Nov. 22 (Bloomberg) — Rajesh Agrawal, founder, chief executive officer and chairman of RationalFX Ltd., discusses plans to expand in Europe. He speaks with Owen Thomas on Bloomberg Television’s “Countdown.”
Gold Hits 4-Week Low, Sovereign Debt Worries “Could Spur Gold Rally”, but “Much Deeper Correction” Possible if Gold Falls Further
London Gold Market Report
from Ben Traynor
BullionVault
Tuesday 22 November, 08:30 EST
U.S. DOLLAR prices to buy gold climbed to $1699 an ounce Tuesday morning London time – though still 1.5% down for the week so far – following yesterday’s sharp drop which saw gold fall to a four-week low of $1668.
Sovereign debt concerns meantime continued to make headlines in both Europe and the US, as Spain saw its borrowing costs rise further and US politicians lamented the deficit super committee’s collapse.
“[The] $1667.74 [level] underpins [gold] at present,” says Commerzbank technical analyst Axel Rudolph.
“While trading above it on a daily closing basis, the medium term trend in the gold price remains bullish…failure here [though] will most likely be the beginning of a much deeper correction.”
Silver meantime climbed to $32.03 per ounce – 1.1% off last week’s close – while stocks and commodities also edged higher, following selloffs on Monday that saw the Dow lose over 2%.
Gold has now given up its gains for November – with prices to buy gold currently below where they started the month.
On the currency markets, the Dollar lost some ground against the Euro – though it remains 2.3% up against the troubled single currency since the start of November.
“Rising near-term uncertainty should be positive for gold,” says a note from UBS today.
“Particularly if it hurts the US Dollar, though it is not clear whether the US debt issue will manage to distract investors from their fixation on Europe.”
Spain paid an average yield of 5.11% earlier today when it auctioned three months Treasury bills – twice what it paid last month.
“Lower prices and higher yields are scaring investors rather than attracting new demand,” says Gianluca Salford, fixed income strategist at JPMorgan Chase in London.
Spain paid an average yield of 6.97% last Thursday when it sold €3.56 billion of 10-Year government bonds. Quoted 10-Year yields, however, fell that day (though they have subsequently risen, hitting 6.6% this morning).
The Financial Times explains that Spain asked data providers Bloomberg and Thomson Reuters to disregard the new bond when quoting their 10-Year benchmark yields and reference an older issue instead.
Monday evening brought confirmation that the US congressional ‘super committee’ has failed to reach an agreement on how to cut the country’s deficit by $1.2 trillion over 10 years – with President Obama blaming Republicans’ refusal to consider tax increases.
“They simply will not budge from that negotiating position,” Obama said.
“So far that refusal has been the main stumbling block that has prevented Congress from reaching an agreement to further reduce the deficit.”
“It is really discouraging,” says former White House budget director Alice Rivlin – who has previously said Congress should be looking for $4 trillion in deficit cuts.
“They could not agree even on the smaller challenge of $1.2 trillion…I do not see a way to get to the big deal before the [presidential] election [next year].”
Despite the talks’ collapse, all three major ratings agencies reaffirmed their respective sovereign credit ratings for the US. Moody’s, however, maintains a negative outlook, while Fitch – which said in August that super committee failure would likely lead to “negative rating action” – is due to complete a review of its US rating by the end of the month.
“[The] super committee’s budget impasse still has potential to spur a gold rally,” said a note from HSBC this morning.
“Emerging market and central bank buyers may take advantage of further drops [to buy gold] as they did in September.”
Here in the UK, public sector net borrowing fell to £3.4 billion in October – down from £11.4 billion the previous month – data published this morning show. Despite the fall, however, forecasts due to be published next week by the Office for Budget Responsibility will suggest the government is behind schedule on its deficit-cutting targets, the FT reports.
China – the world’s second-largest source of private gold demand – could post its first trade deficit for two decades in 2012, according to Xia Bin, an academic adviser to the People’s Bank of China, the country’s central bank.
“The US economy won’t be good next year and Europe will be worse, meaning weak external demand for China,” Xia told news agency Reuters on Monday.
Xia has repeatedly called for the PBOC to buy gold with its foreign exchange reserves.
In India meantime, a working paper from the central bank, the Reserve Bank of India, last month suggested that India too should look to again buy gold for its official reserves – and add to the 200 tonnes it bought from the International Monetary Fund in 2009.
