Central Bank of Egypt Holds Rate at 9.25%

The Central Bank of Egypt held its overnight deposit rate unchanged at 9.25%, and the overnight lending rate at 10.25% and 7-day repo at 9.75%.  The Bank said: “Looking ahead, the current political transformation may continue to have ramifications on both consumption as well as investment decisions, adversely weighing on key sectors within the economy. Moreover, downside risks surrounding the global recovery have mounted on the back of fiscal and banking sector challenges facing the Euro Area and possible spillovers to other regions. These factors, combined, pose downside risks to domestic GDP going forward.”

Previously the Bank maintained its interest rates unchanged when it announced policy settings in October this year.  Egypt reported annual consumer price inflation of 9.55% in December, up from 8.21% in September, 8.49% in August, 10.4% in July, compared to 11.8% in June, 11.9% in May, and down from 12.1% in April.  The toll of the revolution was seen as Egypt’s gross national product contracted by 4.2% year-on-year in the third quarter of the 2011/2012 fiscal year and investment fell 26% due to uncertainty arising from the political upheaval.

Real GDP expanded by 0.3% in Q1 2011/2012 (0.4% in Q4 2010/2011), full year GDP growth was 1.8% in 2010/2011 vs 5.1% in the 2009/2010 year.  The Egyptian pound (EGP) has weakened about 3% against the US dollar over the past year, while the USDEGP exchange rate last traded around 6.03

Czech National Bank Holds Interest Rate at 0.75%

The Ceska Narodni Banka held the two-week repurchase rate at 0.75% as expected, and kept the discount rate unchanged at 0.25% and Lombard rate at 1.75%.  The Bank said: “Monetary-policy relevant inflation will be close to the target over the entire forecast horizon. Headline inflation will rise temporarily to just above 3% in 2012 owing to a VAT increase, but will fall back below the target at the start of 2013. Consistent with the forecast is stability of market interest rates in the near future and a modest decline thereafter. The risks to the forecast are balanced.”

The Czech central bank also kept the repurchase rate unchanged at its November meeting last year; its last change was a 25 basis point cut in May 2010.  The Czech Republic reported annual inflation of 1.8% in September, compared to 1.7% in August and July, 1.8% in June, 2% in May, 1.6% in April, and 1.7% in March this year, and within the Bank’s official inflation target of 2%.  


The Czech economy contracted -0.1% in Q3, and grew 0.1% in Q2 (0.9% in Q1) last year, placing annual GDP growth at 1.2% in Q3, 2.2% in Q2 (2.8% in Q1).  The Czech Republic’s currency, the Koruna (CZK) has weakened about 8% against the US dollar over the past year, and the USDCZK exchange rate last traded around 18.96

Central Bank of Kenya Holds Interest Rate at 18.00%

The Central Bank of Kenya kept its benchmark lending rate steady at 18.00%, and held the Cash Reserve Ratio at 5.25%.  The central bank Governor, Njuguna Ndung’u, said: ” In view of developments and the need to ensure that inflation declines to levels consistent with the Government’s target, the Committee decided to retain the Central Bank Rate at 18.0 percent. This will allow time for the policy measures in place to work out and deliver decisive results on inflation and inflation expectations.”


At its December meeting the CBK increased the interest rate by 150bps to 18.00%, after hiking by 550 basis points and raising the Cash Reserve Ratio by 50bps to 5.25%at its November meeting .  That move followed a 400bp increase of the interest rate to 11.00% at its October meeting, after raising 75bps in September, and previously increasing, and subsequently decreasing the discount window rate by 75 basis points to 6.25%.


Kenya experienced annual headline inflation of 18.93 in December, down slightly from 19.72% in November, but still higher than 18.91% in October, 17.3% in September, 16.7% in August, up from 15.5% in July, and up sharply from 9.19% in March this year, according to inflation data from the Kenya National Bureau of Statistics.  The Central Bank of Kenya has an inflation target of 5 percent.  


Kenya reported seasonally adjusted GDP growth of -4.6% in Q2, compared to +2% in Q1.  
A Kenyan Ministry of Finance official noted that Kenya is expected to record economic growth around 5-5.5% in 2011, and 6% in 2012.  

The Kenyan Shilling (KES) has weakened about 3% against the US dollar over the past year (having weakened by as much as 31% at the bottom); meanwhile the USDKES exchange rate last traded around 83.63

Analyst Moves: RIMM, ANF

Research in Motion (RIMM) was downgraded today by Jefferies (JEF) to underperform from hold with a price target of $15 price target, ad the company may delay or abandon plans to license its OS. Shares are lower by over 1.3 percent.

