Four Ways to Boost Yields and Returns

By Carla Pasternak, GlobalDividends.com

What’s the secret to building a strong high-yield portfolio? While there is no magic bullet, I do have some rules I follow to create portfolios that pay nearly double-digit yields and see strong capital appreciation.

On average, they’re yielding 7.6%. That’s nearly four times the yield of the S&P 500. Try getting that amount from a money market or savings account.

But that’s not the half of it. In tandem with those high yields, the capital gains have been great too. The average total return for thirty-eight securities is 23.6%. The best performer has gained 131.6%, yet still yields 5.0%.

This isn’t the performance of some secret index or an exclusive hedge-fund’s holdings. It’s what is currently happening within the portfolios of my High-Yield Investing advisory.

What’s the secret to that sort of performance? How can you build a similar portfolio for yourself? Don’t get me wrong — I do an enormous amount of research and watch my holdings and the market like a hawk. But much of the good fortune comes from sticking to a few simple rules that you can use as well.

Over the years, these rules have proven their value in bull and bear markets. The techniques are not complicated. Anyone can follow them and potentially get the same results. So I wanted to share with you, my fellow income investors, the four basic rules I follow to build my winning High-Yield Investing portfolios. I’m confident these tips can work for you as well:

Rule #1: Look for High Yields Off the Beaten Path

To find exceptional returns and yields, I frequently venture off the beaten path. Some of the best yields I’ve found have come from asset classes few investors know about. A case in point is Canadian REITs. These REITs delivered exceptional yields this year (some as high as 12%), but many stateside investors have never heard of them.

Other lesser-known securities I look at are exchange-traded bonds, master limited partnerships and income deposit securities. All of these usually yield more than typical common stocks. In addition, they can also be less volatile and hold up better during market downturns.

If you’re not familiar with these securities don’t fret. I have — and will continue to — cover them within Dividend Opportunities.

Rule #2: Consider Alternatives to Common Stocks

It is a well-known fact that the vast majority of common stocks simply don’t yield much. The S&P 500’s average yield is only 2.0%.

So when I can’t find the income I want from common stocks I like, I look elsewhere. My first stop is often preferred shares of the same company, which almost always yield more. Say you wanted to invest in General Electric (NYSE: GE). The common shares of General Electric (NYSE: GE) currently yield 3.7%, but you can find preferred shares of GE yielding upwards of 6.5%. You still benefit from the underlying company’s backing, but with a much higher yield.

Similarly, many companies offer exchange-traded bonds. While you don’t get actual ownership of the business as you would with common stock, you will earn a much higher yield and have your principal backed by the underlying company.

Rule #3: Look for Securities Trading Below Par Value

Some of my highest returns have come from buying bonds when they trade below par value. Par value is simply the face value assigned to a stock or bond on the date it was issued. Most exchange-traded bonds (which you can buy just like a share of stock) have a par value of $25 per note.

But sometimes — for instance, during a market panic — investors indiscriminately dump these bonds, pushing their prices down. By purchasing the bonds at a discount to par, you lock in great opportunities for capital gains in addition to higher-than-normal yields.

A case in point was Delphi Financial Group 8% Senior Notes (which have since been called). I purchased the notes in July 2009 for $19.27 — a 23% discount to par value. During the 16 months I held, I collected $3.00 per note in interest payments while the shares rose to their $25 par value. In total, the notes returned over 45%.

Rule #4: Sell When It’s Time

This rule may seem the most obvious, but it is also the most difficult to follow.

Like everyone else, I hate to admit I was wrong about an investment. But I find it even harder to watch losses mount as a pick falls further. That’s why I’m not afraid to take a loss. I swallowed my pride and closed out several positions for losses during the last bear market, and I’m glad I did. Continuing to hold these would have greatly reduced returns on my portfolio.

