The ECB May Have The Opportunity To Tackle Greece Debt Restructuring

Officials of the European Central Bank may have tackle Greece debt restructuring, policy makers even when warned that such a step could trigger the beginning of a “sad story.” 

The officials of Germany and France say the ECB will no longer receive debt Greece related collateral in money market operations, forcing the country to default, Regulation ECB less clear and just say that the “justifiable” if officials deem it necessary. The rhetoric of ECB will probably be a lot of forcing Greece to improve the budget cuts, the economists Citigroup Inc. and Deutsche Bank AG said. 

“Without warning the ECB, Greece will not be given additional action announcement,” said Juergen Michels, Chief Economist at Citigroup in the euro zone. “The ECB indicates the eligibility requirements in rules guarantee that they can stretch everything pretty much.” 

European policy makers to find ways to restore investor confidence to the concerns of increased that Greece will not be able to pay its debts after the bailout € 110 billion ($ 155 billion) last year. While the Minister of finance who consider options such as extending the maturity, the ECB policy makers argue that such measures could damage Greece and mess up the banking system of other countries in the euro area. 

Great Impact 

“The Restructuring is not a solution, it’s a sad story,” said a member of the Board of the ECB Christian Noyer on 24 May. His partner in Spain, Jose Manuel Gonzalez-Paramo said last month those steps would “very likely” to have systemic consequences “very probably more ruined from” the collapse of Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc. in September 2008. 

Action Of Greece 

The Government of Greece this week to support the sales plan for accelerated and asset package of budget cuts in an effort to meet the requirements for the fifth phase of the bailout by the Treaty with the European Union, IMF and the ECB. 

The ECB can still find room for manoeuvre where the bond market sell-off in Greece intensified on concerns that more austerity measures will not be enough to counteract the default. 

The Vienna Initiative 

One option for the ECB likely to embrace the proposal Vienna Initiative which is disusulkan by the economic and monetary Commissioner, Olli Rehn, which aims to persuade creditors to buy new bonds of the Government of Greece maturity which is near. 

Almost half of the 23 members of the Governing Council of the ECB currently supports the idea, according to someone who is familiar with the matter, who refused to identify himself because the discussion about this secret. 

“Considering all the options being discussed, this probably is one way that the ECB can be in line with,” said Citigroup Michels.

 

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FX Technical Analysis – AUD/NZD – More Downward Pressure

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Following today’s sharp appreciation ofthe New Zealand dollar the AUD/NZD made a breach below a key support level.

Expanding on this morning’s Wild Card selection from the FOREXYARD Daily Analysis, the AUD/NZD has hastily fallen from its early May high and this morning the pair has moved below the significant 1.3190 support level from the mid-April low. The AUD/NZD briefly fell below the psychological support level of 1.3100 but was unable to hold this mark after the European open.

Downward pressure is building on the pair after the breach and the selling may continue. Initial support is found at the trend line off of the November and January lows which comes in today at 1.3015. A breach here and the AUD/NZD would target a range between the January pivot at 1.2775 and 1.2470, the latter being the 61.8% retracement level from the 2010 low to the May 2011 high. The November low at 1.2640 would be a last stand for the Aussie dollar.

To the upside, the mid-April low will now switch from support to the first resistance level followed by the mid-May low at 1.3350. The pivots from May and March also deserve a mention at 1.3700 and 1.3790 respectively.

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AUDNZD_Daily

Stronger Euro Related Reports That China Interested in Buying a European Bonds

The euro strengthened against the dollar and the yen on speculation that China will buy European bonds, although the Greek debt crisis threatening economic recovery in the region. 

The single currency to get a boost after the Financial Times reported that Chief Executive Facilities Financial Stability in Europe (EFSF), Klaus Regling has told investors in Asia, including Chinese, Portuguese bailout will buy bonds when EFSF start selling them in June. 

“Comments from the head EFSF that China is clearly interested in buying the issuance of bonds next month is to provide support for the euro,” said Greg Gibbs, a currency strategist at Royal Bank of Scotland Group Plc in Sydney. 

The euro rose to $ 1.4146 at 10:16 am in Tokyo from $ 1.4088 in New York yesterday. The euro had fallen as low as $ 1.3970 on May 23. The single currency rose 0.4 percent to 115.96 yen. The dollar traded at 81.98 yen from 81.97 yen. 

Asian investors, including the Chinese government, could become “a strong proportion” of the Portuguese bailout bond buyers, told the Financial Times that Regling told reporters yesterday.

 

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USD: The U.s. Dollar Has Not Been So Attractive To Investors

In the early hours earlier had been a day that is active in the financial markets with the EUR/USD moves in and out of negative territory. At the beginning of trading session New York, the dollar traded higher against most major currencies but at the end of the session, the greenback eventually gave up most of the profit rise was caused by the company. 

