Month: July 2011

July 13 (Bloomberg) — Ron William, a technical strategist at MIG Bank, discusses the outlook for the U.S. dollar and euro. William speaks with Linzie Janis on Bloomberg Television’s “Countdown.”

Video courtesy of ForexCT – A leading Australian forex broker, liscensed by the Australian Securities & Investments Commission, offers the MetaTrader4 and PROfit Platform to retail traders. Other services include Segregated Accounts, Trading workshops, Tutorials, and Commodities trading.

By ForexYard

Federal Reserve Board Chairman Ben Bernanke will be testifying before the House Financial Services Committee in Washington, D.C. at 15:00 GMT today. His remarks tend to generate significant volatility in the forex market as they may hint at future monetary policy moves by the Fed.

Economic News

USD – Bullish USD Gathers Strength alongside Market Pessimism

The US dollar has been increasing since late last week as traders appear to be seeking shelter following speculation that the global economy is slowing and economic recovery may experience setbacks as the year progresses. Fears of debt contagion in Europe as well as recent inflationary sluggishness in the UK are only the latest in a string of reports that paint an ominous economic picture.

The news so far has sent the EUR/USD towards 1.4000, with 1.3900 eyed should the price break beyond that trend line. With the economies of Europe, the UK, and the US publishing several impactful news items yesterday, traders witnessed a massive surge towards safety as Britain’s CPI figures disappointed, similar data from France and Germany witnessed very little growth, and the US trade deficit breached a 2-and-a-half year high.

With another heavy news day expected today, traders are sure to see a continuation of portfolio adjustment as volatility remains elevated. The US economy will be publishing data on its federal budget balance, import pricing, and crude oil inventories. Federal Reserve Board Chairman Ben Bernanke will also be testifying before the House Financial Services Committee in Washington, D.C. today. His remarks tend to generate volatility as they may hint at future monetary policy moves by the Fed.

GBP – UK Inflationary Figures Place Pressure on Today’s Employment News

Forex traders interested in the strength of the British pound sterling (GBP) this week have noticed a subtle shift away from the island currency as news of sluggish inflation began to increase the structural debt and employment woes affecting the region. With Italy’s economy being eyed with concern over a potential bailout becoming necessary, structural deficiencies are becoming intensified in the current debate.

Such news was also intensified by the UK’s weaker than expected inflationary figures mentioned above. The CPI and Core CPI reports from the British Office of National Statistics noted a marked fall from what was forecast by economists. The concomitant reports on RPI and DCLG’s HPI were also below expectations, adding to fears that growth may be seeing the beginning of a stagnating period. The unexpected rise in the nation’s trade deficit also added to these concerns.

As such, traders appear to have grown more concerned about how data such as today’s employment reports will affect the recent morass building behind this week’s market outlook. If the UK’s Claimant Count Change report reveals a deeper infliction of unemployment claims than previously thought, the news could send the GBP reeling as investors flee risk. The earnings index may also show that fewer companies are hiring or raising wages, which speaks to a yet deeper structural deficiency in the employment sector.

JPY – Japanese Yen Remains Bullish as Risk-Taking Subsides

The Japanese yen (JPY) was trading stronger versus most of its currency counterparts yesterday after several data releases have shifted traders back into safety since late last week. The yen has been gathering momentum these past few weeks as risk aversion became predominant in the global market following news of Greece’s debt woes, a global manufacturing slump, and rising energy costs. Fears of a debt contagion spreading from Greece to Italy also now factor greatly into risk assessment.

This movement has helped lift the yen against all of its currency rivals, including other safe-havens like the US dollar (USD). The steady, and dovish, monetary policy of the Bank of Japan (BOJ) feeds the yen’s appeal as investors find its low yield as an affective store of value. The rate statement released by the BOJ yesterday morning did not change much of this sentiment as rates were kept at their all-time low. Traders appear to be anticipating a continuation of the JPY’s appeal as a defense against unwanted risk.

Oil – As USD Pares Gains, Oil Rebounds

Crude Oil prices found mild support Tuesday as sentiment appeared to favor a downturn in the value of the USD from a minor uptick in EUR values. Data released out of Europe and the US last week are still driving many investors back into safe-haven assets as many reports suggested a surprise downtick in growth among global industrial output and consumer spending.

As investors sought safety, the value of crude oil, which has been seen rising since the middle of last week, fell to a weekly low of $95.60 a barrel on Monday, only to be supported and reaching back above $96 on Tuesday. A sudden jump in dollar values due to this week’s risk averse environment has helped many investors ram up their short-taking positions on physical assets, but yesterday’s temporary downswing has so far helped lift oil prices throughout the New York trading session. Should Crude Oil sentiment hold steady this week, oil prices may continue to see such sideways movement.

Technical News

EUR/USD

After a false breakout higher from the triangle chart pattern the EUR/USD is approaching the rising support line off of the May low at 1.4160. Falling daily and monthly stochastics suggest the next move will be to the downside. A break here and the next major support is found at 1.3970. The 200-day moving average at 1.3905 may also prove supportive. Below this key technical mile marker the rising trend line from the 2010 May low comes in at 1.3710 and traders may see buying interest at this level. To the upside the July 7th high at 1.4370 could be supportive, as well as the falling resistance off of the May and July highs at 1.4530. A close above the June high at 1.4700 would likely signal a shift in momentum to the upside.

