The Greek crisis will continue to take focus. However there is a just as important parallel story in the market: The nervousness about the soft spot in growth.
The Senior Strategist Ib Fredslund Madsen tells us what to expect in the financial markets in the coming week.
Video courtesy of en.jyskebank.tv
Video courtesy of ForexCT – A leading Australian forex broker, liscensed by the Australian Securities & Investments Commission, offers the MetaTrader4 and PROfit Platform to retail traders. Other services include Segregated Accounts, Trading workshops, Tutorials, and Commodities trading.
Video courtesy of ForexCT – A leading Australian forex broker, liscensed by the Australian Securities & Investments Commission, offers the MetaTrader4 and PROfit Platform to retail traders. Other services include Segregated Accounts, Trading workshops, Tutorials, and Commodities trading.
By Cedric Welsch
Foreign currency may be the only way for you to trade. This is particularly true if you are a tourist or a businessman for a multinational company. Thus, you should know the currencies before you go to your next journey. Here are some of the currencies you will commonly meet:
Euros, Pounds and Francs
The euro is the currency of the eurozone, which consists of seventeen European Union members. The euro is one of the strongest currencies in the world, being used by most of the Old World and backed by so many treasuries that it is very hard to devalue. Despite this, some countries in the European Union still do not use the Euro. These countries are the UK, Switzerland, Sweden and Denmark. The most prominent of these currencies are the British Pound Sterling and the Swiss Franc. Both are reliable reserve currencies.
US Dollar
The US dollar has been the benchmark of international currencies since the Bretton Woods system was inaugurated. The US Dollar replaced gold as a standard since it is the strongest unit at that time. Even after the abolition of the Bretton Woods system, the dollar is still the prevalent unit of international trade. There are already chinks in the dollar armor, so to speak, and it is currently being devalued.
BRICS Currencies
BRICS stands for Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa. These countries are seen as the emergent powers in the world. Their currencies are gaining significance since they have agreed to trade in each others currencies. Their currencies are real, the ruble, the rupee, the renminbi and the rand, respectively. While these currencies are today seen as weaker, they may gain value as time passes by, and as these countries further develop and mature into full-blown economies.
The Won and the Yen
The won and the yen are the currencies of Korea and Japan, respectively. These two currencies should be given a close watch since these economies are extremely emergent and will be able to be an economic powerhouse. The problems of these currencies are their relative weakness to foreign currencies, due to the effects of inflation. In fact, the won is one of the worst in terms of inflation, with the smallest denomination being the ten won coin. The yen on the other hand is widely used as a reserve currency and is very stable with regards to its value. However, the units are very inflated.
Several distinguished trading info sources bring highly factual forex news on a regular continual basis. Certain numbers of the so called forex scams are still existing in the modern world of trading.
By Dezan Shira
Though Taiwan entered the Indian market later than the Japanese and Koreans, it has still managed to attain an unbelievably high rate of growth. With its fast growing economy, India is witnessing a flow in demand for home appliances and Information communication and technology (ICT) products and services. Furthermore, the Indian government is eager to expand the hardware market to match the nation’s advances in software. This opens up many opportunities for strengthening the ties between the two countries as Taiwan’s relative strength in hardware could be meshed with India’s in software. This joint combination up of software and hardware could take place in wireless networks, energy (LED, green power), medical electronics (distant healthcare, equipment), digital (electronic government, virtual classroom) and auto electronics.
On the global map
India is the 13th largest export market for Taiwan. India ranks higher, or has surpassed the UK, Australia, Italy, Canada, France, Brazil and Russia, and offers much better trade growth than these other trade associates. According to a report by the Economist Intelligence Unit, India will exceed China to become the world’s fastest growing economy by 2018. In adding up, the World Economic Outlook report by the International Monetary Fund estimates India’s economic growth rate to be 7 percent, way above than the 2.1 percent of the developed countries. The report ranked India as the world’s second largest market. India and China, as per the report, are the two major engines for global economic growth.
India has become a significant market for Taiwan. Although Taiwan entered the Indian market later than the Japanese and Koreans, it has still managed to achieve an incredible high rate of growth (59 percent and 28 percent in 2007 and 2008, respectively).
Key industry sectors between India and Taiwan
PC and peripherals
– Electronic components and finished products are the potency of Taiwanese manufacturers in tapping the Indian market.
– With a 10.4 percent market share, Taiwanese technology firm Acer became Indian’s third largest PC vendor in the second half of 2009, next to HP and Dell. Acer also expanded its product line of servers and PCs to meet its competitors head on.
