Russia Adjusts Rate Differentials, Ruble in Decline

Source: ForexYard

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The Russian central bank decided to hold its interest rates steady on Wednesday, coming in line with market expectations and following suit with its westerly neighbors in Europe who held rates steady last week; though one adjustment does have some analysts abuzz. The bank decided to cut its repurchasing rate (also known as the repo rate) by 25 basis points while lifting its deposit rate by the same amount.

The repo rate will be slashed from 5.50% to 5.25% effective 15 September 2011, while the deposit rate will be bumped up to 3.75% from 3.50%. The Russian refinancing rate was left unchanged at 8.25%

The reasoning behind the move, according to the bank’s official statement, was to position the nation’s currency against unwanted volatility should a liquidity crisis take place. Narrowing the rate differential is expected to smooth the value changes in the Russian ruble (RUS) over time; giving investors more confidence against heavy losses should they decide to take on more RUS in their portfolios. These new rate levels are expected to act as a balance to various growth risks which have cropped up lately, and to the slowing speed of inflation.

Read more forex trading news on our forex blog.

Forex Market Analysis provided by ForexYard.

© 2006 by FxYard Ltd

Disclaimer: Trading Foreign Exchange carries a high level of risk and may not be suitable for all investors. There is a possibility that you could sustain a loss of all of your investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with Foreign Exchange trading.

US Retail Sales Data Disappoints

Source: ForexYard

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The figures on American retail sales this afternoon led several traders to surge into the greenback immediately following the release as safe havens appear to be gaining appeal. The two reports on retail sales coincided with the release of the producer price index (PPI), however, which did give a mild indication of positive data.

The core report from retail sales highlights the crisis in the American market; mainly, that consumers are afraid to spend money. Combined with the nominal figure, the retail sales data becomes even more harrowing. The core report cited a 0.1% growth, but the nominal figure had 0% growth. Both appear to be feeding the bullishness of the greenback due to a heightened risk averse trading session.

Read more forex trading news on our forex blog.

Forex Market Analysis provided by ForexYard.

© 2006 by FxYard Ltd

Disclaimer: Trading Foreign Exchange carries a high level of risk and may not be suitable for all investors. There is a possibility that you could sustain a loss of all of your investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with Foreign Exchange trading.

British Employment Mildly Optimistic

Source: ForexYard

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Wednesday’s data on employment and earnings in the United Kingdom have helped give some bullish sentiment to the British pound (GBP). The Claimant Count Change report, which measures the change in the number of people filing for unemployment benefits in the previous month, sunk well below market forecasts. The average earnings index was also bumped mildly above what many were expecting.

The data, released by the UK Office of National Statistics, showed the number filing for unemployment benefits to be near 20,300, well below the forecast 34,800 and last month’s reading of 33,700. The underlying reason may not be as optimistic as the report initially appears, but it does add to the mounting bullish pressure beneath the GBP. The earnings index also saw a rise of 2.8%, beating last month’s report and this month’s forecast for 2.7% growth in earnings. This news supports the growing value of employment in the UK.

Read more forex trading news on our forex blog.

Forex Market Analysis provided by ForexYard.

© 2006 by FxYard Ltd

Disclaimer: Trading Foreign Exchange carries a high level of risk and may not be suitable for all investors. There is a possibility that you could sustain a loss of all of your investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with Foreign Exchange trading.

The “Rockefeller” Stock I Want to Own Forever

By DividendOpportunities.com

He is the richest person in the history.

Warren Buffett? At his peak, Buffett’s wealth is less than one-fifth this man’s fortune.

Bill Gates doesn’t even come close. Neither does Walmart founder Sam Walton or telecom magnate — and current richest man in the world — Carlos Slim.

None of these men can hold a candle to the $336 billion fortune (adjusted for inflation) amassed by a name synonymous with wealth… John D. Rockefeller.

This stock owns a rare breed of assets that are nearly impossible for small investors like you and me to purchase directly. Typically, only major companies or industrial titans like Rockefeller can buy them.

Most people know Rockefeller became rich via his company, Standard Oil. And while I want to invest in the same sort of business that he did, my “Rockefeller” pick has nothing to do with oil.

But that’s fine by me, because when you look closely at exactly WHY Rockefeller got rich, you realize Standard Oil didn’t turn Rockefeller into a billionaire simply because it was in the oil business.

No. Standard Oil made Rockefeller the richest man in history because the company held a monopoly in its market… while also paying a fat dividend on the shares he held.