The volume of gold held by gold-backed exchange traded products meantime – which include the major gold ETFs – hit an all-time high of 2339.97 tonnes last Friday, according to data compiled by news agency Bloomberg.
Gold value calculator | Buy gold online at live prices
Editor of Gold News, the analysis and investment research site from world-leading gold ownership service BullionVault, Ben Traynor was formerly editor of the Fleet Street Letter, the UK’s longest-running investment letter. A Cambridge economics graduate, he is a professional writer and editor with a specialist interest in monetary economics.
(c) BullionVault 2011
Please Note: This article is to inform your thinking, not lead it. Only you can decide the best place for your money, and any decision you make will put your money at risk. Information or data included here may have already been overtaken by events – and must be verified elsewhere – should you choose to act on it.
Forex CT 22-11-11 Video News Update
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No Surprises in US Super Committee Failure
The congressional super committee that was assigned to solve the roadblock the government faced over the summer did not help to improve market sentiment. However, according to US bond yields and the recent performance of the USD the pressure is off the US right now as investors remain focused on events in Europe.
Economic News
USD – USD Remains Supported Despite Super Committee Failure
The USD and US government bonds continue to be supported despite the most recent government failure to address the bloated US deficit. A lack of an agreement to increase taxes or decrease government entitlements such as social security and Medicare continue to elude Congress. This will likely push the big decisions further into the future after next year’s Presidential election.
While Washington continues to drag their feet to make the tough decisions the USD and US bonds continue to outperform. The USD index has climbed within 100 pips of its October high while the US-10 year is yielding just under 2% as investors seek out safe haven assets. Despite all the faults of the USD (high debt to GDP ratio and potential QE3) investors are still supporting the USD and will likely continue to do so until a resolution to the European debt crisis is found.
EUR – Euro Bonds the Answer to Debt Solution
Spreads between German government bond yields and almost all of the euro zone nations are beginning to widen. This hints at increased in tensions due to the European debt crisis. With the German/French 10-year yield differential rising over 200 bp this signals an escalation of the debt crisis from the peripheral nations (Greece, Spain, Portugal, and Italy) to the core nations (France). Moody’s note to investors yesterday warned of a potential negative rating outlook for France given the elevated borrowing costs and expected economic slowdown in the French economy.
One potential solution being pushed to solve the European debt crisis is euro bonds. The EU will unveil three proposals for Eurobonds on Wednesday. Any European issued bond would likely come with additional EU integration with regulatory powers to inspect budget finances and penalize nations that break EU budget rules. As the European debt crisis enters its second year fiscal union may be the only way to save the euro zone in its current form.
With both Merkel and Sarkozy publicly discussing the possibility of a nation leaving the euro zone it is no surprise the 17-nation currency continues to come under pressure. The late September low of 1.3360 is the first support level for the EUR/USD while a break here could open the door to the October low of 1.3145. Resistance is found at Monday’s high of 1.3610. The mid-November high of 1.3860 should contain any near-term rallies.
JPY – Japan Posts Trade Deficit but JPY still Stronger
Japan posted a larger than expected trade deficit which is the 7th consecutive month the nation has registered a deficit. A sharp 3.7% y/y drop in exports was noted while consensus forecasts were for a decline of only 0.4%. The catalyst for the weak export numbers may be a strong JPY but lower global demand could also have weighed on the macro data.
The USD/JPY continues to hold above both last week’s low of as well as the initial support of 76.80 and Friday’s low of 76.55. After here there is a lack of support on the daily chart until the all-time low while resistance is back at 77.50 from last Tuesday’s high. The EUR/JPY is also moving lower as real money funds shed exposure to the EUR and may be parking funds in Japanese government bonds as a safe haven. The swing low of 100.75 stands out as support on the daily chart with resistance of 106.50 from the mid-November high.
Gold – Correlation between Gold and Equities on the Rise
During the second half of the year the correlation between gold and equities has climbed. According to Scott Barber with Reuters the correlation between gold prices and the MSCI AC World Index has risen to 0.5, indicating the two instruments trade in the same direction. A negative correlation would indicate the two assets move in opposite directions.
One explanation for this change in performance may be a need for increased capital. Leveraged equity investors who were also long on gold may have had to liquidate profitable gold positions to maintain other losing stock investments when equity prices went south in mid-July.
