Month: October 2011

This morning, UBS lowered its price target on shares of Halliburton (HAL) to $56 as margins in North America could narrow. In the report, UBS maintained its buy rating, but lowered its earnings estimates.

By James Woolley

Lots of people who trade forex will try out many different trading systems in order to find one that is consistently profitable. They will play around with many different indicators and become increasingly frustrated if they still have no joy. However there are three basic things that you can do that may well help you generate more profits from your trading.

The first thing you can do is to forget about the idea of becoming a day trader. So many people are drawn to this fast and furious style of trading, but as many experienced trader will tell you, this is one of the hardest ways to make money.

When you have spreads of up to 5 points and somewhat random price movements at times, it is not easy to call which way the markets are going to go. You also have economic data releases to deal with, which can move the markets in an instant and render all your technical analysis to be a waste of time.

You are better off lengthening your time frames and trading the 1 hour, 4 hour or daily charts instead of the 1 and 5 minute charts, for example. These time frames are a lot easier to trade because technical indicators are more reliable due to less noise, and you can still make a lot of money because the price moves can be very big.

Another thing you can do is to start managing your trades better. In other words you want to be cutting your losing trades early and letting your winning trades run for as long as possible. So for example if your stop loss is 40 points, then you would want to be targeting 100+ points in an ideal world.

The benefit of doing this is that you can still make decent profits without necessarily having a really high success rate. Some of the best traders around never let their losing trades accumulate. They simply take losses early, safe in the knowledge that they will still make money in the long run because their winning trades are a lot bigger.

The third and final thing you can do is to interact with other currency traders every day. You will probably already know that it is possible to spend hours and hours each day staring at your screen, waiting for the next set-up and not really doing much.

So you might as well make use of all this free time to chat with other traders on chat rooms and forums. That way you can pick up some useful trading tips and strategies and hopefully help develop your own winning systems, particularly if you take some time to identify some of the best traders on these forums, and therefore the ones worth listening to.

The point is that trying to carve out a successful career for yourself as a forex trader is not easy. You need to work at it constantly, and even if you do develop a winning system, you can still end up losing money if market conditions change. However if you follow some of the tips mentioned in this article, you will certainly increase your chances of success.

About the Author

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Bank of America (BAC) was the latest of the major financial firms to report third quarter earnings today, swinging to a profit in the quarter. The company said profits totaled $6.2 billion, or $0.56 per share, compared to a loss of $7.3 billion, or $0.77 per share, in last year’s third quarter.

A key measure of price inflation for wholesale goods rose in September for the biggest increase in the data since the spring. The US producer price index rose a seasonally adjusted 0.8%, according to a Labor Department report today.

IBM (IBM) shares are trading lower Tuesday following its third quarter earnings report late yesterday. The company said profits totaled $3.84 billion, or $3.19 per share, compared to $3.59 billion, or $1.82 per share, in last year’s third quarter.

Energy M&A: The Natural Gas Bulls Are Back in Town

by Justin Dove, Investment U Research
Tuesday, October 18, 2011

Kinder Morgan’s (NYSE: KMP) $33-billion takeover of El Paso Corp. (NYSE: EP) is just one of a flurry of recent mergers and acquisitions in the energy sector.

Statoil (NYSE: STO) also took over Brigham Exploration (Nasdaq: BEXP) on Monday, and Sinopec (NYSE: SHI) acquired Daylight Energy (OTC: DAYYF.PK) last week.

Dealogic recently released data showing that energy and utility deals account for nearly a third of the dollar value for all worldwide merger and acquisition transactions thus far in the fourth quarter.

This likely means one thing: Companies with a bunch of capital think smaller natural gas companies are attractively cheap right now.

Energy Stock Volatility Continues

The market is extremely volatile due to fears of world economic crisis. Those fears are especially hard on the energy sector, as a global recession would crush oil and natural gas demand.

The Vanguard Energy ETF (AMEX: VDE) still hasn’t recovered from its sharp drop in August, and is still suffering losses greater than those of the S&P 500. But natural gas stocks have been doing even worse than the broad energy sector. The United States Natural Gas Fund (AMEX: UNG) fell just as far as the Vanguard Energy ETF, but hasn’t rebounded quite as quickly.

Energy Industry Insider Buying Increases

As Peter Lynch famously wrote, “Insiders might sell their shares for any number of reasons, but they buy them for only one: They think the stock price is undervalued and will eventually go up.”

And according to Canada’s Insider News and Knowledge (INK) energy indicator, which measures insider sentiment in the sector, insider sentiment in the energy industry is at its highest levels since following the 2008 recession.