And now, I’ve found an investment — Brookfield Infrastructure (NYSE: BIP) — that lets you own stakes in dozens of infrastructure monopolies across the entire world. And in addition to capital gains, it pays investors a 5.4% dividend each year to own it.

In total, about 80% of the partnership’s revenues are under contracts or are regulated. Meanwhile, those practically guaranteed revenues are coming from one of the most compelling portfolios I’ve ever seen.

The partnership has a stake in electric grids in Chile. It holds railroads in Australia… ports all over Europe… coal facilities in Australia… toll roads in South America… and timberland in the United States and Canada. These are assets that no one can compete with. A competitor isn’t going to build another electric grid or a new port.

I can only think of one, maybe two, other places where you can invest in a stable group of monopolistic holdings this broad from all over the planet.

But any “Rockefeller” idea would be incomplete if it ignored dividends. After all, it was Rockefeller who once quipped, “Do you know the only thing that gives me pleasure? It’s to see my dividends coming in.”

Right now BIP pays $0.35 per unit each quarter. That’s a 27% increase over just the past 10 months and gives the units a yield of 5.4%.

But I think that yield is going to rise. Not only does Brookfield explicitly state its aim is to raise its distributions 3-7% a year, but it also aims to return 60-70% of its income to investors in the form of dividends. And in the most recent quarter, Brookfield paid just 50%. I’m predicting the company will raise its distributions in the coming months to reach its target payout ratio.

It’s pretty obvious to see that I like BIP, but I will admit — I am biased. Brookfield Infrastructure is one of my “10 Best Stocks to Hold Forever,” and I also hold shares in my $100,000 real-money portfolio for Top 10 Stocks.

That’s not to say there isn’t any risk of owning BIP. In the market sell-off it fell too, although not as much as the broader market… and it rebounded quickly. But if you’re looking for a long-term holding that pays a solid dividend, I think Brookfield Infrastructure is worth further research.

[Note: If you’d like to learn more about the rest of my “10 Best Stocks to Hold Forever” — including one idea of which Warren Buffett just bought 189,000 shares — visit this link.]

All the best,


Paul Tracy
StreetAuthority Co-founder, Chief Investment Strategist — Top 10 Stocks

P.S. — Don’t miss a single issue! Add our address, [email protected], to your Address Book or Safe List. For instructions, go here.

Disclosure: StreetAuthority owns shares of BIP as part of the Top 10 Stocks $100,000 “real money” portfolio.  In accordance with company policies, StreetAuthority always provides readers with at least 48 hours advance notice before buying or selling any securities in any “real money” model portfolio.

Three Techniques to Avoid the Pain

By Sara Nunnally, Managing Editor, Smart Investing Daily, taipanpublishinggroup.com

I just put the finishing touches on my presentation for our Money Crisis Survival Summit in Las Vegas next weekend.

I hope to see some of you there, because the clock is ticking…

The Federal Reserve’s next policy meeting starts Sept. 21, right after the event. The meeting was only supposed to last a day, but with poor economic news still piling up, the Fed announced its meeting will last two days.

Front and center will be talk of the Fed’s next move to prop up the economy.

It “worked” last time, so why not another round of government bond buying?

I used quotes because the Fed’s $600 billion debt buying program led to a 28% rally in the stock market. But without the firm foundation of a stable economy, the bottom is already starting to drop out from under the market.

Friday, the Dow closed down 2.69%. The S&P 500 dropped 2.67%, and the Nasdaq fell 2.42%.

Since the Fed’s bond buying program ended in June, this is how the market has performed:

Market Performance Chart
View larger chart

The major indexes are down between 7% and 11%.

Last Thursday, I talked to you about a charting technique that is predicting a big rally before the end of the year. If that coincides with another round of debt buying, you need to protect every bullish move you make.

We’ve given you no shortage of ideas.

Covered Calls

Zachary Scheidt, editor of New Growth Investor, showed you how covered calls can protect your profits and give you additional income.

In our Smart Investment Strategies edition from July 20, Zach said:

Covered call positions were some of our best moneymakers at the long/short fund I managed. We would typically buy a few thousand shares of different stocks that we believed had a good chance of trading higher (or at least not trading lower), and then we would sell covered calls against that stock.

Over a period of two months, a typical call option will give you only a modest percentage return. For instance, if you were to buy Allied Nevada Gold Corp. (ANV:NYSE) today at $40, and sell the $40 calls at $3, you would be locking in a 7.5% return over the next 60 days. That sounds a bit boring, right?

But what if you could generate 7.5% during every 60-day period over the course of a year? The compound annual returns would add up to 54%! And this is in a stock portfolio that actually holds less risk than a typical account that doesn’t use covered calls.