GBP/USD

Cable is caught in a 220 pip range as the pair struggles to stay above its 200-day moving average and its initial support at 1.5910. A move lower and the next support to enter the picture stands at the late January low of 1.5750, not far from the 38% Fibonacci retracement from the 2010 May to 2011 April move. Support is also found at 1.5650 which has served as both support and resistance in October and in December of last year. The consolidation pattern is capped at 1.6140 where the neckline from a head and shoulders pattern rests. For traders who are not yet short this would be a point from which to sell a potential rally. The head and shoulders reversal chart pattern shows a measured move which could take the GBP/USD lower to 1.5370.

USD/JPY

A series of higher highs and lower lows has created a bullish channel on the daily chart but the pair will likely remain locked in a range that has contained the USD/JPY since early June. A number of resistance levels will provide ample opportunities to sell into any gains, a play that is in-line with the long-term trend. The top of the channel is found at 81.50 and is close to the 100-day moving average. Additional resistance is located at the May high of 82.20 and the falling trend line from the 2007 high comes in at 82.80. The bottom of the channel could prove to be supportive at 80.45 but a break here could test the May low at 79.50.

USD/CHF

The daily chart provides an interesting technical picture for the Swissie. The pair is flirting with its 50-day moving average at 0.8550, a technical indicator the pair has not traded above since February. A potential head and shoulders bottom reversal may also be forming with the neckline falling from the mid-June highs and the high from July 1st. A measured move from the pattern suggests potential gains of 260 pips and a reversal would likely target the mid-May lows at 0.8755 and the March 16th spike lower which is also a Fibonacci retracement target at 0.8845.

The Wild Card

Gold

Spot gold prices have drawn a safe-haven bid, rising in step with the increased tensions from the euro zone. Yesterday’s appreciation of $3.40 took the commodity above the $1,557 resistance and the price of spot gold is encroaching on the May all-time high at $1,576. Forex traders may note a breach at this resistance and spot gold prices will likely test the next big round number at $1,600.

Forex Market Analysis provided by ForexYard.

© 2006 by FxYard Ltd

Disclaimer: Trading Foreign Exchange carries a high level of risk and may not be suitable for all investors. There is a possibility that you could sustain a loss of all of your investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with Foreign Exchange trading.

The Bank of Thailand increased its benchmark 1-day bond repurchase rate by 25 basis points to 3.25% from 3.00%.  Bank of Thailand Assistant Governor, Mr. Paiboon Kittisrikangwan, said: “In light of the continued risks to inflation amid robust domestic demand, the MPC deemed it necessary to continue increasing the policy rate to maintain economic stability and anchor inflation expectations.”  The Bank also said: “Inflationary pressure remained high due to elevated energy prices and continued upward adjustments in the prices of prepared foods.”

By Harjeet

Education in India is primarily handled by the government. The government’s large Union Budget outlays allot sufficient funds for setting up school infrastructure in the country. Elementary education is guaranteed to every child between the age of 6 and 14 years and whatever possible is being done to improve the quality of education and increase access to education for every child. Since the Eleventh Five-Year Plan greater emphasis is given to the quality of education in India.

Poor quality education reduces academic achievement by the students and lack of proper training in soft skills reduces their employability opportunities. Steps taken by the government to improve quality and access to education in India include programmes such as Sarva Shiksha Abhiyan (SSA), Mid-day meal schemes and Kasturba Gandhi Balika Vidyalayas. These schemes emphasise on increasing the number of schools to provide access to a larger population, and on improving infrastructure of existing and new schools by providing greater amenities and building more classrooms.

Increasing enrolment rates and reducing dropouts and gender inequality are two other aspects which the government of India aims to lay stress on. Recruitment of quality teachers forms one of the most important aspects of consolidating the education sector in India. These teachers also need to be properly trained to impart education more effectively to children.

Private-Public Partnership
The task is so enormous in a country of India’s size and population that the government has to turn to Public-Private Partnership (PPP) to run the schemes effectively. The PPP initiative will be primarily used to provide IT-based education to a majority of India’s student population. Private companies will contribute by providing infrastructure in the form of computer labs and content at government schools. It will also train teachers how to use their content and infrastructure. Training is also being provided to the teachers to enhance their education imparting capabilities.

Soft skills
Soft skills such as communication, IT skills, computer proficiency etc are also very important in making a student employable. Private enterprises are coming forward in this area and providing short and medium-term courses and induction trainings. Many organizations like Everonn and NIIT are coming out with innovative approaches to get a share of the market.

This, however, is not enough, and more involvement of the private sector is called for. According to a NASSCOM report, there will be a requirement for 2.3mn IT professionals by 2011 and a shortage of 5, 00,000 personnel required. Therefore, it is more important to emphasise on quality of education in India, rather than the number of educated students. This reflects the strong growth potential that the IT Training Industry has and its ever-increasing relevance for the IT Sector.