It may sound like a cliche, but knowing when to sell is just as important as knowing when to buy. A wise investor knows when to cut losses and move on to the next opportunity. If the security in question is falling with the market, I may not be worried. However, if changes in the company’s operations mean it could see rocky times ahead, I don’t want a part of it.

[Note: The rules I’ve shared above should help guide you to higher yields and better returns — they’ve certainly done well for my High-Yield Investing subscribers. I hope you can put them to good use in the coming year. And if you’d like to learn more about High-Yield Investing, including how to access my full portfolios, click here.]

Good Investing!


Carla Pasternak’s Dividend Opportunities

Disclosure: Carla Pasternak does not own shares of the securities mentioned in this article.

Weekly Forex Market Outlook (November 7th – 11th)

Fundamental Forex Market Outlook for the Upcoming Week

The key fundamental economic events that can strongly influence the forex market this week feature the U.S., Chinese and Canadian Trade Balances, the Australian Employment Report, and the BOE Rate Decision. Those key economic releases and others due out during this especially busy week are detailed further below, with the current market consensus expectations or the last result included in parenthesis whenever available.

The coming week’s highlights start on Monday with Australian ANZ Job Advertisements (last -2.1%) and UK Halifax HPI (0.1%). Tuesday features the Aussie Trade Balance (3.04B), UK Manufacturing Production (0.2%), Canadian Housing Starts (201K) and a speech by Swiss National Bank Chairman Hildebrand.

On Wednesday, the market will closely monitor Aussie Home Loans (1.7%), Chinese CPI (5.4%), a speech by U.S. Fed Chairman Bernanke and the RBNZ Financial Stability Report.

Thursday’s highlights include the Aussie Employment Change (10.3K) and Unemployment Rate (5.3%) and the tentatively scheduled Chinese Trade Balance (26.3B). Also out Thursday is the featured BOE Rate Decision, including the Official Bank Rate Decision (0.50%), the Asset Purchase Facility (275B) and a tentatively scheduled MPC Rate Statement, as well as the Canadian Trade Balance (-0.5B), the U.S. Trade Balance (-46.1B) and Weekly Initial Jobless Claims (402K).

The end of the week is relatively quiet, with bank holidays in France, Canada and the United States on Friday. Economic data highlights due out include UK PPI Input (0.0%) and the U.S. Preliminary University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment survey (61.1).

Technical Forex Market Outlook for the Upcoming Week

EUR/USD:


Weekly Forecast: Somewhat higher
Resistance: 1.3798, 1.3827, 1.3854, 1.3868, 1.3973, 1.4246, 1.4258, 1.4279, 1.4327,
1.4499/1.4503, 1.4548/74, 1.4695 and 1.4939.
Support: 1.3720/43, 1.3710, 1.3652/97, 1.3607, 1.3565, 1.3520/24, 1.3450, 1.3360,
1.3333, 1.3241/44, 1.3145, 1.3055, 1.3000 and 1.2968.
200-day MA: 1.4103 and rising slightly.
14-day RSI: 48.6 and flat.

USD/JPY:


Weekly Forecast: Somewhat lower
Resistance: 78.66, 79.05, 79.40, 79.52, 80.00, 80.22, 80.82, 81.34, 81.76, 82.01/22,
82.77, 83.09 and 83.77.
Support: 77.25/89, 76.41, 76.10, 75.94, 75.70, 75.65, 75.56, 75.00 and 70.00 likely.
200-day MA: 79.77 and falling.
14-day RSI: 64.1 and flat.

GBP/USD:


Weekly Forecast: Higher
Resistance: 1.6040, 1.6059/62, 1.6130/64, 1.6204/06, 1.6252/59, 1.6332/47, 1.6434/73,
1.6500/98 and 1.6616.
Support: 1.6000, 1.5977, 1.5945, 1.5912/19, 1.5839/89, 1.5630/85, 1.5525/31, 1.5483,
1.5422, 1.5373, 1.5339/55, 1.5326, 1.5293, 1.5270, 1.5123 and 1.5000.
200-day MA: 1.6139 and flat.
14-day RSI: 57.8 and flat.