The covered call strategy is used by major hedge funds and other Wall Street institutions, but that doesn’t mean individual investors can’t get in on the action. Zach says, “These hedge fund tools offer plenty of ways for investors to cut back on their risk, add to returns, and create a stockpile of wealth — even in a turbulent market!”

Precious Metals

We’ve been harping and harping on this form of protection. We hope you’ve been listening. This chart says it all.

Precious Metal Chart
View larger chart

This is the SPDR Gold Shares ETF (GLD:NYSE), the iShares Silver Trust (SLV:NYSE), and the iPath Platinum ETN (PGM:NYSE).

Precious metals will continue to be an important protection tool against market downturns. If you’re not holding any in your portfolio, consider adding some on price dips. If we do get a market rally toward the end of the year, we could see gold, silver and platinum prices come back out of the clouds.

That might be a great buying opportunity — for profits as well as protection.

Portfolio “Insurance”

In August, Justice Litle, editor of Macro Trader, told you about portfolio “insurance.” Specifically, Justice showed you how to use inverse ETFs. “Utilized properly,” he said, “portfolio insurance doesn’t create catastrophe. It prevents it.”

Here’s what he means:

Inverse ETFs are designed to rise in value when an index or a sector declines. There are a wide variety of inverse ETFs, covering everything from sectors and indexes to commodities and even currencies.

Three quick advantages of the inverse ETF are (1) you can purchase them in a retirement account, (2) you can buy quickly, and (3) there is no direct exposure to time decay as with options.

For example, if you find that you have a lot of big-name, blue chip companies from the Dow in your portfolio, take a look at the ProShares UltraShort Dow 30 ETF (DXD:NYSE). This ETF moves twice as much as the Dow — in the opposite direction. On Friday, when the Dow dropped 2.69%, this ETF climbed 5.37%.

If you’re loving this article, sign up for Smart Investing Daily to receive all of Jared Levy and Sara Nunnally’s investment commentary.

Keep a Close Eye on the Markets

Now that you have three different portfolio protection tools to add to your arsenal, keep a close eye on the markets… particularly after the Federal Reserve meets next week. Don’t make any bullish moves without protection.

A rally could be in the mix over the next couple of months, but it could be nothing more than an over-inflated balloon. When it bursts, those unprotected could see massive losses in their portfolios.

P.S. This Is Rising Faster Than Gold and Silver… The price of this rare material doubled over two weeks in June. If that happened to gold, it’d be worth $3,200 in two weeks. Imagine how much money that would make investors.

Well, that’s exactly the kind of profit you could make by playing this unique commodity market.

Article brought to you by Taipan Publishing Group. Additional valuable content can be syndicated via our News RSS feed.

 

US Economic Optimism Rises in September

By ForexYard

Data on American economic optimism yesterday signaled an uptick in outlook from the previous month, as reported by IBD/TIPP. The news has done little to the forex market, however, though it could ripple through longer-term analyses on US financial markets should further dips in industry be reported.

Economic News

USD – Dollar Remains Strong as Debt Auctions Weigh on Euro Zone

The US dollar (USD) was seen trading mildly bullish Tuesday as investors weighed the impact bond auctions in Greece and Italy will have on the euro zone. A sudden wave of risk aversion last week seemed to have helped the greenback surge, and pessimism about sovereign debt in Europe is supporting this pressure. The EUR/USD seems to be floating closer to 1.33 as technical pressures also begin to mount.

Data on American economic optimism yesterday also signaled an uptick in outlook from the previous month, as reported by IBD/TIPP. The news has done little to the forex market, however, though it could ripple through longer-term analyses on US financial markets should further dips in industry be reported. Manufacturing has been forecast to slump moderately going into the third quarter as most indicators revealed decreased demand. How this will affect the greenback in the weeks ahead is so far undetermined.

As for today, there will be a heavy string of US economic releases, with most news focused on retail sales and the producer price index (PPI). Liquidity will likely be much higher in today’s afternoon trading as these reports get published. With consumer confidence, inflation, and retail sales in focus this week, the picture on future demand and growth levels is expected to become moderately clarified and this could weigh heavily on currency direction in the short- and mid-term.

GBP – GBP Moving Bullish as Inflation Hits Targets

The Great Britain pound (GBP) is expected to be seen trading with bullish results this week ahead of a slew of reports on the country’s manufacturing, housing, and service sectors. Against the US dollar (USD) the pound has actually been trending upwards despite the greenback’s bullish moves against its other currency rivals.

