By CountingPips.com
The latest Commitments of Traders (COT) report, released on Friday by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), showed that large futures speculators raised their bets against the US dollar after betting in favor of the dollar the past few weeks. Non-commercial futures positions, those taken by hedge funds and large speculators, were overall net short the US dollar by $15.08 billion against the other major currencies as of July 5th, according to a report published by Reuters.
Last week’s data is an increase from the total short position of $12.44 billion registered on June 28th, according to the CFTC COT data and calculations by Reuters which calculates the dollar positions against the euro, British pound, Japanese yen, Australian dollar, Canadian dollar and the Swiss franc.
This week’s notable changes were British pound sterling positions declining sharply lower on the short side to the lowest position since July 2010 while Mexican peso positions rose sharply after a few weeks of settling at the lowest levels since September 2010.
ForexCycle.com – EURUSD continues its downward move from 1.4577, and the fall extended to as low as 1.4197. Resistance is at 1.4305 followed by 1.4375, as long as these levels hold, downtrend could be expected to continue, and next target would be at 1.4100-1.4150 area.
Central Bank News – This report outlines where inflation is tracking in countries where the central bank has an inflation target. Central Bank News has compiled a table of countries/central banks that have publicly announced an official inflation target. In some cases the target is a government target, but in many cases it is one of the central bank’s key performance indicators.
Elliott Wave International – When Ralph Nelson Elliott discovered the Wave Principle nearly 70 years ago, he explained how social (or crowd) behavior trends and reverses in recognizable patterns. You can learn to identify these patterns as they unfold in the financial markets, and use them to help anticipate where prices will go next.
The chanting may be louder and the protests more violent but like Greece, the UK is suffering through its own austerity program. However, unlike Greece which is having restraint forced upon it in exchange for emergency funding from the European Union, the UK is engaging in a self-imposed program of spending cuts and tax hikes in an attempt to balance its budget.
The past week in monetary policy saw interest rate decisions from 14 central banks around the world, of which 7 made changes in their monetary policy settings. Those that increased interest rates were: Sweden +25bps to 2.00%, China +25bps to 6.56%, the EU +25bps to 1.50%, and Denmark +25bps to 1.55%. While those that cut rates included Vietnam, which cut its OMO rate -100bps to 14.00%, and Ghana -50bps to 12.50%.
You can find low-risk, high-probability trading opportunities by trading with the trend. The trick is to find the end of market corrections, so you can position yourself for the next move in the direction of the trend.