By CountingPips.com
Fundamental Forex Market Outlook for the Upcoming Week
The key fundamental economic events that can strongly influence the forex market this week feature the U.S. CB Consumer Confidence survey (46.4) due out on Thursday and Canadian GDP (0.3%) out on Friday.
Key economic releases due out this week are detailed further below, with the current market consensus expectations or the last result included in parenthesis whenever available.
Monday’s data features the results of the German Ifo Business Climate survey (107.0), and U.S. New Home Sales (296K), while Tuesday’s key data includes GBP Nationwide HPI, which is released from the 27th through the 30th (0.2%), and the featured U.S. CB Consumer Confidence survey.
On Wednesday, the market will closely monitor U.S. Core Durable Goods Orders (0.2%), as well as a speech by U.S. Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke. Thursday will see the release of U.S. Weekly Initial Jobless Claims (420K) and U.S. Pending Home Sales (-1.6). Kiwi traders will be watching NZ Building Consents (13.0%) out late in the session.
Friday’s important data includes this week’s highlighted Canadian GDP, the Swiss KOF Economic Barometer (1.46), and the New Zealand NBNZ Business Confidence survey (34.4). Saturday will then end the week with Chinese Manufacturing PMI (50.7).
Technical Forex Market Outlook for the Upcoming Week
EUR/USD:
Weekly Forecast: Higher, Short-Term Forecast: Lower
Resistance: 1.3566, 1.3586, 1.3720, 1.3743, 1.3796, 1.3936, 1.3972, 1.4103, 1.4147, 1.4258, 1.4279, 1.4327, 1.4499/1.4503, 1.4535/48, 1.4576, 1.4642/56, 1.4695, 1.4881, 1.4939 and 1.5144.
Support: 1.3517, 1.3500, 1.3494, 1.3458, 1.3418, 1.3384, 1.3333, 1.3000, 1.2968 and 1.2873.
200-day MA: 1.4045 and slowly rising.
14-day RSI: 33.4 and falling.
USD/JPY:
Weekly Forecast: Somewhat higher, Short-Term Forecast: Mixed
Resistance: 76.70, 76.88, 76.96, 77.06, 77.30/37, 77.71, 77.85, 78.02, 78.66, 79.05, 79.40 and 80.00, 80.22, 80.82, 81.34, 81.76, 82.01/22, 82.77, 83.09 and 83.77.
Support: 76.56, 76.32, 76.25, 76.14, 76.10, 75.94, 75.00 and 70.00 likely.
200-day MA: 80.63 and falling.
14-day RSI: 43.8 and falling.
GBP/USD:
Weekly Forecast: Higher, Short-Term Forecast: Lower
Resistance: 1.5499, 1.5577, 1.5632, 1.5685, 1.5705, 1.5745, 1.5839, 1.5867, 1.5883, 1.5912/19, 1.5951, 1.6000, 1.6037, 1.6081, 1.6130, 1.6204/06, 1.6252/59, 1.6332/47, 1.6434/52, 1.6500/98, 1.6616, 1.6720/1.6744, 1.6876 and 1.7040.
Support: 1.5483, 1.5422, 1.5373, 1.5343/55, 1.5326, 1.5293, 1.5123, 1.5000, 1.4947, 1.4872, 1.4785/97, 1.4500, 1.4474, 1.4345 and 1.4229.
200-day MA: 1.6123 and falling mildly.
14-day RSI: 30.4 and rising.
USD/CHF:
Weekly Forecast: Somewhat higher, Short-Term Forecast: Higher
Resistance: 0.9081, 0.9091, 0.9180, 0.9294, 0.9300, 0.9327, 0.9339, 0.9368, 0.9774/83, 0.9971, 0.9997, 1.0000 and 1.0065.
Support: 0.9000, 0.8994, 0.8979, 0.8918, 0.8883, 0.8873, 0.8797, 0.8788, 0.8728, 0.8646, 0.8622, 0.8536, 0.8239, 0.8000, 0.7992, 0.7805, 0.7768, 0.7708, 0.7606, 0.7500 and 0.7064.
200-day MA: 0.8804 and falling mildly.
14-day RSI: 71.2 overbought and rising.
AUD/USD:
Weekly Forecast: Higher, Short-Term Forecast: Lower
Resistance: 1.0296, 1.0310, 1.0347, 1.0360, 1.0373/96, 1.0473, 1.0481, 1.0511, 1.0564/70, 1.0599, 1.0624, 1.0633, 1.0659, 1.0683/93, 1.0718/26, 1.0763, 1.0784, 1.0909, 1.1000, 1.1010/15, 1.1064/79 and 1.1500.
Support: 1.0176, 1.0146, 1.0077, 1.0000, 0.9842/64, 0.9803, 0.9731, 0.9704, 0.9689, 0.9667, 0.9651, 0.9536/41, 0.9500, 0.9462, 0.9330, 0.9220, 0.9077, 0.9000, 0.8870, 0.8858, 0.8632, 0.8550 and 0.8066/81.
200-day MA: 1.0393 and rising mildly.
14-day RSI: 31.0 and falling.
USD/CAD:
Weekly Forecast: Lower, Short-Term Forecast: Higher
Resistance: 1.0322, 1.3047, 1.0360, 1.0372/79, 1.0490, 1.0500, 1.0506, 1.0646, 1.0669, 1.0742, 1.0756, 1.0785, 1.0853, 1.0868, 1.1000, and 1.1101/23.
Support: 1.0236, 1.0208, 1.0139, 1.0088, 1.0057, 1.0030, 1.0008, 0.9939/1.0030, 0.9828/77, 0.9763/96, 0.9734/39, 0.9724, 0.9686, 0.9645, 0.9567, 0.9526, 0.9496, 0.9448/56, 0.9422, 0.9405/09, 0.9056 and 0.9000.
200-day MA: 97.77 and flat.
14-day RSI: 70.3 overbought and rising.
NZD/USD:
Weekly Forecast: Higher, Short-Term Forecast: Lower
200-day MA: 0.7949 and rising.
14-day RSI: 26.9 oversold and falling.
Resistance:
0.7750/54, .07816, 0.7851, 0.7892, 0.7950/62, 0.8000/44, 0.8060/93, 0.8109/19, 0.8126/40, 0.8150/90, 0.8269/78, 0.8327/39, 0.8365/86, 0.8423, 0.8469/72, 0.8500, 0.8534/75, 0.8676.0.8764, 0.8793, 0.8841, 0.9000 and 0.9500.
Support:
0.7716, 0.7654/65, 0.7549, 0.7523, 0.7504, 0.7500, 0.7453, 0.7426, 0.7404, 0.7342, 0.7321, 0.7189, 0.7115, 0.7000 and 0.6945/62.