USD/CHF:


Weekly Forecast: Somewhat lower
Resistance: 0.8873/83, 0.8916/26, 0.8958, 0.8979, 0.9080, 0.9180, 0.9277/0.9339,
0.9368, 0.9774/83, 0.9971, 0.9997, 1.0000 and 1.0065.
Support: 0.8804, 0.8797, 0.8788, 0.8760, 0.8727, 0.8649, 0.8622, 0.8566, 0.8536,
0.8239 and 0.8000.
200-day MA: 0.8717 and falling.
14-day RSI: 51.0 and rising.

AUD/USD:


Weekly Forecast: Somewhat higher
Resistance: 1.0444/98, 1.0608, 1.0654, 1.0718/26, 1.0730, 1.0751, 1.0763, 1.0784,
1.0909, 1.1000, 1.1015, 1.1064 and 1.1079.
Support: 1.0313/70, 1.0229, 1.0201, 1.0116, 1.0100, 1.0012, 1.0000, 0.9983, 0.9925,
0.9863, 0.9732, 0.9689, 0.9667, 0.9651, 0.9620/27, 0.9536/41 and 0.9500.
200-day MA: 1.0413 and rising.
14-day RSI: 53.4 and flat.

USD/CAD:


Weekly Forecast: Somewhat lower
Resistance: 1.0132/42, 1.0210/33, 1.0262/71, 1.0337, 1.0417, 1.0481/90, 1.0500 and
1.0506, 1.0646/56, 1.0669, 1.0742, 1.0756, 1.0785, 1.0853, 1.0868, 1.1000 and 1.1101/
23.
Support: 1.0105, 1.0053, 1.0026/30, 0.9969, 0.9934, 0.9891, 0.9828/77, 0.9763/96,
0.9734/39, 0.9724, 0.9686, 0.9645, 0.9567, 0.9526, 0.9496, 0.9448/56, 0.9422, 0.9405/
09, 0.9056 and 0.9000.
200-day MA: 0.9812 and rising slightly.
14-day RSI: 52.1 and rising.

NZD/USD:


Weekly Forecast: Somewhat higher
Resistance: 0.7955/94, 0.8066/93, 0.8109/90, 0.8240, 0.8269/78, 0.8327/39, 0.8365/86,
0.8423, 0.8469/72, 0.8500, 0.8534/75, 0.8676, 0.8764, 0.8793 and 0.8841.
Support: 0.7881/88, 0.7855/59, 0.7804, 0.7795, 0.7741, 0.7605/72, 0.7549, 0.7523,
0.7504, 0.7500, 0.7453/67, 0.7426, 0.7404, 0.7342, 0.7321, 0.7189, 0.7115, 0.7000 and
0.6945/62.
200-day MA: 0.7988 and rising.
14-day RSI: 48.1 and flat.

 

Currencies: Forex Speculators raise Dollar bullish bets. Yen positions fall after BOJ currency intervention last week

By CountingPips.com

The latest Commitments of Traders (COT) report, released on Friday by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), showed that large futures speculators raised their bullish positions in favor of the US dollar as bets against the Japanese yen increased sharply following the Bank of Japan intervention to weaken the Japanese yen in the Forex market last week. Speculative positions have now totaled an overall bullish dollar bias for an eighth week.

Non-commercial futures traders, usually hedge funds and large speculators, increased their total US dollar long positions to $9.87 billion on October 25th from a total long position of $8.92 billion on October 25th, according to the CFTC COT data and calculations by Reuters which calculates the dollar positions against the euro, British pound, Japanese yen, Australian dollar, Canadian dollar and the Swiss franc.