Below are a few natural gas stocks that recently had increases in insider buying:

• Encana Corp. (NYSE: ECA) – Encana had a rough month despite many reasons for investors to be excited about the stock. The stock is currently around $20 per share after being in the $30s for most of the 2011. It has pipeline projects in western Canada and the southern United States. It also has a hand in a joint venture that recently got approved by Canada’s National Energy Board to export from a deepwater port in British Columbia. This could be huge, as it would open up the company to the natural gas-hungry Asian markets. There were even takeover rumors swirling about Encana recently. And according to Ted Dixon at INK, five insiders bought a combined 60,000 shares at an average price of $24.13 in the past three months.

• Apache Corp. (NYSE: APA) – Apache is another company, along with EOG Resources (NYSE: EOG), involved with Encana in the British Columbian port venture. Its shares were recently hammered to nearly half of the 52-week high of $134.14 and are currently trading around $90 a share. A Director and the Executive Vice President both recently engaged in large insider purchases of the stock.

• Sandridge Energy (NYSE: SD) – Sandridge is another company trading at almost half of its 52-week high. It isn’t profitable yet, but part of that’s because of large capital expenditures over the past few years, which exceeded its cash flow. But insiders seem to be very optimistic that these expenditures will pay off soon. In October alone, 10 insiders made stock purchases. The company is relatively small and risky with a market cap under $3 billion and a beta more than double the overall market, but one has to wonder what these insiders are so excited about.

A Recent Flurry of Natural Gas M&A

No one has a crystal ball to see where the market will be in the future. However, large companies such as Kinder Morgan, Statoil and Sinopec hire the best and brightest to make strategic decisions such as timing mergers and acquisitions.

The recent flurry of natural gas acquisitions could be a good sign for the sector going forward. Add in the increase in insider buying and signs seem to be pointing toward a sector in need of a serious rebound.

With a recent surge in bull mentality by large companies and insiders alike, maybe it’s time for investors to put on their natural gas bull masks, too.

Good investing,

Justin Dove

Article by Investment U

By The Sizemore Letter

Well, so much for a quick fix.  German Finance Minister Wolfgang Schaeuble ruled out a “definitive solution” to the ongoing Eurozone sovereign debt crisis at the coming weekend summit, prompting a sharp selloff in global stock markets.  And adding an additional wet blanket to the fire of hope, the head of France’s central bank said that the European Central Bank’s bond-buying program would not be expanded.  The ECB’s bond buying program had previously been one of the few coherent policy decisions coming out of Europe and a critical part of the effort to avoid crisis contagion spreading to Spain and Italy.  So much for that.

Nero: The man was 1,947 years ahead of his time.

Like Nero two millennia ago, it appears that Europe’s modern-day Caesars are content to fiddle while Rome—and every other European capital—burns.    And until these little Neros stop acting like pandering politicians and start acting like real leaders, the capital markets promise to be volatile.

Still, despite the muddle coming out of European capitals, something resembling a consensus is starting to take form.  Greece is insolvent and will default (see “Three Greek Stocks to Consider After the Default”).  The focus has shifted from propping up Greece to managing the fallout on Europe’s banks after the inevitable default happens.  If done correctly and in such a way that inspires market confidence, the damage will be contained.  If done poorly and without adequate resources…well, say hello again to a post-Lehman 2008 meltdown.

All of their recent actions (and inactions) notwithstanding, I do not believe that Europe’s leaders are stupid enough to allow a disorderly meltdown.  But until there is a definitive solution—what British Prime Minister David Cameron has called a “big bazooka”—expect the markets to be volatile, both to the upside and downside.

Hang in there, dear investor.  Volatility is not something investors should automatically run from.  If you play your cards right, you can do quite well during times of volatility.  Investing legend Warrant Buffett made some of his most profitable investments in decades during the 2008 meltdown, and plenty of other value investors did quite well.  During a bear market or panic, good stocks go on sale.  And when they do, you have to trust your analysis, ignore your emotions and the panicked noise around you, and buy with both fists.

European stocks are trading near their lowest valuations in decades, and there are fantastic long-term buys to be found today.  Spanish stocks trade at just 7.5 times earnings, and German stocks for less than 10.  By comparison, at 13 times earnings, U.S. stocks would seem downright expensive.

Investors should use any sharp selloffs as an opportunity to buy the dips.  For those wanting an easy “one stop shop” option for investing in Europe, the following ETFs deserve a good look:

iShares S&P Europe Index Fund (NYSE: $IEV)— This ETF is not a pure play on the Eurozone, per se.  It has a 35.1 percent allocation to the United Kingdom and another 13.3 percent allocation to Switzerland, which use the pound sterling and the franc, respectively.    Considering the high correlations these days between the markets of Eurozone and non-Eurozone states, I don’t consider this a problem.

