Technical Forex Market Outlook
USD/CHF:
Weekly Forecast: Somewhat higher
Resistance: 0.9080, 0.9149, 0.9180, 0.9277/0.9339, 0.9368, 0.9774/83, 0.9971, 0.9997, 1.0000 and 1.0065.
Support: 0.8979, 0.8951/58, 0.8916/26, 0.8873/83, 0.8804, 0.8797, 0.8788, 0.8760/68, 0.8727, 0.8649, 0.8622, 0.8566, 0.8536, 0.8239 and 0.8000.
200-day MA: 0.8707 and falling.
14-day RSI: 50.1 and rising.
Technical Forex Market Outlook
GBP/USD:
Weekly Forecast: Somewhat lower
Resistance: 1.6092, 1.6130/65, 1.6206, 1.6259, 1.6332/47, 1.6434/73, 1.6500/98 and 1.6616.
Support: 1.6000, 1.5977, 1.5945, 1.5912/19, 1.5868/90, 1.5630/85, 1.5525/31, 1.5483, 1.5422, 1.5373, 1.5339/55, 1.5326, 1.5293, 1.5270, 1.5123 and 1.5000.
200-day MA: 1.6137 and flat.
14-day RSI: 56.5 and flat.
Technical Forex Market Outlook
USD/JPY:
Weekly Forecast: Somewhat lower
Resistance: 78.66, 79.05, 79.40, 79.52, 79.96, 80.00, 80.22, 80.82, 81.34, 81.76, 82.01/22, 82.77, 83.09 and 83.77.
Support: 77.25/89, 76.41, 76.10, 75.94, 75.70, 75.65, 75.56, 75.00 and 70.00 likely.
200-day MA: 79.73 and falling.
14-day RSI: 47.8 and falling.
Technical Forex Market Outlook
EUR/USD:
Weekly Forecast: Lower
Resistance: 1.3795/98, 1.3813/27, 1.3854/58, 1.3868, 1.3973, 1.4246, 1.4258, 1.4279, 1.4327, 1.4499/1.4503, 1.4548/74, 1.4695 and 1.4939.
Support: 1.3720/43, 1.3710, 1.3652/97, 1.3607, 1.3565, 1.3549, 1.3520/24, 1.3483, 1.3450, 1.3360, 1.3333, 1.3241/44, 1.3145, 1.3055, 1.3000 and 1.2968.
200-day MA: 1.4103 and flat.
14-day RSI: 49.3 and rising.
The good news is that on 8 November the International Energy Agency released its 2011 “World Energy Outlook.”
While it will cheer nuclear advocates, overall the report makes for grim reading.
Pulling no punches, the report states at the outset, “There are few signs that the urgently needed change in direction in global energy trends is underway.”
Stripped of its cautious language, the IEA report essentially noted that should present trends continue, the world’s governments through a lack of progressive initiative embracing alternative energy sources would continue to rely on ‘tried and true” fossil fuels, resulting in increased pollution, more fossil-fuel dependency and increasingly upward energy prices.
For environmentalists, this is all good news, but the report contained a caveat virtually anathema to all green movements, that accordingly, governments should reconsider their reluctance to embrace nuclear power, as it does not generate greenhouse gases.
Like many discussions in Western economies since 2008, when the global recession first began to draw blood, the issue of reliable energy production ultimately devolves down to dollars and cents issues.
The grim reality for environmentalists is that no single renewable energy resource, from wind power to solar energy through biofuels, has remotely become competitive with kilowatt hours of electrical energy generated by coal or oil-fired power plants. The debate pits those opposed to a transition to greener technologies to those considering the bottom line, despite greenhouse gas emissions.
Even worse for the environmentalists, the IEA report advocates that as a short-term solution, governments ought to reconsider nuclear power, as it produces zero CO2 emissions. Projecting into the future the report notes, “A low-nuclear future would also boost demand for fossil fuels: the increase in global coal demand is equal to twice the level of Australia’s current steam coal exports and the rise in gas demand is equivalent to two-thirds of Russia’s current natural gas exports. The net result would be to put additional upward pressure on energy prices, raise additional concerns about energy security and make it harder and more expensive to combat climate change. The consequences would be particularly severe for those countries with limited indigenous energy resources which have been planning to rely relatively heavily on nuclear power”
But while sketching out a bleak scenario should governments remain largely disengaged to the larger issues involved in energy production, the IEA report nevertheless ends on a cautiously optimistic note, with its authors concluding, “International concern about the issue of energy access is growing. The United Nations has declared 2012 to be the ‘International Year of Sustainable Energy for All’ and the Rio+20 Summit represents an important opportunity for action. More finance, from many sources and in many forms, is needed to provide modern energy for all, with solutions matched to the particular challenges, risks and returns of each category of project. Private sector investment needs to grow the most, but this will not happen unless national governments adopt strong governance and regulatory frameworks and invest in capacity building. The public sector, including donors, needs to use its tools to leverage greater private sector investment where the commercial case would otherwise be marginal. Universal access by 2030 would increase global demand for fossil fuels and related CO2 emissions by less than 1%, a trivial amount in relation to the contribution made to human development and welfare.”
