyst estimates of $0.56 per share. Revenues for the quarter rose 3.4% year-over-year to $9.04 billion, better than consensus estimates of $9.02 billion.Oracle (NASDAQ:ORCL) has potential upside of 9% based on a current price of $30.04 and an average consensus analyst price target of $32.76.Oracle is currently above its 50-day moving average (MA) of $28.88 and above its 200-day of $29.75.In the last five trading sessions, the 50-day MA has climbed 0.7% while the 200-day MA has remained constant.

By MoneyMorning.com.au

“Buffett’s chosen low-cost S&P 500 fund gained 2.08 per cent in 2011 to beat the five portfolios of hedge funds Protégé chose, which were down 1.86 per cent. Through four years, the hedge funds are down 5.89 per cent. Buffett’s index fund is down 6.27 per cent.” – Associated Press

“German Chancellor Angela Merkel told MPs from her conservative party Wednesday that she believed the eurozone’s sovereign debt crisis was ‘not over’ and the current relative calm was merely a ‘phase’.” – AFP
“ANZ chief Mike Smith has tried to play down concerns about the health of the Australian housing market among overseas investors… He pointed out that all mortgage lending in Australia was full recourse, while loan-to-valuation ratios averaged less than 50 per cent.” – The Age

Where do we start?

Warren Buffet the world’s most famous investor is in a battle with hedge funds over who can lose the most money.

The German Chancellor warns you haven’t heard the last of the Eurozone debt problems.

And ANZ chief, Mike Smith, who claimed in 2008 that Aussie banks hadn’t received $1 of taxpayer money (obviously the first homebuyers cash doesn’t count!) now says the Australian housing market is… erm… safe as houses.

The upshot is: do you remember 2011? OK. Well, expect more of the same in 2012.

We’d like to tell you the market was heading back for gradual and consistent gains.

But it isn’t.

The housing market and the stock market are more similar than most investors think. For years both sides battled, claiming one was better than the other.

When stocks out-did housing, stock investors said they were geniuses.

When housing out-did stock, housing investors said they were geniuses.

But as we pointed out to an old pal over lunch on Monday, the truth is much different. And failure to understand this truth could see investors staring at zero growth and even losses in their wealth for another 10 years…

Why Buffett Hates Gold

People who bought homes in 1970 for $1,000 and still own the home today valued at $1 million, aren’t geniuses. They bought a house… and lived in it. That’s not hard!

We’re sorry if we’ve burst your bubble, but it’s true.

The fact is, in the case of 1970s homebuyers, they’ve made a lot of money due to the luck of being born in the 1940s and 1950s. At around the time they came of age, the world was set to embark on a once-in-a-millennium credit bubble.

The same goes for investors who bought shares in 1970 and still own them today. Warren Buffett – the world’s greatest investor – wouldn’t be half the investor if it wasn’t for a quirk of fate.

Until the start of the credit boom, Buffett was an average-to-good businessman. When the boom kicked off in the 1970s, he was simply in the right place at the right time.

Perhaps that’s why Buffet hates gold. He made a fortune, thanks to central banks rejecting sound money and instead embracing inflationary credit.

Buffett knows he wouldn’t have a fraction of his USD$44 billion wealth without the credit boom.

This is why it’s important you don’t listen to the “geniuses” who claim the path to prosperity is to leverage up on a five-, 10- or 15-house property portfolio.

And it’s why you shouldn’t listen to the likes of Buffett. Or the Buffett clones who tell you it’s always a good time to buy stocks.

Cash Flow Over Debt

The market over the next 40 years is likely to be a lot different from the market over the past 40 years. You’re more likely to see a repeat of the volatile 1960s and early 1970s, than you are a repeat of the booming 1980s.

That’s true for property and shares.

So, how do you play it?

The best approach is to pick stocks with strong cash flows, low debt and a good history of paying out dividends.

It won’t make you rich overnight. But then again, it’s not supposed to. If this were a get-rich-quick scheme, we wouldn’t tell you to put 20% or so of your wealth into these types of stock.

The idea is to build your wealth by getting the companies you invest in to pay you for owning them. As opposed to property investors who have to pay for the privilege thanks to interest costs and low yields.

But that’s only good for part of your portfolio. You still need to chase capital gains to boost your returns. That’s where small-cap stocks enter the fray.

Change Your Investing Style Before It’s Too Late

Remember, the days of buying and holding on to growth stocks for the long term are over. Because if you hold on too long, odds are, you’ll give back most of the gains.

So you have to be active. Buy stocks before most of the market gets wind of them. And sell when the herd of investors pushes the price higher.

Of course, that’s easier said than done. You won’t win with every punt. But that’s why we suggest you only set aside a fraction of your portfolio for speculative growth plays.

If you can get the right mix, you’ll find yourself doing better than leveraged hedge fund managers… the likes of Buffett who pretend to hate risk but who have built their entire fortune on a credit boom…

And the geniuses who think the secret to wealth involves buying a house and doing little else.

All three types of investors will soon figure out just how much things have changed. And they aren’t going to like it.

Cheers.
Kris.

