Month: June 2011

Yesterday’s anticipation of Japanese retail sales data gave a tinge of pessimism regarding the island economy’s ability to post gains amid this sluggish period. That pessimism was defeated this morning as Japan managed to post retail sales data that was better than forecast.

Japan’s consumer sector is still in a decline, of sorts, but this morning’s news underlines the rapid pace with which the country is addressing its economic reconstruction. The effect has been positive for the Japanese yen (JPY) so far, with mild gains seen across the board.

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Video courtesy of ForexCT – A leading Australian forex broker, liscensed by the Australian Securities & Investments Commission, offers the MetaTrader4 and PROfit Platform to retail traders. Other services include Segregated Accounts, Trading workshops, Tutorials, and Commodities trading.

Can Apple’s iCloud Save Hollywood?

by Tony D’Altorio, Investment U Research
Tuesday, June 28, 2011

In recent years, the bright lights of Hollywood dimmed as its revenue declined, thanks in large part to the advent of new technologies.

Income streams from sales of CDs and DVDs slowed to a trickle thanks to the streaming of media via the internet and companies like Netflix (Nasdaq: NFLX). Netflix is now the largest subscription entertainment company in the United States. It has over 23.6 million subscribers and accounts for 30 percent of all internet downloads in the United States during peak hours.

The technology Hollywood believed could help them – 3-D films – is a flop: Audiences are put off by the high ticket prices.

But now, as if from a Hollywood movie, another technology has appears on the horizon – the cloud. And it could be the technology that saves Hollywood…

The Cloud Creates a New Income Stream for Hollywood

Industry executives believe that cloud computing heralds the latest sweeping change to consumers’ behavior.

They see the cloud as the first technology product that holds the promise of enhancing the industry’s revenue rather than destroying it. It represents an opportunity, instead of a threat.

One reason for executives’ optimism is the income stream already received. Netflix and Hulu are already writing large checks for Hollywood’s content.

• Companies like Amazon (Nasdaq: AMZN), Wal-Mart (NYSE: WMT), Microsoft (Nasdaq: MSFT) and Sony (NYSE: SNE) are also in the market for content.

• As are cable firms such as Comcast (Nasdaq: CMCSK). Cable companies are increasing their on-demand services for subscribers, which requires more content, as they try to combat the threat posed by companies like Netflix.

• Apple (Nasdaq: AAPL) will also be writing checks to Hollywood in the not-too-distant future once it implements its own movie-streaming service, which will be part of its recently-announced iCloud online entertainment service.Apple’s unable to get its iCloud movie service going because several major movie studios are tied up with HBO, which is owned by Time Warner (NYSE: TWX). The HBO agreement does not allow for continuous movie availability for streaming services.

Hollywood Content Holds Power Over Cloud Distributors

As the aforementioned companies, and others, fight to control the distribution of film and television programming – the power falls in the hands of the content providers.

As Anthony DiClemente, an analyst at Barclays Capital, stated, it “bodes well” for the pricing power of Hollywood studios, which provide the content.

He based his analysis on the improving conditions in the music industry, another one of the cloud’s possible content providers.

The music industry’s response to Apple’s iCloud music service was positive, most likely due to Apple’s generous terms, which would give them 70 percent of iCloud’s music revenue.

Apple’s iCloud music service prompted both Amazon and Google (Nasdaq: GOOG) to roll out similar services. Record industry executives hope to use the agreement with Apple as a standard in their negotiations with Amazon and Google.

Can Apple Save Hollywood?

Hollywood’s fortune seems to be turning around, as it looks like content providers will be the kings of the cloud.

Meanwhile, distributors like Netflix will be left in a mad scramble, trying to outbid each other for the right to distribute Hollywood’s content.

The only question remaining for Hollywood is: How deep are the pockets of the content distributors? Can they continue making lucrative bids for content from Hollywood studios and still remain profitable?

Questions already swirl around Netflix and its business model, making Apple’s entrance into the fray that much more important for Hollywood – ensuring that Hollywood has at least one deep-pocketed distributor for its content who will be there for years to come.

Good investing,

Tony D’Altorio

The greenback was up albeit slightly versus the euro and rest of the majors as the Greek austerity vote approaches. A bounce higher in the euro may occur should the Greek parliament approve the additional tax increases, spending cuts, and asset sales. This afternoon US housing and consumer confidence data will be released which could continue to support the dollar until tomorrow’s Greek vote.

