Month: January 2012

Jan. 6 (Bloomberg) — Arnaud Scarpaci, a fund manager at Agilis Gestion SA, discusses the outlook for the European banking industry and the prospect of more quantitative easing in the region. He speaks with Maryam Nemazee from Paris on Bloomberg Television’s “The Pulse.” (Source: Bloomberg)

Jan. 6 (Bloomberg) — Sean Darby, global head of equity strategy at Jefferies Group Inc., talks about the outlook for the euro zone and his investment strategy. He speaks from Hong Kong with Linzie Janis on Bloomberg Television’s “Countdown.” (Source: Bloomberg)

How to Lower Your Energy Bills for Free

by David Fessler, Investment U Senior Analyst
Friday, January 06, 2011

It sounds like one of those suspect ads on television, doesn’t it? If someone told you an easy way to speed up your computer, for free, you’d more than likely take advantage of the offer.

But what if someone offered (at no upfront cost to you) to make your home more energy efficient? You’d probably take them up on that, too.

It turns out the energy efficiency industry does just that. The amazing part is that few homeowners and businesses are taking them up on it.

It’s called on-bill financing. Here’s how it works. You go get the work done to make your home more energy efficient. Your local utility pays for the work…

Sound good so far?

Customers repay the utility for the added insulation, more efficient lighting, new heating system, or other energy saving measures over extended terms on their monthly utility bills.

Your first inclination is to think: “Wait, that means higher utility bills.” But here’s the best part: In most cases, the cost savings more than offset the additional cost that shows up on the bill.

The net effect is that most customers see no net increase in the cost of their monthly utility bills. They end up with a building that uses less energy and haven’t had to shell out a dime.

If this sounds too good to be true, it isn’t. It’s a great deal for the customer, who gets a more energy-efficient house. The utility gets to postpone the building of new power plants, since its energy generation requirements go down.

I’ve often touted energy efficiency as the fastest, cheapest way not only to lower our dependence on foreign oil but to reduce our overall energy bill in the United States.

So Why Aren’t Customers Lining Up?

The American Council for Energy-Efficient Economy (ACEEE) recently published a report on these programs. There are a total of 31 different programs spread across 20 states. Some are so new they’re still in the pilot phase. In its report, the ACEEE profiled 19 on-bill finance programs. You can read the report here.

You would think that with all those programs out there, and with a populous eager to reduce one of the biggest chunks of their monthly budget – energy consumption – they would be lined up in droves.

But less than one percent of the customers eligible to participate in the programs are doing so. According to Casey Bell, lead author of the ACEEE report, it may simply be a lack of knowledge that the programs even exist: “The growth of these programs depends on a number of factors. We are seeing a trend where they are emerging in more states.”

According to ACEEE behavioral scientists, when it comes to energy, people are slow on the uptake concerning new ideas. Even after reading an information booklet from their utility, watching a TV commercial and seeing an advertisement somewhere, they’re still reluctant or slow to respond.

So what does convince them? Talking with a neighbor who did it, a pitch to a social group like a church or other community gathering, or a simple knock on the door by a utility company representative.

Does My Utility Offer Such a Program?

Good question. The report lists the ones that do, and it points out that many others are considering legislation to introduce them. The movement could eventually snowball, once utilities see the payback.

Money is certainly going to be an issue. Some utilities may be reluctant to shell out huge sums of cash, especially if they have a surplus of generation capacity. Third-party capital will likely be attracted to these types of programs, since investors perceive utilities as generally low-risk investments.

Says Bell: “There is a lot of opportunity to learn from experience, and tapping into private sector sources of funding is likely critical for scalability.”

The bottom line: The money equation has to be right, or it won’t get done. On-bill financing is one instance where it seems like a no-brainer.

Give your utility a call and see what they have to offer. You’ve got nothing to lose, except money off your utility bill.

Good investing,

David Fessler

Article by Investment U

Identify This “Tell” and Beat the Stock Market Casino

by David Fessler, Investment U Senior Analyst
Friday, January 06, 2011: Issue #1681

A lot of my friends are comparing the stock markets to a giant casino these days. They tell me “it’s a rigged game.”

