Fundamental Forex Market Outlook for the Upcoming Week
The key fundamental economic events that can strongly influence the forex market this week feature the EU Summit on Sunday, the BOC and RBNZ Rate Decisions on Tuesday and Wednesday respectively, followed by the BOJ Rate Decision tentatively scheduled for Thursday. Additional key economic releases due out this week are detailed further below, with the current market consensus expectations or the last result included in parenthesis whenever available.
The coming week starts on Sunday with the all day EU Economic Summit in Brussels. Monday’s highlights then include Australian PPI (0.6%), Chinese HSBC Flash
On Wednesday, the market will closely monitor the New Zealand NBNZ Business Confidence (last 34.4), Australian CPI (0.7%), U.S. Core Durable Goods Orders (0.5%), U.S. New Home Sales (302K), the Canadian BOC Monetary Policy Report and BOC Press Conference, the New Zealand Official Cash Rate Decision (2.50%) and the RBNZ Rate Statement.
Thursday is also busy and will see the release of the tentatively scheduled BOJ Monetary Policy Statement, Overnight Call Rate Decision (<0.10%), and BOJ Press Conference, as well as some closely watched U.S. numbers including: Advance GDP (2.4%), Weekly Initial Jobless Claims (404K) and Pending Home Sales (0.2%, > good for USD).
Friday’s schedule closes out the week featuring the Swiss KOF Economic Barometer (1.01).
Technical Forex Market Outlook for the Upcoming Week
EUR/USD:
Weekly Forecast: Higher
Resistance: 1.3893, 1.3913, 1.3936, 1.3972, 1.4103, 1.4147, 1.4258, 1.4279, 1.4327, 1.4499/1.4503, 1.4548/74, 1.4695 and 1.4939.
Support: 1.3796, 1.3720/43, 1.3652/97,1.3565, 1.3520/24, 1.3450, 1.3360, 1.3333, 1.3241/44, 1.3145, 1.3055, 1.3000, 1.2968, 1.2873, 1.2733, 1.2643 and 1.2586.
200-day MA: 1.4089 and rising.
14-day RSI: 56.9 and rising.
USD/JPY:
Weekly Forecast: Somewhat lower
Resistance: 77.19/47, 77.71, 77.85, 78.02, 78.66, 79.05, 79.40, 80.00, 80.22, 80.82, 81.34, 81.76, 82.01/22, 82.77, 83.09 and 83.77.
Support: 77.04, 76.90, 76.50/69, 76.30/32, 76.25, 76.14, 76.10, 75.94, 75.00 and 70.00.
200-day MA: 80.01 and falling.
14-day RSI: 41.6 and falling.
GBP/USD:
Weekly Forecast: Higher
Resistance: 1.5960, 1.6000, 1.6037, 1.608, 1.6109, 1.6130, 1.6204/06, 1.6252/59, 1.6332/47, 1.6434/73, 1.6500/98 and 1.6616.
Support: 1.5912/19, 1.5883, 1.5839/67, 1.5630/85, 1.5525/31, 1.5483, 1.5422, 1.5373, 1.5339/55, 1.5326, 1.5293, 1.5270, 1.5123, 1.5000, 1.4947, 1.4872, 1.4785/97, 1.4500, 1.4474, 1.4345 and 1.4229.
200-day MA: 1.6135 and flat.
14-day RSI: 60.7 and rising.
USD/CHF:
Weekly Forecast: Lower
Resistance: 0.8873/83, 0.8916/26, 0.8979, 0.9080, 0.9180, 0.9277/0.9339, 0.9368, 0.9774/83, 0.9971, 0.9997, 1.0000 and 1.0065.
Support: 0.8804, 0.8797, 0.8788, 0.8728, 0.8646, 0.8622, 0.8536, 0.8239 and 0.8000.
200-day MA: 0.8750 and falling mildly.
14-day RSI: 46.6 and falling.
AUD/USD:
Weekly Forecast: Higher
Resistance: 1.0369/96, 1.0473, 1.0481, 1.0511, 1.0564/70, 1.0599, 1.0624, 1.0633, 1.0659, 1.0683/93, 1.0718/26, 1.0763, 1.0784, 1.0909, 1.1000/15 and 1.1064/79.
Support: 1.0229, 1.0116, 1.0100, 1.0012, 0.9983, 0.9925, 0.9863, 0.9732, 0.9689, 0.9667, 0.9651, 0.9620/27, 0.9536/41, 0.9500, 0.9462, 0.9386, 0.9330, 0.9220, 0.9077, 0.9000, 0.8870, 0.8858, 0.8632, 0.8550 and 0.8066/81.
200-day MA: 1.0389 and rising.
14-day RSI: 59.8 and flat.
USD/CAD:
Weekly Forecast: Lower
Resistance: 1.0132/42, 1.0233, 1.0262/71, 1.0337, 1.0417, 1.0481/90, 1.0500, 1.0506, 1.0646/56, 1.0669, 1.0742, 1.0756, 1.0785, 1.0853, 1.0868, 1.1000, and 1.1101/23.
Support: 1.0042, 0.9939/1.0030, 0.9828/77, 0.9763/96, 0.9734/39, 0.9724, 0.9686, 0.9645, 0.9567, 0.9526, 0.9496, 0.9448/56, 0.9422, 0.9405/09, 0.9056 and 0.9000.
200-day MA: 0.9807 and rising mildly.
14-day RSI: 44.4 and falling.
NZD/USD:
Weekly Forecast: Higher
Resistance: 0.8066/93, 0.8109/19, 0.8126/40, 0.8150/90, 0.8269/78, 0.8327/39, 0.8365/86, 0.8423, 0.8469/72, 0.8500, 0.8534/75, 0.8676, 0.8764, 0.8793 and 0.8841.
Support: 0.7955/94, 0.7888, 0.7855/59, 0.7795, 0.7741, 0.7605/72, 0.7549, 0.7523, 0.7504, 0.7500, 0.7453/67, 0.7426, 0.7404, 0.7342, 0.7321, 0.7189, 0.7115, 0.7000 and 0.6945/62.
200-day MA: 0.7971 and rising mildly.
14-day RSI: 55.1 and rising slightly.
See the full forex economic calender here.
