Month: August 2011

Aug. 17 (Bloomberg) — Patrick Perret-Green, head of Asian foreign-exchange and rates strategy at Citigroup Inc., discusses the outlook for the Swiss franc and the European debt crisis. He speaks from Singapore with Mark Barton on Bloomberg Television’s “First Look.”

Video courtesy of ForexCT – A leading Australian forex broker, liscensed by the Australian Securities & Investments Commission, offers the MetaTrader4 and PROfit Platform to retail traders. Other services include Segregated Accounts, Trading workshops, Tutorials, and Commodities trading.

By ForexYard

The US economy will be publishing reports on PPI and crude oil inventories. Should today’s news disappoint, there is a possibility that more investment will get pushed towards the safety of the USD.

Economic News

USD – USD Sees Mild Rise as Euro Zone Slides

The US dollar (USD) was experiencing mild upswings yesterday as investors took recent signs of sluggish growth in Europe to mean a ramp up in the intensity of risk aversion. A weakened stock market yesterday was also behind the fueling of the USD’s gains seen against most major currency pairs.

With several reports from the American housing market being released yesterday, traders have begun to see a return of strength in the core assets of the American economy. Though housing comprises only a portion of US economic strength, it does impact the value of much else by way of home furnishings, retail sales, loans, lending, consumer sentiment and economic outlook. As such, yesterday’s uptick helped the greenback make gains during its already-growing value due to risk aversion.

With a heavy news day expected today, traders are sure to see a growth of portfolio adjustment as volatility becomes elevated. The US economy will be publishing reports on PPI and crude oil inventories. Should today’s news disappoint, there is a possibility that more investment will get pushed towards the safety of the USD.

GBP – British Unemployment Set for Review

The British pound (GBP) was seen trading with largely bearish results so far this week as traders continue to assess risk sentiment across the region. The Cable was seen trading bearish in late trading as shifts into the greenback, due to a swing away from global stocks and higher yielding assets helped lift the value of traditional safe havens.

News of debt contagion spreading across the euro zone also has several economists worried that a toppling of consumer confidence may be up next. Whether Great Britain is affected by this regional tug is a matter for speculation at the moment, however. Should today’s reports on inflation indicate a downturn in growth, and thus demand, there is a chance that traders will take the news to mean the pound sterling will meet further resistance in the near future.

On tap today, traders will witness the release of the significant reports on unemployment and hourly wages. The UK Claimant Count Change indicator measures the monthly change in the number of Britons applying for unemployment insurance for the first time. Alongside this indicator, the Bank of England (BOE) will release the latest results of a vote on monetary policy. Also, the quarterly report on average earnings will underline the employment data with the shift in personal income. Should these reports display dismal results, the GBP will likely fall through the remainder of the week.

AUD – AUD Still Bearish as Market Participants Seek Shelter

The Australian dollar (AUD) was trading mostly weaker versus its currency counterparts yesterday after data releases have begun to shift traders back into safety. The Aussie has been losing momentum these past few weeks as risk aversion becomes predominant in the global market. Fears emanating from the current market environment have led many to seek safety.

This movement has gouged the AUD against all of its currency rivals, especially against safe-havens like the Swiss franc (CHF) and Japanese yen (JPY). With significant reports being released this morning, forex traders are likely to see heavy movement by the Aussie in today’s trading hours. News out of Japan Monday is also expected to hike volatility throughout the Pacific countries of China, New Zealand and Australia. Pacific traders should be cautious in this week’s trading.

Oil – The Price of Crude Oil Dips Further

Crude Oil prices dipped slightly Monday as sentiment appeared to favor a mild downtick in global stocks following reports of monetary moves being made by several central banks. Data releases out of Europe and the US last week are still driving many investors back into safe-haven assets as many reports suggested a surprise downtick in growth among global industrial output and consumer spending.

An expected rise in dollar values due to this week’s risk sensitive environment has helped many investors ram up their short-taking positions on physical assets, but with the USD’s gains not materializing in large enough numbers, sentiment appears to have the price of crude oil falling mildly late Monday. Should Crude Oil sentiment continue to flatten this week, oil prices may reach a decision point which forces a wide swing by mid-week; direction is still unclear regarding the swing.