The ETF has a rather high 18 percent allocation to financials, but is otherwise well diversified across sectors.  Its largest holdings are Nestlé (Pink sheets: $NSRGY), Novartis (NYSE: $NVS), HSBC (NYSE: $HBC)and Vodafone (Nasdaq: $VOD).

The ETS trades at a trailing P/E ratio of just 9 and a dividend yield of 3.55 percent .

PowerShares International Dividend Achievers (NYSE: $PID)—This ETF is my preferred way to play a rebound in Europe.  It’s not a pure play on the Eurozone—or even on the European continent, as it has exposure to Canada, East Asia, and even Israel—but it is an ETF loaded with survivors.  To be included in this ETF, a company has to have raised its dividend for a minimum of five consecutive years.  That means that any company on this list survived the 2008 meltdown and actually managed to raise its dividend under those conditions.

Like any traded security, there is always the risk that the value of your investment can fall in the short term.  But given the quality and durability of this ETF’s holdings—and given that it trades for just 12 times earnings and pays a dividend yield of nearly 4 percent—your risk of long-term loss would seem almost nil.  PID has a large allocation to the telecom sector, which happens to be my favorite industrial sector at current prices, and counts among its holdings Sizemore Investment Letter favorites Telefónica (NYSE: $TEF), Unilever (NYSE: $UL), and Diageo (NYSE: $DEO).

ProShares Ultra MSCI Europe (NYSE: $UPV)—This ETF is not for the faint of heart.  It is a leveraged fund designed to offer 200% of the daily return of the MSCI Europe index.  On days when it appears the world is not ending, this fund flies.  But on days when risk aversion creeps back into the picture, the bottom falls out.  On the day of Mr. Schaeuble’s comments, the ETF dropped 6 percent.

Still, investors wanting to place an aggressive bet on a recovery in Europe might find that this ETF is exactly what they’re looking for.  Just make sure you stock up on antacids ahead of time.

If you liked this article by Sizemore Insights, you’d probably enjoy The Sizemore Investment Letter, our premium members-only newsletter. Click here for more information.

By forexeasystems.com

Forex trading has a huge profit potential. Trader can manage his activity on a currency trading market by himself. He can make a couple trades per month or ten per day, whatever is comfortable for him. More and more people are interesting in foreign exchange rate market, but only 5% of all traders are successful traders. Why? Because the biggest enemy for a trader is himself. His emotions work against him.  He suffers from fear and greed.

In this case automated Forex trading system can help a trader to become successful. Automated Forex trading system is the sophisticated software based on the complicated mathematical algorithms, optimized for analyzing the dynamics of the rate exchange trend. It does not know words “almost”, “just a little bit more”, “It seems like” and so on. Programs don’t know greed and fear.

Plan the trade and trade the plan – that is automated trading about!

No doubt, automated Forex trading systems can generate large profits for the user. But as there are many systems offered from which mostly are not worth a cent it is difficult to choose the best one. As traders realized all features of automated Forex trading robots this market grows very fast and full of developers who are looking for easy money and trying to sell systems that don’t work. Follow the steps to ensure you will be no victim of fraud.

1. Price is an important indicator of quality. Have you ever heard about high quality and low price things!  If you are not rich enough to buy cheap stuff stay away from 99 USD systems or do you really think you can buy quality system which returns constant profits for such little money.

2. Test results are very important. Honest developer will provide you with test results from at least 7 years. If the developer cannot provide you with detailed test results, stay away and do not even think about this system.

3. While test results are important, forward results from real accounts are even more important. If the developer cannot provide you with verified forward results from at least 6 month, stay away. Because it has not been tested long enough to make any conclusions or not tested at all.

4. Refund period must be! No exceptions!

5. Eventually, Support is a good indicator of product quality. The platform settings are different from Broker to broker so it is a big possibility that you will have questions to support.  Before you buy a system write an Email to the developer and check how long it needs to get a response. If you don’t receive an answer at all, I would recommend you to look for another profitable Forex trading system.

When you follow the described steps you can be sure you will be no victim of fraud and will be able to choose the automated trading system which fit your personal needs wisely and will save you a lot of time and make a lot of money.  Each step is part of a good product; you cannot neglect any of them. This small guide will protect from a waste of your resources and can be extremely useful tool.

Stays the question, where to find good Forex trading software. One from the best developers is ForexEASystems where you can download free Metatrader custom indicator called Fx Pulse that can show actual Forex news directly on your chart in real time.

Click here AUTOMATED FOREX TRADING SYSTEMS to learn more about.