Traders may be able to use the correlation to their advantage as gold prices would likely rise with equities in the risk on environment while falling in a risk off scenario. Given the dire situation in Europe, the latter seems more likely to prevail. Support for spot gold is found at the November low of $1,681 with resistance at the November 10th low of $1,735.
Technical News
EUR/USD
There is a bullish wedge pattern that has formed on the EUR/USD daily chart. The falling resistance line is off of the October high and the support line falls off the November 1st low. Resistance is found at 1.3615. A break here and the EUR/USD could test the November highs near 1.3850. Should the pair continue its trend lower the pair could encounter support at the rising trend line from the January 2010 and October 2011 lows at 1.3270. Traders may be eyeing the October low of 1.3145 followed by a deeper move to the 2011 low of 1.2875.
GBP/USD
After breaking lower from the late October-mid November consolidation pattern the GBP/USD rose back to the previous support line at 1.5850 only to turn lower once again. This is a textbook retracement to a previously known support that has now turned into resistance. Support may be found at the October 18th low of 1.5630 followed by the October low of 1.5270. Resistance comes in at the top of the previous consolidation pattern at 1.6075.
USD/JPY
The slow decline of the USD/JPY back to its all-time low at 79.60 continues while the charts show very little support to prevent the move. Any attempt to bid the pair higher may encounter selling pressure at the November 15th high of 77.50 followed by the long term downtrend from the June 2007 high which comes in at 79.10.
USD/CHF
The rally from the late October low continues to gain steam as the pair approaches the October high of 0.9310. Both weekly and monthly stochastics continue to move higher. A break of 0.9310 will expose the 20-month moving average at 0.9450 followed by the February high of 0.9770. Support is off of the November 3rd low of 0.8760 which coincides with the 100-day moving average. While perhaps a bit extreme the pair may eventually target the falling trend line off of the 2003, 2008, and 2010 highs which comes in at 1.1200.
The Wild Card
S&P 500
A breakout to the downside was confirmed from the triangle consolidation pattern on the daily chart. The chart pattern measures 45 points. Forex traders should note this would roughly take the index to 1,177 which is the 50% Fibonacci retracement of the October move.
Forex Market Analysis provided by ForexYard.
© 2006 by FxYard Ltd
Disclaimer: Trading Foreign Exchange carries a high level of risk and may not be suitable for all investors. There is a possibility that you could sustain a loss of all of your investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with Foreign Exchange trading.
Fed Meeting Minutes to Show Dovish Policy Stance
Source: ForexYard
Today’s economic calendar will be highlighted by the release of the FOMC meeting minutes which are likely to show the Fed stands ready to act should inflation expectations continue to decline.
Investors remain firmly focused on events in Europe though the release of the meeting minutes from the past FOMC meeting could draw some attention from the markets. The Fed will likely address the improved US economic data but also keep the door open to additional monetary policy easing should the Fed see the need. With the doves firmly in control of the Fed and stagnant US unemployment, we continue to expect the Fed to initiate QE3.
The USD continues to move higher this morning versus the majors with the lone exception being the EUR/USD which has support at the base of the recent consolidation at 1.3430 and resistance at the October 18th high of 1.3555. Cable is trading near yesterday’s low of 1.5610 and a break here could open the door to the September low of 1.5325.
Read more forex trading news on our forex blog.
Forex Market Analysis provided by ForexYard.
© 2006 by FxYard Ltd
Disclaimer: Trading Foreign Exchange carries a high level of risk and may not be suitable for all investors. There is a possibility that you could sustain a loss of all of your investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with Foreign Exchange trading.
China’s Bubble Will ‘Pop’ in 2012
By MoneyMorning.com.au
Australia’s commodity market relies heavily on Chinese purchases. In fact, commodities make up 57% of our total exports. And for the first time, Australia’s ‘two-way’ trade with China topped $100 billion.
So why aren’t we more concerned that the media coverage on China’s bubble has died down in the past few weeks?
Problems with an asset bubble in China will affect your investments in Australia.
The first sector to be hardest hit? The mining sector. Which for now, is the most productive industry in Oz. But that could change.