They basically have no hope in beating Wall Street and the high-frequency computer traders.

I completely understand how they feel. The markets have been a treacherous place for the average investor. It’s been nothing but a whipsaw ever since last July when Eurozone fears took hold.

But as my colleague Alexander Green has stated countless times, “Investors should tune out all the end-of-the-world hysteria and think rationally.” And one of Alex’s favorite ways to beat the market is to identify “tells.”

The Art of Reading a “Tell”

Those who have played poker understand what a “tell” is. It’s some sort of unconscious behavior that a poker player exhibits which tips other players to the strength of his/her hand.

If you ever watch a professional poker tournament on television you’ll notice many players wearing large sunglasses and hats. (I tried this in a tournament last fall. I lost anyway.) They do this in an attempt to hide any unconscious signals they may be transmitting to the other players.

Well there’s also a type of “tell” that can help investors identify stocks that are about to make significant gains. And that’s by tracking corporate insider stock purchases.

Companies are required to disclose insider purchases by the Securities and Exchange Committee (SEC). As Peter Lynch famously said, “Insiders might sell their shares for any number of reasons, but they buy them for only one: They think the stock price is undervalued and will eventually go up.”

The Proof is in the Pudding

In Hasan Nejat Seyhun’s book Investment Intelligence from Insider Trading, published in 2000, he found that insider trading information is in fact more valuable than several other valuation measures, and can be used to improve investment returns.

However, by the time insider buying at a company becomes public knowledge, shares are often much higher than when the insiders bought them.

With the market’s recent multi-hundred-point moves in both directions, it’s created a few bargains in the shares of insider stocks. Here are a few sitting within a few percentage points of where insiders bought them.

Insider Buying Bargain #1

NYSE Euronext (NYSE: NYX) provides trading technologies around the globe. Its service offerings include equities, options, futures, ETFs, swaps, bonds, clearing operations, market data and carbon trading.

It operates on the NYSE, AMEX and NYSE Arca here in the United States. In Europe, it operates on the NYSE Liffe derivatives market in Lisbon, Amsterdam, Brussels, Paris and London.

Its CEO, Duncan L. Niederauer, and one of its Directors, Duncan M. McFarland, collectively purchased 35,000 shares this past August at prices ranging from $25.50 to $27.38 per share. The stock closed December 30 at $26.10 and currently sports a healthy dividend yield of 4.6%.

Insider Buying Bargain #2

Archer Daniels Midland Company (NYSE: ADM) processes corn, wheat, oilseeds, cocoa and numerous other agricultural commodities. It manufactures corn sweeteners, vegetable oils, flour, biodiesel, protein meal, and other ingredients for animal feed and edible foods.

The company has a vast network of grain elevators and transportation networks to store, clean and transport the commodities it deals in.

Executive VP and COO Juan R. Luciano, along with two other company officers, purchased a total of 9,650 shares back in August of last year, priced between $27.42 and $28.23. Shares of Archer closed on December 30 at $28.60. The company currently yields 2.45%.

Insider Buying Bargain #3

Landline telephone systems are generally very reliable here in the United States and other developed nations. But sometimes Mother Nature has other ideas, and wreaks havoc by bring down trees and wires along with them.

That’s when equipment from Telular Corporation (Nasdaq: WRLS) comes in handy. Telular designs and manufactures equipment that interfaces things like fax machines and other data and services normally sent over land lines.

Remotely located equipment without landline access is also able to be interfaced using Telular’s products and services. Supply chain management, vehicle tracking, security monitoring, and other commercial and industrial applications all make use of Telular equipment.

Business is booming. As evidence, the company raised its guidance and increased its dividend. Robert Deering, company CAO and Controller, must think so, too. He increased his ownership this past December, purchasing 3,175 shares at $7.54.

The company’s shares closed on December 30 at $7.50 a share. Telular currently yields 5.87%, a rather healthy dividend. But this company appears to be going places, so there’s an excellent chance it will continue to generate the cash to pay it.

