Month: March 2012

As investors wait for the anticipated merger of Glencore (LSE: GLEN) and Xstrata (LSE: XTA), M&A activity continues to heat up in mining and agriculture.

On February 6, I wrote about a potential blockbuster merger between commodity trading giant Glencore (LSE: GLEN) and global mining firm Xstrata (LSE: XTA).

The next day, the two companies confirmed their interests in an all-share merger totaling $90 billion. It’s the biggest potential mining merger in history.

Instantly, the combined firms would become the world’s largest thermal coal exporter, the largest zinc producer and third-largest copper miner.

Yet it could be a while before the merger is complete.

As the Wall Street Journal reports, “It may take until early 2013 for the mining mega-merger to win regulatory approval from the EU – as well as the US, China, South Africa and Canada – and to win over reluctant shareholders.”

Also, with no other companies bidding up Xstrata, Glencore is in no rush to change its terms any time soon.

So as the world waits, both firms have continued searching for more M&A opportunities.

And Glencore just found a big one. It just purchased Viterra Inc. (TSX: VT; ASX: VTA, OTC: VTRAF) for $6.2 billion.

(Our experts recommended Viterra to Investment U Plus subscribers on January 19. With a healthy boost from Glencore’s premium, Viterra is up 50% since our recommendation.)

Glencore Moves in On AgriBusiness

Based out of Regina, Canada, Viterra is Canada’s largest grain handler.

With a market cap of $5.9 billion, the company has extensive operations across Western Canada and Australia. It also owns facilities in the United States, New Zealand and China.

Viterra’s business is managed through three interrelated segments: grain handling and marketing, agri-products, and processing.

By purchasing Viterra, Glencore will instantly make itself a major player in the global agribusiness. That’s because Canada and Australia are among the top grain exporting nations worldwide.

Until now, Glencore has only had a 9% share of the global grain market.

Like Xstrata, Glencore must again wait for regulatory approval before it can acquire Viterra. But it shouldn’t have the same issues it’s having with Xstrata.

You see, as soon as the deal goes through, Glencore will sell the majority of Viterra’s Canadian assets to Agrium Inc. (NYSE: AGU; TSX: AGU) and Richardson International, two Canadian agribusiness firms.

Reuters says, “By divesting some grain elevators, mills and farm-supply dealers, the Swiss-based trader aims to allay concerns that Ottawa might block the deal on national sovereignty or competition grounds.”

You may be wondering then, why is Glencore even buying Viterra if it’s just going to disband the company and sell much of it?

As you’ll see, it’s all part of Glencore’s strategy.

A Slew of Potential Takeovers

This August, the Canadian government will end the Canadian Wheat Board’s monopoly on marketing and producing wheat and barley in Western Canada.

As Canada’s largest grain handler, Viterra is in a prime position to pick up business when the government mandated monopoly is officially over.

By buying Viterra, Glencore is now set to gobble up this market share and become a major competitor with the likes of Archer Daniels Midland (NYSE: ADM), Bunge Limited (NYSE: BG), and Cargill.

But Glencore isn’t stopping at Viterra…

The company’s director of agricultural products, Chris Mahoney, says Canada is “…a platform for our North American agricultural operations, and in the future, we will look to expansion, with Regina as the headquarters, into the United States.”

Commodity investors will be monitoring the grain industry throughout this summer.

That’s because Glencore’s aggressive ambitions are poised to set off a wave of takeovers in the grain sector…

• Gavilon Group, a privately owned US grain trader, already put itself up for sale for an estimated $5 billion. Glencore is speculated as a potential suitor.

• Legumex Walker (TSX: LWP), a small specialty seeds firm based out of Winnipeg, Canada could end up a takeover target.

• In Australia, GrainCorp (ASX: GNC) and Goodman Fielder (ASX: GFF) are regarded as a potential takeover candidates.

• And the Financial Times reports, “Industry executives stretch the list of potential targets in the grain sector to include… CHS Inc. (Nasdaq: CHSCP)” as well.

It’s uncertain what effect all of this will have on food prices. But don’t be surprised if the answer ends up being not much. Still, you can find some great opportunities to offset your food costs by keeping a watchful eye on this exciting development.