Early support for the euro faded while European banks squabble over an extension of the maturities for Greek debt. French banks have the largest exposure to Greek debt and yesterday released their suggestions which would call for a 30-year extension of the debt, similar to the Brady bond plan that was initiated in Latin American. A 48-hour general strike in Greece is also not supporting the euro as participants take to the streets of Athens to protest the austerity package. Previous protests have turned violent; such was the case on June 15th when the euro shed 1.9%. Today’s selling has been lighter as expectations are for the austerity measures to pass parliament tomorrow. This could give the euro a short term bounce to resistance at last week’s high of 1.4440 followed by 1.4500. To the downside the current consolidation pattern is found at 1.4110. A break here might have scope to the May low at 1.3970.

Sterling was lower after a host of negative factors underline the recent weakness of the pound. The Q1 current account showed a larger than expected deficit. The Q4 2010 numbers were also revised to show a greater trade deficit and underscored the report’s negative tone. BOE MPC member Adam Posen spoke for greater BOE independence as he lashed out at yesterday’s Bank of International Settlements report that called for an increase in UK interest rates. Posen called the report’s advice “nonsense.” UK Q1 GDP went unchanged and remained at a tepid 0.5% increase. The negative data, bearish comments, and low growth numbers all underscore the reasons for sterling’s recent weakness.

Turning towards the US trading session the S&P/Case-Shiller index is expected to show further declines in US housing prices, a factor that is not likely to change in the near-term. Also due out are US consumer confidence numbers which are expected to remain the same. Disappointing data could feed into additional USD buying but market participants will be more focused on the outcome of the Greek Austerity vote. This could keep the majors in their current ranges for the meanwhile.

Read more forex trading news on our forex blog.

Video courtesy of ForexCT – A leading Australian forex broker, liscensed by the Australian Securities & Investments Commission, offers the MetaTrader4 and PROfit Platform to retail traders. Other services include Segregated Accounts, Trading workshops, Tutorials, and Commodities trading.

Source: ForexYard

Regional investors are expecting a technical downturn for the pound this week after several reports showed the currency breaking out of a long-term bullish channel. Lying behind the turning point is several months’ worth of bearish manufacturing reports and a concern that inflation may become flattened out through the summer with analysts calling for a sluggish second quarter.

Economic News

USD – USD Dips as Investors Await CB Consumer Confidence Data

The US dollar was seen in decline in trading yesterday as traders began to seek risk after a solid US stock market open. The EUR/USD was seen moving towards 1.4275 yesterday before settling mildly below this mark at day’s close. The GBP/USD was also in a bullish channel, with a high of 1.6002 touched prior to getting tested by technical traders and finishing mildly lower than its daily high.

Yesterday’s bullish consumer inflation data out of the American economy has so far helped to lift the value of riskier assets as investors seek higher growth in their portfolios. The EUR, GBP, and SEK were each appreciating against the US dollar throughout Monday’s session, with mild downturns coming towards the day’s closing.

With a heavy news day expected, traders are sure to see heightened volatility. Most significantly, the US economy will be publishing its CB Consumer Confidence report alongside an S&P/CS Composite-20 HPI figure. Analysts are expecting no change in consumer confidence from last month, but bearish sentiment is getting priced-in to the house price index by S&P and Case-Shiller. If risk appetite continues to grow ahead of the vote on Greece’s austerity budget, we may see the USD continue to decline.

GBP – British Macro-Economic Data on Tap

The British pound (GBP) was seen trading with mixed results yesterday following news of heightened risk appetite across the region as well as inflation and manufacturing concerns in the United Kingdom. The UK Office for National Statistics is set to publish several data reports today, focusing intently on the macro side of the British economy.

Regional investors are expecting a technical downturn for the pound this week after several reports showed the currency breaking out of a long-term bullish channel. Lying behind the turning point is several months’ worth of bearish manufacturing reports and a concern that inflation may become flattened out through the summer. A deep-seated structural deficit in the UK jobs market also carries some of the blame.

Today’s macro data will help many forex investors get a feel for how well the structural challenges in the UK labor market have been addressed and whether the island economy will see growth this quarter. Final British gross domestic product (GDP) figures will get published at 9:30 GMT today alongside the latest reading on the country’s Current Account, a measure which reports on the difference between imports and exports. The Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) of the governor of the Bank of England (BOE) will be testifying on the state of the economy and inflationary expectations. Overall, traders appear to be anticipating bearish pressure on the pound.

JPY – Japanese Retail Sales in Focus

The Japanese yen has undergone swings between bullish and bearish since late last week as traders attempt to get a feel for global risk appetite. By focusing on the Japanese economy itself today, many investors appear tuned in to go long on the JPY out of an expectant growth on the consumer side of the equation with the country’s retail sales report.

