Month: January 2012

GBP/JPY mover the way as we indicated during last weekend and quoted above. The currency pair moved as high at 122.05 and found some resistance there. As we had mentioned during last weekend (quoted above) that we expected a very strong resistance zone between 121.80 and 122.80. The resistance took GBPJPY down towards 120.00 but a support came just above 120.00 to close the price for the week at 120.62.

As mentioned above that the range between 121.80 to 122.80 had proved to be an extremely strong resistance zone during November 2011 end to December 2011 end and we expect this range to have an strong resistance now also and only a break over 122.80 will make us expect any convincing upward gains towards the psychological resistance of 125.00 level.

During the next week, though we do not ignore the possibilities of some more upward gains but initially we will stay neutral. We will watch for the breaks above the recent resistance of 122.05 and then 122.20 to expect further gains as mentioned above. Also on the downward side we shall keep an eye for any firm break below 120.00 to expect a move towards a minor support near 119.45. Any break below 119.45 and then 119.20 will change our focus back towards downside for a retest of the recent low of 117.28. Please note that a break below 120.00 will be a break below both 22-day and 55-day EMA as well as the support of the slopping down upper edge of the daily Ichimoku cloud.

You may also check daily technical gbp/jpy analysis and the weekend gbpjpy forecast at ForexAbode Forex trading site.

USD/JPY broke the resistance we had mentioned that we would be watching and moved up to 78.22 as mentioned last weekend. The currency pair touched 78.28 and had a strong fall from there. Please also take a look about this resistance in the post under the subforum names “Watchouts-Observations-Alerts” under  forex forum.

The recent drop came from a zone which had proved to be a very strong resistance area from November 4th to December 28th, 2011 and turns the focus downwards again or for another extended sideways move.

On the downside the break of the support at 76.55 is important to expect further downward movement.  A break of that would again bring frequent supports near 76.40, 76.20 and 76.00 because of the upcoming psychological level of 75.00 ranges. Overall on the downside a strong break below 75.80 and some sustained action below 75.80 would make us expect deeper movements

On the upside, if USDJPY breaks over 77.32/77.38, which is little over the upper edge resistance of the daily Ichimoku cloud as well as represents a previous resistance then we will again go neutral for the currency pair and would expect a retest of the resent 78.28 and possibly more upward correction.

This is not for the next week but overall we stay bearish for USDJPY for the longer-term basis at least till a firm break of 85.52 does not take place and this level becomes a support level instead of resistance.

You may also check daily technical usd/jpy analysis and the weekend usdjpy forecast at ForexAbode.com.

AUD/JPY moved the way we had indicated during the last weekend. We had mentioned a move towards 82.80 but the currency pair moved a bit more to 82.85 before finding some resistance there. The resistance took it down to 81.43 before a weekly close at 81.73.

The interesting pint to note is that the resistance came exactly at the previous to previous high of September 1st, 2011. Our outlook stays same for some more upward move but we need to watch for a couple of points. The downward move for past 2 trading days indicate that we cannot ignore some more downward correction. Hence on the downside we need to keep an eye for a break below the recent 81.43 and then 81.40. Such a break should bring some more downward correction towards the range of 80.65/80.60 (22-days EMA) to 80.45 ((daily Ichimoku cloud’s Kijun-sen support level). Here the psychological support of 80.00 will also start working. Only any firm break below this will change our short term focus for some convincing downward move towards 79.20.

As we mentioned that we expect some more upward moves, a break over the recent 82.85 (also Sep 1st, 2011’s resistance level as mentioned above), should bring further gains towards the recent high of 83.95 (October 30th, 2011). This level should bring a strong resistance and a break over that will open the door for a move towards the psychological 85.00 level first and then 86.20.

You may also check daily technical aud/jpy analysis, the weekend audjpy forecast and currency correlation at ForexAbode.com.

EUR/USD broke the resistance mentioned last weekend and quoted above and then moved further up as we had mentioned towards 1.3230. The currency pair went as high as 1.3233 or a few pips below the Fibonacci 38.2% retracement of the downward move from October 27th to the recent bottom of January 15th.