Turkcell: Benefiting from an Emerging Markets Rally

By The Sizemore Letter

You know that you’re up against some fierce competition when a stock you recommend is up by more than double the S&P 500’s return and yet you’re in 5th place.  Yet such is life in early 2012.

Turkcell (NYSE: $TKC), my pick for the InvestorPlace “10 Best Stocks for 2012” contest, is off to a great start.  Through February 1, the stock was up 12 percent for the year, compared to the 5.5 percent gains in the S&P 500.

With the January rally in industrials and materials firms, Caterpillar (NYSE: $CAT) and Alcoa (NYSE: $AA) jumped out to an early start, up 22 percent and 18 percent, respectively.  Long-time Sizemore Investment Letter recommendation Microsoft (Nasdaq: $MSFT) has also enjoyed a nice bounce this year, up 15 percent.  But the real winner so far has been medical device maker Mako Pharmaceutical (Nasdaq: $MAKO), up a remarkable 44 percent.

The best performing stocks on the list are some of the most cyclical, and I am quite happy to see that.  It means that investor risk appetites are returning.   Barring a major blowup coming out of Europe, I expect this to continue and I recommend that investors maintain over-weighted positions in the beaten-down markets of Europe and emerging markets.

2011 was a bad year for emerging markets in general and Turkish stocks in particular, and the strong start to 2012 leads me to believe the rout is officially over.  All things in life are fleeting, and perhaps nothing more so than stock market gains.  Still, buying shares of world-class companies when their prices are temporarily depressed is as close to a fool-proof investment strategy as I have ever seen, and the 2011 emerging market bear market has given us a great opportunity in Turkcell.

Vote for Turkcell

Apparently, republican presidential candidate Mitt Romney agrees. Upon releasing his tax returns to public scrutiny, it was revealed that the former Massachusetts governor is a Turkcell shareholder.

In past articles, I written about the virtues of following the trades of other investors (see “When in Doubt, Follow the Greats”).  I’m not so sure Mr. Romney qualifies, but his ownership of the shares certainly raises their profile.

In other news, Turkcell confirmed recent media reports saying it is interested in acquiring Bulgarian telecom operator Vivacom.   An expanded presence in Bulgaria would be a natural growth strategy for Turkcell.  In addition to expanding in its home market, which is still far from saturated, Turkcell continues to establish itself as a leading telecom provider in Eastern Europe and the Middle East.  Turkcell faces stiff competition for assets and new consumers in these markets from Britain’s Vodafone (NYSE: $VOD), among others, though the company has repeatedly proven that it can compete against its much larger rivals.

2012 is off to a great start, and I expect it to be a very profitable year for emerging market investors.

 

2 Solar Energy Stocks to Watch

Solar Energy Stocks

While the story for solar power in the developed world has been nothing investors can clap about, they might find something worth their applause in emerging markets.

For a majority of the world, solar power costs much more than energy from conventional power plants, particularly if you include battery costs for storing energy. But for those living in undeveloped regions, solar power actually offers substantial benefits in cost.

The dropping prices of polysilicon, coupled with other technological advances, are opening up an enormous market for solar power. Along with some incredible buying opportunities for solar energy stocks.

Currently there are about 1.3 billion people around the globe who live in areas that have no access to grid electricity. And while most of these people are very poor, they actually pay a lot more for lighting their homes than people in developed countries.

Why are people paying more for lighting in undeveloped areas?

Because they’re using inefficient kerosene lamps, an archaic technology widely used almost a century ago in the United States.

It Makes Economic Sense

Today, kerosene lamp lighting costs twice as much compared to solar power.

Then there’s safety.

It’s estimated that 1.6 million people are killed each year due to indoor air pollution caused by burning kerosene, not to mention the deaths that occur from fires. And safe, solar powered bulbs can be 10 to 20 times brighter than kerosene lamps.

The switch to solar isn’t just for providing safer and cheaper light; there’s another power demand on the rise… mobile phones.

Mobile phones have become increasingly popular in Africa, where half the population of one billion now has a mobile phone. But in order for many to charge their phones, they have to rent a charger since they have no grid access or other form of electrical power.

The innovative companies below have seen an opportunity here, and are manufacturing and selling inexpensive solar lamps with special plug-ins for cellphones.