Good Investing,

Mike Kapsch

Article by Investment U

Here’s today’s Central Bank News link list, click through if you missed the previous central bank news link list.  Remember, if you want to submit links for inclusion in the daily link list, just email them through to us or post them in the comments section below.

For that money you can’t lose, Harry Browne recommends investing in a “permanent portfolio” that provides safety, stability, and simplicity.

I guess when you’re an investor or in the business it’s your mission to find vehicles, processes and theories that beat the market. This isn’t just a returns driven game but you must understand what you’re getting into in regards to your personal make-up and the market climate.

Talking to an old work buddy I was reminded of time long ago in a galaxy far away when money market accounts at your local mutual fund company gave you 4.5% return. Now, when monthly inflation squashes Treasury yields, what do you do for safety?

Here’s one option.

The Permanent Portfolio

If you pick up Harry Browne’s Fail-Safe Investing: Lifelong Financial Security in 30 Minutes, you’ll be introduced to his Permanent Portfolio. The libertarian/financial writer/presidential candidate’s theory has been out there for about 30 years and seems to be standing the test of time.

Browne divides investment money into two categories:

• Money you cannot afford to lose.
• Money you can afford to lose.

For that money you can’t lose, Browne recommends investing in a “permanent portfolio” that provides three key features: safety, stability, and simplicity. He argues that your permanent portfolio should protect you against all economic possibilities in the future, provide a steady performance, and be simple to put in play.

What makes up the Permanent Portfolio?

How do you not lose money? Harry Browne feels you need to select various investment components in a manner where one of the asset classes is favored in any economic climate. Here is the make-up. Each class should hold an equal proportion for as long as you’re in it:

• 25% in U.S. stocks, to provide a strong return during times of prosperity. For this portion of the portfolio, Browne recommends a basic S&P 500 index fund
• 25%  in long-term U.S. Treasury bonds, which do well during prosperity and during deflation (but which do poorly during other economic cycles).
• 25% in cash in order to hedge against periods of contraction or recession. A money market fund.
• 25% in precious metals (gold, specifically) in order to provide protection during periods of inflation. Browne recommends gold bullion coins.

Once each year, you rebalance the portfolio. If any part of the portfolio has dropped to less than 15% or grown to over 35% of the total, then you reset all four segments to 25%.

Because this asset allocation is diversified, the entire portfolio performs well under most circumstances. Browne writes:

The portfolio’s safety is assured by the contrasting qualities of the four investments — which ensure that any event that damages one investment should be good for one or more of the others. And no investment, even at its worst, can devastate the portfolio — no matter what surprises lurk around the corner — because no investment has more than 25% of your capital.

Keep in Mind…

This is that old active versus passive investing prerogative. It’s a passive strategy built on diversification. It doesn’t use market timing.

It’s a defensive investment strategy that also happens to produce a decent return. But remember, its goal is stability.

The Permanent Portfolio strategy’s returns have a low correlation with the returns of the stock market (a correlation coefficient of 0.58), meaning that if you’re in it, you only reap the benefits of market gains about 50% of the time.

It has also enjoyed better than average returns over the past 10 years because of its high allocation in precious metals. As interest rates rise, the appreciation in precious metals will likely stall. Meaning a more equity-heavy passive portfolio, such as Alexander Green’s Gone Fishin’ Portfolio is likely to offer better growth going forward.

Good Investing,

Jason Jenkins

Article by Investment U

By TraderVox.com

Tradervox (Dublin) – Euro continued its march against the US dollar during the US session after rising in the European session. The single currency has taken out the 1.3300 levels and is currently trading around 1.3323, up about 0.40% for the day. The resistance may be seen at the current levels and above at 1.3360. The support may be seen at 1.3260 and below at 1.3190. US pending home sales declined below expectation and it triggered the risk on sentiment. The home sales declined by 0.5% against the expected rise of 1%.

The Sterling pound also rose against the US dollar as it broke the 1.5900 levels and is aiming higher. The high so far is 1.5955 and the pair is trading at 1.5928, up about 0.37% for the day. The resistance may be seen at 1.6000 and 1.6050. The support may be seen at 1.5920 and below at 1.5860.

