AUDUSD has formed a cycle bottom at 0.9622 on 4-hour chart. Further rise to test the resistance of the downtrend line is possible, as long as the trend line resistance holds, the price action from 0.9622 is treated as consolidation of downtrend, and another fall towards 0.9000 is still possible. On the upside, a clear break above the trend line could indicate that the fall from 1.0764 has completed at 0.9622 already, then the following uptrend could bring price to 1.0400 area.
On September 22, the Dow and S&P opened down over 2.5%. Oil was down, copper was down, and even GOLD was down sharply. Watch this video excerpt from Robert Prechter’s special video issue of the August Elliott Wave Theorist where he explains what is causing diverse markets such as these to move together in today’s environment.
 Free Report: Stocks — Buying Opportunity or Another “Free Fall” Ahead?Find out what these market moves mean to your investments with current analysis from Elliott Wave International. Bob Prechter has just released a FREE report — with urgent analysis from his August and September 2011 Elliott Wave Theorist market letters, including another video excerpt from the special video issue of the August Theorist. Stocks — Buying Opportunity or Another “Free Fall” Ahead? will help you put these uncertain markets into perspective so that you’ll be better positioned to both protect your investments when needed and prosper when opportunities arise. |
This article was syndicated by Elliott Wave International and was originally published under the headline It’s All the Same Market in a Deflationary Environment. EWI is the world’s largest market forecasting firm. Its staff of full-time analysts led by Chartered Market Technician Robert Prechter provides 24-hour-a-day market analysis to institutional and private investors around the world.
Sept. 27 (Bloomberg) — Leif Eskesen, an economist at HSBC Holdings Plc, talks about Reserve Bank of India monetary policy and efforts to tame the fastest inflation among the so-called BRIC economies. He speaks with Owen Thomas on Bloomberg Television’s “Countdown.” (Source: Bloomberg)
Sept. 27 (Bloomberg) — Neil Shearing, an economist at Capital Economics Ltd., assesses the impact of Russian President Dmitry Medvedev dismissal of Finance Minister Alexei Kudrin. He speaks with Francine Lacqua on Bloomberg Television’s “The Pulse.”
By Harjeet
India is rushing at a rapid pace in the industrial development, globalization and structural reforms. Research shows that 2010 experienced the fastest growth ever and it is expected to increase from 9 to 9.5 per cent between 2013 and 2015. Hence investment sectors in India are opening the doors to the non-residential Indians even more who are interested to invest in the various sectors of their homeland. However, it is necessary to take care to give assurance to the NRI so that there is a continuous flow of money into the country.
There are various sectors that are developing rapidly and so NRI investments too are more in those sectors. According to economists NRIs usually send money to India for their parents and dependents. Hence they wish to build a home and thereby invest in property. Developers and contractors are planning their projects to suit the tastes of NRI investors. The luxurious apartments are often built for the parents of an NRI who will come back to his homeland later on. However the present trends show that NRI investment in buildings and flats are also for the purpose of rental value and the earnings that they will bring in. The value of property is always soaring especially in this world of population growth. So NRI Investments in property has also become quite common.
Coal is one of the leading fuel suppliers in India. Coal has helped a lot in the industrial heritage of India. So investing in this field is considered fruitful by some people. India occupies the 5th rank among the biggest economies in the world. So NRI investments in India have gained quite a lot of importance. The increasing financial system and diverse industries are welcoming more investment opportunities for those living outside India but have their hearts here. Some of the top investment companies in India are attracting foreign exchange due to favorable locations, investment markets, technical partnerships and financial firms. Investment sectors in India has a massive work force and is hence famous for expansion and competitive markets.
Some of the well known companies that attract NRI investments in India are namely Tata Investment Corporation, Shah Financial Group, HSBC Asset Management India Pvt. Ltd., Bajaj Allianz, SMC Investment Solutions and Services, Stanrose Mafatlal Investment and Finance Limited and many others. The NRI population can invest in stock markets also. There are no problems if they invest in this field. They can directly invest in the Indian Companies through their own demat accounts. There is a procedure of starting investments by NRIs in India. They need to open a demat account, register with a broker, continue all transactions through the authorized banks listed for NRIs by the Indian Reserve Bank and any change of address like if an NRI shifts to India and becomes an Indian resident then he has to inform the bank and submit all relevant details.
Harjeet is an Indian – born mass-market novelist, who covers the world internet related topics . He writes columns and articles for various websites and internet journals in the domain of Investing in India and Investment options.
USD/CAD Technical Update
The USD/CAD currency pair has mounted a serious recovery after forming multi-year lows this April. The potential is still there for subsequent increases, even though the currency pair has had little in the form of a move to the downside; the higher time frame charts reveal we are still running close to major support.
A technical analysis overview of USD/CAD follows below. Join us at our forex forum to look at this and other currency pairs.
USD/CAD Daily Chart Shows Parity Aligned With High and Low Timeframe Fib Confluence
USD/CAD Weekly Chart
Sept. 27 (Bloomberg) — Russian Finance Minister Alexei Kudrin was dismissed by President Dmitry Medvedev after questioning the Russian leader’s spending policies, resulting in a clash on state television yesterday. Owen Thomas reports on Bloomberg Television’s “On the Move.”
The market is breathing a rather massive sigh of relief this week as it appeared that Greece would not be defaulting and that the global financial system would not be melting down after all—or at least not at the moment. Hopes are high that Europe’s political class is finally taking the debt situation seriously and that a deal is in the works that will prop up the Continent’s banking system in the event of a sovereign default.
