By MoneyMorning.com.au
Who’s Worse: Weather Forecasters or Economic Forecasters…?
The night prior to the Daily Reckoning Doomers’ Ball a more [ahem] sober event took place in Sydney. It was the Australian Business Economists Annual Dinner. Keynote speaker was Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) governor, Glenn Stevens.
Surprisingly, Mr. Stevens made one good point during his snooze-fest.
He said:
“One is that the most useful economic forecasts, like weather forecasts, are those that are based on a good sense of the ‘big forces’, as well as on an understanding of the dynamics of how economies typically behave.”
It’s worth noting his speech compared two maligned groups of forecasters – economists and weathermen.
It’s funny someone from a central bank should say that. Seeing as central bankers spend their whole time manipulating economies.
Look no further than the RBA Committed Liquidity Facility (CLF) – another acronym to add to TALF, TARP, EFSF and many, many more.
Put simply, CLF is a joint-venture idea between the Reserve Bank of Australia and the Australian Prudential Regulatory Authority (APRA).
Under Basel III rules, banks need to carry more high-quality liquid assets on their books. Following the 2008 global economic meltdown central bankers thought banks should hold more government debt. Because that’s safer.
The only trouble was… governments had just bailed out the banks. That increased their own liabilities and weakened weak bank balance sheets.
So now European banks have to hold lots of government debt which are impaired by the poor financial position of governments because they bailed out banks which forced them to go further into debt which led to the downgrade of their debt ratings which…
You get the point.
And on our shores the RBA seems to think its system of using residential mortgage back securities (RMBS) is somehow safer.
Cheers.
Kris.
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From the Archives…
The Onward March of the State
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2011-11-10 – Kris Sayce
Neither a Borrower Nor a Seller Be…
2011-11-09 – Kris Sayce
Roman or Zimbabwean
2011-11-08 – Kris Sayce
Lighting a Match to Inflation
2011-11-07 – Kris Sayce
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