The broad US dollar weakening move was evident in the USD/CHF pair as US dollar loses levels against the Swiss Frank. The pair has come from a high of 0.9124 and plunged below the 0.9100 levels. It is trading at 0.9040, down about 0.43% for the day. The support may be seen at 0.9010 and below at 0.8960. The resistance may be seen at 0.9060 and above at 0.9100.

The USD/JPY pair held on when US dollar is losing in most of the pairs. It traded in a range of 82.60 and 82.90 range and is presently being quoted  at 82.80, up about half a percent for the day. The resistance may be seen at 82.90 and above at 83.40. The support may be seen at 82.50 and at 82.20.

The Australian dollar has taken out an important resistance of 1.0500 and printed a fresh high of 1.0543. The pair is currently trading around 1.0508, up about 0.43% for the day. The resistance may be seen at 1.0560 and at 1.0600. The support may be seen at 1.0500 and below at 1.0450.

The US dollar index lost the levels as it is trading near its low at 79.22.

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Investors sent stocks higher on Monday morning as the market is beginning to price in the possibility of QE3 happening later this year. Recent remarks by Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke suggest that the US economy still needs support and that further bond purchases could be coming.

By JW Jones, OptionsTradingSignals.com

“And if you look away, you’ll be doing what they say.

And if you look alive, you’ll be singled out and tried.

If you take home anything, let it be your will to think.

The more cynical you become, the better off you’ll be.

Something to believe in.”

~ The Offspring, Something to Believe In ~

The recent rally has been breathtaking, however the majority of investors have missed out on a large portion of these gains as significant levels of cash have been either moved to bond funds or taken out of equity markets consistently during this rally. Let’s face it, financial markets around the world are not what they once were.

U.S. equity markets in particular are manipulated by high frequency trading which is wreaking havoc in the marketplace in terms of potential short term volatility expansions and “flash crashes” that can be isolated to one underlying stock.

In addition to the high frequency trading robots, the Federal Reserve is equally involved in the direct manipulation of financial markets through record easing adjustments. The Federal Reserve has unleashed massive amounts of liquidity while keeping interest rates incredibly low which has produced an environment where the risk-on attitude permeates the landscape.

As a basic example of the failure of recent Federal Reserve policies and their impact generally on the valuation of various underlying assets, I submit for consideration to readers a 20 year price chart of the U.S. Dollar Index.

 20 Year U.S. Dollar Index Chart

It boggles the mind to consider that Chairman Bernanke routinely denies that the Federal Reserve has failed to maintainwhat he calls “price stability.” When looking at the chart of the valuation of the U.S. Dollar against a basket of foreign currencies, most 5^th graders if given the context would proclaim that the Federal Reserve has failed in their objective to maintain price stability.

As time passes and the financial crisis moves further into the rear view mirror, average Americans have varied views about the economy, the stock market, and trust in their government. For most Americans, the stock market does not make sense because they view the stock market and the economy as the same thing. Sophisticated investors understand that stocks and the economy are two totally separate issues, particularly with the amount of manipulation that has been taken place since 2007.

This manipulation has not gone unnoticed by the average American. Now more than ever regular people are not only distrustful of domestic financial markets, but they do not trust Wall Street, and for good reason. In light of this, data compiled during the recent uptrend suggests that retail investors have been pulling money out of equities for weeks even though prices continue to move higher. The chart shown below courtesy of ZeroHedge.com illustrates the recent trend.

U.S. Domestic Mutual Fund Flows

The chart above shows the price of SPY represented as the black line and equity fund inflows/outflows as the red area. As can be seen above, retail investors have been pulling massive amounts of capital out of equity based mutual funds over the past few months as equity prices have rallied. The retail crowd, commonly referred to as sheep or courtesy of Goldman Sachs “muppets,” are selling into the rally.

So why is the retail crowd selling? They do not believe that this rally will last because the real world around them is arguing in the face of everything that this rally stands for. Gasoline prices are crippling the lower and middle classes further reducing their disposable income. Higher food and energy prices paired with job scarcity and serious concerns have begun to mount.

The average retail investor believes the game is rigged at this point and the everyday investor is only helping Wall Street bankers fund their lavish lifestyles. Ultimately, the retail crowd likelybelieves that the only way to win the game is to simply not play.