3G mobile equipment and phones
– Indian government auctioned licenses for 3G mobile communications in April and lit the 3G business opportunity.
– Taiwan’s HTC Corporation and India’s Bharti Airtel launched 3G-compatible mobile phones.
– Inventec, a Taiwan-based original design manufacturer, joined hands with Reliance Communications to launch a CDMA mobile phone. The company is upbeat towards exploring new forecast in the Indian market.
LEDs
– LEDs or light-emitting diodes hold many advantages over conventional light sources. LEDs are extremely efficient, come in smaller sizes, and also offer lower energy expenditure and longer lifetime. The list of LED applications keeps on growing. Besides the applications for displays and traffic signals, the market for lighting and mobile electronics just keeps increasing. With the rise in optical networks and infrared wireless communications, the LED industry promises vast potential.
– Taiwan is the major global manufacture base for HB (high-brightness) LED. Global LED industry production comes to $50 million with a 5 percent growth rate. Taiwan has been ranked the world’s second best market in HB LED production, next to Japan.
To read the rest of this article about doing business in India and Taiwan, visit India-Briefing.com, an India business news website.
The site was established by Chris Devonshire-Ellis.
The EUR was able to hold its recent price against the US dollar as regional investors battled over the direction of the 17-nation common currency. The push and pull between bears and bulls was mostly even this morning as the rumor mill chewed on the speculative reports that Greece had already secured a new financial aid package. With today’s ECOFIN meetings getting started, news surrounding Greece’s bailout should surface in the near future leading to major swings in currency values this week.
The US dollar opened this week moderately weaker versus the euro as traders appear to have continued nursing wounds from last week’s dizzying sessions. The result has been for the EUR/USD to come within reach of 1.4300 as of this morning. Against the pound, the greenback held close to 1.6150 after a short upward move during the early Asian session, though bullishness in Britain has generated pressure beneath the Cable in anticipation of an uptick.
Last week’s market data was enough to bring the EUR crashing down against a number of its currency rivals with the USD gaining the most from the turmoil. American economic data was only slightly better, however, as most analysts considered US fundamentals soft considering the shift. Inflationary data out of the United States last week was bullish; whether it is enough to force an adjustment in interest rates is another matter. The Fed has made it rather apparent that interest rates will remain where they are for the time being.
As for today, forex traders appear to be anticipating a thin trading day with only minor news coming out of Europe, Great Britain and Japan. The United States will be absent from today’s calendar, but the euro zone will be starting another session of the Economic and Financial Affairs Council (ECOFIN) in Brussels. Greek debt concerns appear to be on the top of the agenda and many investors are speculating that another round of financing is on the way which could help the EUR push back strongly against the USD.
The euro held steady versus the US dollar this morning, with a price of 1.4250 acting as support. Speculation about a possible round of financing for Greece is coming into view as favorable, but the rapidity of a response being formed to handle regional debt woes have pulled the euro sharply lower since early last week. The EUR has held modestly steady versus many other currencies, but its primary counterpart was seen gouging the common currency heavily towards last week’s closing.
The EUR was able to hold its recent price against the US dollar as regional investors battled over the direction of the 17-nation common currency. The push and pull between bears and bulls was mostly even as the rumor mill chewed on the speculative reports that Greece had already secured a new financial aid package. With today’s ECOFIN meetings getting started, news surrounding Greece’s bailout should surface in the near future.
As for today, the euro zone will be publishing its Current Account with expectations for a widening of its regional deficit. Germany will also be publishing its PPI data with forecasters expecting very weak growth of about 0.2%. If inflationary pressures fall short of what’s expected, the ECB may end up failing on its promise to deliver a rate adjustment in the months ahead. The chance for a bearish euro could also grow if Greece’s financial aid isn’t delivered soon. Traders appear anxious ahead of this week’s market news as a result.
The Japanese yen (JPY) has been trading with somewhat mixed results since early last week, with gains made against several currencies and losses elsewhere. After a week of ups and downs, the Japanese yen appears set to make gains today as investors seek safety from recent turmoil and as the Bank of Japan (BOJ) published a report this morning which could help the island economy make gains. The dominant stance of risk aversion overarching last week’s trading environment has many traders moving towards the yen against the higher yielding currencies like the euro and British pound.
The USD/JPY was seen trading somewhat lower this morning, finding resistance near 80.60 on Friday and moving down towards the intervention level of 80.00 at today’s opening Asian sessions. Japan’s trade balance report was published this morning and revealed a modest uptick which may help the island currency in today’s market hours. Market news released out of Europe today will likely be the driving force behind JPY values, though, and traders would be wise to watch the comments emerging from the latest round of ECOFIN meetings to determine whether risk aversion will again gain predominance in this week’s market.