EuroFX: Currency speculators decreased their short bets for the euro against the U.S. dollar as of November 1st to a total of 60,060 net short contracts from the previous week’s total of 76,512 net short contracts that were reported as of October 25th. The change in euro positions shows that positions have broken out of the close range they were hovering in for about a month ranging between 73,795 short positions on October 11th and the most recent low of 82,697 short positions on October 4th.

The COT report is published every Friday by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) and shows futures positions as of the previous Tuesday. It can be a useful tool for traders to gauge investor sentiment and to look for potential changes in the direction of a currency or commodity. Each currency contract is a quote for that currency directly against the U.S. dollar, where as a net short amount of contracts means that more speculators are betting that currency to fall against the dollar and net long position expect that currency to rise versus the dollar. The graphs overlay the forex spot closing price of each Tuesday when COT trader positions are reported for each corresponding spot currency pair.

GBP: British pound sterling positions have now increased for four consecutive weeks following their six-week decline, according to the data as of November 1st. Pound positions increased to a total of 47,092 net short positions on October 25th following a total of 50,147 short positions as of November 1st. The four-week advancement has brought net short positions from their low point on October 4th of 68,724 to just over 47,000 net short positions last week.

JPY: The Japanese yen net long speculative contracts fell sharply lower last week to the lowest level since July following an increase the previous week. Yen long positions declined by more than half in number to a total of 25,904 net long contracts reported on November 1st following a total of 54,279 net long contracts that were reported on October 25th. The latest data follows the Bank of Japan intervention in the currency markets to weaken the yen against the US dollar and marks the lowest level since July 5th when large speculators net long positions equaled 14,327.

CHF: Swiss franc long positions continued to show little movement by edging lower and staying over on the short side for a third consecutive week. Speculator positions for the Swiss currency futures edged down to a total of 1,746 net short contracts following a total of 1,203 net short contracts as of October 25th. The Swiss currency, a popular safe haven currency, has seen decreased volatility in Forex trading since the Swiss National Bank initiated a policy to peg franc against the euro at the 1.20 level.

CAD: Canadian dollar positions increased higher for a third straight week coming off the lowest bearish level of the year reached on October 11th. CAD net contracts increased to a total of 14,820 short contracts as of November 1st following a total of 17,923 short contracts reported on October 25th. CAD positions reached the lowest level of the year on October 11th when net short positions reached 21,913.


AUD: The Australian dollar long positions increased for the third consecutive week as of November 1st and reached the highest level since September 13th. Australian dollar positions increased to a total net amount of 25,866 long contracts following a total of 23,071 net long contracts reported as of October 25th. The AUD speculative positions have gained four out of the last five weeks after reaching the lowest point of the year on September 27th at 5,167 net long contracts.

NZD: New Zealand dollar futures speculator positions increased for a fourth consecutive week and reached the highest level since September 20th. NZD contracts advanced higher to a total of 10,655 net long contracts as of November 1st following a total of 9,219 net long contracts registered on October 25th.


MXN: Mexican peso contracts edged very slightly higher as of November 1st and off of the lowest level all year registered the week prior. Peso positions edged up to a total of 26,588 net short speculative positions as of November 1st following a total of 27,055 short contracts that were reported on October 25th. Peso contracts have been in a rather tight range for the five consecutive weeks essentially ranging between 25,000 and 27,000 net short contracts.

COT Currency Data Summary as of November 1, 2011
Large Speculators Net Positions vs. the US Dollar

EUR -60060
GBP -47092
JPY +25904
CHF -1746
CAD -14820
AUD +25866
NZD +10655
MXN -26588

 

Prospering with Mutual Funds: How anyone can “Afford” an Investment Advisor

By Ulli G. Niemann

Recently I was invited to appear on a live CNNfn television show to discuss my article “How to evaluate Load vs. No Load Mutual Funds.” (You can read that article on my website http://www.successful-investment.com/articles21.htm)

As the producer and I were working out the logistics of my appearance, she mentioned in passing that “most people can’t afford an investment advisor.”