Technical News

EUR/USD

Despite the increased volatility the EUR/USD continues to trade in a defined range between 1.4400 and 1.4050. Falling monthly stochastics suggest any approaches to the 1.4400-1.4500 levels may be sold into. Initial resistance comes in at last week’s high of 1.4400 followed by the falling resistance line from the May high at 1.4450. A close above 1.4700 would signal an end to the range trading environment. To the downside support is found at 1.4050 followed by the 200-day moving average at 1.3945 and the rising trend line from June 2010 at 1.3875.

GBP/USD

Last week’s declines found support near the previously broken trend line from the April high and the pair looks to move higher. Resistance comes in at 1.6475; a level sterling has failed to breach three times. A move above here and the technical picture would likely turn bullish with further resistance at 1.6550 and 1.6745. The 200-day moving average at 1.6090 could keep any declines in check with further support at 1.6000 and 1.5935.

USD/JPY

The yen has made two attempts to break through the all-time low that was set in mid-March near 76.25. Rising stochastics on the daily and weekly charts point to potential gains in the pair but short term momentum studies look to have more room to fall before the pressure is relieved. Therefore, a break of 76.25 is favored. After this level there is a lack of support on the monthly chart. To the upside initial resistance is found at last week’s high of 78.50 followed by the post intervention high of 80.20.

USD/CHF

In an amazing run the USD/CHF has gone from a complete free-fall to trade above its 20-day moving average, a level the pair has not seen since early July. After gapping above its initial resistance at 0.7800 the pair could run into resistance at 0.8080 which is also near the 38% retracement from the February high, followed by the trend line that falls off of the February high at 0.8200. This may provide traders better reentry levels into the long term downtrend of the pair. A further resistance level is found out at 0.8550.

The Wild Card

S&P 500

A crossing of the 50-day moving average below the 200-day moving average is an ominous technical signal known as the “Death Cross” and hints at further bearishness in the stock index. Its counterpart the “Golden Cross” is a bullish signal and last occurred in mid-September, a prelude to a 6-month bullish run. Forex traders should note support is found at last week’s low of 1,076.75 followed by the August 2010 low of 1,037.

Forex Market Analysis provided by ForexYard.

© 2006 by FxYard Ltd

Disclaimer: Trading Foreign Exchange carries a high level of risk and may not be suitable for all investors. There is a possibility that you could sustain a loss of all of your investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with Foreign Exchange trading.

By James Smith

The United States has been experiencing a recent wave of cyber attacks from both Lulzsec and Anonymous, but recently there has been speculation that some of the transgressions may have been carried out by China. If this proves to be true, or if the United States posture against China because they believe they are under attack the USD will see a lot of trouble on the online forex exchange. China and the United States do enjoy a very close relationship when it comes to trade and money; however, if there should be a rift that arises between the two both economies would shatter. The US goes into a very large amount of debt where China is concerned every year, and it has not made a valid effort to pay back this debt as of yet.

China is becoming agitated at the apparent unwillingness of the US government to pay off its debts. This has caused a good deal of hostility towards purchasing more US debt as far as China is concerned. There has already been rumors of China selling off massive amounts of US treasury bonds and other securities, and if they sell enough there will be a lot of damage to the US dollar. The problem for China is that they must wait until they get rid of most of their US debt before a massive sell off. If China were to sell all the bonds they own at once then they would decrease in value and China would lose money, and this is the only reason the Chinese have not yet taken this course of action.

China and the United States are both in extremely difficult positions, and unfortunately there is no easy answer to the problem. The United States is going to have to absorb the debt they have gotten themselves into sooner or later, and if they do not then there are a good deal of possible consequences in store for them. Austerity measures must reach to new heights if the United States is ever going to pay off its debts and once again become a stable nation. If problems should arise between the US and China then the USD will see a lot of trouble on the horizon with regard to the online forex exchange. Current reports suggest that the United States suspects China of cyber attacks, but the Chinese are denying these reports vehemently.

About the Author

The author is a Forex trader and financial analyst residing in Denver, Colorado. To stay up to date on all the latest developments in the financial world and beyond be sure to stay up to date with the latest forex quotes.