Oil prices fell hard this morning with $92 a barrel coming easily into view. US oil stockpiles dropped over 3 million barrels last week which appears to have failed to support the price of the black gold. Speculative reports of unilateral action by Saudi Arabia to boost production have many investors going short on physical assets. Diminishing demand by the manufacturing and industrial sectors of multiple economies may also be adding to the weight oil prices are bearing this week.
With today’s steady downwards movement, traders appear likely to see oil reaching a support line early this week. Whether oil traders decide to lift oil prices from a buy-in on physical assets, or whether they decide to pull away from the black gold out of a perceived global oversupply, is a point traders will bear witness to this week. Such sharp downward price action, however, is typically met with staunch resistance as the new price gets tested. We should see news from today’s ECOFIN meetings generating tension among risk sensitive traders which may cause large swings in and out of commodities.
Last week’s failure of the pair to close below the 100-day moving average should not dismay euro shorts. The late in the week rally failed to move above the 20-day moving average which may induce some traders to sell into any euro gains. Both monthly and weekly stochastics have turned lower and point to potential declines. Support is found at 1.4075 followed by the May low at 1.3970. The 200-day moving average may be a likely target and below that the rising trend line from the May 2010 low comes in this week at 1.3610. Resistance is found at Friday’s high of 1.4340 followed by 1.4500 and the early June high of 1.4690.
Cable is on the verge of breaking the neckline of a head and shoulders top which comes in today at 1.6120. A breach at this level and a measured move from the chart pattern could take the GBP/USD lower to 1.5370. The likeliest target on the charts is the December low at 1.5350. On the way lower cable could encounter support at the May low of 1.6050 and the March low at 1.5940. To the upside the pair may see resistance at last week’s high at 1.6440 as well as 1.6550 off of the May high.
The pair failed to establish a beachhead above the 81 yen level and proceeded to fall. This level will serve as initial resistance followed by the May 31st high at 81.75 followed by 82.20 and 82.57. Falling daily stochastics hint at further declines. Support comes in at the May low of 79.50 followed by the all-time low at 76.11.
The USD/CHF rose to the May support which has turned into a resistance level at 0.8550, a phenomenon which often occurs in technical analysis. A break higher would run into the 50-day moving average which coincides with the falling trend line off of the February high at 0.8640. This may offer traders a good level to enter short into the long term downtrend. Additional resistance is located at the mid-May low at 0.8750 and the May high of 0.8950. To the downside the all-time low could be supportive at 0.8325.
Spot crude oil prices have broken out to the downside from a triangle consolidation pattern and are currently testing the rising trend line from the August low which comes in today at $92.80. Forex traders should note this level carries additional significance as it coincides with the support off of the January highs. A solid close below this level would shift momentum to the downside with the next significant support located at the mid-February low at $83.75.
Forex Market Analysis provided by ForexYard.
© 2006 by FxYard Ltd
Disclaimer: Trading Foreign Exchange carries a high level of risk and may not be suitable for all investors. There is a possibility that you could sustain a loss of all of your investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with Foreign Exchange trading.
Contributor Article:
By Dezan Shira
The number of patents approved for Indian nationals is less in number than it is to foreigners, according to statistics released by the Indian government. The number of patents granted to Indian applicants was 17 percent in 2009-10. So, of the 7,486 patents approved last year, the Indian contribution was only 1,272 with the rest belonging to overseas players.
Government officials have said that a new framework and fundamental changes needs to be done to help promote Indian innovation. In the meantime, India’s Industry Ministry has proposed a discussion paper to scrutinize the feasibility of introducing utility models into the intellectual property rights regime. Utility models are a framework for providing limited protection to those innovations, which may not meet the standards of the Patents Act and yet are commercially exploitable and socially relevant. The patent shield for the home-grown products will be officially called the “Utility Models.” Such a practice is common in 55 countries like China, Japan and Germany.
Reason
One of the reasons for low patenting activity could be a lack of responsiveness about IPR and also absence of institutional systems. Patents are not the only measure of innovations as many innovations may not be patentable because the criteria of novelty, inventiveness and usefulness are not fulfilled. There may be other constraints originating from agreements on technology transfer which do not allow patenting, but patents do help in differentiating between a more innovative firm and a less innovative firm.