The restoration of its visible on all major currency pairs with the exception of USD/CHF, and USD/JPY remains unchanged for almost all day. UPS and downs of prices on the forex market shows that traders are still very worried about the problem in Greece. 

The situation in Europe continued to make investors anxious but at the same time, the prospects for the US economy is not too bright, that explains why investors aren’t rushing to move into u.s. dollars. 

Secretary of the Treasury Geithner shows, the u.s. economy is in a very difficult position and need a few more years before the restoration of full disektor housing. 

The unemployment rate will also be down too slow for the assessment of most people which is another way to say that the recovery might be sluggish speed continues for some time. 

The President of the Fed’s Kocherlakota, which is the owner of the voice on the FOMC seems to agree. He reduced his estimate for growth in the us for about 3 percent from 3-3.5 percent and he predicted the unemployment rate remained close to 8.5 percent, up from previous estimates. 

However, despite the revision down to growth, he still believes that the central bank to raise interest rates until the end of the year because 50bp inflation core. This view was not shared by other Fed officials or market that expect an increase in interest rates by the Federal Reserve to do in the first quarter of 2011. 

Part of the reason is because u.s. economic data continues to be vulnerable to pressure, describe how weak recovery AS fact. 

Orders for durable goods down 3.6 percent in April, the worst in six months. Excluding transportation orders, demand for the goods in the last 3 years down 1.5 percent. Durable goods orders increased significantly in the month of March and the latest data reflected a decrease in kembalai. 

Supply chain disruptions from Japan also contributed to the decline in demand, it is the speed of slow recovery of the US that has made consumers and businesses are reluctant to pull out of the budget. 

The US dollar barely reacted to the durable goods report shows that investors have been immune to the weaker U.S. data. Report of the second GDP Q1 today will be released and growth is expected to be revised upward 1.8-2.2 percent due to stronger consumer spending. Unfortunately even with the upward revision, growth in the first quarter is expected to slow down from growth of 3.1 per cent experienced in the fourth quarter of last year.

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EUR/USD Analysis-May 26,2011

Yesterday: Open 1.4103 High 1.4118 Low 1.4013 Close 1.4083 : Testing to 1.4201, Potential Amendments Sharply 

Since trading began yesterday’s Asian session, the euro has decreased by about 90 pips. But before the early European session, re-Euro try to rebound to the highest level of daily yesterday at 1.4118. On the whole movement of Euro yesterday still within normal limits in the range of 100 pips. 

Currently, the Euro looks bullish. 

The focus of today’s economic data for the EUR / USD is:

1. EUR Germany Import Prices m/m  
2. EUR ECB President Trichet Speaks

20110526_eur 

If the price continues to increase opportunities towards 1.4256 and 1.4201 resistance level. 

Conversely if the decline continues, the price opened up opportunities leading to the level of 1.4000 and 1.4058. 

Prices shown on the graph H1 line MA05 and MA10 strong bullish conditions. 

While the Stochastic indicator indicates there are still bullish opportunities are limited.

 

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Forex Economic Calendar: May 26, 2011

By CountingPips.com

Economic News Releases –  GMT Time

00:30 Australia House Affordability
06:00 Switzerland Trade Balance
06:00 Switzerland Imports / Exports
09:20 Europe Trichet Speech
12:30 United States GDP Report
12:30 United States Personal Consumption
12:30 United States Jobless Claims
13:45 United States Consumer Comfort Index
23:01 United Kingdom GfK Consumer Confidence
23:00 Japan Consumer Price Index
23:50 Japan Retail Trade

Economic Calendar

GBPUSD broke above trend line

GBPUSD broke above the trend line from 1.6516 to 1.6302, suggesting that a cycle bottom had been formed at 1.6059 on 4-hour chart. Now the pair is facing 1.6302 resistance, a break above this level will confirm that the downward move from 1.6745 had completed at 1.6059 already, then the following upward movement could bring price back to 1.6400-1.6500 area. However, as long as 1.6302 resistance holds, the bounce from 1.6059 is treated as consolidation of downtrend, and another fall to 1.6000 is still possible.

gbpusd

Daily Forex Forecast

Are You Making Money From Soaring Global Energy Demand?

Energy is a topic that dominates the news.

We’re constantly hearing about rising prices at the gasoline pumps… the ongoing global war for oil… and the push for cleaner, greener technologies.

Thanks to the soaring demand for new energy sources – fueled by growth in emerging markets – we’re entering a historic era for energy investments.

Now with all of that said… let me ask you a simple question:

Without visiting wind farms or getting a degree in geology, how is it possible for an individual investor to make money from this extraordinary trend?