Yet the Aussie consensus seems to be: don’t worry… the Chinese government will wangle a soft landing. Chinese leaders have more influence their economy than Western leaders do. But anyone who thinks the Chinese can change what will take place is wrong.
China’s Asset Bubble
A work mate sent me this article on China’s fixed asset bubble. You’ll find the meaty bits below (emphasis mine), showing you just how big the China bubble is:
By some measures, China’s physical capital base already looks like that of a major developed economy. Consider the installed capacity of China’s steel industry. Now roughly 5 times the size of what it was a decade ago, capacity is nearly twice that of the United States, Japan, and the European Union combined. Notably, the latter collection of economies has nearly 1 billion people of its own and collective GDP of about $36.6 trillion, making it more than 6 times the size of China’s economy.
The biggest contributor to China’s fixed-asset investment boom, particularly in the past few years, has been residential real estate. Throughout the 2000s, China built housing at a blistering pace, adding a cumulative 120 square feet in residential floor space per person. This is understandable, given the significant additions China made to its urban population over the period. What is less understandable is the roughly 80% surge in the rate of floor space additions we’ve seen in the past few years, which has not been accompanied by a comparable surge in urbanization. On a per capita basis, China now has nearly 5 times the amount of residential floor space under construction as the U.S. in its peak housing boom. This is particularly remarkable since, despite enormous gains in wealth and income, Chinese remain on average much poorer than their American counterparts and tend to occupy residences that are much smaller.
By any measure of fixed-asset investment intensity–growth rates, share of cumulative GDP growth, or share of GDP–China has far surpassed the precedents set by Japan, Korea, and Taiwan. We estimate that, relative to the starting size of the economy, cumulative additions to Chinese capital stock in its boom decade have been 43% greater than Japan’s, 33% greater than Korea’s, and 49% greater than Taiwan’s.
If you like, you can read the whole thing here.
China’s Credit Bubble
The thing is, China’s credit bubble is peaking. China’s economy has grown 171% since 2000. But continuing on this growth is simply unsustainable.
And this will be as plain as day in 2012, when China’s central planners lose control of their economy.
I think there’s too much trust that China can manage the credit boom for a few more months.
That’s the nature of bubbles. First, you deny the problem. But at some point – my best guess is the first half of 2012 – you come to accept it.
But by then it will be too late to prepare.
Australia’s resources industry is incredibly dependent on China’s growth.
As China’s growth is about to start pulling back, it will dampen Chinese demand for our resources.
Take the time to revaluate your exposure to the mining sector in preparation for China’s asset bubble.
Greg Canavan
Editor, Sound Money. Sound Investments
Publisher’s note: Greg Canavan is the foremost authority for retail investors on value investing in Australia. He’s the former head of Australasian Research for a major asset-management group and a regular guest on CNBC, Sky Business’s ‘The Perrett Report’ and Lateline Business. Greg shares his insight, ideas and investment recommendations with readers of his Sound Money. Sound Investments newsletter… to find out more information on Greg’s letter, go here.
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Good Stocks in Bad Times
By MoneyMorning.com.au
Let’s be honest, in today’s world economy anything could happen. But put simply, the current state of global debt means a debt default of a major European economy, would most likely send stock prices crashing.
In that case, the last thing you’d want to own would be stocks. You’d be an “Outie” – out of the market. But…
The other “solution” is more of the same. Where central banks and retail banks get away with increasing the money and credit supply… and individuals and businesses regain the appetite for debt.
In that case, stocks may not crash. They may go up – just as they did in the good old days. In that case you’d want to be an “Innie” – in the market.
Of course, you should remember, the main reason for the 1980s, 1990s and 2000s bull markets was the credit boom.
And the reason why it’s harder – but not impossible – to invest now is because we’re going through the fallout from those three booms.
That’s why we believe there’s a third possibility. That is, an actual debt default won’t happen. Instead, European bureaucrats will come up with more crazy plans to just about keep their zombie economies afloat.
It’s now three years since the global economy collapsed in 2008. The government intervention was supposed to lead to a speedy recovery… the alternative would have been unacceptable. That was the story anyway.
But odds are, as we go through the fourth, fifth, sixth and tenth anniversary of the Great Economic Collapse, things won’t be much different to today.
Stocks will go up… then down… then up… and so on
A Tale of Two Portfolios
That’s what makes it hard for most investors. You’d be mad to invest in stocks… but equally as mad not to invest in stocks.
