Video courtesy of ForexCT – A leading Australian forex broker, liscensed by the Australian Securities & Investments Commission, offers the MetaTrader4 and PROfit Platform to retail traders. Other services include Segregated Accounts, Trading workshops, Tutorials, and Commodities trading.
AUD/USD
Time: 07:00 Rate: 1.0330
Strategy: short
After reviewing the pair yesterday, the pair activated the entrance point trigger to short under 1.0380 and went to the first target at 1.0250.
Due to the fact that the trade is taken from an extreme point, the indicator CCI 50 will not go down under the level of 100 (blue) which indicates the momentum stop and we are still in an upward volatility, therefore, the stop should be kept in its original place – over the 1.0510.
Continuous potential trade
After arrival at the first target of 1.0250 the stop should be promoted to the entrance point.
Target 2: 1.0150.
As can be seen by the graph bellow:
AUD/JPY
Time: 07:00 Rate: 87.15
Strategy: short
Daily time frame
This pair also is situated after the continuous upward movement without retracement from 74.50 to 87.70 and arrived to 127.2% Fibonacci of the downward movement, therefore, we expect for a starting retracement in the support direction at 84.60 (red line) after which an option for a full retracement at 38.2% Fibonacci ( The price is currently at 82.670).
As can be seen by the graph bellow:
4 hour time frame
The pair broke down the uptrend line and checked it from bellow (see graph). The breakdown of 86.70 triggers short, a stop should be placed over the 200% if the retracement 88.70 to allow for the price an additional upward fluctuation after the strong bullish momentum in the daily time frame.
As can be seen by the graph bellow:
Potential Trade
Short in the breakdown of 86.70
Stop: 88.75
Target 84.60 (support area + 23.60 Fibonacci)
An additional target option: 82.670 (38.2% Fibonacci)
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Investors this week will continue to monitor the news out of Japan and Libya, along with key economic data and earnings reports. Good morning, Im Kristin Bianco, with the Week Ahead Market Report for April 4, 2011.
April 4 (Bloomberg) — Max Niederhofer, founder of Qwerly.com, talks about competition in social networking and Internet adveritising after Google Inc. said co-founder Larry Page is taking over as chief executive officer. He speaks with Maryam Nemazee on Bloomberg Television’s “The Pulse.”
I was starting to put on my bullish hat on Friday morning when out of the blue an ugly close has forced me to rethink my position. After viewing a few hundred charts, I have determined that while I am still leaning into higher prices at this point in time, I will not totally rule out a rollover on the S&P 500. In coming days the news flow will be extreme and headline risk will be everywhere we look. The S&P 500 has been able to deflect worry for quite some time now and in every case the resiliency is unquestionable.
However, we are nearing the beginning of another earnings season which will start in just a few weeks’ time. First quarter earnings for 2011 are going to be quite interesting and most analysts’ estimates are relatively challenging. Will the rubber hit the road into earnings? Are we about to see a double top play out into earnings, or is there going to be a breakout which will take us to the SPX 1,400 – 1,415 price level?
I know, I ask a lot of questions but quite frankly that is what is running through my head. The SPX is not out of the woods yet, and the price action on Friday indicated that there is some serious supply overhead and two key resistance levels to break through before the SPX gets back to clear blue skies overhead. That being said Chris Vermeulen has caught a nice part of the recent bounce with his subscribers. He does feel the market is about to get choppy but his analysis is pointing to overall higher prices in the coming weeks.
SPX illustrates the two key price levels:
In addition to the uncertainty that earnings season can bring, the primary reason why I am still leaning into a bullish move in the S&P 500 is the recent price action in the U.S. Dollar Index futures. The U.S. Dollar is scheduled to make its 3 year cycle low sometime this spring and the recent price action is indicative that the recent lows may not be the cycle lows. If the U.S. Dollar Index breaks down below recent lows, I would expect to see a nasty sell off.
The U.S. Dollar Index futures daily chart is shown below:
Whether readers believe that we are going to be in an inflationary environment or a deflationary environment is a topic for a different time, but the chart above is undeniable that recently the U.S. Dollar has declined in value and is exhibiting weak price action. Friday morning it looked as though the U.S. Dollar was going to rip higher, but by the end of the day sellers had stepped in and forced the U.S. Dollar into the red for the session. The price action on Friday highlighted the weakness in the U.S. Dollar and the high levels of overhead supply.
If the U.S. Dollar continues to weaken, in the short run I would view this as a positive for the S&P 500, crude oil, and precious metals. If the dollar breaks down to new lows, it should help buoy the S&P 500 and gold prices. Gold has been consolidating for nearly 6 months and a breakout higher from current price levels would make a trip to $1,500 an ounce very likely. I would not be surprised to see gold work even higher than $1,500 an ounce depending on how violent the selloff in the U.S. Dollar might be.
The weekly chart of gold futures is listed below:
I would think that most investors are aware that crude oil futures have been trading higher recently. On Friday oil prices climbed above recent resistance around the $107/barrel price level and reached new recent highs. Members that belong to my paid service enjoyed a relatively low risk options trade that we put on several weeks ago which involved selling cash secured naked puts on $USO. The trade was closed on Friday for a total gain of 85% of the premium that was sold. For long time readers, my stance on energy has been pretty obvious. In the longer term, energy prices almost have to go up as the world’s demand for energy increases while supplies remain flat.
I will likely get involved in another oil trade at some point in the future, but for right now I’m going to wait for a more prudent entry. Based on current price action, it would not surprise me to see crude oil futures test the $110 – $112 per barrel price range in the near future. If the $112/barrel price level is breached to the upside, a test of the $120/barrel price level will be likely.