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By MoneyMorning.com.au

Ed Note: David Thomas, BRIC expert and entrepreneur, gave a great presentation at ‘After America’, Port Phillip Publishing’s first investing conference. You can pre-order the After America DVD now to learn more about investing opportunities in these emerging markets.

Whilst each of the BRIC countries offer exciting opportunities for entrepreneurs, business leaders and investors, forward thinking companies will develop an overall BRIC strategy and focus on the following trends:

Intra-BRIC trade

The annual BRICS Leader’s Meeting is laying the tracks for greater “intra-BRIC” trade and investment co-operation in the years ahead. This is vital to the global economy and a mega-trend for BRIC followers and observers.

With a combined GDP of $8.7 trillion in 2010, the BRIC economies already account for 45% of global economic growth, and the combined BRIC share of world trade increased from 6.9% in 1999 to approximately 14.2% in 2008. Furthermore, BRIC collective trade with the world increased almost six times from $790 billion in 1999 to $4.4 trillion in 2008.

Intra-BRIC trade, or trade among the BRIC members, has accounted for the fastest growth rate in global trade in the last decade, and is expected to continue as the BRIC economies become more dominant. According to the IMF, intra-BRIC trade, which is valued at more than $170 billion, has grown at the rate of 30% p.a. since 1999 and now accounts for 8% of global trade.

During the 10-year period up to 2009, intra-BRIC trade increased nine-fold compared to global trade, which only doubled over the same period. In recent years, Intra-BRIC trade has been mainly characterised by Russia and Brazil supplying natural resources to satisfy the industrial and infrastructural needs of India and China.

However, this is likely to change. Watch out for more investment and trade deals between the BRICs as they create their own trading bloc and invest in each other’s capabilities.

Strong BRIC Leadership

With hung parliaments around the world, short parliamentary terms, continuous electioneering, disengaged and disgruntled voters, and career politicians with vested interests, the will to engage in structural reform and long term planning has virtually disappeared in the western world.

In contrast, the political systems of China and Russia (now with the prospect of Putin serving as President until 2024, having first been elected President in 2000) look remarkably strong, stable and effective, despite the way they are portrayed in the western media.

And Brazil’s recent economic success can largely be credited to the successful 8 year terms of two reforming, pragmatic and popular Presidents, Fernando Henrique Cardoso and Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva.

The question now is whether India, the largest democracy in the world, will be able to remove the stifling influence of Government bureaucracy and consensus to allow their entrepreneurial culture to thrive.

India’s growth rate would be much higher with decent infrastructure, and the hope is that India’s Government can finish the job of transforming India into a modern economy. With its young demographics, entrepreneurial flair, technological excellence and strong domestic demand, India will surely demonstrate that democracy is still alive and well!

BRIC Innovation

It’s too early to know for sure, but the BRICs benefit from “latecomers advantage”. The opportunity to leapfrog technological advances, capitalise on knowledge and past experiences, tap into existing networks and, above all, learn from the mistakes of those who have gone before. They also have the funds to spend on research and equipment, which is rapidly running out in the west.

Here lies the big question for the BRICs to address….and for the US and the developed world to ponder. Will the next Steve Jobs be Chinese? Will Bangalore in India take over where Silicon Valley left off? Will Brazil become the world’s primary source of clean energy, transportation and food? Will Russia put the first man on Mars?

David Thomas
Contributing Writer, Money Morning

The “After America” Archives…

‘After America’: The World Reset
2012-03-17 – Callum Newman

‘After America’: Threats and Opportunities
2012-03-16 – Callum Newman

China and The Revolution
2012-03-15 – Callum Newman

Cocktails and Central Banks
2012-03-14 – Callum Newman

Prelude to ‘After America’
2012-03-13 – Callum Newman

The BRICS: History in the Making

By MoneyMorning.com.au

Don’t worry if you’ve never heard of 3D printing. It’s so new it’s not on many radar screens yet.

But soon everyone will know about it.
Still in its very early stages, 3D printing is destined to have a huge impact on the entire world economy.

These “desktop factories” will one day become a $1 trillion industry – completely changing the traditional factory model forever.

It’s what’s known as a “disruptive technology.”

By the end of this decade, everyone from consumers to big businesses to solo inventors will be able to make their own unique products in just a couple of hours.

Need a special tool? Or a new spare part?

Soon you will be able to fire up the 3D printer and make one from composite materials.

Indeed, I recently watched a YouTube video of Z Corp. making an adjustable wrench from high-tech compounds. It was a copy made from metal.

Though it weighed less than the original, the “printed” wrench worked just as well and looked every bit as strong.

And let’s not gloss over the medical products that can be created by these revolutionary printers. An 83-year-old woman in Europe recently received a new jaw doctors printed with titanium powder.

Medical team members said they made the implant in just a few hours compared with the several days usually required with existing methods.

That’s why I say this technology symbolises the Era of Radical Change. Now, anyone who knows computer basics can make or invent products on the fly.

3D Printing: A New Wave of Innovation

Technically, you don’t really “print” a new product, though the process is similar. Rather than putting ink on paper, the system creates the product by adding thin layers of special polymers and some metals.