Investors are confident that new Greek austerity measures will pass the Greek parliament and convince lenders to release the next traunch of bailout funds. And if that wasn’t enough, the world’s major central banks—including the European Central Bank, the U.S. Federal Reserve, the Bank of England, the Swiss National Bank, and the Bank of Japan—jointly pledged two weeks ago to make available virtually unlimited dollar credit to any European bank facing a liquidity crunch.
So that’s it. The crisis is over. The Eurozone is saved, and it’s time to pile into Greek stocks.
And if you believe that, to take a line from the country singer George Strait, I’ve got some oceanfront property in Arizona to sell you.
The recent developments do indeed preclude a liquidity crisis like the one that wrecked the U.S. financial system in the wake of the 2008 Lehman failure. They do nothing, however, to address Greece’s solvency issues. The country’s debts are expected to be 166 percent of GDP next year, and that debt ratio is almost certain to rise even if Greece toes the austerity line and reduces government spending because the denominator—GDP—is shrinking, even while debt continues to rise.
There is no happy ending here. Greece will never pay back its debts, and the only way out of this mess is default.
The Europeans know this, of course. But the longer they postpone the inevitable, the longer their banks have to shore up their capital bases and the better the chances that Greece’s default is “contained” and fails to spread to the other “PIIGS. “
A Greek default, when it eventually happens, will almost certainly create some fantastic opportunities for investors with the intestinal fortitude to, as Warren Buffett says, be greedy when others are fearful. It is during these “blood in the street” moments when investors are able to pick up solid assets for pennies on the dollar.
That day is most certainly not today, however. Greek stocks are fairly cheap by world standards (The Financial Times reports that the Greek market sports a P/E ratio of 9.4 and a dividend yield of 4.6%), but this is hardly cheap enough given the macro risks facing the country and given that the “E” in the ratio—earnings—are highly questionable at the moment.
Still, in waiting for that day when Greece eventually does default, I recommend patient investors put a handful of Greek ADRs on their watch list.
I’ll start with the Coca-Cola Hellenic Bottling Company S.A. ($CCH). Outside of buying a prime tourist property on one of Greece’s picturesque islands, this is probably the safest and most durable investment you can make in the Eastern Mediterranean. Coca-Cola Hellenic Bottling is a bottler of Coca-Cola products. The company produces, sells, and distributes carbonated soft drinks juices, waters, sports and energy drinks, and other ready-to-drink beverages. Drinks makers tend to be recession resistant, though a deep enough recession will bite into Hellenic’s sales, as would a prolonged tourism drought. The company trades for a modest 0.73 times sales, though it will almost certainly get cheaper in the event of a Greek default.
Another stock to consider is Hellenic Telecommunications Organization SA (HLTOY.PK). I was explaining my bullishness on the global telecom sector to a colleague recently, and his reply struck me as profound: “Even if the world ends, people are still going to want to call and talk about it.” While folksy in a Yogi Berra-esque sort of way, it is nonetheless true. Fixed-line telecom has been in decline in the Western world, but mobile telecom and internet have become essential services for modern life. Hellenic Telecom provides these essential services in Greece, Albania, Bulgaria, and Romania. The stock trades at just 0.34 times sales, though again, I have little doubt it will get cheaper.
Finally, investors should keep an eye on National Bank of Greece SA ($NBG), the largest and most influential Greek banking group with operations in Turkey, the United Kingdom, South Eastern Europe, Cyprus, Malta, Egypt, and South Africa. We all know what happened to the American banking sector in the 2008 meltdown, of course. But in 2009, many of the banks that survived the meltdown delivered triple-digit gains for investors brave enough to scoop up shares at the bottom. National Bank of Greece trades for just 0.36 times book value. Of course, in the event of Greek default, that “book value” won’t be worth all that much.
I want to repeat a very important point: do NOT buy these today. While fine companies, they have the misfortune of operating in a basket-case country and are simply not cheap enough given the probability of and eventual Greek meltdown. This is the time to be patient. After a default, wait a few weeks or even a few months for the dust to settle. You probably won’t time it exactly right, but that’s ok. Like horseshoes and hand grenades, “close” will likely be good enough.
And while we wait, the circus continues. Just two weeks ago, Gunther Oettinger, the top German representative in the European Union, proposed that the European Union invade Greece and seize its assets as collateral for its loans. This is the same Mr. Oettinger that earlier suggested that Greece and the other PIIGS be forced to fly their flags at half-mast on all EU buildings as a mark of shame for their excessive debts.
It should be emphasized that Mr. Oettinger is not a fringe member of parliament; he is a high-ranking European minister, and his comments make Texas Governor Rick Perry’s recommendation to put Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke on trial for treason seem almost reasonable by comparison.
So again, anyone who believes the Euro crisis is over may contact me at any time about that Arizona oceanfront property…
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Sept. 27 (Bloomberg) — Jonathan Barratt, managing director of Commodity Broking Services Pty, talks about the outlook for gold, copper and oil prices. He speaks from Sydney with Linzie Janis on Bloomberg Television’s “First Look.” (Source: Bloomberg)
Sept. 27 (Bloomberg) — Louis Gargour, chief investment officer at LNG Capital LLP, talks about the euro-zone debt crisis and his stocks strategy. He talks with Francine Lacqua on Bloomberg Television’s “The Pulse.”