While that wasn’t the time or place for me to discuss this, I realized that many people might have a similar misconception. Had conditions allowed, I would have pointed out the following to her.

There are only two ways an individual can invest in mutual funds: Selecting and investing themselves or using outside help. If they use outside help they’ll have a couple of choices again: A commissioned salesperson (broker, financial planner or Registered Representative) or a fee-based investment advisor.

Most people don’t know the difference and often start with a broker who charges about 6% commission off the top to purchase a mutual fund. The fund is usually from a limited selection of fund families the broker has a relationship with. He, of course, would never recommend a no load fund or an exchange traded fund (ETF), since it is not in his best interest — although it might be in yours.

Having a fee-based investment professional handling your portfolio will get you as close as possible to receiving advice that is based on nothing but the advisor’s best knowledge and evaluation of the market. They advise only what they consider top performing funds since sales commission is not a consideration and does not create any conflict of interest for them. But, how can you “afford” an advisor?

First off, the advisor’s fee is usually in the range of 1% to 3% per year depending on portfolio size. This amount is billed in advance on a pro-rated quarterly basis and charged directly to your investment account. This creates an initial savings right off the bat.

Most fee-based advisors offer complete service as far as your portfolio is concerned. That means that they don’t simply “sell” you a mutual fund and disappear until you call again. Since investors evaluate advisors based on the performance of their portfolio, advisors are keenly interested in maximizing your bottom line. In the long run, your gain should outweigh their fee.

Many advisors utilize an investment discipline or methodology that keeps you not only invested during upswings in the market, but also in the appropriate funds for the current economic environment. For example, at one time, tech funds were hot. Now, generally, they’re not. An advisor watching market trends could have been able to assist you in avoiding the bursting bubble. (In fact, my clients were advised to pull out of the market and into the safety of money markets in October, 2000, just before the market plummeted. What they didn’t lose because of this will more than cover my fees for the rest of their lives!)

Most advisors don’t have lengthy agreements and you usually can cancel by giving 2 weeks notice. The advisor never has access to your money because he is affiliated with a custodian who handles the money, the monthly statements and fulfills the proper legal reporting requirements.

With this arrangement an advisor can actually save you money. How?

1. The advisor will use only no load funds. Because of his affiliation with a custodian (often a major brokerage firm), he’ll have access to some 10,000 mutual funds, not just to one or two fund families as most commissioned brokers do. This allows him to pick the best available, which potentially means a higher return for his clients.

2. At times there are superior load funds available, especially in the international arena. I have used a couple of those in my own practice because they were available to me as “load waived funds” and my clients got the advantage without paying a sales commission.

3. Custodians many times also offer “Advisor only” funds. These are usually high performing mutual funds where the fund family wishes, for whatever reason, to deal only with investment professionals, so they set high minimum dollar requirements.

Such was the case in my practice during our most recent buy signal (4/29/03). I purchased the NAMCX fund, which was only available to advisors through my custodian. This fund rewarded us with a cool 47% over the following five months. Most independent investors would not have had access to such a fund on their own.

Keep in mind that markets fluctuate and starting with an advisor in the middle of a downturn will not likely yield high profits at first. However, over time, an advisor will most likely produce results better than what you would reasonably expect yourself to do, even with the advisor’s modest fee.

Choosing the right advisor and watching how your portfolio performs with their advice will almost always prove that it doesn’t cost you to have an investment advisor, it pays.

© Ulli G. Niemann


Ulli Niemann is an investment advisor and has been writing about objective, methodical approaches to investing for over 10 years. He eluded the bear market of 2000 and has helped countless people make better investment decisions. To find out more about his approach and his FREE Newsletter, please visit: www.successful-investment.com.

Trade Digital Option Understanding the Important Fundamentals

Digital or binary options trading can prove to be a worthy endeavour for any investor, and it will be not difficult to understand and execute as well. You simply need to be aware of how options are employed so as to embark on trading emphatically. Therefore, following are some tips to take you in the right path.

