Over trading – A sure fire way to blow your account

Forex Overtrading – A sure fire way to blow your account. OVERTRADING-NEW-300x198

We’ve all heard stories (or even had experience) of traders blowing their capital in a short amount of time. This usually happens for one of three reasons: Over trading, over leveraging and improper money management. Just doing one of the three mentioned, can almost certainly guarantee a trip down a short road to failure. For this article we’ll focus on the pitfalls of overtrading and ways in which to eradicate this common problem faced by many traders.

Overtrading is one of the biggest mistakes made by most traders with very few even knowing they’re doing it. It’s not uncommon to find traders telling themselves ‘the more I trade, the more money I’ll make’. Unfortunately this is never the case. Successful traders focus on quality not quantity. There are a variety of reasons why traders fall into the trap of overtrading, below we’ll take a look at the 10 most common.

Feel and ‘urge’ to trade – Many traders often find themselves feeling an unexplainable urge to trade, often feeling they’re missing out if they’re not participating in the market.

In a rush to make money – Every trader trades for the same exact reason; money! However it’s not surprising to find the majority of new inexperienced traders entering the forex market thinking they’ll become ‘millionaires overnight’. Traders in a rush to make money often find their judgment clouded and forcefully ‘look’ for trades that are not there as opposed to trading what the market makes available to them.

Don’t stick to their trading plan – Ever successful trader will have a trading plan that they are disciplined in following. A trading plan is the traders guide and rules they use before entering a trade. Their plan will define the criteria they must follow to be a consistently profitable trader. Some traders don’t have a plan, or if they do, rarely adhere to it. Its common to find traders ‘bending’ their trading rules so they have more opportunities to trade. Some traders even add to their plans with new rules or guidelines on a regular basis allowing them to trade more. They feel they are still sticking to their trading plan, when in reality are distorting it and end up over trading.

Feed their ego – A lot of traders fall into the trap of becoming egotistical and boasting about how much money they’re making or what exotic markets they’re trading in. Some traders like to tell their friends and family about their success which can indirectly lead to over trading as they may find themselves under pressure to feed their egos and attempt to avoid embarrassment.

Over confidence – A trader who has just experienced a string of winning trades can find themselves being sucked into the euphoria of short term success. This in turn boosts their confidence in their ability with the ‘’I’m on a roll, I can’t lose’’ outlook. They then think they’re on a ‘hot streak’ and want to make the most of it so end up taking more trades than they should, which ultimately has a negative affect on their account. Over confidence is a dangerous trap to fall into as the markets have a funny way of brining over confident traders back down to earth with a bang.

Gut instinct or feeling – Over trading can be a result of ‘gut instincts’ or ‘feelings’ about what the market is going to do. Some traders enter trades on a gut instinct or feeling with no market analysis behind their trade. Traders who fall prey to this type of trading usually find themselves taking more trades than they should. Its important for traders to remember that just because they have a ‘feeling’ about what will happen next, does not mean it will. Analyzing the market prior to entering a trade can help eliminate trading on instincts or feelings.

Think they’re missing out if they’re not trading – Although obviously inaccurate, many traders seem to think that because the forex market is open 24 hours a day 5 days a week they must be participating in the market for the duration its open. Some traders find themselves waking up in the middle of the night wanting to trade, because if they don’t, they’re missing out on money. This is the complete opposite of what successful traders do. Successful traders take money from the market when it’s made available to them according to their system/plan; they don’t feel as though they’re missing out on anything when they’re not participating. It’s important to remember that the market is not going anywhere and will be here tomorrow with more opportunities to trade.

Specific goals or targets to meet – In other aspects of life or work many people are recommended to set a specific target or goal to meet. In trading it is wise to set the same sort of targets or goals; however it’s unwise to chase or become obsessed with reaching your target. A trader may set himself a target of making $1000 next week. He may find that on Thursday afternoon he is down -$500. He now thinks he has to make $1500 in the next day in order to reach his set target. He’ll then ‘look’ for trades that are not there or open a large number of trades exposing himself to more risk than he’s used to because he has to reach his target of $1000. He may find himself overtrading on Friday because his obsession with reaching his target is interfering with his trading plan/strategy. When trading its true we’re all trying to make as much money as possible, however it’s essential to remember that although wise to aim for a specific target or goal, not to become obsessed with them and only take what the market makes available.