Accordingly, what is most notable about the IEA report is two things.
First, energy options beyond dependence on traditional fossil fuels such as coal and oil not only exist, but are available in significant amounts to make a serious contribution.
Secondly, as Germany’s experience in weaning itself off nuclear energy is showing, the alternatives are more expensive than current power production modes.
According to the IEA’s scenarios then, the issue of global power production over the next two-three decades devolves upon two major issues.
The first is cost, which will undoubtedly be an uphill struggle for many governments seeking to meet the population’s rising energy demands, who will be loathe to endure increasing energy bills.
The second consideration is the contentious issue of global warming, and the impact of traditional fossil fuel-fired power plants belching vast amounts of CO2 into the atmosphere.
While even the most diehard proponents of traditional power plant electrical generation to not deny that their facilities emit significant amounts of carbon dioxide, they denigrate the concerns of environmentalists as ‘fuzzy science.”
So, at the end of the day, the two fundamental issues facing the world’s nations seeking to satiate their population’s demand for reliable and inexpensive power devolve down to cost and scientific projections. We’ll leave the final word to the IEA, which laid out three scenarios, ranging from best- to worst-case – “The wide difference in outcomes between these three scenarios underlines the critical role of governments to define the objectives and implement the policies necessary to shape our energy future.” Accordingly, the major question is whether global governments will have both the cash and political will “to shape our energy future” to the best possible ends
By. John C.K. Daly of http://oilprice.com
You may have seen a TV ad where “traders” describe their strategies, and one says, “I trade on fundamentals.” That sounds very reassuring — except that, on any given day, “fundamentals” are a mixed bag:
And so on. Which “fundamental” factor trumps the other? Which one carries more weight in your forecast? Your guess is as good (or bad) as anybody’s.
Your alternative is technical analysis, which forecasts the markets’ short- and long-term moves based on objective metrics, not guesses.
Here at EWI, we’ve always strived to help our readers learn to think for themselves. So we’ve put together for you a free 8-lesson report, “Best Technical Indicators for Successful Trading” that teaches you how to use these technical tools:
Here’s a small preview of this free 8-lesson report.
Trendlines
A trendline represents the psychology of the market; specifically, the psychology between the bulls and the bears. If the trendline slopes upward, the bulls are in control. If the trendline slopes downward, the bears are in control.
Moreover, the actual angle or slope of a trendline can determine whether or not the market is extremely optimistic, as it was in the upwards sloping line in Figure 1-1 or extremely pessimistic, as it was in the downwards sloping line in the same figure.
Now we’re on to the fun part — drawing trendlines. You can do this several different ways…
 Finish Reading This 8-Lesson Report Today, FREEIn this free report, you will learn some of the most effective tools of the trade from analysts at Elliott Wave International, the world’s largest technical analysis firm. Find out which technical indicators are best for analyzing chart patterns, which are best for anticipating price action, even which are best for spotting high-confidence trade setups — plus how they all complement Elliott wave analysis. |
This article was syndicated by Elliott Wave International and was originally published under the headline What Are the BEST Technical Indicators for Successful Trading?. EWI is the world’s largest market forecasting firm. Its staff of full-time analysts led by Chartered Market Technician Robert Prechter provides 24-hour-a-day market analysis to institutional and private investors around the world.
Investors are ringing in the new trading week amdist volatility in the markets due to ongoing concerns about the turmoil in Europe. Good morning, this is the Week Ahead Market Report for Monday November 14, 2011..
Goldman Sachs (GS) updated its forecasts on a variety of commodities prices today, as uncertainty continues to swirl around Europe. Despite new leadership for the troubled economies of both Italy and Greece, the debt situation in the Eurozone far from resolved.
Nov. 14 (Bloomberg) — Mariana Mazzucato, an economics professor at the University of Sussex, and Uwe Walz, director at the Center for Financial Studies, discuss the European sovereign-debt crisis and the challenges facing new goverments in Italy and Greece. They speak with Owen Thomas on Bloomberg Television’s “Countdown.” (Source: Bloomberg)
Nov. 14 (Bloomberg) — Mark Blyth, professor of international political economy at Brown University, talks about the leadership change in Italy and the outlook for the European sovereign-debt crisis. Blyth speaks with Sara Eisen on Bloomberg Television’s “InsideTrack.” (Source: Bloomberg)
