A dramatic decline in US equities led to safe-haven buying of US Treasuries and the USD. A combination of global growth concerns and a lack of confidence in the new European bailout have increased market tensions to their highest levels since the financial crisis of 2008. The USD along with the yen and Swiss franc were well bid with the S&P 500 falling 4.78% yesterday. The yen and franc gains are a surprise given the intervention undertaken over the past 48 hours by the SNB and the BoJ. A tumultuous week will end with the non-farm payrolls report which may highlight a continued weak US macro picture.
Today’s Key Economic Events:
USD – Non-Farm Employment change – 12:30 GMT
Expectations: 89K. Previous: 18K.
Last month’s NFP report came in well below economists’ aggressive forecasts close to 100K. Today’s unemployment data release has more grounded consensus expectations. A strong NFP number may help to shore up deteriorating market sentiment and boost riskier, higher yielding currencies. A disappointing result could see similar trading conditions as yesterday with falling equity prices and a move to the USD. EUR/USD support comes in at 1.4050 at the bottom of the channel line. A break here could test the 200-day moving average at 1.3940 followed by the long term rising trend line from 2010 at 1.3840. Resistance is found at the overnight high of 1.4140 and the top of the channel line on the daily chart at 1.4340.
CAD – Ivey PMI – 14:00 GMT
Expectations: 61.5. Previous: 68.2.
A sharp pullback in the survey underlines a hesitant business climate in Canada. GDP was flat in Q2 and increasing inflation may force the BOC to begin raising interest rates. However, the “risk-off” environment has weighed on the Loonie with the USD/CAD rising to its 200-day moving average at 0.9820, an important technical level that has proven to be resistive in the past. Additional resistance is located at 0.9910 with support at 0.9775 followed by the 100-day moving average at 0.9650. Should today’s economic data be more upbeat the CAD will largely benefit.
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