A digital option is the kind of option trading that can present you only two consequences relying on your forecasts. You can either acquire the profits or drop your investment. This characteristic makes it a cakewalk for all traders because you can effortlessly determine gains and losses while you get involved in trading.

You can opt for digital options with many different underlying assets like stocks and commodities, or options related to foreign exchange markets. This lets you comprehend the level of risk present in your binary options trading and formulate strategies accordingly.

As required in any other financial derivatives, you will seek the help of a broker to trade the digital option, particularly for guidance and various regulations of FX trading. Nevertheless, numerous decisions are taken by you as the investor or trader. For this reason, you must be familiar with how option trading works.

In the first place, select the market you crave to put money into, whether it is the forex, stock, or commodity markets. Afterwards, forecast the movement of the markets that you pick out. You can opt to stake that the stock or currency exchange rate will climb up or down. The subsequent activity is to select the length of time that your forecast must occur. In case of digital options, it can drift possibly from one day to several weeks or months.

When each of these decisions is arrived at, you must get in touch with your brokerage firm, fill in certain forms and sign your contract for binary options trading. On these forms, you will have to mention all the aforesaid particulars, and subsequently, purchase the options you yearn for. The remaining of the process will be handled by your broker, or you could opt to keep an eye on the movements of the options on your own too.

If your forecasting is precise, you will get excellent returns on your investment; otherwise, you go down with your hard earned money. The underlying security that you select to make investment in is what influences the degree of risk you should encounter. Therefore for novices, it is recommended to opt for less speculative investments over more extended time periods.

Article by http://www.binaryoptions.org/binary-options-trading

How to Maximize Your 401k Mutual Fund Returns

By Ulli G. Niemann

When it comes to 401k’s there is an overabundance of sad stories. Here is one that at least has a happy ending-and it’s getting happier all the time.

Last year (in 2002) a friend of mine-let’s call him Jack-phoned and asked if I could help him with his 401k. Jack works for a large company as Senior VP of lending and is financially pretty astute. However, when it came to his 401k mutual fund decisions, he had repeatedly made the same mistake most people were making. As a result, he saw his account drop in value substantially.

At the time we were in the midst of the 2000 bear market, which showed no sign of letting up. Jack had purchased into a Lifestyle fund because someone recommended it. By the time he finally bailed out, it cost him dearly. However, he continued to make the same mistake by reinvesting.

He checked with the 401k representative and subsequently switched to a variety of mutual funds ranging from World Stock to Domestic Hybrids, Large and Small Value as well as Growth. But nothing worked and his portfolio value headed further south.

By the time we met to discuss his 401k Jack was pretty disgusted by the canned advice he had received and the continued losses he was sustaining.

Jack knew that I had pretty much eluded the bear market of 2000 by having sold all of my clients’ positions on 10/13/2000. We were safely in our money market accounts weathering out the storm (see my article “How we eluded the bear in 2000.”

Thinking about this, Jack could only shake his head because at no point in the market slide had he ever been given what I believe was the right advice. That is, no one suggested that, since we were in a bear market, he might want to step aside and remain in the safety of his money market account. So he stayed invested, hoping against the evidence all around him to find something that was not crashing. That was his mistake, and one shared by many.

The advice that he consistently and continually received was that the market was close to a bottom, stocks “have to” move up from these levels, and, my personal money losing favorite, “the market can’t go any lower.” That’s what people wanted to hear and believe. But my tracking system said otherwise, and I followed its indicators-much to the delight of my clients.

Jack wanted to know how I could help. Looking at his mutual fund choices I realized that they were actually pretty decent, and he had a variety of some 13 funds. So, what was the problem and how could we solve it? In a way, the answer was simple. But people were having to get pretty beat up before they would see it.