India’s patent policy highlighted balancing developmental concerns with the need for promoting originality. India analyzed patents as a device for economic development and limited the scope and term of patents.
Patent policy has a long narration in India going back to 1856, but the genuine awareness of policymakers towards patents began right after Independence. Two specialist committees were set up in independent India to learn patents and offer propositions on the kind of patent scheme that India should execute. These committees conducted an extensive survey on patents in India.
The Patent Enquiry Committee (1948-50) stated that, “the Indian patent system has failed in its main purpose, namely to stimulate inventions among Indians and to encourage the development and exploitation of new inventions for industrial purposes in the country so as to secure the benefits thereof to the largest section of the public.”
The second committee known as the Ayyangar Committee (1957-59) noted that foreign patentees were acquiring patents not “in the interests of the economy of the country granting the patent or with a view to manufacture there but with the object of protecting an export market from competition from rival manufacturers particularly those in other parts of the world.” As a result India “is divested of getting, in many cases, goods…at cheaper prices from alternative sources because of the patent protection granted in India.” The reports ended that foreigners held 80-90 percent of the patents in India and were exploiting the system to achieve monopolistic control of the market.
The patent law of 1970 (the current law) restricts the field of patentability, only grants process and not product patents in food, pharmaceutical and chemical fields, restricts the term of patents and has an involved system of licenses to ensure that patents are worked in India. The act found support among domestic firms and various political parties in India.
As one of the “BRIC” countries (the others being Brazil, Russia and China), India has practiced positive changes in both its market size and technological capabilities in recent years. As a result, overseas patent applications filed in India have amplified as more applicants identify its potential as a manufacturing and consumer center.
It is generally whispered that the 2005 amendments were made mainly due to international pressure from organizations such as the World Trade Organization. The new law, amending India’s 1970 Patent Act, affects everything from electronics to software to medicines, and has been expected for years as a stipulation for India to join the World Trade Organization. However, many of India’s innovative companies have welcomed the stronger patent protections saying that these changes have made India more aggressive on the global scale and will generate further investment and innovation in India. Therefore, with stronger patent protection, more multinational corporations have tapped India’s relatively inexpensive engineers, scientists and computer programmers for product design, drug development and clinical testing. In fact, multinational corporations such as General Motors, Microsoft and Nokia already have research facilities in India.
As India opens its markets and its companies venture abroad, companies are seeking to ensure that they profit from their own innovations. The list of top applicants in 2004 shows the importance of patents in global competition. Among the top applicants are Sony, Procter & Gamble and DaimlerChrysler AG – all with more than approximately 300 applications each last year. From the Indian side, the top applicants include Dr. Reddy’s Laboratories and Ranbaxy Laboratories – both of which have more than doubled their research and development spending to about 10 percent of revenue.
It also states that India is no longer a protective nation about its domestics companies, but instead a country with a global competitive mindset where each company has an equal chance to succeed.
This article about India business was written for India-Briefing.com, which is contributed to by Dezan Shira & Associates.
Dezan Shira helps companies do business in India, China and Vietnam, maintaining accountants in Hong Kong and other major cities in Asia.
By Forex Mansion
Technical analysis is a necessary part of being a solid Forex trader, one must be able to analyze and evaluate currency trading charts well. One of the first ways to understand looking at currency trading charts is through a comprehension of moving averages. These averages make a line through the medium price in a certain time frame to make the price changes a more even line. This leveling of price data directly translates to a trend following indicator.
Although this indicator is an excellent way to understand the current direction of a specific currency, what moving averages do not attempt to do is make any predictions. The purpose of this indicator is to base data analysis on past prices (known as the “lag”) in efforts to negate the effects of “chance occurrences” and noisy data outliers. Finally, this chart is known as being the base from which other technical indicators take life and become possible. Among the other indicators that rely on the moving averages charts are:
• McClellan Oscillator
• MACD
• Bollinger Bands
Moving average indicators are broken down into two separate types: Simple Moving Average and Exponential Moving Average. Both of these indicators attempt to shows the course and track of trends and related resistance levels. An excellent graph example with explanation can be found at the Street Authority site.
1. Simple Moving Average. This average indicator is, as its name, fairly easy to understand. By looking at a specific period or periods of time, this indicator shows the average price of a certain currency. Simply put, a 10-day SMA is the average of the closing prices for each of those 10 days. The key to this indicator is that with each new closing price, the least recent closing price is dropped from being included in the data, thereby showing the updated average price of a specific currency. The following shows the 10-day SMA formula:
• Daily Closing prices: 2,3,4,5,6,7,8,9,10,11,12,13,14
• Day 1 of SMA: (2+3+4+5+6+7+8+9+10+11)/10 = 6.5
• Day 2 of SMA: (3+4+5+6+7+8+9+10+11+12)/10 = 7.5
• Day 3 of SMA: (4+5+6+7+8+9+10+11+12+13)/10 = 8.5
The intention is not to give a snapshot of where the currency price might be heading, but rather where the currency is now in relation to a specific historical time frame.
