Fundamental Forex Market Outlook for the Upcoming Week
The key fundamental economic events that can strongly influence the forex market this week feature the U.S., Chinese and Canadian Trade Balances, the Australian Employment Report, and the BOE Rate Decision. Those key economic releases and others due out during this especially busy week are detailed further below, with the current market consensus expectations or the last result included in parenthesis whenever available.
The coming week’s highlights start on Monday with Australian ANZ Job Advertisements (last -2.1%) and UK Halifax HPI (0.1%). Tuesday features the Aussie Trade Balance
On Wednesday, the market will closely monitor Aussie Home Loans (1.7%), Chinese CPI (5.4%), a speech by U.S. Fed Chairman Bernanke and the RBNZ Financial Stability Report.
Thursday’s highlights include the Aussie Employment Change (10.3K) and Unemployment Rate (5.3%) and the tentatively scheduled Chinese Trade Balance (26.3B). Also out Thursday is the featured BOE Rate Decision, including the Official Bank Rate Decision (0.50%), the Asset Purchase Facility (275B) and a tentatively scheduled MPC Rate Statement, as well as the Canadian Trade Balance (-0.5B), the U.S. Trade Balance (-46.1B) and Weekly Initial Jobless Claims (402K).
The end of the week is relatively quiet, with bank holidays in France, Canada and the United States on Friday. Economic data highlights due out include UK PPI Input (0.0%) and the U.S. Preliminary University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment survey (61.1).
Technical Forex Market Outlook for the Upcoming Week
EUR/USD:
Weekly Forecast: Somewhat higher
Resistance: 1.3798, 1.3827, 1.3854, 1.3868, 1.3973, 1.4246, 1.4258, 1.4279, 1.4327,
1.4499/1.4503, 1.4548/74, 1.4695 and 1.4939.
Support: 1.3720/43, 1.3710, 1.3652/97, 1.3607, 1.3565, 1.3520/24, 1.3450, 1.3360,
1.3333, 1.3241/44, 1.3145, 1.3055, 1.3000 and 1.2968.
200-day MA: 1.4103 and rising slightly.
14-day RSI: 48.6 and flat.
USD/JPY:
Weekly Forecast: Somewhat lower
Resistance: 78.66, 79.05, 79.40, 79.52, 80.00, 80.22, 80.82, 81.34, 81.76, 82.01/22,
82.77, 83.09 and 83.77.
Support: 77.25/89, 76.41, 76.10, 75.94, 75.70, 75.65, 75.56, 75.00 and 70.00 likely.
200-day MA: 79.77 and falling.
14-day RSI: 64.1 and flat.
GBP/USD:
Weekly Forecast: Higher
Resistance: 1.6040, 1.6059/62, 1.6130/64, 1.6204/06, 1.6252/59, 1.6332/47, 1.6434/73,
1.6500/98 and 1.6616.
Support: 1.6000, 1.5977, 1.5945, 1.5912/19, 1.5839/89, 1.5630/85, 1.5525/31, 1.5483,
1.5422, 1.5373, 1.5339/55, 1.5326, 1.5293, 1.5270, 1.5123 and 1.5000.
200-day MA: 1.6139 and flat.
14-day RSI: 57.8 and flat.
USD/CHF:
Weekly Forecast: Somewhat lower
Resistance: 0.8873/83, 0.8916/26, 0.8958, 0.8979, 0.9080, 0.9180, 0.9277/0.9339,
0.9368, 0.9774/83, 0.9971, 0.9997, 1.0000 and 1.0065.
Support: 0.8804, 0.8797, 0.8788, 0.8760, 0.8727, 0.8649, 0.8622, 0.8566, 0.8536,
0.8239 and 0.8000.
200-day MA: 0.8717 and falling.
14-day RSI: 51.0 and rising.
AUD/USD:
Weekly Forecast: Somewhat higher
Resistance: 1.0444/98, 1.0608, 1.0654, 1.0718/26, 1.0730, 1.0751, 1.0763, 1.0784,
1.0909, 1.1000, 1.1015, 1.1064 and 1.1079.
Support: 1.0313/70, 1.0229, 1.0201, 1.0116, 1.0100, 1.0012, 1.0000, 0.9983, 0.9925,
0.9863, 0.9732, 0.9689, 0.9667, 0.9651, 0.9620/27, 0.9536/41 and 0.9500.
200-day MA: 1.0413 and rising.
14-day RSI: 53.4 and flat.
USD/CAD:
Weekly Forecast: Somewhat lower
Resistance: 1.0132/42, 1.0210/33, 1.0262/71, 1.0337, 1.0417, 1.0481/90, 1.0500 and
1.0506, 1.0646/56, 1.0669, 1.0742, 1.0756, 1.0785, 1.0853, 1.0868, 1.1000 and 1.1101/
23.
Support: 1.0105, 1.0053, 1.0026/30, 0.9969, 0.9934, 0.9891, 0.9828/77, 0.9763/96,
0.9734/39, 0.9724, 0.9686, 0.9645, 0.9567, 0.9526, 0.9496, 0.9448/56, 0.9422, 0.9405/
09, 0.9056 and 0.9000.
200-day MA: 0.9812 and rising slightly.
14-day RSI: 52.1 and rising.
NZD/USD:
Weekly Forecast: Somewhat higher
Resistance: 0.7955/94, 0.8066/93, 0.8109/90, 0.8240, 0.8269/78, 0.8327/39, 0.8365/86,
0.8423, 0.8469/72, 0.8500, 0.8534/75, 0.8676, 0.8764, 0.8793 and 0.8841.
Support: 0.7881/88, 0.7855/59, 0.7804, 0.7795, 0.7741, 0.7605/72, 0.7549, 0.7523,
0.7504, 0.7500, 0.7453/67, 0.7426, 0.7404, 0.7342, 0.7321, 0.7189, 0.7115, 0.7000 and
0.6945/62.
200-day MA: 0.7988 and rising.
14-day RSI: 48.1 and flat.