Will time prove the supposed sheep wrong? Statistically one would think so, but in this case the retail folks may just be right. Headwinds surround the global macroeconomic landscape. Europe is moving into a recession which is being exacerbated by austerity measures. Data came out yesterday (Thursday) that the PMI in several European countries and China contracted. Ireland missed growth targets and central banks around the world continue to print unprecedented levels of fiat currency as if printing money and creating more debt will solve a debt problem.

All of these issues are concerns, but ultimately price is the final arbiter in the world of flickering ticks. From these eyes there are two possible outcomes for the price action in the S&P 500. The first outcome which I believe is more likely is a test of the 2011 highs which results in a snap-back rally that takes us deeper into the 1,420 – 1,440 resistance zone. The chart below demonstrates the bullish potential outcome.

SPX Bullish Outcome

Price action at some point will backtest the 2011 highs and the reaction at that point will be critical. Generally speaking price action does not break a key support or resistance level on the first attempt. Usually the 2^nd or 3^rd attempt will result in a break of a key support / resistance level.

In this case, a test in coming days would likely result in a bounce and reversion to the previous trend. A possible, albeit unlikely outcome would be a break below the 2011 support zone which would then come close to triggering a trend change. The daily chart below demonstrates the bearish potential outcome.

SPX Bearish Outcome

I do firmly believe that the U.S. Dollar Index will hold clues about the future for the price action of equities. According to cycle analysis, the Dollar should come into is daily cycle low sometime in the next few weeks, if not sooner.

From that low, we should see another move higher for the Dollar Index which I anticipate will test the recent highs near 81. The daily chart of the U.S. Dollar Index futures is shown below.

U.S. Dollar Index Futures Daily Chart

If my expectations are somewhat accurate, the short term weakness in the Dollar will assist stocks and risk assets in a move above recent highs. In the case of the S&P 500, a move to key resistance at 1,420 – 1,450 could occur.

Readers should keep in mind that weakness could be disguised as just a consolidation near the 20 period moving average which has occurred in the past when analyzing the Dollar Index. However, I would not rule out one more leg lower before the Dollar finds a bottom.

Gold, silver, and the miners have been under selling pressure for some time and are likely due for a bounce to the upside. The weakness in the Dollar discussed above would allow precious metals and miners to work off some of the short term oversold conditions that we are seeing presently. The daily chart of gold futures is shown below.

Gold Futures Daily Chart

After a move higher into or around the $1,700 / ounce price level for gold, I believe that another leg lower will be quite likely.

Conclusion

Readers should be mindful that the 1^st Quarter will end on March 30^th for financial markets. Window dressing and portfolio painting are likely to occur next week. I would not be at all surprised to see the tape painted to the upside during the final week of March after this brief pullback that we witnessed on Thursday and Friday morning.

Money managers want to show off their returns while demonstrating ownership of key names that drove performance during the quarter such as AAPL. I expect the price action on Friday and the rest of next week to have relatively light volume and a bias to the upside.

Barring any major financial news or geopolitical event, I do not expect to see price action work below the 2011 highs in the near term. The possibility cannot be totally ruled out, but it would seemingly be a rare occurrence to see a major support level break down on the first back test attempt. We may see lower prices early next week, but if the 2011 highs hold the bulls remain in control in the short term.

The real question readers should ask themselves is if prices do extend higher and we reach my target resistance zone for the S&P 500, will the retail crowd jump in and push prices higher, or will the banks be trading with each other as a major top forms? In coming days and weeks we should find out once and for all just who the real muppets truly are.

Over the past 5 months subscribers of my options trading newsletter have won 19 out of 20 trades. That’s a 95% win rate,  pocketing 294% in gains focusing only on low risk credit spread options strategies.

If you are looking for a simple one trade per week trading style then be sure to join www.OptionsTradingSignals.com today with our 14 Day Trial

Jw Jones

This material should not be considered investment advice. J.W. Jones is not a registered investment advisor. Under no circumstances should any content from this article or the OptionsTradingSignals.com website be used or interpreted as a recommendation to buy or sell any type of security or commodity contract. This material is not a solicitation for a trading approach to financial markets. Any investment decisions must in all cases be made by the reader or by his or her registered investment advisor. This information is for educational purposes only.