My first step was, with Jack’s permission, to log on to his 401k web site. Then I started making some adjustments. Since my trend tracking model was still in a Sell mode, I liquidated all of his positions and moved the proceeds into money market. This accomplished one thing right away: He stopped losing money. When you stop moving backward, in relation to everyone else you are moving forward!

Second, as my trend index moved into a Buy mode on April 29, 2003, I researched his funds again. Based on strong momentum figures, I invested in two of his mutual fund choices. The result was very gratifying: the funds I chose moved up around 10% in the two months after my Buy. (Other funds I had tracked and selected for other types of investment programs moved up as much as 26% in that period.)

Jack’s been happy ever since. While the 10% appreciation is not as great as I was able to do with assets outside his 401k, it still confirms that the key to successful investing is methodology and discipline. Our disciplined approach relies on objective information. It disregards Wall Street hype designed to perpetuate commission-rich buy now while it’s low, or buy and hold strategies.

If you have been in a situation similar to Jack’s, or you want to avoid being in one, find an investment advisor who bases his decisions on a measured and objective approach. That will give you the edge no matter whether the market is going up or down and will give you the greatest protection from sad stories with your 401k.

© Ulli G. Niemann


Ulli Niemann is an investment advisor and has been writing about objective, methodical approaches to investing for over 10 years. He eluded the bear market of 2000 and has helped countless people make better investment decisions. To find out more about his approach and his FREE Newsletter, please visit: www.successful-investment.com.

Weekly FX Fundamental Preview – Italy is the Key

Source: ForexYard

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While the Greek drama took perhaps its most interesting turn yet this past week with Greek Prime Minister George Papandreou’s daring call for a referendum, traders should be focusing on the risks from Italy.

Today’s +80K jobs report and the upward revised September numbers may leave markets heading into next week on a positive note. However, this evening’s Greek confidence vote still has the opportunity to torpedo any constructive sentiment.

Next week’s economic calendar is light on the important data releases. As such, traders will be turning their attention towards events in Europe. While the Greek saga looks to continue, the situation in Italy remains the key. Italian 10-year bonds are currently yielding 6.20% and the spread between the equivalent German bund is now up to 450 bp. The Italian fiscal situation is unstable and the political situation looks to be on even shakier ground. Coalition partners are abandoning Italian Prime Minister Silvio Berlusconi which is ability to push through financial reforms.

All of this comes on the back of a 25 bp rate cut by the ECB and Mario Draghi’s comments that Europe is entering a “mild recession”. None of the above political and macro-economic factors are thought to be EUR positive.

Read more forex trading news on our forex blog.

Forex Market Analysis provided by ForexYard.

© 2006 by FxYard Ltd

Disclaimer: Trading Foreign Exchange carries a high level of risk and may not be suitable for all investors. There is a possibility that you could sustain a loss of all of your investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with Foreign Exchange trading.

Monetary Policy Week in Review – 5 Nov 2011

The past week in monetary policy saw 8 interest rate changes announced among the 12 central banks that met to review policy settings.  Of those changing interest rates, those that increased rates were: Uganda +300bps to 23.00%, Kenya +550bps to 16.50%, and Iceland +25bps to 4.75%.  Meanwhile those that cut rates were: Australia -25bps to 4.50%, Fiji -100bps to 0.50%, Europe -25bps to 1.25%, Romania -25bps to 6.00%, and Denmark -35bps to 1.20%.  Those that held rates unchanged were: Trinidad & Tobago 3.00%, USA 0-0.25%, Hong Kong 0.50%, and the Czech Republic 0.75%.