Addiction and Gambling – A small number of traders (although increasing in recent times) seem to forget that there is a difference between trading and gambling. Gamblers who trade are doing so for the wrong reasons. Traders trade to make money, whereas gamblers trade for the ‘rush’ and excitement felt from risking real money on an unknown outcome. The rush or excitement is increased when more trades are open which leads to overtrading. Some people feel this rush or excitement when opening their trading platform and seeing many open trades in front of them. People can sometimes become addicted to trading. Much like other addictions, a trading addiction can have a detrimental affect on the person addicted. People addicted to trading are again prone to overtrading feeling they ‘need’ to be in a trade in order to ‘feed’ their addiction.

Boredom – This is possibly the worst reason to trade, however some traders actively trade to ‘pass time’ because they are bored. Needless to say that trading out of boredom will lead to taking on extra trades and over trading the markets.

The 10 reasons listed above are the most common reasons traders fall into the trap of overtrading. As mentioned overtrading will have a detrimental affect on consistency and success. Following the guidelines below can help over traders eliminate this bad trading habit.

Make a plan and stick to it – Keeping a trading plan is essential to successful forex trading. Every trader should have a tangible plan next to their work station. Many traders think they have a plan however very few have one in black and white somewhere they can see it when trading. A trading plan is of no use if its ‘stuck in your head somewhere’ as it can be easily forgotten. Following with great discipline of your trading plan is essential to eradicate overtrading. It’s important to remember that your trading plan is your guide and rules to success.

Use Higher Time Frames – The use of higher TF’s will greatly reduce your number of trades, however it can greatly increase your number of winners. Higher TF’s cut out the ‘mess’ seen on lower TF”s. Becoming proficient in a daily timeframe and then moving down to a 4hr and possibly 1hr is much more beneficial than trading a 5minute TF. Although you may have more trades on a 5min chart as opposed to a daily chart we must remember we’re looking for quality not quantity.

No need to look at your charts 24/5 – Although the markets are open 24hrs a day 5 days a week there is no positive affect of staring aimlessly at your charts all day. It’s true the markets move all the time; however it’s also true that you can’t catch every singe move the market makes. Looking at your charts all day often can lead to over analyzing or searching for a trade that is really not there or bending your trading rules because you think you see something that may be a winner. Analyzing the markets really should not take a long time. For example if your system requires you to only trade a 4hr chart then there is no need to look at your chart every five minutes. Analyzing the chart every 4 hours (or an interval in line with your plan/strategy) will keep you from over trading.

Keep it Simple – Over complicating your charts or over analyzing the markets are of no use unless you want to confuse yourself and over trade. Over analyzing is common in over trading traders. Keeping your charts clean and clear of ‘mess’ will allow your to see the only real information you need to trade successfully; the price. Trading using price action allows you to fully analyze the market without running the risk of over analyzing or over trading.

The biggest obstacle most new traders face when trading is themselves. Once a trader can learn to control their emotions and look at the markets with a clear and patient mind mistakes such as overtrading can be cut down on and profitability built on.

Article by  Vantage-FX.com

 

 

Iran Moves to Rescue Rial as Allies Prepare Sanctions

Jan. 5 (Bloomberg) — Iran’s central bank moved to avert a slide in the value of the rial as the U.S. and allies prepared for further sanctions that may include an oil embargo. Lara Setrakian reports from Dubai on Bloomberg Television’s “The Pulse.” (Source: Bloomberg)

Why Choose the Wave Principle?

Robert Prechter reveals why he embraced the Wave Principle.

By Elliott Wave International

Robert Prechter is the widely recognized authority on the Elliott Wave Principle.

Read how he learned about the Wave Principle and why he embraced it in the edited excerpt from his book Prechter’s Perspective below (Q&A format):

——————–

Question: What was it about Elliott that captured your attention?

Robert Prechter: I had seen some mentions of the Wave Principle in a few market newsletters and a couple of obscure books, and I decided that either this was someone’s elaborate fantasy or it was an amazing discovery. I wanted to reject it from what evidence I could find or include it as part of my growing arsenal of technical analytical methods.

Q: How long did it take you to develop your “eye” for discerning these waves?

RP: About 30 minutes — when I plotted my first hourly chart covering a few months. Apparently, there is such a thing as an eye for patterns. One person told me he had trouble finding the fives and threes. The key is to keep a chart. Most people have no trouble seeing the Principle at work.