Insider Buying Bargain #4

Cloud computing is all the rage these days, and there are a lot of big players in the business. Today’s Investment U Plus pick isn’t one of them…

This little company provides eCommerce technology, training, eServices and a host of web-based technologies.

These include search engine optimization (SEO) and search engine management services to entrepreneurs and small, medium and large enterprises.

Its customers are located in the United States and international markets in Canada, the United Kingdom, New Zealand, Australia and Singapore.

This company’s CEO must know something the rest of us don’t. Over the last six weeks, he’s quietly purchased 80,000 shares of his company’s stock. (To find out which company I’m talking about, find out how to upgrade your subscription to Investment U Plus here.)

Should You Buy Them, Too?

I can’t give you personalized investment advice. Ultimately you should weigh the merits (and the business) of each of the companies mentioned, and consult with your investment advisor.

But insider buying is usually a sign that the company executives believe their operation is undervalued. By nature, they’re contrarian investors. Remembering the words of my friend Rick Rule: “You’re either a contrarian, or a victim.”

Good investing,

David Fessler

Article by Investment U

Jan. 6 (Bloomberg) — Hans-Guenter Redeker, head of global currency strategy at Morgan Stanley, talks about the outlook for the dollar and euro in 2012. He speaks with Linzie Janis and Mark Barton on Bloomberg Television’s “Countdown.”

GBP/AUD Daily outlook – 06 January

The sterling weakened against the Aussie on Thursday resulting in the daily candle closing as a bearish pin bar. The market initially pushed higher, however was met with strong resistance at 1.5200 which was unable to be broken. Late trading saw a fall back lower.

The daily pin bar was the 3^rd bar in a bearish Hikkake pattern suggesting further losses could be seen in the coming days.

The strength of the 1.5200 area can be seen in the chart below

We’ll be looking to short this market down to initially 1.50 and depending on price action possibly lower. The market formed an almost perfect double bottom at this level in September & October which suggests we may see a struggle to push through. To make the trade worth while with a good R:R we’ll look to sell on limit at a 50% retracement of Thursdays bar with a stop just above the highs of the day.

Article by vantage-fx.com

Video courtesy of ForexCT – A leading Australian forex broker, liscensed by the Australian Securities & Investments Commission, offers the MetaTrader4 and PROfit Platform to retail traders. Other services include Segregated Accounts, Trading workshops, Tutorials, and Commodities trading.

Source: ForexYard

The euro saw heavy bearish movement throughout the day yesterday despite positive US data which typically helps the currency. Euro-zone debt worries continue to send investors away from riskier assets. Whether today’s US Non-Farm Payrolls can give the euro a boost to close out the week is still unknown.

Economic News

USD – Positive US Jobs Report Turns USD Bullish

The US dollar had a very bullish day yesterday, following a better than expected ADP Non-Farm Payrolls figure and Unemployment Claims report. Gains were made against the euro, British pound and Japanese yen. The EUR/USD fell to an 11-month low, while the USD/JPY shot up past the 77.00 level.

The ADP figure came in at 325K, well above the forecasted 176K. The ADP report is known as an important predictor of today’s Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) figure. The NFP is widely considered the most important global economic indicator, and typically generates heavy market movements.

The NFP will measure the number of non-farm jobs added to US payrolls during the month of December. Analysts are predicting the number to come in at around 152K, which if true, would signal a sizeable increase over November’s figure.

The effect the NFP has on the markets has proven to be difficult to predict. On the one hand, a positive number tends to benefit riskier currencies like the EUR, GBP and AUD. On the other hand, should the figure come in below expectations, investors may decide to shift their funds toward safe-haven assets like the USD and JPY. Traders will also want to remember that the NFP number is very difficult to predict and it is not unheard of for the end result to come in well above or below original forecasts.

EUR – Euro-Zone News Sends EUR Tumbling

The euro extended its bearish trend on Thursday, as the euro-zone debt crisis continues to drive investors away from the currency and toward safer assets like the US dollar and Japanese yen. The EUR/JPY hit a fresh 11-year low while the EUR/USD dropped to its lowest level since December 2010. The bearish movement came in despite positive US jobs data which typically benefit riskier assets like the euro.

