Aug. 25 (Bloomberg) — Myron S. Scholes, Nobel laureate and professor at Stanford University’s Graduate School of Business, discusses Federal Reserve policy and the euro-area debt crisis. Scholes speaks from Lindau, Germany, with Maryam Nemazee on Bloomberg Television’s “The Pulse.”
Spier Says Jobs `One of the Greats of American Business’: Video
Aug. 25 (Bloomberg) — Guy Spier, chief executive officer of Aquamarine Capital LLC, talks about the resignation of Steve Jobs and the succession plan at Apple Inc. He speaks from Zurich with Francine Lacqua on Bloomberg Television’s “On the Move.” (Source: Bloomberg)
David Malpass Says Weakening Dollar `Horrible’ for U.S.
Aug. 25 (Bloomberg) — David Malpass, president and founder of Encima Global, talks about the U.S. dollar and outlook for Federal Reserve Chairman Ben S. Bernanke’s speech in Jackson Hole, Wyoming, tomorrow. He speaks with Matt Miller on Bloomberg Television’s “InsideTrack.” (Source: Bloomberg)
Robert Mundell Sees `Double-Dip Slowdown,’ No Recession
Aug. 25 (Bloomberg) — Robert Mundell, a Nobel laureate and professor of economics at Columbia University in New York, talks about the U.S. and European economies and Federal Reserve policy. He speaks from Lindau, Germany, with Francine Lacqua on Bloomberg Television’s “Countdown.” (Source: Bloomberg)
Kapur Sees Stocks Buying Opportunity Amid `Deep Panic’
Aug. 25 (Bloomberg) — Ajay Kapur, head of Asian equity strategy at Deutsche Bank AG, talks about the resignation of Apple Inc. Chief Executive Officer Steve Jobs, global equity markets and his investment strategy. Kapur speaks in Hong Kong with John Dawson, Haslinda Amin and Zeb Eckert. (Source: Bloomberg)
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Midweek Analysis: The Risk-On Trades Are Back
By Chris Vermeulen, thegoldandoilguy.com
The past month investors have been hit hard from the falling stock market. Those who owned gold and bonds have been rewarded. During times of economic fear which leads to selling of stock shares investors and traders find safety in gold and bonds. It was this surge of money coming out of stocks that propelled the price of gold and bonds sharply higher through-out this selloff.
On Sunday I warned subscribers that any day now gold should start to correct and there is potential for it to drop all the way back down to the $1640 – $1670 area depending how much of the recent buying volume was investment versus speculative money which will quickly sell out if prices began to fall.
Take a look at the intraday charts below to get a visual of how money is moving around the market and how economic fear plays a roll on investment decisions:
Seven Day 10 Minute Chart Pre-Market Selloff This Past July
Here you can see investors became fearful of the stock market/economic environment. Money started to get pulled out of the high risk (Risk On Trade) equities market and put to work in the Low risk (Risk Off Trade) to earn small but steady income and to help fight inflation (Gold & Bonds).
After this shift the stock market sold off very strong for a couple weeks before finding a bottom.
Three Day 10 Minute Chart Post-Market Selloff – Todays Prices
If you compare these two charts you will notice they are both opposites to each other…
Meaning money is now getting pulled out of the risk off (gold & bonds) and put to work in the potentially high yielding stocks (risk on).This could be the start of a big upside move starting to unfold and I will be keeping my eye on some charts for possible entry points like SPY and TBT.
Mid-Week Trading Conclusion:
In short, the overall market seems to be entering another pivot point. It is likely that another big move is brewing… After this type of technical damage on the charts and heightened fear/emotions out there, it may cause prices to trade sideways in a large trading rage for a few weeks still so I’m not getting overly excited just yet.
Consider joining us at TheGoldAndOilGuy for ETF trade ideas on the SP500, Oil, Gold, and Silver with great accuracy. Check us out at www.TheGoldAndOilGuy.com
Chris Vermeulen, thegoldandoilguy.com
P.S. – To read more about Chris check out the CountingPips interview with Chris Vermeulen here.
IDC’s Ma Says Apple to Dominate for Another Year or Two
Aug. 25 (Bloomberg) — Bryan Ma, associate vice president of client devices research at IDC, discusses Steve Jobs’s resignation as Apple Inc.’s chief executive officer. He speaks from Singapore with Linzie Janis on Bloomberg Television’s “First Look.” (Source: Bloomberg)
ZEW Report Gouges Swiss Economic Outlook
The Swiss economy has outperformed most of its regional neighbors and its currency, the franc (CHF), has undergone a meteoric rise over the past two years. Rumblings from within Switzerland, however, seem to show an economy teetering on the brink of a downturn.
The Swiss National Bank (SNB) recently debated ways to curb the franc’s rising strength, to no avail. Traders now see reports being published which show the Swiss economy getting gouged by their currency’s penalizing strength and appeal. The ZEW report from this morning was the latest in a series of data which showed Switzerland’s economy taking a beating. How much longer can the SNB hold out before it moves against the crushing weight of its own currency?
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British Realized Sales in Decline
This morning’s release of the Realized Sales report from the Confederation of British Industry (CBI) revealed an economy a little worse for wear. Although housing remains an increasingly stable sector of Britain’s economy, unemployment and consumer spending are lagging well behind. The Realized Sales report only highlighted this tension.
Expectations for this composite index were for a contraction to a reading of negative 10. The actual result showed a reading of negative 14 and paints a far more grim picture than was earlier assumed. The index does not contain an accurate picture of the entire British economy, only a portion of it, making it less impactful but nonetheless ominous.
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