Q: You accepted it just like that?

RP: When you begin to see the five-wave impulses and the three-wave corrections unfold over and over, it does not take long for you to say either “I see, but I refuse to believe it,” or “This is obviously what’s happening; let’s see how far it continues.” It took about a year and a half of applying it until I knew that Elliott was absolutely right. I’m pretty hard-headed, and it takes substantial reason for me to accept a new idea. By that time, I decided I had seen what amounted to proof. I then said to myself, “This is unbelievable. How come no one is commenting on this? The market is pulling back to points he said it should pull back to in the patterns. It is rising up to levels he said it should, in ways he said it should.”

Q: What was it that convinced you?

RP: The Wave Principle proves itself when you merely keep a chart. Once I did that, I recognized what was going on rather quickly. The wave patterns are repetitive and at times, over protracted periods, they are easily discernible.

——————–

The basic Elliott wave pattern consists of impulsive waves (denoted by numbers) and corrective waves (denoted by letters). An impulsive wave is composed of five subwaves and moves in the same direction as the trend of the next larger size. A corrective wave consists of three subwaves and moves against the trend of the next larger size.

As the chart below shows, these basic patterns link to form five- and three-wave structures of increasingly larger size.

The Elliott Wave Principle helps to identify turning points in the trends of financial markets.

It does not provide certainty, yet the Wave Principle does provide a way to assess the probabilities of possible future paths of a given financial market.

Learn more in the free Elliott Wave Basic Tutorial

The Elliott Wave Basic Tutorial is a 10-lesson comprehensive online course with the same content you’d receive in a formal training class — but you can learn at your own pace and review the material as many times as you like!

Get 10 FREE Lessons on The Elliott Wave Principle that Will Change the Way You Invest Forever

This article was syndicated by Elliott Wave International and was originally published under the headline Why Choose the Wave Principle?. EWI is the world’s largest market forecasting firm. Its staff of full-time analysts led by Chartered Market Technician Robert Prechter provides 24-hour-a-day market analysis to institutional and private investors around the world.

 

 

Safe Haven Status “Returning to Gold” as Euro Sinks After Weak Bond Sales, Banking Stock Slump

London Gold Market Report
from Adrian Ash
BullionVault
Thurs 5 Jan., 08:30 EST

WHOLESALE MARKET prices to buy gold touched a two-week high at $1625 per ounce as London opened for business on Thursday, before pulling back to $1609 as commodities and world stock markets fell, led by Eurozone banking shares.

The 17-nation Euro currency fell to its lowest level in 16 months vs. the US Dollar.

Prices to buy gold and other precious metals had remained “well bid throughout” Asian trade on Thursday said a note from a Hong Kong dealer.

“Jewellers were restocking [and] demand was good in southern India,” says bullion merchant Chanda Venkatesh of CapsGold in Hyderabad, speaking to Reuters and citing a southern Indian festival.

“Jewelry demand for gold is pretty good,” agreed another dealer, but added that the price for gold futures holders to ‘exchange for physical’ (EFPs) fell hard overnight, possibly ahead of bullion sales due to New Year rebalancing in the big commodity-tracking investment indices.

“Gold appears at present to be living up more to its status as a safe haven again,” says a note from Commerzbank, citing “geopolitical risks” in Western sanctions against Iran, plus the ongoing Eurozone debt crisis.

In Iraq today, at least 50 people were killed in a series of bomb attacks, extending the death-toll since US troops pulled out in mid-December, while protests over rising fuel prices in Nigeria, the world’s 10th largest oil producer, were broken up by police.

Base metal and other commodity prices fell hard, but European crude oil contracts pushed higher to $113 per barrel despite the rising US Dollar.

Silver prices fell back 3% from a 3-week high at $29.70 per ounce.

“[Wednesday] saw gold finally beginning to break away from trading in step with risk assets,” said one London dealer this morning.

The correlation between gold prices and the VIX volatility index of daily movement in US equities – positive during most of 2011 – recently fell to its most negative reading in two years, notes Reuters Technical analyst Wang Tao.

“We believe that gold prices will recover in 2012, and we maintain our bullish posture,” says HSBC analyst James Steel, despite cutting his average forecast for this year from $2025 per ounce to $1850 this week.

Eurozone investors looking to buy gold today saw the price touch 3-week highs above €40,000 per kilo as the single currency slumped on the forex market to its lowest level against the Dollar since Sept. 2010 at $1.28.