This is literally “cutting edge” high tech that is destined to become big business.

I believe it is the 21st century equivalent of the laser printer and the dawn of desktop publishing in the 1980s that changed the entire print industry.

But don’t take my word for it…

Let’s hear from Hewlett-Packard (NYSE: HPQ), the high-tech giant that knows both types of printers extremely well.

The Silicon Valley leader now offers a high-end unit made for professional use. Its DesignJet Color 3D printer reportedly sells for $20,000.

But consider this: 3D printing will soon come to the masses at prices they can afford.

Today, MakerBot sells its Replicator for $1,749. Its users can download free modelling software such as TinkerCAD or Sketchup from Google Inc. (NASDAQ: GOOG) to print their own products.

Small-cap leader 3D Systems (NYSE: DDD) also recently launched the Cube, a competing device that lists for $1,299. A related website, Cubify.com, combines the simplicity of a colouring book with robust digital resources.

The firm’s CEO, Abraham N. Reichental, told BBC news that 3D Systems already has 1,000 workers – and nearly as many patents.

Now just think of what will happen when the price of these machines drops to $500….

We’re talking mass customisation of a wide range of goods, from forks to jewellery to high-tech ski helmets.

When this happens, 3D printing will undoubtedly unleash a whole new wave of innovation.

And for a very simple reason…

Inventors will be able to use a low-cost 3D printer to truly unleash the power of their imaginations.

When that happens, creativity has the potential to increase exponentially.

There will be no more spending thousands of dollars to have a specialty firm make a mould before you can even build the prototype.

3D Printing: Endless Possibilities

Now you know why the top brass at the Smithsonian just gave 3D printing their stamp of approval.

You see, the world’s largest museum boasts more than 137 million objects. But only a few remain on display at any point in time.

With 3D printing, officials can scan originals with special software. Then they can “print” replicas they can loan to other museums.

At the very least, the Smithsonian can afford to make digital 3D images of its vast collection it can then store for later access.

According to a recent story by CNET, the museum already touts a 3D printed-replica of a Thomas Jefferson statue, which they say is the “largest 3D printed museum quality historical replica” on earth.

Meanwhile, 3D printing has also created other products with a definite “wow” factor.

Take the case of the two British researchers who printed their own spy plane in a week – it took two days to design on a computer and five days to make.

The small, unmanned plane with a wingspan of about 4.5 feet soared at 100 MPH. You can watch a YouTube video of what’s touted as the first flight of its kind here.

The European aerospace giant EADS also uses the technology to make specialty aircraft parts.

They’ve started with items like brackets that hold parts in place. But their long-term goal is to print the entire wing of a jetliner.

German supplier EOS says it gets parts orders from car and aerospace firms. And also from… dentists.

EOS says it can create up to 450 dental crowns in one day. That compares with about a dozen for most firms using conventional systems.

Not even music is immune to the disruptive impact of 3D printing. Last year, EOS used a specialty compound to make parts for a violin.

A violin maker assembled the parts into a working instrument that was then played by a concert violinist.

Clearly, 3D printing is destined to have a huge impact on the global economy.

I believe it could be worth $1 trillion in as little as a decade.

It’s a matter of simple math.

The global economy measures about $60 trillion. Of that, manufacturing accounts for 17%, or $10.2 trillion.

If 3D printing captures just 10% of the sector that would total just over $1 trillion.

That’s why I say we will see lots of opportunities to invest directly in this technology, or in firms using it to improve profit margins.

Either way, it is time to open your eyes to the possibilities of 3D printing.

Otherwise you’ll miss the Next Big Thing that will change the future of manufacturing.

Michael Robinson
Defence and Technology Specialist, Money Morning (USA)

Publisher’s Note: This article originally appeared in Money Morning USA.

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‘After America’: The World Reset
2012-03-17 – Callum Newman

‘After America’: Threats and Opportunities
2012-03-16 – Callum Newman

China and The Revolution
2012-03-15 – Callum Newman

Cocktails and Central Banks
2012-03-14 – Callum Newman

Prelude to ‘After America’
2012-03-13 – Callum Newman

3D Printing: How “Desktop Factories” Will Create the Next $1 Trillion Industry

Amarin Corp. (NASDAQ:AMRN) announced Tuesday that it was granted a key U.S. patent for its heart-drug candidate AMER-101, a treatment for high triglyceride levels.The product is currently waiting for approval by the FDA and should have a decision by late July.Share of the company were up 6% in midday trading.Amarin (NASDAQ:AMRN) has potential upside of 98.9% based on a current price of $11.23 and an average consensus analyst price target of $22.33.

USDJPY moves sideways below 84.17. The sideways movement is likely consolidation of the uptrend from 76.02. Support is at the lower line of the price channel on 4-hour chart, as long as the channel support holds, we’d expect uptrend to resume, and another rise towards 85.00 is still possible. On the downside, a clear break below the channel support will indicate that lengthier consolidation of the uptrend is underway, then the pair will find support around 82.50.

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