Monetary Policy Week in Review


Some of the main themes apparent in the past week included the ongoing uncertainty surrounding the European debt crisis, along with further signs that Europe is largely headed for a period of recession; as reflected in the interest rate cuts by the ECB and other Europe based central banks.  The poor global growth outlook also spurred internationally focused economies like Australia to cut rates to be on the safe-side.  Meanwhile there were still pockets of tightening going on, driven by economy specific inflation pressures, particularly in emerging and frontier markets.
Some of the key quotes from the central bankers that met last week are included below:

  • US Federal Reserve (Kept policy settings unchanged): “To support a stronger economic recovery and to help ensure that inflation, over time, is at levels consistent with the dual mandate, the Committee decided today to continue its program to extend the average maturity of its holdings of securities as announced in September. The Committee is maintaining its existing policies of reinvesting principal payments from its holdings of agency debt and agency mortgage-backed securities in agency mortgage-backed securities and of rolling over maturing Treasury securities at auction.”
  • European Central Bank (Cut rates -25bps to 1.25%): “Owing to their unfavourable effects on financing conditions and confidence, the ongoing tensions in financial markets are likely to dampen the pace of economic growth in the euro area in the second half of this year and beyond. The economic outlook continues to be subject to particularly high uncertainty and intensified downside risks. Some of these risks have been materialising, which makes a significant downward revision to forecasts and projections for average real GDP growth in 2012 very likely. In such an environment, price, cost and wage pressures in the euro area should also moderate; today’s decision takes this into account.”
  • Reserve Bank of Australia (Cut rate -25bps to 4.50%): “Over the past year, the Board has maintained a mildly restrictive stance of monetary policy, in view of its concerns about inflation. With overall growth moderate, inflation now likely to be close to target and confidence subdued outside the resources sector, the Board concluded that a more neutral stance of monetary policy would now be consistent with achieving sustainable growth and 2–3 per cent inflation over time.”
  • Reserve Bank of Fiji (Cut rate -100bps to 0.50%): “The weaker outlook on global and domestic growth warrants such a move, particularly at this juncture where foreign reserves levels are comfortable and the outlook is stable, while inflation is expected to moderate over the coming months,”
  • Central Bank of Iceland (Increased rate +25bps to 4.75%): “Recent data and the Central Bank forecast published today in the Monetary Bulletin confirm that Iceland’s economic recovery continues, despite weakening global growth and increased uncertainty. Output is expected to grow slightly faster in 2011 and 2012 than was forecast in August, and inflation is projected to be somewhat lower in coming quarters as a result of a stronger króna and lower imported inflation.”
  • Central Bank of Kenya (Increased rate +550bps to 16.50%): “Inflation continued to rise while exchange rate volatility persisted in October 2011. Consistent with the monetary policy stance taken by the last MPC meeting, there is therefore a need for further tightening of monetary policy to tame these inflationary pressures and stabilize the exchange rate.”
  • Bank of Uganda (Increased rate +300bps to 23.00%): “The Bank of Uganda expects that inflation will peak in the coming months and will then decline during 2012, with core inflation reaching single digit levels at about the end of that year. Core inflation is projected to fall further to the Bank of Uganda’s policy target of 5 percent in the medium term. However, should upside risks to inflation increase, monetary policy will need to be tightened further.”

Looking at the central bank calendar, next week several emerging market central banks will be announcing policy decisions; which will provide some insight into how resilient their economies are proving as downside risks to the global growth outlook come to fore. The Bank of England is also scheduled to meet, but consensus says no change to its asset purchase program or interest rate. Elsewhere, the European Central Bank releases its monthly bulletin on Thursday, and the Chicago Fed will be hosting its 14th Annual International Banking Conference.

  • PLN – Poland (National Bank of Poland) expected to hold at 4.50% on the 9th of Nov
  • IDR – Indonesia (Bank Indonesia) expected to hold at 6.50% on the 10th of Nov
  • GBP – UK (Bank of England) expected to hold at 0.50% on the 10th of Nov
  • ZAR – South Africa (South African Reserve Bank) expected to hold at 5.50% on the 10th of Nov
  • KRW – South Korea (Bank of Korea) expected to hold at 3.25% on the 11th of Nov
  • MYR – Malaysia (Bank Negara Malaysia) expected to hold at 3.00% on the 11th of Nov