Problem areas
The large sizes of classes in private schools prevent teachers from giving individual attention to students. This results in considerable waste of time, effort and money. Companies like Educomp and Everonn have introduced innovative products which would solve this problem. These are online products, available 24/7, and do not require the student to travel to the location where the classes are held. However, these products require broadband connectivity, the availability of which is very poor in India. India’s broadband penetration has to improve substantially to make these products successful.

About the Author

Harjeet is an Indian – born mass-market novelist, who covers the world internet related topics . He writes columns and articles for various websites and internet journals in the domain of Investing in India and Investment Sectors.

By China Research and Intelligence

www.cri-report.com – The common animal vaccines at present are mainly applied in such mammals as pigs, cattle, sheep and bird species. In fact, fish and other aquatic products are also in demand for vaccines.

In 2009, the number of fattening pigs was over 640 million, that of flattening cattle over 40 million, and that of flattening poultries over 11 billion in China. In addition, large numbers of poultry eggs and over 12 million dairy cows were cultivated. In China, the breeding stock and fattened stock of pigs, cattle, sheep and other major domesticated animals essentially remain the growth rate of over 5%. It follows that the farmed animals requiring massive immunization are in huge number.

As the production of Chinese animal husbandry is changed from scattered mode to intensive and unified prevention mode, China is rapidly developing in the biological product industry based on veterinary vaccines. Currently, domestic veterinary vaccines are divided into FMD (Foot and mouth, abbr. FMD) vaccines, influenza vaccines, PRRS(Porcine Reproductive and Respiratory Syndrome, abbr. PRRS) vaccines, etc. As to the biotechnology, vaccines are divided into W vaccines, inactivated vaccines, live vaccines, influenza vaccines, etc.

In China, the animal vaccine industry is regarded as the gold mine of the capital market. The reason why the animal vaccine industry is expected lies in the large number of immune animals, far exceeding that of immune people; among up to hundreds of species of animal diseases, 70% are co-infected by human and animals-; the diseases spread more easily after the large-scale farming is improved, which raises the demand for vaccines; national subsidies and appropriation continue increasing; polyvalent vaccines replace the product up-gradation of monovalent vaccines; new products like pet vaccines amplify the vaccine market.

In 2009, the scale of China’s animal vaccine market was about CNY4.50 billion (USD740 million), increasing by more than 40% over 2008. It is predicted that in the next few years China’s vaccine industry will maintain a growth rate of 20-30% per year.

In general, with years of development of China’s veterinary vaccines, a relatively complete vaccine engineering system with complete vaccine product varieties has been formed. China, as one of the best stock farming countries, sees an increasing number of raised domestic animals, which has brought a greater rate of growth in the R&D of veterinary vaccines. With the increase of the intensification of livestock rearing, the vaccines related to diseases of respiratory tract, gastrointestinal tract and reproductive system have always been the focus of economic veterinary vaccines. With the increase of the intensification of livestock rearing and people’s concern about food safety, the veterinary vaccine market will continue the steady growth trend.

This report has acquired a lot of valuable first-hand information through interviews and other means, and has quoted rich secondary sources of the Chinese Customs, trade associations, etc.

The following and more information can be acquired from this report:
– Government policy environment of Chinese animal vaccines
– Current situation of China’s animal vaccine market
– Current situation of China’s animal vaccine technology
– China’s import and export situation of animal vaccines
– The development of China’s animal vaccine sub-industries
– Major enterprises of China’s animal vaccine industry and their operations
– Competition in China’s animal vaccine market
– Prospects for the development of China’s animal vaccine industry

The following persons are advised to buy this report:
– Animal vaccine manufacturers
– Animal vaccines trading enterprises
– Farming enterprises
– Animal vaccine research institutions
– Investors focusing on China’s animal vaccine industry

To get more details, please go to http://www.cri-report.com/97-research-report-on-china-s-animal-vaccine-industry-2011-2012.html

About the Author

www.cri-report.com

USDCHF is facing 0.8275 previous low support, a breakdown below this level will indicate that the longer term downtrend from 0.9774 (Feb 11 high) has resumed, then further fall towards 0.8000 could be seen. Initial resistance is at 0.8400, above this level will indicate that lengthier consolidation of the downtrend is underway, and delay the resumption of downtrend.

Daily Forex Forecast

July 12 (Bloomberg) — Jeremy Siegel, professor of finance at the University of Pennsylvania’s Wharton School, talks about the outlook for U.S. stocks, the economy and Federal Reserve policy. He speaks with Carol Massar and Matt Miller on Bloomberg Television’s “Street Smart.” (Source: Bloomberg)

The markets pared some of it’s gains from earlier in the day, as investors continue to keep an eye on the European debt crisis and uncertainty lingers over whether or not the US debt ceiling will be raised. Shares of Cisco (CSCO) are trading up today, despite news of possible job cuts.

Tim Top Notch Haefke, Top Notch Trading – Dangerous trade at hand. Lower highs and higher lows for the s&p.