A mildly pessimistic sentiment towards investing in the euro at the moment has many investors on edge when considering regional investments. An embattled euro zone is sending financial ripples through its neighbors and some are concerned it could pull growth down across the entire continent. With yesterday’s inflationary data out of Britain, this doesn’t seem to be the case, at least for the island economy north of Western Europe. Housing data seemed a bit pessimistic, but consumer prices are indeed growing at a healthy rate in the UK.

Sentiment across the region may have turned negative, with many analysts and economists expecting moves towards safety by traders this week, but the GBP could see a solid weathering of this financial storm so long as data remains bullish. Great Britain appears positioned for a relatively better quarter than its southerly neighbors. The pound could see some bullish movement this week as a result of this overall sentiment.

NZD – New Zealand Interest Rates on Tap

The New Zealand dollar (NZD) was seen trading mildly higher versus most other currencies this morning as its value responded to recent challenges with relatively more optimism than some had anticipated. Data in New Zealand has been mixed lately with some indications that inflation is not rising as strongly as in other economies, but perhaps in a good way. Food prices fell 1.3% this month, which could produce bearish pressure on the NZD, but should prove to be a boon for consumers in times of economic stress.

The latest movements of the Kiwi are causing some concerns, however, as many speculators are anticipating a bearish turn following recent surges in risk aversion. With interest rate decisions out later this evening, investors are waiting to see what the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) will do. A strengthening Kiwi has benefits for the buying power of the island economy, though its dependence on exports makes a strong NZD unfavorable for longer-term growth in New Zealand’s economy.

Oil – Crude Oil Trading Flat in Anticipation of Big Move

Crude Oil prices held steady Tuesday as sentiment appeared to favor a mild uptick in global stocks following reports of monetary moves being made by several central banks. Data releases out of Europe and the US last week are still driving many investors back into safe-haven assets as many reports suggested a surprise downtick in growth among global industrial output and consumer spending.

An expected spike in dollar values due to this week’s risk sensitive environment has prevented many investors from taking positions on physical assets, creating a consolidation pattern on oil charts, but with the USD’s gains not materializing in large enough numbers early this week, sentiment appears to have the price of crude oil holding steady. Should Crude Oil sentiment continue to flatten this week, oil prices may reach a decision point which forces a wide swing later in the trading week.

Technical News

EUR/USD

A sharp decline in the value of pair and EUR/USD has put in serious technical damage when it closed below its long term uptrend from May 2010. Both weekly and monthly stochacstics are falling as the pair undergoes a sharp correction. Support comes in at a range of 1.3400-25 from the February low and the 50% Fibonacci retracement from the bullish move that took the pair from the May 2010 low to the May 2011 high. The 61% retracement at 1.3040 is a significant mile marker while long term players may be focused on the January pivot of 1.2875. To the upside the July low of 1.3835 is the initial resistance, followed by the previously trend line which could prove to be resistive as often occurs with broken trend lines and this level is found at 1.3990.

GBP/USD

Three weeks of declines and cable has broken below its long term rising trend line from the May 2010 low. The pivot at 1.5780 is a significant support level which coincides with a 38% Fibonacci retracement from the May 2010 to April 2011 move. Below here the GBP/USD has support at the October lows/early January highs of 1.5650 followed by December pivot at 1.5350. Initial resistance may be found at 1.6080 followed by 1.6375 and the late August high of 1.6450.

USD/JPY

The yen has been range bound between its all-time low of 75.94 and 78.85 to the upside. Price action in the crosses has been much more volatile. Daily, weekly, and monthly stochastics are mixed and the next major resistance level is found at the post intervention high of 80.20 followed by the long term trend line from the June 2007 high which comes in at 81.00. A lack of support on the daily chart makes it difficult to predict a downside target but the big round number of 75 stands out.

USD/CHF

Last week the pair surged higher by almost 13% on the back of the SNB protective floor at 1.20 for the EUR/CHF. The USD/CHF continues to move higher and is now testing its falling trend line from November 2010 which comes in at 0.8890. This level has additional importance as it coincides with the 68% Fibonacci retracement from the November 2010 high to the August low. Both weekly and monthly stochastics are rising and with a break here the pair could extend its gains to the resistance at 0.8945 from the April 1st high. Support comes in at 0.8545 and 0.8250.

The Wild Card

EUR/JPY

The EUR/JPY has dropped to its lowest level in 10-years as increased risk aversion in the forex markets has strengthened the Japanese yen. This may bring about additional momentum traders as the trend extends itself. Resistance is seen back at 106.25 from the post tsunami low followed by 112.00 and the August 4th post intervention high of 114.15.

