Source: ForexYard
While the Greek drama took perhaps its most interesting turn yet this past week with Greek Prime Minister George Papandreou’s daring call for a referendum, traders should be focusing on the risks from Italy.
Today’s +80K jobs report and the upward revised September numbers may leave markets heading into next week on a positive note. However, this evening’s Greek confidence vote still has the opportunity to torpedo any constructive sentiment.
Next week’s economic calendar is light on the important data releases. As such, traders will be turning their attention towards events in Europe. While the Greek saga looks to continue, the situation in Italy remains the key. Italian 10-year bonds are currently yielding 6.20% and the spread between the equivalent German bund is now up to 450 bp. The Italian fiscal situation is unstable and the political situation looks to be on even shakier ground. Coalition partners are abandoning Italian Prime Minister Silvio Berlusconi which is ability to push through financial reforms.
All of this comes on the back of a 25 bp rate cut by the ECB and Mario Draghi’s comments that Europe is entering a “mild recession”. None of the above political and macro-economic factors are thought to be EUR positive.
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