Source: ForexYard

According to its usual weekly scale, gold and silver did not move much in last weeks’ trading, despite seeing some slight gains on Friday.Gold showed quite a sharp rise on Friday by gaining 1.21% to $1,662 whole silver also traded up by gaining 2.96% to $31.35. Overall in the month of March, gold showed a decline of 2.86% and silver showed a greater decline of 6.84%. The similar patterns shown by the two metals strongly indicate a positive correlation between the two, even though Silver has underperformed more than Gold this month. Currently, the two metals are trading up.

Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke recently gave his speech and stated that the labour market is still weak. This statement could possibly push gold and silver prices up on speculation of possibly another stimulus plan in the future. ECB President Mario Draghi is also due to speak today, which could impact the Euro and consequently commodities.

There a number of important reports and news events to be released today following Bernankes speech:

U.S. Pending Home Sales: This report shows the changes in pending home sales in the U.S. for February 2012; in the recent report the pending home sales index rose by 2% compared with the previous month’s index; based on last week’s reports on housing sales, the pending sales could possibly show a decline. If this happens to be the case, it could have a negative impact on the Greenback.

German Business Climate Survey: This survey estimates the developments of the business climate of Germany.If this report maintains its positivity of recent months, it could possibly have a positive impact on the Euro

ECB President Draghi Speaks: Following the March ECB rate decision in which the rate remained at 1%, the President of the ECB will give a speech. The Greek debt crisis and the progress of the EU economy are the two main issues that could possibly come up. Draghis’ speech may influence the direction of the EUR/USD Major Pair.

To conclude, last week saw both gold and silver prices continue to move with no solid trends or in no clear directions. There is a strong possibility that the two metals may move in similar patterns this week. Ben Bernankes’ Speech could end up being positive for gold and silver whilst the U.S Pending home sales report is also well anticipated as it could also turn out positive for the two metals.

Forex Market Analysis provided by ForexYard.

© 2006 by FxYard Ltd

Disclaimer: Trading Foreign Exchange carries a high level of risk and may not be suitable for all investors. There is a possibility that you could sustain a loss of all of your investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with Foreign Exchange trading.

London Gold Market Report
from Ben Traynor
BullionVault
Monday 26 March 2012, 08:30 EDT

WHOLESALE MARKET gold prices jumped to $1679 an ounce ahead of Monday’s US trading – up nearly 1% on last week’s close – while stocks, commodities and the Euro also gained and government bond prices dipped, after Federal Reserve chairman Ben Bernanke said the US economy still needs  “continued accommodative polices” despite recent signs of improvement.

Silver prices meantime rose to $32.76 per ounce – up 1.5% from where they ended Friday.

“A wide range of indicators suggests that the job market has been improving, which is a welcome development indeed,” Bernanke told the national Association for Business and Economics Annual Conference on Monday morning.

“Still, conditions remain far from normal, as shown, for example, by the high level of long-term unemployment and the fact that jobs and hours worked remain well below pre-crisis peaks.”

Bernanke added that a fall in the unemployment rate “will likely require a more-rapid expansion of production and demand from consumers and businesses, a process that can be supported by continued accommodative policies.”

Over in India, where many gold dealers remain on strike over the recent increase in gold import duties, physical gold demand “remains low”, says Standard Bank commodities strategist Walter de Wet.

“We do expect demand to pick up in April as the Akshaya Tritiya festival in late April is fast approaching,” De Wet adds, noting that Akshaya Tritiya is India’s second-biggest festival for buying gold.

Indian gold imports will drop to 665 tonnes this year – a drop of nearly one third on 2011’s figure –according to the median estimate in a poll of importers, jewelers and brokerages conducted by newswire Reuters.

European leaders are set to expand the size of the region’s so-called ‘firewall’, according to press reports Monday.

German chancellor Angela Merkel and finance minister Wolfgang Schaeuble have dropped their opposition to combining unused funds in the €440 billion European Financial Stability Facility with the €500 billion European Stability Mechanism when the latter becomes operational in July, German newspaper Der Spiegel reports.