Priced in British Pounds, gold briefly rose this morning above £1040 per ounce, a 2-week high first breached on the way up in August 2011.

“The UK is attractive to international investors because it is outside the Eurozone,” reckons John Wraith at BofA Merrill Lynch, commenting on the strongest foreign-investment demand for UK government debt on record set in Oct. and Nov.

Continued demand has since driven 10-year gilt yields down to 120-year lows below 2.00%.

But “If [the UK’s] economic conditions deteriorate further,” says Wraith, “that could prompt a sell-off due to stubbornly high deficits.”

After Wednesday’s auction of €5 billion in new German Bunds drew demand of €5.3bn – only just improving on November’s technically failed €6bn auction – a new sale of French government  debt today met 1.6 times enough demand, sharply down from the 3.0 bid-to-cover made by investors last month.

Banking stocks dropped sharply across Europe, led by a 14% plunge in UniCredit as Italy’s largest bank priced a €7.5 billion shares rights issue fully 43% belowWednesday night’s close.

French bank Société Générale said today it is considering 1,580 jobs cuts at its investment banking division. In the same sector, Royal Bank of Scotland – now 83% owned by the British state – is weighing up to 10,000 job cuts, says the Financial Times, after being told by UK chancellor George Osborne to “scale back risky activities.”

The Mediterranean region of Valencia in Spain has meantime delayed repaying a €123 million loan to Deutsche Bank by at least 1 week, says the Wall Street Journal, while the Hungarian Forint today sank to a fresh all-time low against the Euro after Budapest scaled back a planned 12-month debt auction by more than one-fifth in the face of weak demand.

“We are very near boiling point in Hungary,” said SocGen analyst Benoit Anne in a note Wednesday, “with a crisis that may escalate into something much more serious than a simple macroeconomic crisis.”

Hungary must refinance almost €5bn of foreign debt in 2012, and is due to start repaying a 2008 loan from the International Monetary Fund (IMF) in February.

“Thousands of Hungarians have taken to the streets in protest at the country’s new constitution,” reports the BBC, under which the ruling Fidesz Party – now with only an 18% approval rating – has been accused of raising ethnic tensions with neighboring states, favoring itself in future elections, and compromising the central bank’s independence.

Adrian Ash
BullionVault

Gold price chart, no delay   |   Buy gold online at live prices

Adrian Ash is head of research at BullionVault, the secure, low-cost gold and silver market for private investors online, where you can buy gold today vaulted in Zurich on $3 spreads and 0.8% dealing fees.

(c) BullionVault 2012

Please Note: This article is to inform your thinking, not lead it. Only you can decide the best place for your money, and any decision you make will put your money at risk. Information or data included here may have already been overtaken by events – and must be verified elsewhere – should you choose to act on it.

 

 

 

New Global Banking Regulations: Buying Opportunities in Europe

New Global Banking Regulations: Buying Opportunities in Europe

by Jason Jenkins, Investment U Research
Thursday, January 5, 2012

The feeling in the markets is that European companies are selling at a discount. As I wrote a few weeks back, Bloomberg data shows that takeovers in Europe by foreign companies rose nearly 60% in 2011.

Since the sovereign debt crisis reared its ugly head with Greece a few years back, the euro has fallen by about 13% against the dollar. A cheaper European currency makes a more favorable environment for U.S. buyers.

U.S. and Asian companies aren’t looking to acquire European companies to gain access to Europe. However, they want the technology many of these companies possess and access to emerging markets many European companies have established

Well, this environment has created another buying opportunity in the Eurozone. Now businesses and financial firms are entering the market, facilitating loans and buying up assets formerly owned by European banks.

Forcing European Banks to Get Their House in Order

BASEL III is a global regulatory standard on bank capital requirements, stress testing and liquidity. As the name states, this is the third of the Basel Accords – a conference of the world’s central bankers which meet to set global banking regulations.

The package aims to make banks more resilient by forcing them to hold more quality capital against unexpected losses and require banks to hold core Tier 1 capital equal to 7% of their assets adjusted for risk or face restrictions on paying bonuses and dividends.

A new study by The Boston Consulting Group found that European banks will have to raise about $260 billion in new capital or cut their balance sheets by nearly 20% to achieve the tougher new Basel III banking reform rules that start in 2013.