The strong upward correction and the break above the upper edge of the daily Ichimoku cloud indicate that we can expect some more upward correction in the coming days. The development in Europe about the debt crisis do not really add any strong positive outlook for Euro in the mid-term.

On the upside a break over the Fibonacci 38.2% retracement, as mentioned above, i.e. 1.3244 and then 1.3260 is important. A firm break above this zone should take EURUSD towards the resistance zone of 1.3430 to 1.3485 resistance zone. Please note that 1.3434 represents the Fibonacci 50% retracement of the above mentioned move. Not only this but the range of 1.3430 to 1.3550 had proved to be a very strong resistance zone during November 30th to December 9th, 2011. The psychological resistance of 1.3500 would also come into picture at those levels. However a break above this will bring up the possibilities of a test to 1.3620.

Please note that we are considering the recent move as only a correction/consolidation during the overall downtrend and overall we would expect a fall from one of these resistance levels. On the downside the important support levels would be 1.3040 and then 1.2960. A firm break of these support levels and then 1.2930 should take the euro-dollar pair to retest the recent 1.2626/1.2624 bottom. The support levels mentioned are based on 55-day and 22-day EMA as well as the supports of Tenkan and Kijun-Sen of the daily Ichimoku cloud.

You may also check daily technical eur/usd analysis and the weekend eurusd forecast at ForexAbode.com.

Harley-Davidson (NYSE:HOG) reported Q4 EPS of $0.24, beating consensus estimates of $0.22.Revenues in the quarter rose 12% year-over-year to $1.03 billion, topping consensus estimates by $20 million.The company expects FY 2012 gross margin between 34.75% – 35.75%, and FY 2012 capex of $190 million – $210 million.The company added that it sees motorcycle shipments growing between 3% and 5% in FY 2012.

USD/CHF broke the supports mentioned during the last weekends and quoted above and even broke below 0.9200 to touch 0.9114 and to close with strong short-term bearish sentiments at 0.9128.

The strong drop and price action of the last week suggest that we can expect some more downward correction towards the next support level of 0.9064/0.9065. This level represents the support level during the beginning of December 2011 and is also near the Fibonacci 50% retracement of the upward move during October 27th, 2011 to January 8th, 2012.  On the downside a firm break of this and then the psychological level of 0.9000 may take USDCHF towards 0.8950 or the Fibonacci 61.2% retracement level of the above mentioned upward move. Our mid-term outlook will start changing to bearish only with a firm break of this and then 0.8800 support to expect any move towards the low of 0.8567.

On the upside, a break over 0.9340 will again start changing our focus towards upside and this will get confirmed with a firm break over 0.9415 to expect a retest of 0.9596.

You may also check daily technical usd/chf analysis and the weekend usdchf forecast at ForexAbode.com.

DuPont (NYSE:DD) reported Q4 EPS of $0.35, topping consensus estimates by $0.0.02.Revenues in the quarter came in at $8.43 billion, short of consensus estimates of $8.53 billion.The company reaffirmed its 2012 EPS forecast of $4.20 – $4.40, vs. consensus estimates of $4.26.

The Wall Street Journal reported that the troubled Quiznos sandwich chain reached a debt-restructuring deal with lenders that will hand ownership of the chain to Avenue Capital Group. The deal, approved by all Quiznos creditors, keeps the chain, known for toasted subs, out of bankruptcy court. Avenue, the hedge fund run by billionaire Marc Lasry, and former employer of Chelsea Clinton, will invest $150 million in Quiznos as part of the deal, and convert some debt to equity. Avenue will own more than 70% of the chain.

According to the Financial Times, more than two-thirds of hedge funds are below their high-water marks, the point at which they are able to charge investors performance fees, according to Credit Suisse. The main source of income for hedge fund managers is their share of investment profits, typically 20 per cent; but if a fund drops in value, the manager must recoup past profits before charging any more performance fees.

According to Reuters, Diamondback Capital Management will pay more than $9 million to settle allegations of insider trading at the Stamford, Connecticut-based hedge fund. Diamondback will give up $6 million in ill-gotten gains and pay a $3 million penalty, as part of the proposed settlement with the SEC and a non-prosecution agreement with the Justice Department.