Yesterday’s late bounce in the euro and silver continued this morning after German and French GDP numbers showed strong growth in the two largest EU economies. All eyes will now turn to US inflationary data that could show increased food and energy costs in the US economy.
EUR – German Preliminary GDP q/q – 6:00 GMT
Actual: 1.5%. Expectations: 0.9%. Previous: 0.4%.
Germany, the engine of the EU economy continues to fire on all cylinders with Q1 GDP easily surpassing market expectations. The euro continued to build on yesterday’s bounce higher near the 1.4150 support/38.2% Fibonacci retracement level from the January to May uptrend. While it is too early to call a bottom in the EUR/USD correction, a move above 1.4420 would be constructive. However, a decline below yesterday’s low would target 1.4020.
USD – Core CPI m/m – 12:30
Expectations: 0.2%. Previous: 0.1%.
Yesterday’s PPI m/m in March showed increased inflationary pressures both in the headline number and core data which fed into a renewed bout of USD selling. Today’s data release has the same possibility. Click here to read further about US inflationary growth in the FOREXYARD forex blog. The USD/CHF failed to move above the 0.8900 resistance level and formed a doji candlestick pattern, a potential signal for a halt in the upward correction. Support is found at 0.8800 followed by the swing low on the daily chart at 0.8550. To the upside, the 50-day moving average at 0.8950 could prove to be resistive as the pair hasn’t made a close above this level since mid-February.
USD – Preliminary UoM Consumer Sentiment
Expectations: 70. Previous: 69.8.
If yesterday’s retail sales report was any indication, the US consumer is spending more albeit slightly below economists’ forecasts. Stronger than expected consumer sentiment numbers would likely feed into USD selling as traders abandon safe haven bids for higher yielding assets and commodities. Silver prices made a move higher and perhaps put in a low yesterday, moving higher from the trend line rising off of the late August and January lows to close near its opening day price. Resistance comes in at $39.50 with support at the trend line near $32.30 followed by the pivot from early January at $31.20.