Forex Market Analysis provided by ForexYard.

© 2006 by FxYard Ltd

Disclaimer: Trading Foreign Exchange carries a high level of risk and may not be suitable for all investors. There is a possibility that you could sustain a loss of all of your investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with Foreign Exchange trading.

Risk Sentiment Falls and AUD Comes Under Pressure

Source: ForexYard

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The Australian dollar has been one of the worst performing currencies this week as reduced risk sentiment weighs on the currency. The fact that AUD market positioning continues to increase stands out in this “risk off” trading environment.

With market speculation running wild of a potential Greek default and French banks coming under funding pressures risk sentiment has plummeted as traders move into safe haven assets such as the USD and US Treasuries. The AUD is considered a high beta currency and has been sent sharply lower over the past few days. Versus the USD the AUD is down 2.1% this week alone and has shed 5.2% since its September 1st high. The AUD is also down sharply in the crosses with the AUD/NZD falling 1.1 % this week and the AUD/JPY down 3.1% as well.

Data released on Monday showed the Australian trade surplus declined to AUD 1.826 bn while the June surplus was revised lower to 1.82 bn from 2.05 bn. The declines in the trade balance point to weaker future growth. Data released today showed Q2 housing starts declined -4.7% and underlines the slowing housing sector. Risks of a hard landing in China have also weighed on the AUD as over 21% of its Australian exports go to China, though positive new loan data and lower than expected CPI have reduced risks for a sharp decline in Chinese growth.

At its last meeting the RBA highlighted of the increasing risks to the European and US economies but maintained its hawkish tone as inflation remains elevated at 3.6% and economic growth continues to increase due to higher commodity prices. However, it is unlikely for the RBA to continue its current rate hiking cycle given the western economies may be standing on the edge of a cliff.

What stands out is the rising long position in the market for Australian dollar futures. The most recent CFCT Commitment of Traders report shows speculators have added to their long AUD positioning despite reduced market sentiment stemming from Europe. It will be interesting to see if this trend continues in this Friday’s report.

The technical picture is also looking bleak. After breaking its long term trend line from Q2 2010 the AUD/USD failed to make a significant move back above the trend line in early September. Often a currency pair will break below a trend line only to rise back to the previously broken trend lines which will then serve as a resistance level. A move below the support of 1.0315 has opened the door to 0.9925 at the August low/38% Fib retracement from the 2010-2011 up trend. Below that rests the March low of 0.9700. The AUD/NZD head and shoulders pattern failed to complete itself and likely caught AUD bulls long, triggering stops on the way down. The next support level for the AUD/NZD rests at the August low of 1.2625.

CFTC__AUD

Read more forex trading news on our forex blog.

Forex Market Analysis provided by ForexYard.

© 2006 by FxYard Ltd

Disclaimer: Trading Foreign Exchange carries a high level of risk and may not be suitable for all investors. There is a possibility that you could sustain a loss of all of your investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with Foreign Exchange trading.

Central Bank of Russia Keeps Refi Rate at 8.25%

The Central Bank of Russia held its benchmark refinancing rate steady at 8.25%, but cut the overnight auction-based repurchase rate by 25 basis points to 5.25% and raised the fixed overnight deposit rate by 25 basis points to 3.75%.  The Bank said: “The decision was supported by the assessment of inflation risks and risks to the sustainability of economic growth, including those associated with the uncertainty of the outlook for global economic activity, as well as of current money market conditions and the dynamics of the factors affecting banking sector liquidity. Implemented decision aimed at narrowing the gap between interest rates on the Bank of Russia liquidity provision and absorption operations should contribute to restrain money market interest rates volatility regarding the risks of the shortage of the rouble liquidity in the banking sector.”

The Russian central bank previously left interest rates unchanged, while it last raised the fixed overnight deposit rate by 25bps to 3.50% in May, and the benchmark refinancing rate by 25 basis points to 8.25% in April this year.  Russia reported annual inflation of 8.2% in August, down from 9% in July, and 9.4% in June, meanwhile Bank Chairman Sergey Ignatiev is trying to keep inflation between 6% and 7%.  Deputy Economy Minister, Andrei Klepach, has previously said full-year inflation may be towards the lower end of the government’s 6.5-7.5% forecast.  Russian economic growth slowed to 4.1% in the first quarter of 2011, down from 4.5% in the December quarter of 2010; the IMF is expecting 4.5% growth for the full year.

www.CentralBankNews.info