After all – if you’re like me, I’m sure you know plenty of people who have lost money by “gambling” on individual energy stocks.

Several years ago, I worked with someone – an incredibly bright guy, Paul K. – who lost thousands of dollars on speculative energy investments back in the early ’90s. It wasn’t so much that Paul was a bad investor… he just kept chasing the next big oil discovery.

It used to be that making big money in energy was a bit like playing the lottery.

You’d hear about an exploration company that had a good story… you’d plunk down your hard-earned cash… and you’d hope they struck oil.

Every once in a while – at a cocktail party, most likely – you might hear a story from someone who made a killing from an oil strike.

Of course, it was much more common to hear stories about investments that lost money.

But those days are over.

Thanks to a relatively new investment vehicle, you can harness the power of energy investing and make “speculator-sized profits” without visiting a single drilling site.

Let me show you what I mean.

Thanks to the combination of two fundamental shifts, it’s possible for individual investors to take enormous stakes in very targeted, specific energy investments… while at the same time limiting their risk.

The first of these fundamental shifts is in the global demand for energy.

Thanks to the explosion in energy demand from countries like Brazil, Russia, India, and China, our global energy resources are being quickly depleted.

And concern over the geopolitical dangers associated with Middle Eastern oil – and the push for clean energy technologies – has helped change the energy landscape in a huge way.

Couple this explosion in energy demand with the second fundamental shift – the change in how investors can profit from specific “pockets” of the market – and you have a true game-changer.

Not that long ago, institutional investors had a clear advantage over the little guy when it came to making money in the markets.

That’s because – when their research showed that a particular sector was about to “pop” – they could simply gobble up every stock in that sector.

Individuals like you and me didn’t have the resources to do something like that. So we were left to grab a handful of companies and hope for the best.

But that’s all changed, thanks to the invention of the ultimate investor’s “power tool”: Exchange Traded Funds (ETFs).

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Now… you might think of an ETF as simply a way to invest in a particular index, like the NASDAQ or the S&P 500.

But the explosion in growth of ETFs over the last five years has created a world of new opportunities… though only a small number of individual investors have figured out how to take full advantage.

What’s more – ETFs are the perfect vehicle to help individual investors capitalize on the fundamental shift in our energy landscape.

Now the easiest thing an investor could do would be to invest in a broad-based ETF – like the Energy Select Sector ETF (NYSE: XLE) – that will provide solid returns as the energy sector heats up.

But – if you know where to look – greater profits are possible.

As you know, investing in exploration companies can be a real crapshoot.

Even the successful companies tend to come up empty more often than not… and that can be devastating to an individual investor.

But with carefully selected ETFs, you can take advantage of specific pockets of the energy market.

So long as you’re plugged in to the most important trends, this can be an exceptionally powerful tool.

If, for example, the supply-demand picture for natural gas presents an opportunity… you can invest in an ETF that focuses on the natural gas markets.

If you see that soaring demand for alternative energy will translate into life-altering profits for some companies – but you’re not sure which company will “pop” first – you can invest in ETFs that are devoted to specific niches of the alternative energy market.

In the last six months alone, you could have made 54% profits from a global energy ETF… 59.1% profits from a Canada-based natural gas ETF… and 31.4% profits from a solar energy ETF.

And I’m sure it’s possible that you could have made more by investing in specific companies that struck it rich during that time.

But I also know that I wouldn’t want the risk associated with the old “needle-in-a-haystack” approach to energy investing.

That approach didn’t work for my friend, Paul K. – and the truth is, it’s an approach that works for only a very small number of individuals.

But thanks to the power of ETFs – in particular, the explosion in energy-focused ETFs – it’s now possible for you to exploit the unprecedented global demand for energy without the risk of lottery-style investing.

Now it’s worth remembering that energy, like all investments, is subject to short-term pullbacks from time to time.

But those pullbacks are very small bumps in the road, as global demand for energy continues to soar. And the liquidity and diversification that ETFs provide help minimize your exposure.

In my new advisory service – ETF Energy Trader – I show you how you can take advantage of where the energy market will “pop” next by putting carefully-selected ETFs to work for you.

When used properly, ETFs allow you to actively trade the historic global shift in energy demand while, at the same time, carefully managing your downside risk.

[Ed. Note: R.J. Sterling is a writer and financial publisher with more than two decades of experience bringing new ideas to investors. To learn more about his ETF Energy Trader service, click here now.]

About the Author

This article appears courtesy of Early To Rise, a free newsletter dedicated to creating wealth and success through inspiration and practical, proven advice. For a complimentary subscription, visit http://www.earlytorise.com.

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