The Japanese economy has witnessed a sharp downturn in retail sales, year-on-year, since back in April, when it dropped over 8%. Each month since, the nation has halved this decline, with only a 4% decline in May and expectations for a 2% drop in June.

If the early morning data can meet or exceed this forecast, traders may see a silver lining in Japan’s currently bleak economic landscape. Given the sluggishness of the global manufacturing sector, however, many economists have expressed pessimism that Japan will meet the negative 2% target. Such a result could lead to heightened risk aversion and also feed into the yen, albeit for different reasons.

Oil – Crude Oil Price Decline Halts as EUR Finds Footing

Crude Oil prices dropped sharply towards $92 a barrel Monday as sentiment appeared to favor a downturn in global industry. The sudden halt to this downward movement came as a result of several forces Tuesday morning. Primarily leading the rebound in oil prices was a sense that risk appetite was on the rise and a favorable vote for an austerity budget in Greece could whip traders back into a buying frenzy on high-growth assets like oil.

Faltering dollar values may have also helped many investors pause on their short-taking positions on physical assets. Crude Oil witnessed a mild uptick in yesterday’s late sessions while Gold and Silver began to largely see sideways movement. Should sentiment hold steady this week, oil prices may continue to find support near its current price, but with reluctance and weakness underlining any upward movement.

Technical News

EUR/USD

Momentum has now turned lower as falling stochastics appear on the monthly, weekly, and daily charts. Initial support comes in at the June low of 1.4075 and the May low of 1.3970. A break here and technical traders will target the 200-day moving average at 1.3860. While the 8 cent decline from the May high is a sharp drop, traders should keep in mind that the correction the pair is currently undergoing is just that, a correction. Buyers may be lurking at the rising trend line from the June 2010 low. Resistance comes in at the recent high of 1.4440 where the 50-day and 20-day moving averages are floating.

GBP/USD

The pair has broken a significant technical barrier at the neckline from a head and shoulders pattern which measures a target at 1.5370. Monthly and weekly stochastics are turning lower so traders may expect further declines. Support is located at the March low at 1.5935 followed by the late January low at 1.5750. To the upside the neckline from the head and shoulders pattern at 1.6120 could offer traders a level to enter short as many times in a head and shoulders chart pattern the pair will revert back to the neckline only to head lower from there.

USD/JPY

Yen bears are making a stand at the 80 level. A previously broken trend line from the April high comes in at this level and will also support the bears. However, once this last bastion of support is broken the fallout could be similar the price action in March. Should the move higher continue, resistance is found at 81 and 81.75.

USD/CHF

The previous resistance at 0.8550 held and the all-time low at 0.8325 is continually being pressured so a break here may be in the works. An absence of supports or trend lines below this level makes it difficult to predict how low the pair could go.

The Wild Card

Silver

Spot silver prices have taken a turn lower after breaking below the short term trend line where support smartly turned into a resistance level. This may signal a short term top in the commodity. After four consecutive days of declines forex traders could target the May low at $32.30 with further support located at $31.70.

Forex Market Analysis provided by ForexYard.

© 2006 by FxYard Ltd

Disclaimer: Trading Foreign Exchange carries a high level of risk and may not be suitable for all investors. There is a possibility that you could sustain a loss of all of your investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with Foreign Exchange trading.

A return of the European debt crisis combined with expectations of slowing global growth has broadly supported dollar over the past month. Should the Greek parliament approve the additional austerity measures USD strength may to wane in line with the longer term trends of the FX markets. However, in the near-term higher yielding currencies such as the AUD, NZD, and CAD could face headwinds should commodity prices continue to decline along with a further deterioration in the already sluggish US economic data.

Economic Data Releases:

GBP – Current Account – 08:30 GMT
Expectations: -5.0B. Previous: -10.5B.
UK trade data is expected to show an improvement in Q1 of this year and may support sterling in the short term. Unfortunately the effect of last week’s UK MPC meeting minutes that opened the door for additional asset purchases may void the pound from maintaining any near term gains. Today’s inflation report hearings at 09:00 GMT may also touch on the downside risks to inflation. On the charts 1.5880 is the 61.8% retracement from the January to April high. Below that the next support is the late January low at 1.5750. Resistance comes in at 1.6100.

USD – CB Consumer Confidence – 13:00 GMT
Expectations: 60.8. Previous: 60.8.
No change is expected in the US consumer confidence numbers as the drop in oil prices may not have trickled down yet to the US consumers’ wallets. EUR/USD resistance may be found at the 1.4350 where the current consolidation pattern rests while support is found at 1.4070 and 1.3970.

Read more forex trading news on our forex blog.