This brings us back to our long-term market advice. You’ve got to actively manage your wealth. As we’ve said before, that doesn’t mean diversifying. Instead it means concentrating.
Weighting your portfolio towards investments where you shouldn’t lose any money (after all, capital preservation is the number one rule to investing). You can call that your “risk free” or “limited risk” portfolio if you like.
But then you need to complement this with risk bets… small cap stocks, leveraged blue-chip trading… anything where you can get more bang for your buck. Heck, even a weekly lottery ticket should be part of this!
The key to the risk bets is to make sure you don’t over-expose yourself…
…Which is the beauty of small cap stocks. You can get leveraged returns without taking out a loan. And, unlike other forms of leverage, you know your maximum loss if things don’t go right.
In short, the secret to making anything out of this market is to have two portfolios – something for safety and something for a bit of excitement.
Cheers.
Kris.
P.S. I don’t know if you’ve seen the email. But right now you have a limited-time chance to look over all my latest small-cap stock tips for FREE… for 30 days. If you’d like to know more, click here…
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Ready Get Set… for a Global Debt Default
By MoneyMorning.com.au
Are You an “Innie” or an “Outie”?
“It’s starting to crack”, said our in-house technical analyst, Murray Dawes this morning.
He was referring to the Aussie stock market.
Late yesterday afternoon he told his Slipstream Traders to take part profit in one of his short-sell trades. Of course, it would have been nicer to still have the full position on. But that’s what risk management is all about. Especially in a world moving towards global debt default.
You’re never going to buy right at the bottom and sell right at the top.
This morning the market has opened lower… and the other half of Murray’s short position has gone further into profit.
So, with the market going all over the place, how should you play it? We’ll get to that in a moment. First, just why are the markets behaving this way…
Global Debt Means More Downgrades are on the Way
Well, it’s no wonder when you see news items like this from Agence France-Presse:
“An increase in French government borrowing costs, slowing growth and the Eurozone debt crisis threatens the country’s top credit rating, Moody’s ratings agency has warned.”
Two weeks ago we reported how ratings agency Standard & Poor’s (S&P) had “mistakenly” issued a ratings downgrade for France.
At the time we wrote:
“Our guess is it was supposed to be an internal alert for S&P analysts. And that somehow – whether it was a fat finger or some other error – S&P released the internal alert to subscribers.”
Of course, it could still have been a “fat finger or some other error”. But we doubt it.
That’s the problem with a highly leveraged and inter-connected global debt market. There’s no sanctuary. Unless an economy is fully self-sufficient there will always be cross-border equity and debt deals. And that means problems flowing from one country to another…
Greece borrows from Italy… Italy borrows from France… France borrows from Germany… and even Germany borrows from someone – the French, Italians and Greeks probably!
And don’t forget China.
China Next in the Global Debt Bubble?
Today the Financial Times reports:
“In October, however, property transactions fell 39 per cent year-on-year in China’s 15 biggest cities, according to government data. Nationwide, transactions dropped 11.6 per cent, accelerating from a 7 per cent fall in September.”
Don’t forget how China has financed much of its construction. By selling bonds against land so local governments can build high-rise towers, sports stadiums and roads.
But if property transactions are falling off a cliff, who in their right mind will buy a bond against over-valued Chinese land? Especially as prices will drop as demand falls. (More on Chinese debt from Greg Canavan below).
The fact is the global debt problem can only end in one of two ways…
By debt default. Or by continuing the current practice of going further into debt (and hoping nobody notices).
That creates a big problem for investors.
Why?
Because both “solutions” could result in different market behaviour…
Cheers.
Kris.
P.S. I don’t know if you’ve seen the email. But right now you have a limited-time chance to look over all my latest small-cap stock tips for FREE… for 30 days. If you’d like to know more, click here…
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Russia Ups Ante with Caspian Neighbors by Moving Offshore
On 16 November in Astrakhan Lukoil president, Vagit Alekperov told journalists that his company will spend over $16 billion over the next decade to develop the country’s Caspian offshore Korchagin and Filanovskii oil and natural gas fields in the Caspian, at the signing of a cooperation agreement with the Astrakhan Region.