Accounting for funds already committed to Greece, Ireland and Portugal, the move would boost the amount of bailout funds available to around €740 billion, according to the Financial Times.

At last month’s G20 meeting in Mexico, European leaders were told they should do more towards solving the Eurozone crisis before asking for a greater contribution from the International Monetary Fund.

Eurozone finance ministers are due to meet this Friday in Copenhagen.

“The key thing now is to conclude the comprehensive crisis response,” said Olli Rehn, European Union commissioner for economic and monetary affairs, over the weekend.

Elsewhere in Europe, Italian prime minister Mario Monti warned this weekend that Spain “hasn’t paid enough attention to its public accounts”.

“It doesn’t take much to recreate the risks of contagion.”

Yields on benchmark 10-Year Spanish government bonds have risen from 4.99% at the start of this month to over 5.5% last week – though they remain below the Euro era peaks of 6.7% hit last November.

Earlier this month, Spain’s prime minister Mariano Rajoy said he was making a “sovereign decision” to ignore the EU’s deficit target of 4.4% of GDP, setting his own at 5.8%, although Spain subsequently agreed to additional budget cuts.

Spanish unions meantime are due to stage a general strike on Thursday.

Banks are set to shrink their balance sheets by a further additional $1 trillion over the next two years, selling assets and closing operational divisions, according to a joint report by Morgan Stanley and consultancy Oliver Wyman.

“It is really decision time for investment banks,” reckons Morgan Stanley’s Huw van Steenis.

“The market underestimates the degree to which banks will rationalize their portfolios of activities.”

The net long position of so-called speculative gold futures and options traders on the new York Comex – measured as the difference between bullish and bearish contracts – fell to its lowest level since the first week of January last week.

The speculative net long position fell 15.4% in the week ended last Tuesday – equivalent to 78.1 tonnes of gold bullion – according to Commodity Futures Trading Commission data published on Friday.

“The activity in the futures market suggests a return to the less favorable view on gold of two weeks ago,” says Standard Bank analyst Marc Ground.

The world’s largest gold ETF, the SPDR Gold Trust (GLD), meantime saw its holdings fall by 10.6 tonnes to 1282.7 tonnes in the week ended last Friday.

Over the same period, the iShares Silver Trust (SLV), the world’s largest silverETF, saw its holdings drop by 36.3 tonnes to 9716.4 tonnes.

Ben Traynor
BullionVault

Gold value calculator   |   Buy gold online at live prices

Editor of Gold News, the analysis and investment research site from world-leading gold ownership service BullionVault, Ben Traynor was formerly editor of the Fleet Street Letter, the UK’s longest-running investment letter. A Cambridge economics graduate, he is a professional writer and editor with a specialist interest in monetary economics.

(c) BullionVault 2011

Please Note: This article is to inform your thinking, not lead it. Only you can decide the best place for your money, and any decision you make will put your money at risk. Information or data included here may have already been overtaken by events – and must be verified elsewhere – should you choose to act on it.

For the next week we are in favor of some more downward consolidation but for that a decisive break below 108.48/108.40 is required, as mentioned above. Such a break should bring further downward move first towards 107.50 and then possibly towards 106.50/106.65. This would represent the supports of 55-day EMA as well as the upper edge of daily Ichimoku cloud. Even if EUR/JPY breaks below this resistance zone, we would expect very strong support near 105.63 (March 7th).

Please note that we will be taking any downward moves as consolidation and not as bearish trend till any strong break below the psychological 105.00 level takes place.

On the upside a break over first the recent 111.43 and then 111.62 (end of October 2011 resistance) is required for further upward moves towards 114.20 or more.

Please note that EUR/JPY has started showing the early signs of trend reversal for upside but a better indication of the same will only come with a decisive break over 111.60 and then 112.00 and when 110.00 becomes a support level instead of resistance.

Further Readings:

1) EUR/JPY forecast for weekly overview of the currency pair.

2) Daily technical analysis of EUR/JPY.

3) Forecast of GBP/JPY.

By forexabode.com

Weak economic data out of China, Europe and the US lately have made Senior Strategist Ib Fredslund Madsen wonder if the economy has the ‘spring blues’.

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