The greenback was once again on its back foot following Ben Bernake’s speech yesterday which stressed the Fed’s commitment to keep inflation low as well as a loose US monetary policy in the mid-term. Unsurprisingly the Fed chief failed to hint at a possible QEIII which put the S&P 500 back in the red for the fifth consecutive trading session and had the USD trading on its lows at the NY close. The decline in both equities and the US dollar highlights the pullback in risk aversion by global portfolio managers following the disappointing string of US economic data. For the remainder of the week traders will shift their attention to the glut of central bank meetings both in the G-10 (NZD, GBP, EUR) and in the emerging markets (BRL, PLN, IDR, KRW).
Today’s Economic Data Releases:
EUR – German Industrial Production – 10:00 GMT
Expectations: 0.1%. Previous: 0.7%.
Earlier today the German trade balance fell back from previous levels though exports rose a healthy 13.4% from April 2010. As such a bit of a slowdown could be seen from the industrial numbers today. However, market participants may be tentative leading up to tomorrow’s ECB policy meeting. EUR/USD resistance comes in near 1.4760 off of the late April/early May lows and the previous trend line from the January to May move. Support is found at 1.4450.
Oil – Crude Oil Inventories – 14:30 GMT
Expectations: -1.4M. Previous: 2.9M.
The disappointing US economic data continues to weigh on spot crude oil prices as the commodity has been consolidating in a triangle chart pattern for the past month and are currently testing the lower leg of the pattern at $97.25. A breach here and the commodity perhaps would find support at $96.30 followed by the early May low at $94.70. Beyond this level the next support is located at the January highs near $93.00.
USD – Beige Book – 18:00 GMT
On the heels of last week’s disappointing non-farm payrolls data economists will be looking for further signs of a slowdown in the various regions as reported by the Federal Reserve. This would likely lead to further dollar selling.
NZD – Official Cash Rate and RBNZ Rate Statement – 21:00 GMT
Expectations: 2.50%. Previous: 2.50%.
Consensus forecasts are for the Reserve Bank of New Zealand to keep interest rates at their current levels as to continue to aid the economic recovery from two earlier earthquakes. However, economists are expecting the RBNZ to convey a more hawkish policy stance given the rising inflation expectations in the business community and a strong trade surplus. A break of the resistance 0.8260 and the NZD/USD may have the scope to 0.8500.
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