Banks in Europe have a harder way to go than those in the United States and Asia, which each faced a collective shortfall of a little less than $90 billion.

A Fire Sale to Boost Balance Sheets

European banks are desperate to raise capital and shrink their balance sheets, often under orders from regulators. European financial institutions need to get rid of $3 trillion in assets over the next year and a half, according to an estimate from Huw van Steenis, an analyst with Morgan Stanley.

The New York Times recently reported that experts expect these kinds of sales to jump as European banks race to meet the June deadline imposed by the European Banking Authority to raise more than 114 billion euros in fresh capital. Financial institutions also have to increase their Tier 1 capital ratio – the strictest yardstick of a bank’s ability to absorb financial blows – to 9% of assets.

Who Benefits?

Besides buying cheap assets from Europe, analysts predict that firms like JPMorgan Chase (NYSE: JPM), Citigroup (NYSE: C) and Goldman Sachs (NYSE: GS) will capture more trading business on Wall Street as European institutions reduce trading activity.

However, research shows two firms that may highly benefit as potential buyers of European bank assets at distressed levels. Stay tuned as this story unravels…

Good investing,

Jason Jenkins

Article by Investment U

Asia Triple Play for 2012: Income, Quality and Growth

Asia Triple Play for 2012: Income, Quality and Growth

by Carl Delfeld, Investment U Senior Analyst
Thursday, January 5, 2011: Issue #1680

When investors think of Asia, they usually think of growth investing.

When I was making my three-week swings through Tokyo, Hong Kong and Sydney to visit clients, the issue of dividends and income rarely came up at all.

Since then, the region has matured – representing more than a third of world GDP and world stock market value.

Asia is a big deal and is at the sweet spot of dividend yield, growth and quality.

But the challenge of volatility still lurks…

In 2011, India’s index lost a quarter of its value and China was down more than 20%. Only Indonesia and the Philippines managed to break above even this year.

This is why you need to move beyond just chasing growth and pursue a more balanced strategy.

Here are five reasons more balance will pay off for your Asia portfolio:

  • The dividend yield for the Asia-Pacific Stock Index is 50% higher than for the S&P 500 Index.
  • Southeast Asia has already been through its financial crisis in the late 1990s and is financially much stronger.
  • While cooling off a bit from its torrid pace of economic growth in 2010, Asia ex-Japan is still running at growth levels that put America and Europe to shame.
  • Asia local currency bonds now approach $1.3 trillion in value, offering you more opportunities for both income and a hedge on the U.S. dollar.
  • A balanced approach to investing in Asia is also a way to help tame that bad brother of high economic growth – volatility. It also guards against too much exposure to China.

Let’s look at a couple of these a bit more closely.

Dividends are important for two reasons…

  • First, just like in the U.S. stock markets, dividends are an important part of total returns.
  • Second, a company paying a steady and increasing dividend is more likely to be healthy. After all, dividends are paid in cash – not accounting gimmicks. You may have read about the 20 or so U.S.-listed Chinese companies that have run into real trouble – none of them paid dividends.

In 2010, companies in the MSCI Asia-Pacific Index paid out almost as many dividends as those in the S&P 500. And according to Matthews Funds, from 2002 to 2009, Asian companies grew dividends at a compound annual growth rate of 18%, compared to 10% for the S&P 500. Japan, China, Australia, Taiwan and Hong Kong are the biggest dividend payers in the region.

Southeast Asian countries and companies have already weathered a tough financial crisis and have learned lessons the hard way.

High debt, lax banking standards, huge trade deficits and overcapacity all lead to a severe Asia crisis in the late 1990s. Since then, leaders and executives have become more conservative and careful.

The below chart shows how, despite the global slowdown, these countries have managed to keep trade balances in the black.

current account gdp by country

A good place to start a more balanced Asia strategy is with the new Matthews Asia Strategic Income Fund (MAINX).

While it will invest in quality high-yield stocks, it takes advantage of the growth of Asia’s bond markets – one of the region’s most important and remarkable economic developments of the last decade.

Here’s a snapshot highlighting the variety of Asia’s bond markets.

benchmark composition by country chart

Get going in 2012 by putting the Matthews Asia Strategic Income Fund at the core of your Asia strategy.

It will help lower volatility, capture growth, increase income and add some Asian and hard currency exposure to hedge against any declines in the U.S. dollar.

Good Investing,

Carl Delfeld

Article by Investment U