Today, traders will want to focus on the all-important US Non-Farm Payrolls figure, set to be released at 13:30 GMT. While a positive figure is expected, traders should not count on it helping the euro close out the week on a positive note. Any further negative news out of the euro-zone will likely cause the euro to drop further, especially against currencies like the greenback and yen.

JPY – Yen Tumbles Against USD Following US Jobs Report

The Japanese yen saw a very mixed trading session on Thursday. Against the euro, the JPY hit an 11-year high, largely due to the on-going string of negative news regarding the euro-zone debt crisis. At the same time, positive US jobs data sent the USD/JPY soaring above the 77.00 level.

Today, the Non-Farm Payrolls figure is likely to cause heavy volatility among yen pairs. A positive figure may cause the JPY to slip against some of the riskier currencies like the aussie or British pound. Should today’s news come in below expectations, traders can expect the safe-haven yen to receive a healthy boost against all of its main currency rivals.

Crude Oil – Crude Oil Sees Small Drop but Remains Bullish Overall

It appears that the price of crude oil peaked yesterday right around the $103.60 a barrel level before dipping in evening trading. That being said, the price of oil is still extremely high and analysts are forecasting the commodity to remain above the $100 level as long as tensions in the Middle East continue.

Today, traders can expect the current oil trend to continue following the recent EU embargo on Iranian crude oil. Furthermore, should the US Non-Farm Payrolls figure come in as predicted, crude oil is likely to see a boost along with other commodities to close out the week.

Technical News

EUR/USD

Technical indicators are showing that the pair may see an upward correction in the near future. The Williams Percent Range on the 8-hour chart has dropped into the oversold zone, while the RSI on the daily chart has dipped below the 30 level. Traders may want to go long in their positions.

GBP/USD

The 8-hour chart’s William Percent Range recently dropped below the -80 level, indicating that possible upward movement could occur. That being said, other technical indicators are inconclusive at the moment. Traders may want to take a wait and see approach for this pair.

USD/JPY

Most technical indicators are showing this pair in the oversold region. The Stochastic Slow on the daily chart has formed a bullish cross while the Relative Strength Index is hovering around the oversold zone. Traders may want to go long in their positions.

USD/CHF

The daily chart’s technical indicators are showing that this pair is in the overbought region and may see a bearish correction. The Williams Percent Range is currently above the -10 level, while the Relative Strength Index is at the 70 level. Traders may want to go short in their positions.

The Wild Card

GBP/CHF

The 8-hour chart’s Stochastic Slow has formed a bearish cross, while the Williams Percent Range on the daily chart is currently right around the -10 level. These are both signs that downward movement could occur in the near future. Forex traders may want to go short before the downward breach takes place.

Forex Market Analysis provided by ForexYard.

© 2006 by FxYard Ltd

Disclaimer: Trading Foreign Exchange carries a high level of risk and may not be suitable for all investors. There is a possibility that you could sustain a loss of all of your investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with Foreign Exchange trading.

The Central Bank of Trinidad & Tobago kept its repo rate unchanged at 3.00%.  The Bank said: “While there are signs that credit demand may be increasing, the basis for a sustained economic recovery is still to be established.”  The Bank also noted “The increase in the headline inflation rate was mainly attributable to higher food prices. Core inflation, which excludes the impact of food prices, has been relatively well contained for most of 2011, indicative of the overall sluggish demand conditions in the economy.”

The Central Bank of Bangladesh increased its repurchase rate by 50 basis points to 7.75% from 7.25% previously; also lifting the reverse repo rate by the same margin to 5.75% from 5.25 percent.  The Bank also moved on Wednesday to repeal interest rate caps on bank loans, which is designed to add a further contractionary impulse to the monetary policy mix. The Bank last raised the repo rate by 50 basis points around mid 2011.  Bangladesh reported inflation of 11.58% in November, and 11.42% in October 2011.  The economy of Bangladesh expanded by 5.83 percent in the year to June 2011.  Bangladesh's currency, the Bangladeshi Taka (BDT), last traded around 82 against the US dollar.