USDCHF broke out of the range after failing to break below the support at 89.30. 89.30 was a little below the Fibonacci 61.8% retracement of the upward move during October 27th, 2011 to January 8th, 2012. During the last week the pair went up to 91.49 before closing for the week at 0.9141, which was little below the 55-day EMA resistance i.e. 0.9168.
On the upside if USD/CHF breaks above the 0.9168 (55-day EMA) and then 0.9205 minor resistance then for the next week we would expect some more upward gains after a possible sideways move. Such a move should again bring resistance in the range of 0.9260 to 0.9300. A break above 0.9300 and then the resistance of the upper edge of the daily Ichimoku cloud i.e. 0.9350 will indicate that the recent downward consolidation is over and we can expect upward gains first towards 0.9400 and possibly more.
On the downside we would expect support over 0.9020 and in case there is a strong break of that support then our short-term focus will again turn towards downside for a retest of the recent 0.8930.
Please also check the detailed usd/chf outlook and daily technical analysis for usd/chf.