The weekly chart of oil futures is listed below:
Weekend Trend Conclusion:
The S&P 500 is in an interesting place as far as the price action is concerned. With earnings season rapidly approaching and a possible break down in the U.S. Dollar Index likely, future price action is uncertain. I am leaning into the bullish camp at this point, but that could change rather quickly based on the price action later this week in both the S&P 500 and the U.S. Dollar Index. One thing worth mentioning is that if the U.S. Dollar Index were to bottom around these levels and a bounce higher transpired, it would put negative price pressure on most asset classes. The fact that price action in the U.S. Dollar Index has been weak lately makes me believe a break down is likely, but as most readers know Mr. Market offers few guarantees.
Assuming the U.S. Dollar breaks down, we should see the S&P 500, precious metals, and oil continue to work higher. My eyes are going to be watching the U.S. Dollar Index closely in coming days/weeks. If a breakdown transpires, the potential upside in precious metals and oil could be intense. Ultimately, I remain slightly bullish on stocks and extremely bullish on oil and precious metals. However, my entire thesis could change if the U.S. Dollar Index starts to firm up and begins to work higher. There are simply too many question marks surrounding price action to take on significant amounts of risk at this point in time.
Analysis & Opinions of:
J.W Jones – www.OptionsTradingSignals.com
Chris Vermeulen – www.TheGoldAndOilGuy.com
April 4 (Bloomberg) — Marie Diron, senior economic adviser to Ernst & Young, talks about the outlook for interest rates in the euro zone. She speaks with Maryam Nemazee on Bloomberg Television’s “The Pulse.”
By Russell Glaser
The GBP/USD is strengthening after the late March selling that followed the publication of the UK budget on March 23rd. Today’s stronger than expected construction data shows the market may be too pessimistic the British economy and the GBP/USD.
The British economy received some good news following the release of the construction PMI in Britain which came in at 55.4, a slight decline from last month’s result of 56.5. Economists had forecasted a decline to 54.7.
This brought strong bids to sterling. At the opening of the New York trading session the GBP/USD continued to recover to 1.6160 from its opening week price of 1.6110.
The much needed support for the British economy comes after a sell-off in the pound following a new high for the GBP/USD and the publication of the UK budget on March 23rd. After the budget release, the GBP sold off across the board despite rising 10-year gilt yields and falling short sterling futures have fallen. Thus, traders expect British interest rates to rise in the near term which should be a positive for sterling.
Looking at the GBP/USD, a sell-off occurred following the pair reaching a new high for 2011 at 1.6400 and the pair dropped as low as 1.5935 where the GBP/USD found support near the 100-day moving average (red line). To the downside, the 1.5870 retracement from the January to March move is a viable support, as well as the 200-day moving average (black line) at 1.5850 which could come into play and coincides with the rising trend line off of the May 2010 low.
As the GBP/USD continues to recover, the first resistance level is today’s high at 1.6180, followed by an initial target at the March high of 1.6400. A breach of this level would then set market players to target the November 2009 high at 1.6875.
Forex Market Analysis provided by ForexYard.
© 2006 by FxYard Ltd
Disclaimer: Trading Foreign Exchange carries a high level of risk and may not be suitable for all investors. There is a possibility that you could sustain a loss of all of your investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with Foreign Exchange trading.
Video courtesy of ForexCT – A leading Australian forex broker, liscensed by the Australian Securities & Investments Commission, offers the MetaTrader4 and PROfit Platform to retail traders. Other services include Segregated Accounts, Trading workshops, Tutorials, and Commodities trading.
Video courtesy of ForexCT – A leading Australian forex broker, liscensed by the Australian Securities & Investments Commission, offers the MetaTrader4 and PROfit Platform to retail traders. Other services include Segregated Accounts, Trading workshops, Tutorials, and Commodities trading.
By Cedric Welsch
Answering the question of when the best Forex trading hours are can be difficult since the answer is going to vary based on a trader’s favorite currency pairs. All action in the Forex markets is done with currency pairs, and since the time zones can vary greatly this means the best times to trade the U.S. Dollar (USD) could be far different from the ideal moment for dabbling with the Japanese Yen (JPY).
A general rule of thumb among many currency traders is that the more activity in a given market, the better a time it is to trade. This means that each nation’s currency experiences a nine hour window each day when their nation’s markets are open and busiest. That’s when the most trades are happening with a currency pair involving that currency because there’s more action to profit from. Going on Eastern Standard Time, this means the best frame to act on a U.S. Dollar based currency pair is from 8:00 a.m. to 5:00 p.m.
However, you also need to know when the markets for other nations are open compared to your time zone in order to work during optimal Forex trading times. So a trader living on the East Coast of the United States who wants to trade in the Yen needs to know that Japan’s markets are open from 7:00 p.m. to 4:00 a.m. in Eastern Standard Time. Sydney, home to Australia’s trading markets, opens at 5:00 p.m. EST to 2:00 a.m. EST and obviously Great Britain, New Zealand, and Switzerland will all have their own market hours as well.
Knowing the optimal hours for Forex currencies compared to your time zone is only the first step. For some pairs, there might be two markets that overlap. For example, New York City and London overlap four hours of each trading day, meaning that is an especially good time to look at the currency pair of the U.S. Dollar and the Great Britain Pound. These market overlaps can be the busiest trading times for both currencies, making it even more important for traders to jump into the frenzy.
At the end of the day, there’s little question that finding the best market times correlates directly with what pairs are being traded and when that nation’s normal trading hours are. This doesn’t mean that profit can’t be made during other times of the day, but by trading during the best Forex trading hours the chances of profiting increase.
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