The decline in commodity prices has begun to make headlines after the IEA’s release of strategic reserves shocked the crude oil market while dragging spot crude oil prices lower by 4.6% on Thursday. Could additional weakness in commodity prices be on the way following the declines during the months of April and May? After the recent downturn in US data growth factors face major headwinds. Therefore the economic data releases from the G7 nations this coming week may carry further significance.

Greece will also be a headline for next week as the next austerity vote is scheduled for Tuesday. Last week George Papandreou survived a no confidence vote by only 5 voices as the vote was split down party lines. Given the potentially negative effects the austerity measures may have on Greek society as a whole, the next vote may prove to be more challenging as Papandreou will face harsh criticism from both the political opposition his own PASOK party and Greek protesters.

Key to the Greek situation is a plan for a voluntary debt roll over in return for the second Greek bailout. EU/IMF authorities face a formidable challenge to convince a number of parties to come aboard. How officials will entice private holders of Greek debt has yet to be unveiled. Rating agencies have taken a firm stance against any restructuring and have pledged to classify an increase in maturity lengths as a credit event. The ECB is also not yet onboard and has refused to allow restructured Greek debt to be used in its liquidity provisions.

US budget talks are beginning to heat up following the Republican decision to walk out of talks with Democrats on Thursday. This may set up a final confrontation to be hashed out by the key players of the political parties; President Obama and Republican leaders John Boehner and Eric Cantor. The parties have until August 2nd to raise the debt ceiling or face the possibility of a US default. The rating agencies have previously warned on this deadline. Given the headwinds the US economy faces and the potential for political gridlock could the euro benefit from its recent safe haven status despite the obvious flaws the currency currently faces?

Read more forex trading news on our forex blog.

By Cedric Welsch

About the Author

What would a very effective forex trading tactic bring to your fx trading business instantly?
Every type of forex trading strategy that is introduced must be scrutinized really well.

By Forex Mansion

The world of online forex trading is an amazing opportunity to turn a very substantial profit, however, a beginning trader who is just trying to get his foot in the door might be daunted by the possibility of loss during the early stages. Since trading confidence is one the most essential characteristics required to succeed in foreign exchange trading, many experienced traders recommend that beginners open a mini account.

A mini forex account is an account meant to increase the trader’s exposure to different types of trades while minimizing risk. A trader with a mini account will be able to trade multiple mini lots in place of one large standard lot. A lot is essentially a standardized quantity. In forex trading, the lot would be a standard minimum of a given currency to trade. Being able to trade in mini lots, therefore, reduces the minimum, giving the rookie trader an opportunity to get a feel for the market at reduced risk. Even for a trader who knows in advance that he or she has a lot of capitol to spare, nevertheless it is recommended to start with a mini account. Forex is not exactly the type of environment that one jumps in and learns to swim. There is no lack of online tutorials that one can read even before opening a mini account, and if one wants extra practice at no risk, one can even open practice accounts with certain firms that bear no more risk than a game of monopoly. One of the advantages of a mini account over a practice account is that the real financial risk (albeit reduced) will encourage the new trader to take it more seriously, as opposed to a practice account which can be forgotten about at no loss. During the training period of the mini account, the newcomer will learn the key traits needed to succeed: confidence, money management, emotional restraint, handling losses, handling gains, and more.

The strategies used and the skills required for forex mini trading are essentially the same as those required for the real McCoy; that is what makes mini trading such an effective training tool. One of the early stages of forex strategy is choosing a market. Most traders work in a specific market based typically on geopolitical criteria. The two overarching strategies in forex are long term trading and day trading. A trader looking for a more fast-paced day-to-day involvement will be more inclined towards day trading. For a day trader, it is essential to time the operating hours with those of the chosen market. One who chooses a more cool approach, that is to say, one who has the nerves to watch the daily volatility of the market without abandoning the predesigned strategy, would be fitting for long term investments. In the long term market, the immediate time zone synchronization is less relevant.

A fresh trader is liable to get swept up in the excitement of the 24-hour-a-day market. Therefore, it is important that before getting into the real trading one knows their limits. Just because trading is taking place all the time, doesn’t mean traders can’t sleep. First of all, a rested head is likely to make better decisions, and secondly, sometimes sleeping through some of the smaller, less important vacillations of a given market will enable the trader to see the bigger picture and buy or sell wisely.

In conclusion, no amount of reading can prepare someone for the world of forex as well as the actual experience of trading as provided by trying a forex mini account.

If you are are in the look out for the best forex brokers who can give you quality inputs about forex trading and forex mini trading, visit http://www.forexmansion.com .

About the Author

This article at forexminitrading.org contains strategies in forex mini trading to get the beginner one step closer to profitable forex trading.