An equitable division of the Caspian’s offshore resources have bedeviled the region since the December 1991 implosion of the USSR, putting the Soviet Union’s previous cozy arrangements with the Shah’s Iran “into the dustbin of history,” to quote Leon Trotsky.
Before the collapse of the USSR, the Soviet Union and Iran effectively divided the inland sea amongst themselves, according to the terms of the 1940 Soviet-Iranian treaty, which replaced the 1921 Treaty of Friendship between the two countries, which awarded each signatory an “exclusive right of fishing in its coastal waters up to a limit of 10 nautical miles.” The treaty further declared that the “parties hold the Caspian to belong to Iran and to the Soviet Union.”
Since 1991 three new nations have arisen in the Caspian basin to contest this bilateral arrangement – Azerbaijan, Turkmenistan and Kazakhstan. For the past two decades the five nations have wrangled about how to divide the Caspian offshore waters, and little has been achieved.
Amidst the disagreements Azerbaijan, Turkmenistan and Kazakhstan have tentatively moved cautiously to develop their offshore reserves in sectors that they believe would be indisputably within their future assignations under an eventual five-state agreement.
Even within these cautious offshore margins, Azerbaijan and Kazakhstan have increased their output in the last 15 years by 70 percent.
But at issue are the diametrically opposed positions of Iran and the Russian Federation about how to develop an international Caspian consensus beyond the now moribund 1921 and 1940 treaties. Iran insists that all Caspian nations should receive an equitable 20 percent of the Caspian, while the Russia Federation has consistently maintained that the five Caspian riverine nations should receive their portion based on the length of their coastline. Under the Russian formula, Iran’s sector would consist of 12 percent to 14 percent of the Caspian’s waters and seabed.
The stakes are high – in 2009 the U.S. government’s Energy Information Administration estimated that the Caspian could contain as much as 250 billion barrels of recoverable oil along with an additional 200 billion barrels of potential reserves, in addition to up to 9.2 trillion cubic meters of recoverable natural gas.
Accordingly, all five Caspian nations have been delicately developing their offshore Caspian reserves in areas that will undoubtedly remain theirs whatever eventual agreement is hammered out between Azerbaijan, Iran, Kazakhstan, the Russian Federation and Turkmenistan. The Russian Federation and Iran are the last two nations to move “offshore.”
Alekperov said, “Five hundred billion rubles ($16 billion) will be invested in development. This huge amount will provide an opportunity for sustainable development in the region.”
Astrakhan Region Governor Aleksandr Zhilkin waxed lyrical on the importance of the agreement for the long-term development of Astrakhan’s shipbuilding industry, situated on the lower Volga, the Russian Federation’s major river emptying into the Caspian. Zhilkin commented, “All shipyards in Astrakhan Region will have work for the next ten years. Vagit Yusufovich (Alekperov) mentioned that Lukoil is investing more than 500 billion rubles ($16 billion) over the decade.
Zhilkin’s remarks to reporters are hardly an idle boast, as he stated that Lukoil had paid more than $16.1 million in taxes last year to Astrakhan’s regional budget.
So, the Russian Federation, like its four Caspian neighbors, is now beginning to tiptoe into its offshore waters, all the while insisting that its vision of divvying the inland sea prevails.
The last two decades have seen an apparent pragmatism slowly evolve over the Caspian offshore resources, first in Baku, followed by Astana, Ashgabat and more recently and reluctantly, Tehran and Moscow. While the issue of a final disposition of the Caspian’s offshore waters remains significant if for no other reason than the various proposed undersea pipelines such as Turkmenistan-Baku, which could be an influential element in the European Union’s projected $15 billion Nabucco natural gas pipeline reverie, all five nations seem to be moving cautiously towards planting their offshore flags in areas unlikely to arouse their neighbors.
It will be interesting to see if they meet in the middle.
Source: http://oilprice.com/Geo-
By. John C. K. Daly of http://oilprice.com
USDCHF moved sideways in a range
USDCHF moved sideways in a range between 0.9085 and 0.9234 for several days. The price action in the range is likely consolidation of uptrend from 0.8569, one more rise towards 0.9314 previous high is still possible after consolidation. Initial support remains at the lower border of the price channel on 4-hour chart, as long as the channel support holds, uptrend could be expected to resume. Key support is now at 0.9085, only break below this level could indicate that the rise from 0.8569 is complete, then the following downward move could bring price back to 0.8000 area.