A Tool to Change the World

The San Francisco-based company d.light offers their d.light S250, a solar lamp with a mobile-phone charger that can provide up to 12 hours of light on a single day’s charge.

solar power investment

Currently on display in the British Museum, its curator Neil MacGregor has written a book A History of the World in 100 Objects, where he describes the d.light S250 as a tool that will change the world.

The S250 provides a highly efficient LED light that can illuminate an entire room and last over 50,000 hours. With four different brightness settings, it can provide up to 12 hours of bright light and 100 hours of bed light setting.

The S250 also offers the convenience of in-home mobile-phone charging. Designed with an outlet that can charge a wide range of mobile phones, it takes away the need for people to go out and rent costly chargers.

And the S250 is not alone; the company provides three different solar lantern models costing from $10 up to $45.

The company has really cracked into this market, and has sold more than a million lights in 40 countries. But d.light has even bigger goals for the future.

By the end of 2015, they hope to have their products in the hands of 50 million people. And by the end of 2020, they expect to have improved the quality of life of 100 million people.

Eight Minutes and Nineteen Seconds

Another smaller player trying to grab a piece of this growing market is Eight19. Based out of Cambridge, U.K., the company takes its name from the time it takes sunlight to reach the earth – eight minutes and nineteen seconds.

What separates Eight19 from d.light is its larger IndiGo system that includes a 2.5-watt solar panel (installed on the roof or a pole outside a home), a lithium-iron phosphate battery pack and two LED overhead lamps.

IndiGo solar panelThe cost for IndiGo is less than $50 and pays for itself in less than two year. And while the upfront price is too costly for many, Eight19 (along with other companies) offers a payment plan to make the system affordable.

Customers simply pay $10 for the system upfront and then pay a weekly fee for the power it generates. Every week, IndiGo users go to a local vendor and buy a scratch card for about $1. The card will give them a number that they then text to Eight19 for verification.

The company texts them back a code they put into a keypad that unlocks electricity from the device for a week, supplying power to the phone charger and LED lights.

While several competitors are trying a pay-as-you go system, Eight19 is ahead of the curve since they let customers upgrade their system once they have paid off their previous device (which takes about 18 months).

IndiGo customers can upgrade to bigger solar panels, larger batteries, more lights and the ability to power smaller devices.

It’s a great system. By using the money that would have been spent on renting cellphone charges and kerosene, customers can instead progressively build up their system.

Eventually a home could have enough power for larger appliances like refrigerators, or a sewing machine (something that can make them some money).

This technology can bring light and electricity not to just homes, but schools and workplaces in developing markets. Helping power internet connections, enabling laborers to work through the night and providing light for children to do their homework in the dark.

A Brighter Future for All

This is an incredible opportunity to invest in solar energy stocks. All the conditions are right for these solar power products to expand in emerging markets.

You have large, poor rural populations living in excessively sunny regions with no access to grid energy, who are also currently paying excessively high prices for their lighting needs.

For those who can even afford power, they spend a large portion of their income on kerosene for lamps (which provides no return) or have to travel to bigger towns a number of times a week to charge their phones.

Amid the declining cost of batteries, LED lighting and solar panels, in concert with inventive business plans, millions of households in Africa and other developing regions will continue to switch from unsophisticated kerosene lamps to safer and cleaner solar electrical lighting.

And while the companies mentioned above aren’t publicly traded, investors should keep an eye on the growing solar demand in emerging markets.

Two Solar Energy Stocks

Those who produce solar panels, like First Solar, Inc. (Nasdaq: FSLR), and manufacture polysilicon, like GT Advanced Technologies, Inc. (Nasdaq: GTAT), will start to see demand for their products increase as people with no access to grid energy continue to purchase products from companies like d.light and Eight19.

Good investing,

Ryan Fitzwater

Article by Investment U

Daily Dividend Report: SPG, PEP, ADM, WYNN, PRE

Simon Property Group (SPG) announced its quarterly dividend of 95 cents per share, an increase of about 6% over its prior dividend in November of 90 cents. The company also reported that it earned $363.8 million, or $1.24 a share, last quarter, compared with a profit of $218.8 million, or 74 cents a share, in the same period last year, beating analyst estimates of 90 cents.

Analyst Moves: APA, NOV

Apache (APA) was assigned a new outperform rating today by Credit Suisse (CS) with a $120 price target, as recent acquisition moves should lead to accelerated growth. Shares are higher by about 2.1 percent.