By CountingPips.com
The latest Commitments of Traders (COT) report, released on Friday by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), showed that large futures speculators remained bullish in favor of the US dollar against the euro and British pound while trimming dollar longs against some of the other major currencies. Non-commercial futures traders, usually hedge funds and large speculators, decreased their total US dollar long positions to $13.77 billion on October 4th from a total long position of $14.38 billion on September 27th, according to the CFTC COT data and calculations by Reuters which calculates the dollar positions against the euro, British pound, Japanese yen, Australian dollar, Canadian dollar and the Swiss franc.
EuroFX: Currency speculators slightly decreased their futures positions for the euro against the U.S. dollar for a seventh consecutive week. Euro positions declined as of October 4th to a total of 82,697 net short contracts from the previous week’s total of 82,473 net short contracts reported on September 27th. Euro positions are at their lowest point since June 8, 2010 when net contracts were on the short side at -111,945. The decline in the pace of the changes last week could perhaps indicate a short-term bottom for euro positions.
The COT report is published every Friday by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) and shows futures positions as of the previous Tuesday. It can be a useful tool for traders to gauge investor sentiment and to look for potential changes in the direction of a currency or commodity. Each currency contract is a quote for that currency directly against the U.S. dollar, where as a net short amount of contracts means that more speculators are betting that currency to fall against the dollar and net long position expect that currency to rise versus the dollar. The graphs overlay the forex spot closing price of each Tuesday when COT trader positions are reported for each corresponding spot currency pair.
GBP: British pound sterling positions declined lower for the sixth consecutive week to stand at the lowest level since June 2010. Pound positions decreased to a total of 68,724 short positions on October 4th following a total of 64,010 short positions as of September 27th.
JPY: The Japanese yen net contracts edged slightly higher, according to data on October 4th. Yen net long positions rose to a total of 43,462 net long contracts reported on October 4th following a total of 42,322 net long contracts that were reported on September 27th.
CHF: Swiss franc long positions declined for a sixth straight week and fell over to the short side against the US dollar for the first time since July of 2010. Speculators cut bets for the Swiss currency futures to a total of 1,109 net short contracts following a total of 2,424 net long contracts as of September 27th. The Swiss currency, usually a popular safe haven currency, has seen very little movement since the Swiss National Bank enacted a policy to fight the strength of the franc and maintain a peg against the euro at the 1.20 level.
CAD: Canadian dollar positions slightly rebounded off of the lowest bearish level of the year from the previous week. CAD net contracts rose to a total of 15,682 short contracts as of October 4th following a drop to a total of 20,550 short contracts reported on September 27th.
AUD: The Australian dollar long positions rebounded as of October 4th after declining sharply for three straight weeks. AUD futures positions rose to a total net amount of 12,911 long contracts following a total of 5,167 net long contracts reported as of September 27th. The September 27th level had marked the lowest level for Aussie positions since July of 2010.
NZD: New Zealand dollar futures positions fell for a third consecutive week and declined to the lowest level since the middle of April, according to the data reported on October 4th. NZD contracts decreased lower to a total of 5,566 net long contracts following a total of 9,591 net long contracts registered on September 27th.
MXN: Mexican peso contracts continued their decline and decreased for the ninth straight week to remain on a bearish path against the dollar. Peso positions declined to a total of 25,431 net short speculative positions as of October 4th following a total of 20,626 short contracts that were reported as of September 27th.
COT Data Summary as of October 4, 2011
Large Speculators Net Positions vs. the US Dollar
EUR -82697
GBP -68724
JPY +43462
CHF -1109
CAD -15682
AUD +12911
NZD +5566
MXN -25431