2. Exponential Moving Average. This moving average takes the base of the SMA and tries to negate the effects of the “lag” of historical prices for the currency and gives more value to recent prices. After calculating the SMA, which will serve as the previous period’s first EMA. Then, the weighing multiplier had to be calculated, and finally, the actually EMA is calculated. The following example is for calculating a 5-day EMA.
• SMA is calculated
• Multiplier is calculated by dividing the time period (5) plus 1 in half:
(2/5+1) = .3333
• EMA is calculated: (Closing Price – Previous Day EMA) x Multiplier + Previous Day EMA
The intention is to give an accurate weighting to the most recent price, which is why the weighting for a shorter period will be greater than a longer period. The more figures included in each trend, the less important each specific closing price is to understanding the day trading data trending.
For more information on forex trading, please check http://www.forexmansion.com.
EUR/USD
Last week’s failure of the pair to close below the 100-day moving average should not dismay euro shorts. The late in the week rally failed to move above the 20-day moving average which may induce some traders to sell into any euro gains. Both monthly and weekly stochastics have turned lower and point to potential declines. Support is found at 1.4075 followed by the May low at 1.3970. The 200-day moving average may be a likely target and below that the rising trend line from the May 2010 low comes in this week at 1.3610. Resistance is found at Friday’s high of 1.4340 followed by 1.4500 and the early June high of 1.4690.
GBP/USD
Cable is on the verge of breaking the neckline of a head and shoulders top which comes in today at 1.6120. A breach at this level and a measured move from the chart pattern could take the GBP/USD lower to 1.5370. The likeliest target on the charts is the December low at 1.5350. On the way lower cable could encounter support at the May low of 1.6050 and the March low at 1.5940. To the upside the pair may see resistance at last week’s high at 1.6440 as well as 1.6550 off of the May high.
USD/JPY
The pair failed to establish a beachhead above the 81 yen level and proceeded to fall. This level will serve as initial resistance followed by the May 31st high at 81.75 followed by 82.20 and 82.57. Falling daily stochastics hint at further declines. Support comes in at the May low of 79.50 followed by the all-time low at 76.11.
USD/CHF
The USD/CHF rose to the May support which has turned into a resistance level at 0.8550, a phenomenon which often occurs in technical analysis. A break higher would run into the 50-day moving average which coincides with the falling trend line off of the February high at 0.8640. This may offer traders a good level to enter short into the long term downtrend. Additional resistance is located at the mid-May low at 0.8750 and the May high of 0.8950. To the downside the all-time low could be supportive at 0.8325.
Read more forex trading news on our forex blog.
Contributor Article:
Ever since China announced to the world that there will be some major change in their exchange rate policy in July 2005, it became a topic for debate. Though this, China has attracted the attention of the major economic players in the world, and has been put under scrutiny ever since.
People tend to forget that the China exchange rate policy is the one responsible in making China an economic power in the future. There are many economists that believe that the China Import / Export has yet to face difficulties from its policy and that the Yuan, the Chinese currency will also depreciate and this speculation has been enforced by the decrease of China Imports before. But when China showed improvement in their imports by December 2009, economists change their statements and speculated that China may look ahead for good times, again due to their rate policy. And with the Chinese governments promise to keep the Yuan stable to help the struggling exports of the country, that speculation was enforced.
Despite all that, China has been and is still criticized by other world economies and has been facing challenges with regards to their policy. The Chinese Government today is facing the pressure to appreciate the value of Yuan. When that happens, it will not only affect China – that is in a good way – it will also affect the economy of other countries and the whole world! China realizes that it is importance in flexibility and the appreciation of the Exchange Rate in China but if their government will continue to ignore the pressure the world is imposing upon its shoulders, and then it may result to the rejection of its exports by the developed countries. The worlds demand on China to change their policy will have great benefits and will impact not only China but also the world.
Brendan Elias and Alex Ryan have been teaching individuals how to import from China in their free 30 day video training series. Visit our website to sign up to this free training. You will discover how to source products from China, contact factories, negotiate to get the best price and much much more. http://chinaimportformula.com.au/