Source of article: http://www.articlesbase.com/currency-trading-articles/automated-forex-trading-system-several-tips-to-choose-the-best-one-2314235.html

The Best Way to Play the Spike in Home Heating Costs…

by David Fessler, Investment U Senior Analyst
Tuesday, October 18, 2011: Issue #1623

I was up at my hunting and fishing club this weekend enjoying the fall colors. They were at their peak in the Pocono Mountains here in Northeast Pennsylvania.

It was cold enough that the furnace kicked on at night. All three of our buildings are heated with oil. We just topped off our tanks. If you live in the Northeast, you might want to do the same. I’ll get to that in a moment.

Regular readers know I write a lot about factors that will continue to keep an upward bias on the demand for natural gas. Utilities switching old power plants over and building new ones to run on it are a big factor. The increasing use of natural gas as a source of transportation fuel will be, too.

But home heating isn’t something I’ve addressed thus far. However, recent statistics published by the Energy Information Administration point to a big swing away from heating oil towards natural gas.

Natural Gas and Home Heating Costs

About 5.7 million households in the Northeast United States use heating oil to keep warm in the winter. Seven years ago, that number was 6.9 million. That’s a decrease of 21 percent.

About half of those 1.2 million people switched to natural gas. Check out the graph below.

The peak of the oil-to-gas switch occurred three years ago, but the EIA is forecasting the changeover to begin rising again this coming winter as oil prices increase.

Why? Because heating oil prices are largely reflective of those for crude.

It’s easy to understand why people are considering the switch when you consider the following graph of crude oil and natural gas prices.

Both are expressed in dollars per million Btus, so we can directly compare the two.

It’s easy to see from the graph above that heating oil costs nearly twice as much as natural gas. Even installing a new furnace pays for itself very quickly under those circumstances.

From a historical perspective, the difference is even more dramatic. The average price for crude back in 2003 was $24 per barrel, and this year so far the average is $99 per barrel.

The prices for natural gas on the other hand, while on the rise through the 2008 heating season, fell dramatically ever since. This was largely due to the glut of gas on the market as a result of unconventional shale gas production.

Natural gas prices are about 20 percent lower this year than back in 2003, exacerbating the disparity between it and heating oil.

Heating Oil Prices To Set Winter Records

The EIA predicts that heating oil prices will set a new winter record this year. The EIA forecast shows a 10-percent increase over last year’s prices for the heating oil season, which runs from October through March. While natural gas is expected to rise five percent this winter, that’s from seasonal demand more than anything else.

Any global supply disruption in the flow of oil could send heating oil prices even higher.

For consumers contemplating a switch to natural gas, this just might be the best time, before the really cold weather descends on the Northeast.

The bottom line for investors, though, is that this switch over to natural gas is one more factor that’s actually reducing our use of oil and increasing the use of natural gas. In addition, the newer furnaces most consumers install are far more efficient than the ones they’re replacing, adding to the savings.

There are companies that can take advantage of these trends. I recommend that you keep an eye on pipeline carriers and producers like Kinder Morgan Energy Partners LP (NYSE: KMP), which recently announced the acquisition of El Paso Corporation (NYSE: EP). You can also monitor Williams Companies, Inc. (NYSE: WMB) and Energy Transfer Equity (NYSE: ETE); both produce, transport and store natural gas.

If you live in the Northeast and heat with oil, an investment in one of the above companies might be just the ticket to “warm” your portfolio and offset some of the higher heating oil prices you’ll likely be paying to heat your house this winter.

Good investing,

David Fessler

Article by Investment U

Source: ForexYard

Statements being released from within the upper echelons of the Riksbank are now pointing to a possibility that interest rates will be held steady for the majority of next year. Sweden’s economy, which rebounded stronger and faster than most others during the recession, is now being affected by regional and global downturns in a variety of sectors.

The opinion of an interest rate freeze next year came after money market participants were surveyed by a commission sponsored by the bank. The Riksbank held rates at 2% last month despite being expected to increase them each month in 2011. Tightening financials and weakened demand for Swedish goods has put a damper on those plans of increasing rates through this year.

The downturn in exports from Swedish companies was also viewed as severe enough o hamper any possibility of an increase in the near future. So long as fundamentals remain weak, the Swedish economy isn’t likely to put further limitations on growth and checks on inflation.

Read more forex trading news on our forex blog.

Forex Market Analysis provided by ForexYard.

© 2006 by FxYard Ltd

Disclaimer: Trading Foreign Exchange carries a high level of risk and may not be suitable for all investors. There is a possibility that you could sustain a loss of all of your investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with Foreign Exchange trading.