The Swiss National Bank (SNB) made an additional announcement on measures to halt a strong Swiss franc (CHF), but did not mention a potential Euro currency-peg as rumored.  The SNB said “the Swiss franc remains massively overvalued” and “it aims to expand banks’ sight deposits at the SNB further, from CHF 120 billion to CHF 200 billion.  In order to achieve this new target level as quickly as possible, it will continue to repurchase outstanding SNB Bills and to employ foreign exchange swaps”.  The SNB also noted it if necessary it will “take further measures against the strength of the Swiss franc”.

At its most recent monetary policy meeting in June this year the Swiss National Bank maintained its main interest rate at 0.25%.  The Bank is forecasting inflation of 0.9% during 2011, while 2012 inflation is expected at 1% and 1.7% in 2013.  The CHF last traded around 0.78 against the USD, with the CHF surging almost 2 cents against the USD as market participants expected stronger measures, such as a temporary currency peg, however the exchange rate has come back since trading as low as 0.72 during the S&P US downgrade and ECB-SMP micro-panic.  The SNB also previously announced a series of moves on the 10th and 3rd of August aimed at limiting gains in the CHF.

Since the break-up of Sudan into two separate countries (North Sudan, and South Sudan), there have been a series of developments in central banking in the two countries as the process of building new nations gets underway.  The developments include the formation of a new central bank, the issuing of new currencies, and staffing changes.  The key facts in the timeline of post-secession Sudanese central banking are summarised below:

By Aaron Vast

As you know I have been trading for many years. I have found good forex brokerages and bad forex brokerages and in actual fact most of the bad ones with lousy customer service have been regulated brokers!

I like to be in control of my forex, I like to have “forex control”. Very simply I like a good platform, good customer service and above all the truth about who I am investing my money with.

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Metatrader – Metatrader brokers are everywhere, it is the most established forex trading platform and it has many expert advisors (EA’s) and bots that can be run to help your chances of making profitable forex trades.

Vertex – Vertex is almost identical to metatrader and although there are many more metrader brokers available, when you find a good Vertex broker you will see how similar the two platforms are.

When you are looking for forex brokers in india then you have two options, regulated or unregulated.

What I personally hate is forex brokers who say that they are in India, yet they don’t allow trading on the Indian CFD Markets. With my forex trading I like to be “in control”. Actually, if you do a search on the internet for “forex brokers india” you will come up with loads of sites and when you look closer at these forex website you will see actually they don’t allow trading in Indian CFD’s. It took me almost two weeks to find a forex broker in India that actually did allow trading in Indian CFD’s and on the Indian markets.

In fact the forex broker I found in India stacked up very nicely and provided Direct Execution in following CFD markets India, Singapore, Hongkong, Russia, Brazil, European Stock Exchanges, UK Stock Markets, NASDAQ, Dow jones. With a bonus of being able to trade Futures on Cbot,CME, Nymex, SGX, ICE.

Now the ultimate test of course is customer service! What I like about forex brokers in India, that provide their support from India is that if you pick the right one you will find that their support desks are extremely helpful and will assist you at all levels so you can trade more professionally.
I honestly believe forex brokers in India are now giving forex brokers in Europe and Asia and real run for their money.

About the Author

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USDJPY traded in a narrow range between 76.29 and 77.19. Another fall to test 76.29 support is still possible, a breakdown below this level could signal resumption of the long term downtrend. Resistance is at 77.19, only break above this level will indicate that the downward move from 80.23 has completed at 76.30 already, then the following upward movement could bring price back to 79.00-79.50 area.

Daily Forex Analysis

In trading on Tuesday, air services shares were relative laggards, down on the day by about 2.5%. Helping drag down the group were shares of Echo Global Logistics (ECHO), down about 4.9% and shares of Zipcar (ZIP) down about 4.7% on the day.

Aug. 16 (Bloomberg) — Jay Bryson, senior global economist at Wells Fargo Securities LLC, talks about plans by German Chancellor Angela Merkel and French President Nicolas Sarkozy for closer euro-area economic integration as they strive to stamp out the region’s debt crisis. Bryson speaks with Lisa Murphy on Bloomberg Television’s “Fast Forward.” (Source: Bloomberg)